Latest Possible Qing Dynasty Revival?

The past semester I've been taking a course on 19th century Chinese History which I've enjoyed immensely. The overarching plot of Chinese history in the 19th century is that of the Qing Dynasty attempting to reform itself in light of western imperialism.

Though advocated almost immediately after the First Opium War, serious reform efforts did not begin until after the Second Opium War with the "Self Strengthening Movement". This movement lasted for almost 30 years but was eventually proven to be worthless with China's defeat in the Sino-Japanese War. Further attempts at reform include the "100 Days" of 1898 as well as several attempts at reform in the early 20th century.

My question is: at what point did the Qing Dynasty's attempts at reform become futile? What's the latest possible date that they could successfully bring about a revival of their dynasty prolonging it further into the 20th century?
 

yourworstnightmare

Banned
Donor
A general called Zhang Xun tried to restore the Qing dynasty in July 1917, he failed miserably. Premier Duan Qirui, the leader of the Anhui Clique defeated general Zhang quite easily.
 

Hendryk

Banned
The past semester I've been taking a course on 19th century Chinese History which I've enjoyed immensely.
Fascinating, innit? I think there's a TV series you might enjoy if you're into that kind of thing, the CCTV-produced "Towards the Republic". It's available with English subtitles (though, I have to admit, pretty crappy ones), and it provides a lively depiction of the last years of the dynasty and the early ones of the Republic. See this thread for more details.

This movement lasted for almost 30 years but was eventually proven to be worthless with China's defeat in the Sino-Japanese War.
It's a pity, because they had many sensible ideas about how best to proceed. And Zhang Zhidong's arsenal at Hanyang did remain in operation until 1947, churning out such quintessential weapons as the Hanyang 88 bolt-action rifle.

My question is: at what point did the Qing Dynasty's attempts at reform become futile? What's the latest possible date that they could successfully bring about a revival of their dynasty prolonging it further into the 20th century?
My own appraisal is that the 1898 reform movement might plausibly have enabled the Qing to modernize their institutions if allowed to proceed to completion. Even then, it would have been an uphill struggle, not just because of social unrest and foreign encroachment, but for a very mundane reason: impending bankruptcy. By that point the Chinese government hadn't balanced a budget in decades, and had become dependent on foreign loans to keep going--and it didn't help that much of that money was embezzled by the court or corrupt officials.

A general called Zhang Xun tried to restore the Qing dynasty in July 1917, he failed miserably. Premier Duan Qirui, the leader of the Anhui Clique defeated general Zhang quite easily.
Indeed, it was a half-assed attempt and doomed to failure from the start. I find it sad that Kang Youwei lent its moral caution to it. I consider it evidence that by 1917, the imperial system as a whole, and not just the Qing dynasty, could no longer be salvaged, which is why I opted for a POD in 1912 for my own TL. Any later and it wouldn't have worked out.
 
The more things change...

My own appraisal is that the 1898 reform movement might plausibly have enabled the Qing to modernize their institutions if allowed to proceed to completion. Even then, it would have been an uphill struggle, not just because of social unrest and foreign encroachment, but for a very mundane reason: impending bankruptcy. By that point the Chinese government hadn't balanced a budget in decades, and had become dependent on foreign loans to keep going--and it didn't help that much of that money was embezzled by the court or corrupt officials.

Sounds a lot like America today.
 
A proper modernisation after the Sino-French war, with the naval budget not spent on marble ships, and getting shot of the Dragon Empress

There are later POSSIBILITIES but after her death in OTL, its a lot harder to hold the empire together, though an adult heir would have made some difference

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 

Xen

Banned
A proper modernisation after the Sino-French war, with the naval budget not spent on marble ships, and getting shot of the Dragon Empress

There are later POSSIBILITIES but after her death in OTL, its a lot harder to hold the empire together, though an adult heir would have made some difference

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

It would probably be best if the Dowager Empress Cixi died in childbirth, in my opinion she is responsible for the fall of the Empire, had she allowed many of the modernization programs to proceed, then China would be better off for them, and the old Empire may still be around
 

Typo

Banned
Cixi is hardly unique in her oppositions to modernizers

Without her, the majority of the bureacracy is still against it
 

Hendryk

Banned
Without her, the majority of the bureacracy is still against it
There were conservative elements in the bureaucracy, to be sure, but many influential officials were acutely aware of the need for reform and supported modernization. The Self-Strengthening Movement was primarily a bureaucratic lobby, and when Kang Youwei wrote his seminal Memoir to the Emperor in 1895, he gathered the signatures of hundreds of officials.
 
Qing Victorious
A Fearless Leader TL

Prologue: August 1900

The Imperial Capital reeked of chaos...

It also reeked of smoke, gunpowder, and Heaven knew what else. Drawing his peasant’s robe over his face Prince Ronglu grimaced as he shuffled through the streets of Beijing. He could barely contain his humiliation as he continued along the road that led out of the city, how was it that he, a Manchu prince, was was forced to flee his own city for fear of western barbarians? The world had truly been turned on its head in recent years...

But he couldn’t focus on that, right now they needed to get the Empress Dowager out of the capital. Soon enough the westerners would leave, like they had before when they occupied Beijing. Then he’d return along with the Empress Dowager and pick up the pieces, just like they had almost 40 years ago. Exactly how remained to be seen but right now...

A sudden shriek pierced the din of Beijing and startled Ronglu out of his reverie. With a start he turned...

NO!

It couldn’t be, he’d insured that the Empress Dowager and he were guarded by as many Imperial guardsmen as they could spare...

Now as he knelt down beside the crumpled figure that used to be the Empress Dowager he knew it wasn’t enough. Already he could see that she was losing far too much blood, the wound was fatal. Reaching towards the soaked portion of her robe Ronglu’s fingers confirmed his suspicions, the
Empress Dowager had minutes left to live.

Looking up from Cixi’s crumpled form he glared at the guardsmen standing mutely around the pair. “How did this happen?” he demanded.

They said nothing.

Standing up Ronglu grabbed the nearest guardsman “WHO DID THIS?” he yelled

“It was Reshen*...” he said quietly “...it all happened so fast, he moved, and then, then he was gone...”

That was enough for Ronglu who, without thinking, plunged his dagger into the guardsman’s stomach. As he collapsed to the ground, Ronglu turned to face the rest of the guardsmen. “You two...” he said “find your companion and bring me his head.” He paused “The rest of you, we will proceed with the Empress Dowager’s body and make for Xi’an at all possible speed...”

(From “The Anachronistic Empire: The story of the Qing Dynasty” David Jung 1997)

...The assassination of the Empress Dowager Cixi during the final days of the Boxer Rebellion certainly marks a decisive point in the history of the Qing Dynasty. The de facto ruler of China since 1861, the Empress Dowager, had for years played a crucial role as Imperial Regent in the tripartite entity that was the Imperial court. Her assassination along with the downfall of the conservative faction within the court removed two parts of the trinity leaving the Guangxu Emperor as the only remaining piece...

...Following her assassination numerous stories and rumours began to appear as to the exact series of events that preceded her demise. Poison, along with causes both natural and non-natural were put forward. All that is certain is that she died while fleeing Beijing in the aftermath of the Boxer Rebellion. Though modern forensic scientists have offered their services as to ascertain her cause of death the Imperial family has declined preferring to leave the Empress Dowager to rest in peace thus condemning us to forever debate exactly what caused the “Dragon Lady” to give up her tenacious grip on life...

...Of particular note is a series of documents labelled as the diaries of an Imperial guardsman. These diaries spin a surprisingly detailed account of the Empress Dowagers’ final moments and claim that an Imperial guardsman having decided that the Empress Dowager was the main reason behind the downfall of the Qing Dynasty took it upon himself to slay her. Upon doing so he quickly left the group and, being disguised in peasant garb, immediately disappeared into the crowds that infused Beijing during the heady days of August 1900...

*A horrible attempt at making up a Manchu name I'll admit
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