Latest POD for a Central Powers Victory?

Hi, I was wondering when was the latest chance in the timeline of World War I for the Powers to defeat the the Allies? After the Americans showed up in France was there really much of a chance for the Germans to win on the Western front? Also, What could have prevented the complete collapse of Austria Hungary in October and November of 1918?
 
Hi, I was wondering when was the latest chance in the timeline of World War I for the Powers to defeat the the Allies? After the Americans showed up in France was there really much of a chance for the Germans to win on the Western front? Also, What could have prevented the complete collapse of Austria Hungary in October and November of 1918?

Theoretically they could have won the Continental war in Spring 1918, before the AEF grew into a major army. But it's a long shot and the window of opportunity is narrow.

By 1918 Austria-Hungary pretty much depends on German life support. If the Germans are too heavily committed elsewhere to provide this (as of course they were by Oct 1918) then it will fold.
 
If Foch doesn't fight the second battle of Marne, then Germany get's a free attack east of Paris which captures the decisive rail road at Reims(sp?) (not to mention prestige point of Reims(sp?)), which paves the way for Paris in a matter of weeks/months with an attack to the west.

Historically, Petin was in a spirit to abandon Paris after the German 1918 attacks. I wouldn't call it a 'long shot', but it requires Foch to make the wrong decisition, and then Petin to throw in the towel.

I doubt this would happen unless there was a duel German offensive after the German victory at Marne with one element of the Kaisers army push west north of Paris to Amiens spliting the English and French fronts and causing a general British retreat to the Channel.

With the French flank open, and Paris directly threatened before the Americans land in force, then the Frencg might surrender.


Of course they migh not, hoping for the Americans to arrive and bail france out, but they'll be in a general sh*t creek until that happens and the Germans will have the strategic initive.

EDIT: If the Kaiser was smart, having marched into Paris he would call off the war with a conditional armistace saying that this war had gone on too long and cost too many lives, so for the sake of Europe peace talks need to take place. By pre-empting the Americans from playing a decisive roll in the Great War then he can hopefully marginalise their position at the resultant talks, and may even use the calling of a conditional armistace under the rules that America removes itself from the war, otherwise Paris will be leveled (holding the city hostage). Of course Germany will need to appoligise and pay reperations for those American lives lost during the war, but in general it will have been a stalemate victory with Germany perhaps keeping some nominal territories, but much going back the 1914 borders thus causing history to note modern war as the most fruitless endevour since so many millions lost their lives for ultimatly no gain.

It will definatly crush German imperailism for a long time.
 
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oberdada

Gone Fishin'
Theoretically they could have won the Continental war in Spring 1918, before the AEF grew into a major army. But it's a long shot and the window of opportunity is narrow.

I can see this smal possibility for Germany defeating France, but this isn't enough for a Cantral Powers Victory. It would have been in 1914/early 1915, but not very likely in 1918.
 
I can see this smal possibility for Germany defeating France, but this isn't enough for a Cantral Powers Victory. It would have been in 1914/early 1915, but not very likely in 1918.


I specified "the continental war". Agreed in 1918 they couldn't defeat GB and US outside Europe.
 
1918 "victory"

IMVHO, the best Central Powers "victory" would be a near draw, with peace negotiated. For THAT, Germany needs a military success--a major one.

A win for the Central Powers isn't impossible--strange things happen in war--but would likely be refered in the history books (depending on which side you're on) as "The Miracle of '18" or "The Disiaster of '18."
 
Barring a much earlier Russian collapse, or the USA joining the Central Powers, I can't see much realistic chance for the CP to have actually won the war after the [modified] Schlieffen Plan failed in 1914: A draw, maybe, but not a win...
 

Dorozhand

Banned
Italy joins the central powers in 1915. That's the latest I can think for the Germans to acheive a real and substantial "victory" in the traditional sense.

Austra-Hungary doesn't have to deal with Italy and can concentrate on Russia and Serbia, both of which get defeated quicker.

The Germans can concentrate, as a result, more forces on the western front, since A-H would be more able to fight the eastrn front competantly.

Germany and Italy launch a double offensive against France, with Germany winning a battle at Ypres and proceeding to attack Calais, and Italy attacks Nice/Savoy. If Nice/Savoy is a relatively easy catch, then Italy might go for Marseilles in the south or, if they are smart, Dijon in the North. If the Italians can take Dijon and meet with German forces in Alsace-Lorraine, then they can launch a third and final offensive. This would gut France and drive the British back to the coast (and maybe even out of the war).

If Russia wasn't already gone by this point, they could make easy work of them.

The war would end with Germany annexing Luxembourg and perhaps Belgium. If the Kaiser has big enough balls, he might decide to gobble up some northern French departments, and the rest of Alsace-Lorraine. There would be a network of puppet states in Russia, and maybe some Austrian territorial annexation there. I could imagine an Austrian puppet state in the Ukraine.
Japan might be made to return German Pacific islands.
Italy would certainly annex Nice/Savoy, and if they had enough balls, might even annex the entire area east of the Rhone.
I don't know if German would make many annexations in the east. Maybe Poland would be annexed as a semi-autonomous German state (similar to Bavaria).
 
Barring a much earlier Russian collapse, or the USA joining the Central Powers, I can't see much realistic chance for the CP to have actually won the war after the [modified] Schlieffen Plan failed in 1914: A draw, maybe, but not a win...


A draw effectively is a CP win.

The CP hold virtually all Belgium, plus Serbia, Rumania and valuable chunks of France and Russia. OTOH the Allies' only bargaining chips are some largely worthless German colonies and a small corner of the Ottoman Empire. If the CP cannot be dislodged from their conquests, they have effectively won. For the Allies it is not enough to hold their own. Anything less than a clear cut military victory is in practice a defeat.

There certainly wouldn't have been any need for America to join the CP. In 1917/18 France's GDP was declining sharply (much as Russia's had done in 1916/17) and she was heavily dependent on British loans which in turn were made possible only by Britain borrowing from the US. Had the US loans dried up (as they were starting to do in the Winter of 1916/17) Germany is likely to win on the Continent, leaving Britain to fight alone, under conditions in some ways worse than 1940/1.
 
EDIT: If the Kaiser was smart, having marched into Paris he would call off the war with a conditional armistace saying that this war had gone on too long and cost too many lives, so for the sake of Europe peace talks need to take place. By pre-empting the Americans from playing a decisive roll in the Great War then he can hopefully marginalise their position at the resultant talks, and may even use the calling of a conditional armistace under the rules that America removes itself from the war, otherwise Paris will be leveled (holding the city hostage). Of course Germany will need to appoligise and pay reperations for those American lives lost during the war, but in general it will have been a stalemate victory with Germany perhaps keeping some nominal territories, but much going back the 1914 borders thus causing history to note modern war as the most fruitless endevour since so many millions lost their lives for ultimatly no gain.

It will definatly crush German imperailism for a long time.

apologise & reparations would mean its not a draw, but cp loses, so not gonna happen. you also seem to forget Brest-Litovsk, if Germany is doing the negotiations in a position of strength, there will be no reparations, the most likely would be return to the status quo ante bellum which means each side pays his own (at least on western front), in the east Germany would keep its gains from Brest-Litovsk. I could even imagine germany and its former enemies cooperating in fighting the reds in russia.
 
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