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A criticism often brought up in many 1980s WW3 TLs is that by the mid to late 80s a Soviet conventional victory is implausible - that their troops lack morale and discipline, that their Warsaw Pact allies are on the verge of revolt, and that NATO's technological superiority outweighs any WARPACT numerical advantage.

With that in mind, what is the latest date that the USSR can secure a conventional victory in World War III - defined here as controlling Europe up to the French border and keeping their own borders secure in the East?

Scenario 1 assumes no China combat role; Scenario 2 does. Assume no nuclear usage.

For Scenario 1, at least, I would put the date somewhere around 1979 - early 1980, prior to the deployment of Pershing II and the GLCMs and the development of AirLand Battle in 1982.
I am by no means an expert or even that well-knowledged, so please correct me if I’m wrong. I assume Solidarity in Poland could still cause trouble for the USSR in this scenario.
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