Latest PODs for Korea's modernization

Delta Force

Banned
Korea was in the beginning phases of modernization in the 1890s, and might have been able to remain independent if Russia had more power projection in the region.
 

Neirdak

Banned
I would say during the reign of Sejong the Great (1418 – 1450). I am not a specialist of Korea and just remember my old courses about Korean history, but his reign saw an improvement of military and civilian technologies. The calendar was reformed, a farmer book was compiled Nongsa jikseol (?) and two medical treatises were written Hyangyak jipseongbang and the Euibang yuchwi.

The King also protected Jang Yeong-sil who was a kind of Korean "Leonardo Da Vinci" and from lower class. He instituted an "Academy of science", the "Hall of Worthies" (Jiphyeonjeon) at the Gyeongbokgung Palace. The Hall of Worthies was disbanded by King Sejo after many of its members plotted to assassinate him in 1456. :( Sejong also created the hangul system and lower people became able to communicate with one another in writing.

PODs Two main obstacles for modernization were the social stratification of the Confucean class system and high instability brought by the coup led by Grand Prince Suyang (King Sejo) in 1455. I have an idea, but yeah I am not sure. You could have King Sejo "chosen" as successor by his father (Sejong) instead of his ill-brother who became King Munjong in OTL. More importantly, King Sejong would promulgate a law stating that "If a successor is too ill or young to govern, the regency must be controlled by their mother and younger brothers".

It would erase the reign of King Munjong's son, Danjong of Joseon who succeeded his father at the age of 12, which would help to avoid higher instability It will certainly lower the scholarly opposition against King Sejo and thus the Hall of Worthies would have been disbanded after the plot. King Sejo would be considered as legitimate and produce less bloodsheds.

The other problem is Confucean stratification of the society, you could have both Buddhism and Confucianism, accepted by King Sejong who suppressed Buddhism in OTL. :confused:
 
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Korea wasn't exactly "isolationist" in the 19th century, as it had continued to conduct trade with China, Japan, and the Ryukyus for centuries, although it did seem "isolationist" from the Western point of view. In any case, Korea essentially failed to industrialize significantly IOTL before it was annexed by Japan, due to long-term demographic factors.

I'll quote my response from another thread:

Korea was invaded by 14 countries throughout its history, although eight of them mostly targeted what is now Manchuria. As a result, the peninsula's population decreased over the long run from the 10th to 17th centuries, from a peak of around 8-12 million under Goryeo before the Mongol invasions, to around only 4-6 million soon after the same invasions, after which it stagnated (~6-8) until the mid-17th century. For comparison, based on data compiled by the Tang after it occupied Baekje and Goguryeo, the peninsula's population (excluding Goguryeo's former possessions within Manchuria) was probably around 7-9 million by the late 7th century, despite major population displacements due to war. However, the introduction of cash crops since the 16th century did cause the population to double or triple (12-18 million) by 1800 or so, although it then stagnated again around 15 million or so by the middle of the century. Each major war led to widespread destruction, forcing the country to rebuild over and over again, and made it extremely difficult to continuously pursue innovations over decades, if not centuries. As a result, while there were several major cities, the bulk of the urban population generally remained concentrated around Hanseong (Seoul), somewhat limiting developments.

On the other hand, the Japanese population continued to grow at a steady rate since the archipelago was politically consolidated around AD 500, when the population was around 4-5 million, after which it reached . . . 25 million by around 1800 or so. This gradual growth for over a millennia was possible because it never experienced major foreign invasions, and it was only briefly threatened, not directly invaded, by the Mongols in the late 13th century . . . Continued population growth . . . meant that although Edo (Tokyo) became prominent by 1600 or so under the Tokugawa, other major cities, such as Ōsaka, Kyōto, and Nagoya, also continued to flourish for over two centuries. These conditions ultimately allowed further developments and innovations to be compounded over time, due to a larger labor force mostly stemming from continuous levels of population growth.

In other words, in order for Korea to successfully pull off a "Meiji," it would first have to systematically carry out major land reforms with the aim of boosting population growth rates over the long term, which would essentially require a PoD around 1700-50 at the latest, as the court would need to enact favorable policies after systematic restructuring.

. . . While Japan did not have enough natural resources for Western powers to express significant interest in colonization, it was also strategically located near China, Southeast Asia, and various islands across the Pacific . . . Although implementation of Sakoku, beginning in 1633, sharply limited Nanban trade soon after, a continuous influx of Rangaku from the Dutch meant that the country would eventually be prepared to tackle further reforms soon after the US arrived in 1853 to open up its trading ports.

On the other hand, Korea was much more geographically isolated in comparison, which meant that although several shipwrecked sailors did temporarily visit the peninsula, they generally did not find anything interesting in particular, especially as the Imjin War and Manchu invasions had respectively left the peninsula devastated in the late 16th and early 17th centuries. France eventually sent several warships in 1866 because Joseon had executed several French missionaries, not because they specifically wanted to open up the peninsula for trade, and although the US also attacked Korea five years later with five warships, it was not until 1876 that the country was forcibly "opened up" to trade by Japan.

However, it's also important to note that both Japan and Korea had extensive trading contacts with China and the Ryukyus, and also traded with Southeast Asia through the latter, which would also have explained why both had been hesitant to trade more extensively with Western powers before technological considerations eventually came into play.

As a result, while Korea did pursue various innovations throughout its history (the scientific revolution under Sejong was the most prominent, although it was far from the only one), devastating foreign invasions every century or so (~14 from ~300 BC to AD 1637) meant that it was forced to restart over and over again for over two millennia, and sharply curtailed significant economic and technological advancements over the long run. In addition, most of the urban population was generally clustered around what is now Seoul, due to extensive devastation in other regions, essentially limiting population growth after several centuries. Specifically, although the population did grow from around 6 to 15 million or so between 1600 and 1800 (due to cash crops), it eventually stagnated throughout the 19th century because the land had essentially reached its carrying capacity.

The military also essentially disintegrated due to geopolitical factors, as there had been no major conflicts for over 200 years (1637-1866), due to cordial relations with the Qing and Japan. These developments meant that most of the available soldiers were under the control of various influential clans by the mid-19th century or so. For comparison, 1443-1592 (also under Joseon) was the only other period of extended peace in Korean history, although this was interspersed with conflicts against the Jurchen, not to mention that devastating invasions previously during Goryeo convinced Joseon rulers to increase the reserve army to around 500,000-1 million by the mid-15th century. However, most of them were never mobilized, and numbers rapidly decreased within several decades, as no major conflicts occurred, while the Imjin War later caught Korea largely unprepared.

In other words, various economic reforms would have to be pursued over the long term, as attempting more radical reforms would not have sat well with the court, which remained divided among several influential factions at the time, and would have been loath to allow other regional governments to gain influence at their expense. Population growth levels in other regions would have allowed several major urban centers to gradually develop within a century or so, which would have required a PoD around 1700-50 at the latest for productivity to increase in the long run. Ironically, this might have also led to the development of a larger military, as the growing influence of various regional governments would also have produced more local militaries, eventually forcing the central government to consolidate its influence militarily in order to minimize disorder.

Ultimately, Korea would have needed to simultaneously build up its economy and military in order for Japan to intervene much less in the peninsula's affairs, and it's worth noting that Japan never directly went to war with Korea in the late 19th century, as it judged that it would have been too costly while simultaneously industrializing and consolidating its central government. In any case, attempting to thoroughly track these alternate developments will require a much more extensive knowledge of economics than that of history.
 
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