Latest ACW could have been delayed?
- Thread starter Dspoh001
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It's a demographic issue. The Free states are growing faster than the Slave states. Lincoln was able to get an electoral majority without a single slave state. The states that became the confederacy were losing congressional seats through apportionment. That situation was only going to accelerate.
The Civil War, in my opinion, was not inevitable. I believe the Federal government could have solved the slavery question as early as the Nullification Crisis, or as late as the end of the 19th century if the Federal government passed something like the Corwin Amendment. The Civil War reached its explosive proportions because of the balancing act Congress tried to play from the Missouri Compromise.
Please note that I'm not criticizing the actions the Federal government took. I'm just saying the whole Slavery issue could have gone a hundred different ways.
Please note that I'm not criticizing the actions the Federal government took. I'm just saying the whole Slavery issue could have gone a hundred different ways.
I'm no expert but I think that something like the Crittenden Compromise being passed, and earlier than when it was proposed OTL (say 1859-60, or even much earlier still), could push it back for a while. (Beyond a few years quite literally anything can happen, so I'm not going to speculate beyond that). Its my understanding that abolitionists still weren't really a majority in the North at the start of the war and much of the Union was more for preserving the Union, at the start, at least. With slavery constitutionalized there isn't really an option for the abolitionists but, well, secession, which I don't think they would have had the support for for a while.
This is sort of the basis for a TL I've been tinkering with, with a later ACW coinciding with an earlier Gilded Age, and the results of that.
This is sort of the basis for a TL I've been tinkering with, with a later ACW coinciding with an earlier Gilded Age, and the results of that.
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Absolute latest is probably 1864, and thats only if a Southern Democrat wins in 1860.
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My personal favorite scenario is Wendell Phillips' Nightmare, by @David T. I'm personally in the camp that the Civil War could be indefinitely delayed to the point it never happens.
Though by 1864 there will be a Homestead Act on the statute book. Iirc an attempt to override Buchanan's veto had only narrowly failed in the Senate, and the new Senate is likely to contain more Republicans even if Breckenridge becomes POTUS.
Also the battle for Kansas is essentially over, so that it's only a question of how long until (free) Statehood. So by then things may be looking up for the Democrats.