Latest Imperial China could've rebounded?

China was once militarily and technologically superior to Europe, but by the 19th Century China was being kicked around by the mostly Western imperialist powers. What's the latest date China could have become a great power, ideally in the 19th Century, no later than like 1900, and without becoming a republic?
 
I would say they had a chance of rebounding up until the defeat to Japan during the First Sino-Japanese war.
 
Well the Chinese could have made use of gunpowder, and their early firearms more effectively that alone could have secured China's place as a regional great power pretty effectively in the early 1300's.


The Chinese also have access to tons of coal and other strategic resources in similar deposits to what was available in Europe (easy to access mines that are near the surface) which if exploited properly could have lead to a earlier industrial revolution then what happened historically in Europe.


The Chinese could have also maintained their position as a major maritime power instead of scrapping their navies which would have allowed them to command the seas, and dictate to the Europeans who is allowed access to trade with their client states. The combination of all three advantages would have allowed the Chinese a chance to keep pace or perhaps even lead the technological innovations that were radically reshaping Europe, and the navy would have allowed the Chinese to maintain their tributary states which I believe the loss of those prefered markets and the scrapping of the navy ended any hope of China reigning as a equal or counter balance to Europe
 
The popular image of the late Qing being solely a period of stagnation and corruption into decadence isn't true. The most obvious answer would be the Guangxu Restoration and Hundred Days of Reform of 1898, which was at the time lauded both in China and abroad as the counterpart to the Meiji Restoration. Alas, it fell to Cixi's manipulations and Guangxu was confined to a pavilion for the rest of his life.

It's speculated that idle banter of merging China, Japan, the USA, and British Empire into a global superstate run by a council of 100 was seized upon by Cixi to scupper the reforms. Needless to say, the failed reforms turned many reformists who previously supported a constitutional monarchy into revolutionaries.

The Qing already made significant progress in industrializing its economy and modernizing its military during the 1900s, and were it not for the Xinhai Revolution it's probable they would have succeeded. Ironically it was one of these modernized army units which first seized Wuchang and then telegraphed army units in other provinces. So the strict answer is, the rebels inside the New Army get cold feet.
 
I'm not sure about the very latest, but the Qing Dynasty could be saved at least as late as the 1770s-1780s. Around that time, an extremely corrupt minister (Heshen or Haishan or something like that) embezzled most of the Imperial Treasury. This severely weakened the Qing's ability to crush local rebellions, which led to internal instability and stagnation at a time when the Industrial Revolution was starting in Europe.
 
The popular image of the late Qing being solely a period of stagnation and corruption into decadence isn't true. The most obvious answer would be the Guangxu Restoration and Hundred Days of Reform of 1898, which was at the time lauded both in China and abroad as the counterpart to the Meiji Restoration.

Well, the Qing themselves were likely doomed by that point -- though if the OP permits China to simply move on to a new Imperial Dynasty, I'd say it works. (Then again, you could have a new dynasty take hold and meet most of the OP as late as 1912, according to the well known "Superpower China" TL.)
 

raharris1973

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...a "no Heshen" timeline could be really cool. It would remove the ending blemish on Qianlong's long and previously very successful reign.
 
Well, the Qing themselves were likely doomed by that point -- though if the OP permits China to simply move on to a new Imperial Dynasty, I'd say it works. (Then again, you could have a new dynasty take hold and meet most of the OP as late as 1912, according to the well known "Superpower China" TL.)

The Qing was never "doomed" any time before the Xinhai rebellion spread. Japan suffered all the same problems as China did during the same period - encroaching foreign powers, an ossified and corrupt bureaucracy, weak central government, internal rebellions, and surging demands among the rising middle class. On the eve of the Sino-Japanese War virtually all foreign observers concluded China's vastly larger and more modern navy would eat Japan for breakfast, which almost did occur IOTL even with China's cartoonishly bad performance.
 
Well, the Qing themselves were likely doomed by that point -- though if the OP permits China to simply move on to a new Imperial Dynasty, I'd say it works. (Then again, you could have a new dynasty take hold and meet most of the OP as late as 1912, according to the well known "Superpower China" TL.)

The Hundred Days' Reform, tardy and reluctant as it was, was nonetheless quite a potent force, and had it gone differently could very possibly have preserved the Qing Dynasty (which admittedly likely would have had to become quite a ways more integrated into Chinese culture to truly weather the storm from the reaction of Han nationalism against symbols of the Manchu Qing).

The best late-period change though probably would have been averting Qing participation in the Boxer Rebellion. The Rebellion itself was not anywhere near as damaging as the actual consequences of it, notably the utter demoralization resulting from the capture of the Forbidden City and the Boxer Indemnity which hamstrung any efforts by the Qing government to lead an economic reform and recovery of China.
 
...a "no Heshen" timeline could be really cool. It would remove the ending blemish on Qianlong's long and previously very successful reign.

The Qing's financial problems were far deeper than simply Heshen and his corruption. It would, however, make Qianlong look better in retrospect.

As to the OP, I'd say the 1890s. Make a slightly more gradual version of the hundred days reform across the decade and get rid of Cixi so the conservatives in the court are too divided to make an opposition.
 
Just to be completely clear, when we speak of China, do we mean exclusively Imperial China, or just China in general?

As EternalCynic mentions, right up until the Xinhai Revolution, China was rapidly modernizing and industrializing, however, if we mean any time before the Warlord era, then arguably, well, butterflying the descent into warlordism after the Xinhai Revolution is certainly far from impossible.

With regards to Imperial China specifically, now, it is important to remember that during the late 19th and early 20th century, anti-Manchu nationalism remained very much a central part of the ideology of the most well-educated, modernized, revolutionary, and even powerful classes of Chinese. Despite reforms undertaken by the Qing, overall, how long Imperial China survives, if indeed, it can survive, is quite a different question from whether China becomes a strong power in the 20th century.
 
Thanks, all.

Well, the Qing themselves were likely doomed by that point -- though if the OP permits China to simply move on to a new Imperial Dynasty, I'd say it works. (Then again, you could have a new dynasty take hold and meet most of the OP as late as 1912, according to the well known "Superpower China" TL.)

Oh yeah, a new dynasty would be alright.

Just to be completely clear, when we speak of China, do we mean exclusively Imperial China, or just China in general?

Well, I was kind of wanting China to remain a monarchy, in this scenario.
 
I'd definitely say a period before 1900. 1880s being the very latest and would still take a lot of time and effort.

I have felt the revolt of the Three Feudatories had potential.
 
Yep, Cixi is definitely a big obstacle to reformation.

She was already old when The Hundred Days' Reform on Sep 1898 happened and should she died before the reform or became politically impotent then the reformation would likely succeeded.

I also agree with Malta that the revolt of the Three Feudatories was another important moment.

It might also better to have a new dynasty.
 
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raharris1973

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I have felt the revolt of the Three Feudatories had potential.

A three feudatories successful overthrow of the Qing has alot of AH potential.

One could use it, if you end up with a new regime having leaders at the level of Kangxi and Qianlng, to do a Sino-Wank.

On the other hand, if three feudatories revolt leads to prolonged chaos, it could quite well lead to accelerated European colonialism in East Asia, including the subjugation of southern China a la India.
 

raharris1973

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A three feudatories successful overthrow of the Qing has alot of AH potential.

One could use it, if you end up with a new regime having leaders at the level of Kangxi and Qianlng, to do a Sino-Wank.

Example - three feudatories revilt succeeds and drives Qing north of the Great Wall. Ming pretender factions, including Koxinga and son's regime in Taiwan, participate.

Due to vagaries of circumstance, none of the feudatories manage to establish a stable line of succession, rather a Ming pretender under the protection of the Cheng regime on Taiwan establishes what will become the new imperial line. Furthermore, through it's eclectic mix of fighting technologies and deadlings with Europeans as a pirate state, the new regime incoporates imperialistic, expansionistic, mercantilistic ideas into its core identity. And adopts Catholicism. The new Chinese dynasty builds up a reconquista like fervor to wipe out the Manchu remnants, aggressively deal with other enemies, and expand.

For there the new China becomes a full participant along with the European states in global imperial rivalries. By 1800 it has at least a smattering of colonies around the globe and clearly overpowers European influence within the western Pacific, Southeast Asia and India.

Voila
 
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