Latest possible partition of France?

As it says on the tin, what's the latest possible date that at least three independent states exist within the OTL borders of France (let's say the 2018 borders) - so no Alsace-Lorraine/Savoy technicalities there.

Is this even possible after 1500 in a meaningful sense? I figure France proper, Aquitaine, and Brittany is probably the easiest way to do this, but I'm not sure it's all that plausible
 
How about Brittany and Corsica. That shouldn't be too hard. Or if we want to cheat, make French Guyana and a French carribean island independent.
 
As it says on the tin, what's the latest possible date that at least three independent states exist within the OTL borders of France (let's say the 2018 borders) - so no Alsace-Lorraine/Savoy technicalities there.

Is this even possible after 1500 in a meaningful sense? I figure France proper, Aquitaine, and Brittany is probably the easiest way to do this, but I'm not sure it's all that plausible


Kaiserreich division of France.
 

Philip

Donor
Decades of Darkness almost achieved this with a POD around 1800. Roughly speaking, France was blamed for the Napoleonic Wars, Second Napoleonic Wars (sort of a Continent-wide Franco-Prussian War), and the Great War. Enough was enough. France was partitioned. At the end of the timeline, they were still occupied by Germany, but unification did not appear to be at all likely.
 
Thinking only of mainland France then Brittany is the easiest to detach relatively late.
Navarre prior to Henry IV is next, though not much of that is within modern France
Then I would say the Gascon coast
Then the former HRE territories of the former Arelat.
 
What about a forever WWII scenario. All fighting shifts to the Eastern Front, France remains split between a pro-Nazi Vichy south and a North that cautiously alligns itself with England wherever it can.
 

Deleted member 97083

A Soviet Communist East France and a capitalist West France is the most obvious late possibility. Paris can be a city-state.

Alternative metropolitan France is in one piece, and Réunion and French Guyane become independent nations. (OP didn't exclude overseas territories) Corsica could be separate also.
 
Maybe an alternate time line where France is the nation that falls to fascism and starts WWII instead of Germany. When the war is over France is partitioned like Germany was.
 
A "Treaty of trianion" to break Occitania off?
Consider they manage to completely shatter Hungary, that means it would be applicable given enough force?
 
Britanny, like Normandy, is impossible to split from France in modern era without permanent and massive foreign military occupation.

As much as it is to split Cornwallis or Wales from England.

Corsica, of course, can very easily be split from France.

Now, concerning the date, you can go as recently as 1944/1945 when the US planned establishing AMGOT on a partitioned/divided France. If they did so, there would be chaos on a never seen magnitude, with a general uprising and the US being basically forced to leave France after leaving it in a state of ruins not that far from Germany’s state.
 
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Personally, I don't there is really a latest possible partition of France to be honest. But that largely depends on which polities you would want to come out of a partitioned France, and also if you have enough military might to enforce a paritition or enough covert support to any one of the factions aiming to split off a particular province from France. (At the time of this writing there are seven active separatist movements (French Basque Country, Brittany, French Catalonia-Roussillon, Corsica, Savoy, Provence, Occitania) and seven active autonomist movements (Alsace, Brittany, Corsica, Nice, Normandy, Savoy & Occitania) within Metropolitan France.) Granted, it is highly unlikely (barring perhaps whatever happens to Catalonia, but that's a topic for another day) that either of these will gain independence in the modern day.

Realistically, it could be possible post-Napoleonic Wars (unlikely because the GP's probably didn't want a partitioned France), a post-Franco-Prussian War (unlikely because it would draw Great Britain's ire), post-World World I (ala Kaiserreich, but that would require German military domination throughout the conflict), or post-World War II (the aforementioned plan to split off Burgundy and Brittany, though the former would be against the spirit of the OP as Hitler wanted to annex Burgundy, and probably had little interest in spinning Brittany off as an independent state.)
 
Britanny, like Normandy, is impossible to split from France in modern era without permanent and massive foreign military occupation.
What exactly do you mean with the modern era? My guess would have been that in the 17th, possibly even 18th century an independent Brittany would have been possible. That would be the Early Modern period. What would be according to you the latest POD that an independent Brittany would be possible?
 
Personally, I don't there is really a latest possible partition of France to be honest.
I think you mean Modern France is near impossible to partition rather than France can never be divided. No country is that.
Anyways a strict reading of the OP is a requirement for 3 independent states within the geographic boundaries of Modern France not a partition of Modern France. So if you ask yourself what areas could be a non French state and when could they it should be relatively easy to come up with a few ideas!
 
I think you mean Modern France is near impossible to partition rather than France can never be divided. No country is that.
Anyways a strict reading of the OP is a requirement for 3 independent states within the geographic boundaries of Modern France not a partition of Modern France. So if you ask yourself what areas could be a non French state and when could they it should be relatively easy to come up with a few ideas!

Ah so, just three independent states within modern French lands? There's actually quite a lot of possibilities then. Besides France proper, you could spin off an Occitan state (either a Kingdom of Aquitaine or a Duchy of Aquitaine (provided that it either keeps it's semi-independence or breaks from England assuming that England can actually keep Aquitaine. Alternatively, a surviving County of Toulouse provided there is a lot of Aragonese support.), Brittany, Burgundy, Navarre, debatably Normandy, Lorraine, Provence. et.al.
 
I don't even think independent Occitania is even possible after the French Revolution (and after the Hundred Years War, almost impossible) barring a South France/North France situation. Brittany is still possible into the 20th century, even if an independent Brittany would be like Ireland with none of its major cities speaking the native language. Same with Corsica, although the Corsican language would be in a lot more use before the mid-20th century. Anything else would have to be through the absolute decimation of France, like after losing World War II, and recreating Normandy, Burgundy, etc. would probably have next to no popular support.
 
An independent Occitania is possible after the HYW and after the French Revolution, it's just balls to the wall unlikely and would require as you say, a complete capitulation of France and a total disregard for both balance of power and, depending on who you ask, popular support. The chances are better with Brittany & especially Corsica (whom, by the end of the Napoleonic Wars, would've been with France just shy of 50 years, with at least two separate attempts, both before and during the Revolution, to become independent.), but there's a reason why it still managed to stick into France after all of that too.
 
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