As most probably know, IOTL the US Department of Defense proposed a series of false flag terrorist attacks in the US (plane hijackings, bombings, and other forms of violent terrorism) that they would claim were committed by the Cuban government, as a pretext to invade. However, the Kennedy Administration ultimately rejected these proposals.
But what if they had been utilized, only at a later date? What would the Soviet response be to, say, Ronald Reagan invading Cuba with a seemingly strong justification? Would this lead to nuclear war, or would that be too over the line?
 
The big trouble with a false flag attack is that they rarely are completely convincing. A series of false flag attacks would be incredibly difficult to pull off, and the most likely outcome is that they would be blown.

Consequently, the most likely outcome is that a lot of people in the USA would become aware that the US Department of Defense was killing US citizens in order to provoke a war with Cuba. This might not be popular. Obviously, there will be those who believe the authorities, regardless of evidence, and those who disbelieve ditto.

I'll leave it to the Americans to decide if the US public would respond negatively to such a discovery.
 
A truly insane idea. Absolutely no way this would be kept secret, and once the truth came out... Speaking as an American, it would be difficult for anyone proven to be involved in this to avoid being strung up. Their names would make Benedict Arnold someone schools were named after by comparison.
 
The big trouble with a false flag attack is that they rarely are completely convincing. A series of false flag attacks would be incredibly difficult to pull off, and the most likely outcome is that they would be blown.

Consequently, the most likely outcome is that a lot of people in the USA would become aware that the US Department of Defense was killing US citizens in order to provoke a war with Cuba. This might not be popular. Obviously, there will be those who believe the authorities, regardless of evidence, and those who disbelieve ditto.

I'll leave it to the Americans to decide if the US public would respond negatively to such a discovery.

A truly insane idea. Absolutely no way this would be kept secret, and once the truth came out... Speaking as an American, it would be difficult for anyone proven to be involved in this to avoid being strung up. Their names would make Benedict Arnold someone schools were named after by comparison.

These points in mind, let me phrase the question differently then. Let's say the invasion wasn't the result of a false flag terrorist attack, but (for whatever reason) happened no less. Does the Soviet Union start WW3 in response, regardless of the circumstances? Is Cuba their red line, or could a major conflict be avoided?
 
In 1962 the USSR was not going to go to war with the USA over Cuba. A new Berlin blockade maybe but actual shooting with troops moving across the inner German border, no way. The Russians knew that if it came to nukes, and it probably would, the US might get hurt some, Western Europe hurt more, and the USSR destroyed as a functioning society. The only question in a nuclear exchange would be how few (including zero) nukes would land in the USA. NATO invading East Germany, that was a red line. Castro being tossed out, no. Once the USSR had reasonable parity with the US in nukes with missiles for delivery, its different but in the early 60s - no.
 
I'm finding it really difficult to imagine a situation where Cuba would take action against America in America without the Soviet Union not being aware of it. If the Soviet Union is aware of such actions, such actions will get nipped in the bud quickly.

But we'll say that somehow the Soviet leadership wasn't aware of what's going on, and that somehow the Cuba leadership decided on a suicidal course, and that somehow the USA hasn't taken action at an earlier stage such that it can be dealt with using a lower response level. These are all pretty amazing levels of unlikelihood, but for the sake of the question, we'll let them be so.

Strangely, neither the USSR nor the USA were that keen on kicking off WW3 if it could be avoided. If the USA were about to invade Cuba, you can be pretty sure that the USSR would be kept informed, and assured what the limits of the operation were. Since Cuba would have been acting independently of the USSR, the USSR is unlikely to be inclined to be very happy with it.

Cuba was useful to the USSR, but not vital to its survival. The USSR is not going to commit suicide over Cuba. Of course, the cost to the USA is another matter entirely. The quality of the US military varied depending upon exactly when in the Reagan era you're talking about. Early on, and it's really not that brilliant. Better than it was in the mid 1970s, but then, that's not exactly difficult. By the mid 1980s, the quality had improved noticeably. Whenever it happened, the outcome would not be in doubt, but the cost of achieving it could vary widely.
 
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