I should know, considering I did a report on Napoleon a few years ago. But I can't find it on this computer, and the conclusion have slipped my mind... I'll dig it up tomorrow when I get access to my second computer. Gleaning at Britannica though, here are the basics:
Corsica is ceded to France, and Napoleon is born shortly thereafter. Pasquale Paoli is leading the rebellion against the French, and Napoleon's father Carlo joined Paoli's party. However when things turned sour for Paoli Carlo switched sides and joined the French. He earned the protection of the new (French) governor and got a nice job as an assessor. Following up on this he got his two sons (Napoleon and Joseph) educations in France. While Napoleon was only nine when he moved overseas to France, he had up until that time been only a Corsican. As we know he eventually ended up in the army, but had time for a two-year return to Corsica between 1786 and 1788. When the French Revolution kicked off Napoleon returned to Corsica again to join Paoli (who had made a comeback), only to be rejected by Paoli who still remembered daddy Carlo's betrayal. Napoleon fell out with Paoli some time later, and we all know what happened once he returned to France.
So, the issues here:
* If Corsica breaks free from Genoa, I think Pasquale Paoli is the natural leader. He pretty much held that position until 1769 anyway.
* If the French never invade and Carlo's loyalty doesn't become an issue, does he get to climb high enough on the ladder to send his sons away to get foreign education? He already held a pretty decent position under Paoli...
* Paoli studied at the military academy in Naples. Isn't it quite likely Napoleon would end up either there or at some other Italian academy? Or did the French academies have a high enough status to justify sending him over there?
If Napoleon doesn't get a foregin military education I think he's out of the picture. Maybe he becomes a lawyer like his dad. If he does become a military man you'd think he'd end up on Paoli's/Corsica's side in any future conflict. What I do wonder though is a) would Corsica actually get involved in the Revolutionary wars? and b) would Napoleon have risen through the ranks in the same way as he was able to during the revolution?