Latest possible partition of France?

Would a civil war resulting in a stalemate, and thus a de facto partition count? The third state could be an independent Corsica, or something, that capitalised on the civil war.
 
(At the time of this writing there are seven active separatist movements (French Basque Country, Brittany, French Catalonia-Roussillon, Corsica, Savoy, Provence, Occitania) and seven active autonomist movements (Alsace, Brittany, Corsica, Nice, Normandy, Savoy & Occitania) within Metropolitan France.) Granted, it is highly unlikely (barring perhaps whatever happens to Catalonia, but that's a topic for another day) that either of these will gain independence in the modern day.

I'm not sure how you are defining "active" but these movements for the most part aren't taken that seriously. Corsica has the strongest nationalist movement but even then there is a lot of doubt that it could be a viable state, having only 300 000 inhabitants.

There are regular calls for more decentralization of the French state in favor of the regions, though that's been the case forever.
 
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I'm not sure how you are defining "active" but these movements for the most part aren't taken that seriously. Corsica has the strongest nationalist movement but even then there is a lot of doubt that it could be a viable state, having only 300 000 inhabitants.

There are regular calls for more decentralization of the French state in favor of the regions, though that's been the case forever.

None of them are taken that seriously, but then the same could be said with the majority of separatist movements around the world today.
 
I'm not sure how you are defining "active" but these movements for the most part aren't taken that seriously. Corsica has the strongest nationalist movement but even then there is a lot of doubt that it could be a viable state, having only 300 000 inhabitants.

There are regular calls for more decentralization of the French state in favor of the regions, though that's been the case forever.

Malta is an independent country but has less than 420,000 people. Independent Corsica would be heavily reliant on nearby countries but definitely could be viable.
 
Malta is an independent country but has less than 420,000 people. Independent Corsica would be heavily reliant on nearby countries but definitely could be viable.

But there are key differences. Malta is very small (316 sq km), almost a city-state. Singapore and Hong Kong are larger.

Corsica has a small population covering a much larger area (8680 km2) to defend and administer. It's much more costly to provide services to everyone on the island when they are spread out so much more.
 
But there are key differences. Malta is very small (316 sq km), almost a city-state. Singapore and Hong Kong are larger.

Corsica has a small population covering a much larger area (8680 km2) to defend and administer. It's much more costly to provide services to everyone on the island when they are spread out so much more.

ask @Carp about that tbh
 
The 15th century is the last big chance to have a plausible partition- either a victorious England, or simply a less successful Valois, could see Gascony go its own way, which could also see knock on effects in the rest, (my timeline, for instance, had Italy peel off the Arelate, and several Burgundy-focused timelines could see eg Champagne, Lorraine, Picardy etc end up independent). IIRC Provence also was on the table during the Italian Wars, although the Habsburgs for a variety of reasons didn't have the will and/or ability to do that, but given their claim to Provence via the Trastamara (and also the HRE, potentially) a habsburg wank could very well restore the Arelate as a separate kingdom or a territory attached to Spain. This would probably require nerfing the Ottomans and/or the Reformation, the former probably being better as Charles was very distracted from dealing with Luther, one way or the other, due to the ongoing crisis in Hungary IIRC.

Barring that some sort of North/South Korea situation in the Wars of Religion perhaps?

But in general, go backwards from when the provinces were annexed:

Nice/Savoy- 1866, easily could be part of ATL Italy/Sardinia Piedmont
Corsica- See Carp's timeline. Alternately I think this is just about the only territory that could plausibly be separated from France at OTL Vienna, especially given the Napoleonic connection
Lorraine- an independent duchy up until the mid 1700s, could potentially be made independent as a consequence of the Napoleonic Wars... would be very difficult, however, maybe an alt-Napoleon or an early defeat of the Revolution
Brittany- nominally independent into the 16th century, could be made into an independent kingdom by a stronger England
Provence- strong regional autonomy, several foreign claimants, integrated late with the demise of the Anjou
Gascony- hotbed of the Hugonauts, likely requires either an English victory or a major change
 
Corsican independence is still possible in the future, though very unlikely. A Nazi victory could definitely see it happen. Before then, the most likely time is the aftermath of an alt-Revolution. France is very unique in Europe for being a large area with no strong regionalism/nationalism in parts. This was largely due to the education system and conscription effects during the Revolutionary War. Butterfly that away and French could be a lot weaker as a language in the South and Catalan-style identity could exist beneath the French state. Then you just need a few crises for that regional identity to become nationalist.
 
If we even see a French partition in this timeline, the newly-independent states I see (based on ethnicity) are: Corsica, Brittany, Basque, Alsace, Burgundy, Occitania and Savoy with a rump France as well.
 
If we even see a French partition in this timeline, the newly-independent states I see (based on ethnicity) are: Corsica, Brittany, Basque, Alsace, Burgundy, Occitania and Savoy with a rump France as well.

There isn't really much of an Occitan identity to start with, though. You could have an independent Gascony (speaking Gascon), an independent Duchy of Toulouse (speaking Languedocien), or an independent Provence (speaking Provençal), etc.

Maybe if you have an independent Aquitaine it could have an official language that is derived from an Occitan dialect.
 
There isn't really much of an Occitan identity to start with, though. You could have an independent Gascony (speaking Gascon), an independent Duchy of Toulouse (speaking Languedocien), or an independent Provence (speaking Provençal), etc.

Maybe if you have an independent Aquitaine it could have an official language that is derived from an Occitan dialect.

Yes, whether the dialects of Occitan should all be considered one language - and separate from the neighboring languages (like Catalan) - is debated, and influenced by politics/history. Gascon is basically as similar to Catalan as it is to Provençal, perhaps more so.
 
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Lorraine- an independent duchy up until the mid 1700s, could potentially be made independent as a consequence of the Napoleonic Wars... would be very difficult, however, maybe an alt-Napoleon or an early defeat of the Revolution

Problem with that is, and what would make that difficult, unless you have something like a Polish-Saxon Crisis swinging in favor of Prussia & Russia, and they decide to have the Wettin inherit, the only other way it would swing is Austria effectively reclaiming it. After all, they have a strong claim to the Dukedom.

Brittany- nominally independent into the 16th century, could be made into an independent kingdom by a stronger England

Alternatively, the HRE calling on France's bluff and beating them for it. After all, Maximillian I, HRE was married to Anne of Brittany. Had he beaten France, you could have a Habsburg Brittany.

Provence- strong regional autonomy, several foreign claimants, integrated late with the demise of the Anjou

Several Foreign Claimants?

Gascony- hotbed of the Hugonauts, likely requires either an English victory or a major change

English Victory indeed. The only possibility is for the House of Poitou (the predecessors to Plantagenet Aquitaine) to be a little bit luckier on the child front. Of course there is also going back further (either not having Louis the Stammerer become King of West Francia, or somehow have Charlemagne not conquer Gascony, but that'd be too far back.
 
But in general, go backwards from when the provinces were annexed:

Nice/Savoy- 1866, easily could be part of ATL Italy/Sardinia Piedmont
Corsica- See Carp's timeline. Alternately I think this is just about the only territory that could plausibly be separated from France at OTL Vienna, especially given the Napoleonic connection
Lorraine- an independent duchy up until the mid 1700s, could potentially be made independent as a consequence of the Napoleonic Wars... would be very difficult, however, maybe an alt-Napoleon or an early defeat of the Revolution
Brittany- nominally independent into the 16th century, could be made into an independent kingdom by a stronger England
Provence- strong regional autonomy, several foreign claimants, integrated late with the demise of the Anjou
Gascony- hotbed of the Hugonauts, likely requires either an English victory or a major change

Would be interesting seeing the Nord-Pas-de-Calais part of an ATL Belgium or United Netherlands.
 
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