Latest Chance of Splitting Off Hungary From Austria Before 1866?

Knowing very little of Hungarian history I'm looking for when is the latest reasonable time (I'm trying to introduce as few butterflies as possible) that you can split off Hungary from the Austrian Empire to become an independent country, possibly taking the provinces of Galicia and Bukovina as well. The best I can see so far is the Hungarian Revolution of 1848, either Austria does something that really annoys Russia so that they don't send their troops to help or round two flairs up again during the Crimean War when they're occupied elsewhere. That or Hungary with some kind of elected monarchy still in place decides on someone other than Franz Joseph I although that's a little early for my tastes.

The general aim is for thing to go pretty much as in our timeline except that Hungary goes its own way, the extant Austrian Empire crushes Prussia in the Austro-Prussian War - possibly getting chucked out of Hungary forces through some military reforms, Prussia gets cut down to size, and Austria enters into the Grossdeutschland (minus its Balkan lands) leading the German Confederation. Basically you're looking at a slower more pacific formation of Germany with a much less militaristic character and how that will affect things.

But for this to happen I need rid of those annoying Hungarians. :) Ideally I need to dispose of them a couple of years before the Austro-Prussian War so say 1864 or before at the latest but preferably not decades in advance either if it can be helped. Anyone got any advice?
 
There was a loose league between Sardinia (later Italy), the Hungarian exiles and the Romanian left in the years after Villafranca. It didn't get far enough because Napoleon III wouldn't commit to it, but the exiles had established an officially tolerated presence in Romania and were waiting for the go-ahead; our side was promised the Bukovina and was hoping to get a good deal for the Romanians in Transylvania. I only became aware of it from studying the reports of the British consul in Bucharest; it seems the exiles and the Italian arms being delivered to them caused quite a stir.

Concerning Galicia, the Hungarians didn't want it. Either it stays Austrian or the Poles take over, in which case a Russian intervention is guaranteed.

But I don't see how Austria could still win the war with Prussia and am getting rather tired of so many people ignoring the high plausibility of a scenario in which Bismarck doesn't become Prussian prime-minister to begin with.
 
Knowing very little of Hungarian history I'm looking for when is the latest reasonable time (I'm trying to introduce as few butterflies as possible) that you can split off Hungary from the Austrian Empire to become an independent country, possibly taking the provinces of Galicia and Bukovina as well. The best I can see so far is the Hungarian Revolution of 1848, either Austria does something that really annoys Russia so that they don't send their troops to help or round two flairs up again during the Crimean War when they're occupied elsewhere. That or Hungary with some kind of elected monarchy still in place decides on someone other than Franz Joseph I although that's a little early for my tastes.

The general aim is for thing to go pretty much as in our timeline except that Hungary goes its own way, the extant Austrian Empire crushes Prussia in the Austro-Prussian War - possibly getting chucked out of Hungary forces through some military reforms, Prussia gets cut down to size, and Austria enters into the Grossdeutschland (minus its Balkan lands) leading the German Confederation. Basically you're looking at a slower more pacific formation of Germany with a much less militaristic character and how that will affect things.

But for this to happen I need rid of those annoying Hungarians. :) Ideally I need to dispose of them a couple of years before the Austro-Prussian War so say 1864 or before at the latest but preferably not decades in advance either if it can be helped. Anyone got any advice?

Calling Susano . . .
Kommen sie her, bitte.
 
You know I'd quite forgotten about this. Lets see if we can get it restarted... *Lays out some beer and sausage in the thread to attract Zee Germans* ;)
 
The best I can see so far is the Hungarian Revolution of 1848, either Austria does something that really annoys Russia so that they don't send their troops to help or round two flairs up again during the Crimean War when they're occupied elsewhere.

I don't think a Russian non-intervention would have helped. Hungary was losing by the time they intervened. So, 1848 without Russia, Hungary still loses, but it takes longer, there's more damage, more casualties and more resentment, but, paradoxically, less trouble with Hungary proper as there's no feeling that they've lost just because Russia intervened.

However, if you couple Russian non-intervention with intervention of other countries on the side of the Hungarians you could have a dismembered Austria. The problem with this, however, is that everyone (and their dog) had problems of their own at the time.
 
I don't think a Russian non-intervention would have helped. Hungary was losing by the time they intervened. So, 1848 without Russia, Hungary still loses, but it takes longer, there's more damage, more casualties and more resentment, but, paradoxically, less trouble with Hungary proper as there's no feeling that they've lost just because Russia intervened.

However, if you couple Russian non-intervention with intervention of other countries on the side of the Hungarians you could have a dismembered Austria. The problem with this, however, is that everyone (and their dog) had problems of their own at the time.

If the Hungarians don't waste away all of 1848, the Austrian goose is cooked:
the windows of opportunity is more or less in March and April 1848, once the emperor has had to leave Vienna and before the Ban is received at the cort-in-exile and pledges the Croatian regiment. If the Hungarians regiments are recalled in March 1848, the Austrian troops will remain bottled up in the Quadrilatero and the war in Italy is over; Prague got a kind of revolt at the same time as Vienna; and finally the Croats would be kept in line y the returning Hungarian regiments.

Obviously his means that the Austrian empire effectively ends in 1848, and - at best - its successor state is a union of sorts between Austria, Bohemia and Moravia: I cannot believe this rump state can stand up to Prussia.
 
The best way a Hungarian revolution could work is for the Croatians having a much lower opinion of the Austrians than they do OTL. Especially considering that during the 1814 Hungarian revolution the main general for the Austrian army was a Croatian Ban Josip Jelačić.
 
The best way a Hungarian revolution could work is for the Croatians having a much lower opinion of the Austrians than they do OTL. Especially considering that during the 1814 Hungarian revolution the main general for the Austrian army was a Croatian Ban Josip Jelačić.

And not only that. My greatgrandfather was a Croatian from Split who died 6 years ago at the age of 96. One time I asked him where was he from and he told me that he was Austrian. I asked which city he was from and he said from Split in Dalmatia. I then asked, but isn't it that in Croatia? He said yes and that he was Croatian, but that they considered themselves as Austrians as the proper Austrians did.

So how are you going to change that sounds difficult for me, especially with those hated Serbians next door.
 
Last edited:
Top