Latest possible discovery of the Americas?

ThePest179

Banned
As it says in the title, what is the latest possible date that the Europeans could discover the American continents?
 

Saphroneth

Banned
Depends how far back the PoD can be.
(The extreme case of this is to have the emergence of civilization in Eurasia happen thousands of years later, so the Americas discover Europe...)
 

ThePest179

Banned
Depends how far back the PoD can be.
(The extreme case of this is to have the emergence of civilization in Eurasia happen thousands of years later, so the Americas discover Europe...)

POD is any time after the birth of Christ, but bonus points goes to the closest possible date to Columbus's voyage.
 
PoD can't be later than the early 11th century, as Vikings discovered Newfoundland (and maybe traveled much further south depending on what you take from certain artifacts uncovered at their camp there).

But disaccounting them, probably not much futher unless you nuke Islam as there wouldn't have been (as much of) an interest in exploring in that direction if trade could still flow freely through Mesopotamia and the Red Sea into the Mediterranian.

A wankish 4th crusade not detouring via Constantinoble but grabbing and holding Egypt would probably delay it the most, but i still wouldn't hold my breath for it stalling for longer than to somewhere around 1550-1600, due to technological advancements in naval shipbuilding making long travels across open waters viable, and the great banks being explored by specially Basque and English fishers, which sooner or later would let it leak that theres something interesting out there.
 
I think that early 17th century is later possible date of foundation of Americas. Fishers probably knew about North America but never told. It is possible that someone finds the continents accidentally and decide colonise that. Possible reasons for later foundation:

1. Roman Empire (not matter which of them) never fall so there not be reason search alternate route to India and China.

3. Europe becomes somehow Muslim dominate continent so exploritation delays about one century or even longer. But I admit that this scenario is quiet implausible.

2. Mongols invade and destroy Europe so badly that recovering of the country lasts much longer so there haven't any resources to go beyond of the Atlantic Ocean.

3. Worse Black Death which stagnates Europe very long time.
 
PoD can't be later than the early 11th century, as Vikings discovered Newfoundland (and maybe traveled much further south depending on what you take from certain artifacts uncovered at their camp there).

But disaccounting them, probably not much futher unless you nuke Islam as there wouldn't have been (as much of) an interest in exploring in that direction if trade could still flow freely through Mesopotamia and the Red Sea into the Mediterranian.

A wankish 4th crusade not detouring via Constantinoble but grabbing and holding Egypt would probably delay it the most, but i still wouldn't hold my breath for it stalling for longer than to somewhere around 1550-1600, due to technological advancements in naval shipbuilding making long travels across open waters viable, and the great banks being explored by specially Basque and English fishers, which sooner or later would let it leak that theres something interesting out there.

If the Muslims hold Iberia, then you butterfly away Henry the Navigator, and without evidence of a sea route around Africa, no one has any incentive to try and sail west to reach the east. That would buy the Americas a lot more time because then the only possible discoverers were the West Africans and they are a lottery magnitude long shot.
 
The Eastern Passage

Given the prevailing winds it might occur to some European navigator(s) heading to the Indies that they may be able to make better time home by cutting across the Great Ocean....only they would find Navigator Land instead. You might have this happen fairly late though probably 18th century would the last hold out with the 17th more likely.
 
It's really difficult to delay the 'discovery' of the New World much. At least without postulating another 'Black Death' level plague event.

Item: European fisheries were starting to get run down. Lots of fishermen were going further afield, and IF Bristol and Basque fishermen had not already found the Grand Banks by 1492, they'd do it soon after.

Item: Portugal was exploring south, and rounding the Cape of Good Hope. The best route for that goes well into the Atlantic. Eventually, someone WILL end up in Brazil, and report back.

So, unless you somehow drop the demand for fish in Europe AND get the Portuguese out of the 'cut out the middlemen on spices' exploration, the early 1500s are the latest plausible.
 
What if you loosened the requirements a bit? Any accidental discoveries or occasional visits by fishermen or lost explorers could have had similar results to the Vinland settlements. Sure there would technically be contact between the two areas, but Europe at large wouldn't know and if they did wouldn't care, especially if they can figure out from the start these places aren't actually India or China like Columbus thought.

The biggest step to achieving that would be keeping the overland and sea routes in the Indian Ocean open for trading, perhaps by removing the religious divide between the Middle East and Europe (butterfly Islam away entirely, or have Islam be much more successful in Europe), though this won't make any guarantees since there's more motives for countries to block trade other than religion. Another possibility would be to have Europe remain dominated by a super-polity, maybe *Rome, that would go on to dominate Arabia or Persia, either way maintaining a direct route to India. In that scenario there'd be no real interest to have to sail around Africa or to sail around the world to get to these rich lands.
 
1510 when Portugal discovers Brazil.

IMHO Columbus' discovery of the Americas was probably long overdue given the European ties with Iceland and Greenland in the 1400s and the activities of Bristol and Basque fishermen in the West Atlantic in the late 1400s. Basically he popularised the New World rather than discovering it.

As for further delaying it I'd think technology would be the key; delay the development of the cog sailing ship, delay development work on astronomy to delay latitude and portolans and the introduction of the magnetic compass.
 

Saphroneth

Banned
With a multiplicity of PODs (basically, almost ASB) : when space travel is invented.
I can think of a totally-ASB-but-still-fun way to have that happen:

Med sea remains drained.
Civilization of birds evolves there.
Not wanting to leave the air that lets them fly, they stay within the bottomlands and develop spaceflight.
Eventual discovery of Americas once their Sputnik flies.
 
If you get European cities levelled by various invasions of steppe hordes, you could put it back centuries, I would have thought.
 
Top