Latest possible discovery of the New World?

With a PoD as late as Columbus's birth, I think 10 or 20 years is as late as it can get. As others have pointed out fishermen are likely on the Grand Banks already, and the Portuguese ARE going to hit Brazil soon.

But does that mean it'll become widespread knowledge? It could very well be them thinking they found some small, far off island and they take no interest in it.
 
I doubt that long. It was already pushing it by the time Columbus found the New World. I imagine that something is discovered by 1500. if not sooner.
 
One scenario I've oft pondered is a surviving Byzantium/less of a constant state of war between the Ottomans and Christendom.
It was this closing off of traditional trade routes in the middle east that was a major motivator for the quest to round Africa and find a westwards route.

I think though that even if we don't have explorers actively setting out to find new routes to the Indies, with advancing shipbuilding technology it would be inevitable that fishermen at least would find it in the 16th century- there are those who think Basque and English fishermen were already well aware of the North American coast and it was their stories that led Cabot to get his ideas.
 
But does that mean it'll become widespread knowledge? It could very well be them thinking they found some small, far off island and they take no interest in it.
Word will spread. You can't keep a trade secret forever (unless you're Coke ;)). Seriously, the Grand Banks and Newfoundland are sure to be visited, may well already have been visited, by many different fishermen. Word will leak.

As for 'insignificant', so what? Iceland was insignificant really, but knowledge of it was 'widespread'. Another place with lots of valuable fish will be well known, even if no major settlement and colonization happens. The OP doesn't ask for any of that, just that it be known and remembered, as opposed to Vinland which sank to the status of legend.
 
One scenario I've oft pondered is a surviving Byzantium/less of a constant state of war between the Ottomans and Christendom.
It was this closing off of traditional trade routes in the middle east that was a major motivator for the quest to round Africa and find a westwards route.

I think though that even if we don't have explorers actively setting out to find new routes to the Indies, with advancing shipbuilding technology it would be inevitable that fishermen at least would find it in the 16th century- there are those who think Basque and English fishermen were already well aware of the North American coast and it was their stories that led Cabot to get his ideas.
Don't forget that Henry the Navigator was running around well before the fall of Constantinople, and Cape Bojador was passed in 1434. The insane profits to be made from the spice trade are going to tempt somebody to start funding African expeditions at some point, and once they figure out how to bypass Cape Bojador, the end is inevitable.

Early 16th century is about the latest you can pull it off, without an early POD that absolutely devastates Europe.

Someone mentioned the Chinese, but they are much less likely to discover America anytime soon for a host of reasons, chiefly the distance (the Pacific is massively wider than the Atlantic, which makes accidental discoveries much harder, and much less repeatable).
 
One scenario I've oft pondered is a surviving Byzantium/less of a constant state of war between the Ottomans and Christendom.
It was this closing off of traditional trade routes in the middle east that was a major motivator for the quest to round Africa and find a westwards route.

I think though that even if we don't have explorers actively setting out to find new routes to the Indies, with advancing shipbuilding technology it would be inevitable that fishermen at least would find it in the 16th century- there are those who think Basque and English fishermen were already well aware of the North American coast and it was their stories that led Cabot to get his ideas.
Nah, the Ottomans had very little to do with Portuguese interest in going around Africa. In a world with friendlier Ottomans or lasting Byzantines the Portuguese are still making next to nothing off of the spice roads, and will still be interested in reversing that situation. People didn't just want the spices for their dinner, they wanted to have them to sell for profit. The Portuguese can have the former with friendly Ottomans, but the latter only comes when they round the cape and reach India.
 
With the Bristol fishermen in the 1480s, Columbus in 1492, Cabot in 1495 and the Portuguese at Brazil in 1500 I think the discovery of the new world was an idea whose time had come. Indeed it probably became well known because so many people from so many backgrounds went there, if it was just Columbus he could have kept it secret for quite a while until he had a good handle on what was there.
 
Presuming Columbus dies or gets funding for an expedition elsewhere that goes awry, Portugal will discover Brazil in 1500 or so via Cabral who commanded 13 ships. If all are lost, Portugal still has an interest in the trade with India opened by Vasco de Gama, so there will be other vessels to follow especially for the massive potential profits. Also in the north as has already been mentioned there are English fisherman in Bristol who claimed to know of the Grand Banks area or somewhere near it a decade or more before Columbus made his voyage. They might encourage a more formal expedition by the English within a decade of Columbus regardless of if he succeeded or not.
 
Nah, the Ottomans had very little to do with Portuguese interest in going around Africa. In a world with friendlier Ottomans or lasting Byzantines the Portuguese are still making next to nothing off of the spice roads, and will still be interested in reversing that situation. People didn't just want the spices for their dinner, they wanted to have them to sell for profit. The Portuguese can have the former with friendly Ottomans, but the latter only comes when they round the cape and reach India.

If the Venetians still dominate the market they might not see an opening worth taking when they did
 
If the Venetians still dominate the market they might not see an opening worth taking when they did
The Venetians still essentially did dominate the market well into the Portuguese exploration period. Profits for Venice aren't the same as profits for Portugal, and they really didn't care about undercutting the prices of fellow Christians more than those of the Muslims.
 
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