Latest POD to Advance us 50 years/100 years

Over the course of history there have been missed opportunities here or there to advance our collective knowledge. From incorrect assumptions to the instability of war to simple bad luck, we're clearly not as advanced as we could be.

What is the latest POD you can come up with that you think might have led to our advancement by 50 years or 100 years? So that by 1909 or 1959 we have the technology of 2009 with reasonable variation (clearly the exact technological package we have isn't going to be the same at a given point in time, with a given POD.)

For example, I would guess that a continuing, flourishing Roman Empire might lead to a world at least 50-100 years ahead of us, if not more. Can anyone think of later POD's?
 
Tesla or someone using his ideas could've invented the transistor in the late 1890-1920 period leading to perhaps a 30-50 year jump in the field of solid state electronics.
 
I don't think it's particularly possible, for reasons outlined below, without a POD hundreds of years in the past. Advancing tech a few years is fine and dandy. Advancing one field of technology a couple of decades is possible (societal changes to make biology a much more important focus of research than chemistry or physics to early scientists, for example). But advancing all tech 100 years or even 50 becomes a hell of a lot more difficult.

Tesla or someone using his ideas could've invented the transistor in the late 1890-1920 period leading to perhaps a 30-50 year jump in the field of solid state electronics.

Bleh. Transistors were invented in the 20s or so (I checked just now for the exact year, and it was 1925). They just weren't actually used in computing for decades later.

The problem with just launching one piece of technology ahead of time is that tech is not linear. It's not just a matter of discovering and using transistors twenty years early, and suddenly computing technology is twenty years ahead. Someone would need to have the insight to use it for computing. Miniaturization tech would be needed to get really good use out of transistors. The IC would need to be invented ahead of time, too. We'd need an entrepreneur to increase the usefulness of computers; making it available for smaller businesses and subsequently home use is really helpful to get more people working on and investing in R&D. You still need people to develop all the algorithms and math behind computer science. Dijkstra's Algorithm isn't going to just discover itself. Someone needs to develop and implement multiprogramming (ie, the concept of a computer running more than one program at a time). The idea itself seems pretty obvious in retrospect, but only because hindsight is 20/20; it was revolutionary at the time, and it's not trivial to actually implement.
 
I don't think it's particularly possible, for reasons outlined below, without a POD hundreds of years in the past. Advancing tech a few years is fine and dandy. Advancing one field of technology a couple of decades is possible (societal changes to make biology a much more important focus of research than chemistry or physics to early scientists, for example). But advancing all tech 100 years or even 50 becomes a hell of a lot more difficult.


I was considering this, and agree in terms of a late tech POD. I think you could still do it with other types of PODs, such as anything that leads to significantly greater global stability over an extended period of time. Look at the Isaac's Empire timeline for example. It's on-track to be 100-200 years ahead of us, due mostly to an increase in the stability of the globe.

I do think you could also make the case that a significant advance in one science will lead to advances across the board, but that's so much harder to prove or nail down, as anybody who's watched Connections will probably agree (my two cents: everybody on this board needs to watch Connections.)

Someone might also come forward with a MORE large-scale wars POD, but I'm more dubious about that. Though it might be true that certain fields are pushed ahead in the short term by large wars (standard example is nuclear power and WWII) I believe that's just the Broken Window Fallacy at work. Still, I'd be open to hearing thoughts on this.
 
I guess a good POD for the transistor would be Tesla inventing the Transistor Radio as that would be an mega consumer product that could get the ball rolling at least.

@Solomaxwell: I agree with your post in general.
 
I was considering this, and agree in terms of a late tech POD. I think you could still do it with other types of PODs, such as anything that leads to significantly greater global stability over an extended period of time. Look at the Isaac's Empire timeline for example. It's on-track to be 100-200 years ahead of us, due mostly to an increase in the stability of the globe.

I do think you could also make the case that a significant advance in one science will lead to advances across the board, but that's so much harder to prove or nail down, as anybody who's watched Connections will probably agree (my two cents: everybody on this board needs to watch Connections.)

I agree it's possible, it's just rather difficult with a late POD. I mean, if you have a TL where there are some massive, stable empires (eg, Rome controlling Europe and pieces of Africa and Asia, an uber-China and uber-India controlling east and south Asia, etc), then I'm willing to bet tech increases.

Someone might also come forward with a MORE large-scale wars POD, but I'm more dubious about that. Though it might be true that certain fields are pushed ahead in the short term by large wars (standard example is nuclear power and WWII) I believe that's just the Broken Window Fallacy at work. Still, I'd be open to hearing thoughts on this.

What I think would be a bit better might be a longer-scale Cold War, although something like OTL would be very difficult. Think about how the Cold War resulted in increased funding into math and engineering. If you're able to make some analog a hundred years earlier (say, Napoleon gets hegemony over Europe, Europe and the British Empire + maybe America start a Cold War), it might be reasonable to tweak some more things to increase tech budgets.

Get something like that going, and you can probably increase tech by a decent amount. It's just rather difficult since there's a very precise time frame you need to use. Too late, and you don't have enough time to make a real impact. Too early, and it'd be impossible to have a large scale cold war.
 
I remember a lecturer or two used to have a theory on a reason for the British decline in the 20th century (among many, he was a fan of the "lots of different reasons" school) and that was the relative lateness of England (but not say Scotland) to offer quality comprehensive/universal cheap or free primary/early secondary schooling, as well as developing a large public (or other) network of higher (e.g. university) educational institutions till the early/mid 20th century.

So perhaps a POD could be introduced to advance that by 50 years or so - which could well kick technological development a little bit ahead(not 50 years, but maybe something), given England's importance in the world at the time.
 
Well, the Hellenic states had some pretty impressive engineering until the Romans came and smashed their guilds and schools. So retard the progress of the Romans and an early industrial revolution might occur some 1500 years earlier.
 
I agree it's possible, it's just rather difficult with a late POD. I mean, if you have a TL where there are some massive, stable empires (eg, Rome controlling Europe and pieces of Africa and Asia, an uber-China and uber-India controlling east and south Asia, etc), then I'm willing to bet tech increases.

Yeah, late PODs just changing the tech and not society don't really cut it. But you could go a bit earlier, as long as you stay post-Enlightenment. I always thought the Newton's Radio TL could've expanded the tech changes more. The wireless is going to spark other advances as soon as it arrives. I think we might be able to pick up 50 or so years in all fields between Newton's time and 1959. That's 50 years in 250, and I would think that's pushing it with just a tech POD. But maybe someone can think of a later one?
 
didn't the Romans have a working steam engine in the early 100s AD? Just it fell by the wayside as slavery was cheaper? Imagine Roman legions on Railroads? and the Coliseum built by steam lifts?
 
didn't the Romans have a working steam engine in the early 100s AD? Just it fell by the wayside as slavery was cheaper? Imagine Roman legions on Railroads? and the Coliseum built by steam lifts?

No. That's a big old misconception. It couldn't really do anything at all. They didn't have the metallurgy to make something useful.

Now, as far as useful tech is concerned, it may be possible to advance things somewhat. Technological advances will usually have their societal impacts, which may make it easier or harder to provide for future technological impacts. This is rather hard to predict, though.

One of my favorite "missed opportunities" at the moment is the telescope not being invented until the 16th-17th century. Eurasia had lenses perfectly capable of being used in a rudimentary telescope system by the 12-13th centuries at the latest, and it's not like a tube with some lenses at each end is the most complicated idea in the world. When the idea was finally picked up it shortly led to an explosion in physics and astronomical research since you could see things not previously possible. So, if you have some clever Muslim or Chinese invent it earlier and then apply it--and since the Muslims and Chinese were very keen indeed on astronomical observations, this is not at all implausible--well, you could be looking at an early Scientific Revolution, and in Persia or China, as well. Given the oft-cited capabilities of the Song, in particular, who would be very well-located to take advantage of this...you might advance the Industrial Revolution quite a bit, too. And things proceed from there...
 
Looking at the twentieth century alone, you can gain a good 10 years by butterflying away the economic crises in Germany in the twenties and the US in the thirties. If Tesla had been less eccentric, you could gain 5 or more years there. To do any better, you would need to speed up the industrial revolution.

Start with Franklin's work on electricity in 1752. Suppose the mind of Michael Faraday is born earlier. Same for James Watt. For medicine, Edward Jenner and Louis Pasteur. It would take a collective influx of technology to ignite a cause-and-effect movement in modernization.

At some point, the nineteenth century developments in chemistry, physics and metallurgy happen earlier, and you sustain a movement to the modern world.

So, the changes would need to begin before the late 1700's.

Edit:

Modernization requires engineering, or applied science to evolve separately from the basic sciences. In 1850, engineering meant some mix of construction, hydrology, architecture and surveying. By 1910, the four primary disciplines had become defined (civil, mechanical, electrical, chemical) and from there technology moves fast.
 
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I'm thinking the Professor's probably right about if Rome didn't gobble Greece. The world's first successful representative democracy, in Greece, was coming to be powerful all too late and was conquered by Rome. When the Roman Republic was hacked, then, that threw the whole world back to monarchies and chiefdoms, nothing like as good for technology, or even stability (Isaac's Empire's still a monarchy, but has some checks and balances).

Hero of Alexandria's steam engine development went nowhere because the Roman Empire had bad support for innovation, being an unchecked monarchy by then. The earlier Roman Republic was better at inventing things, but stricly specialized in war.

I'm afraid trying to get really early things without more thorough changes is harder than it looks. Consider how far Babbage got on his Difference Engine - it was a good idea, of course, but both premature in terms of practical buildability and theoretical support.

A more recent possibility I've been interested in might be to get the UK to produce more, either by giving it a much faster reform curve, or by getting a more linked, earlier Commonwealth, so the Empah as a whole could do brain work instead of just the UK. I haven't YET figured out how to do either yet, though, because of lack of early reform competition, and the Imperial cornerstone of racism.
 
How about this for a single POD.

Suppose, circa 1760, somebody creates the galvanic cell. Several cells in series produce enough voltage to create a spark. The correlation with electricity is proven. You provide a dual impetus to the sciences of chemistry and electricity at a time when the key players in the field are still debating phlogiston.

Next, you pave the way for a telegraph set in the eighteenth century and the faster deployment of technology.
 
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