Later Israel/Palestine Border Readjustments?

Okay, this is a bit of an odd one, but would it be possible, like in the early 2000s or what to readjust the boundaries for Israel/Palestine? I imagine it'd be really freaking difficult to achieve this, but let's say the US was led by someone who okay with the border readjustments to be fairer for Palestine?

Like, would it be possible to get something like the 2nd Bernadotte Plan or something like it implemented later or what?
 
Your POD is too late. By the early 2000s there are simply too many settlements in the West Bank. This is basically why the peace process collapsed in 1999. Ehud Barak could not offer enough land to create a viable Palestinian State without suffering massive political repercussions in Israel. Arafat could not accept the non-viable state Barak offered without suffering massive political repercussions in Palestine. Possibly a more robust Camp David process could have resolved this before the settlements really expanded in the 80s.
 
Your POD is too late. By the early 2000s there are simply too many settlements in the West Bank. This is basically why the peace process collapsed in 1999. Ehud Barak could not offer enough land to create a viable Palestinian State without suffering massive political repercussions in Israel. Arafat could not accept the non-viable state Barak offered without suffering massive political repercussions in Palestine. Possibly a more robust Camp David process could have resolved this before the settlements really expanded in the 80s.

Well, there was a good chunk of southern land and that's relatively scarce of people. Though how knowledgable are you on this subject?
 
With regard to the Bernadotte Plan, why would Israel give up the Negev and Eilat. That'd be crazy.

The "Napkin Map" is the most likely boundary you'd get. If Abbas won the 2006 Palestinian Election and avoided the Palestinian Civil War, maybe the Bush Administration could push it through. Maybe Israel could cede more territory in the south and around Gaza.
 
With regard to the Bernadotte Plan, why would Israel give up the Negev and Eilat. That'd be crazy.

The "Napkin Map" is the most likely boundary you'd get. If Abbas won the 2006 Palestinian Election and avoided the Palestinian Civil War, maybe the Bush Administration could push it through. Maybe Israel could cede more territory in the south and around Gaza.

Still implausible. You would have had to evacuate 56,000 settlers. The 2005 Gaza withdrawal involved 8,000 and was HUGELY controversial.
 
Like, would it be possible to get something like the 2nd Bernadotte Plan or something like it implemented later or what?

Do you realize that implementing the 2nd Bernadotte Plan in the 2000s would involve displacing millions of Israelis?

Basically, once a few years have passed since the 1949 ceasefire, any boundaries are going to look something like the Green Line, plus or minus (as, indeed, all OTL plans have done). The Oslo Accords in the early 90s basically de facto set those borders as being the basis of negotiations.

Further, "fairness" is a poor concept in these negotiations, because each side has a very different idea about what's fair (many or most Israelis would say that "fair" was the land that Israel managed to defend after being attacked, i.e. Green Line borders, and most Palestinians would say that "fair" was one state, Jews optional - and some Israelis would agree, except they'd swap "Jews" for "Arabs").

Honestly, looking back at the partition plans for the Mandate of Palestine, I'm hard-pressed to say that fairness was involved for any of them. Most of them involved carving out a majority-Jewish region and giving the rest to the Arabs, without any regard for "fairness" or "balance". The Peel Commission and both Bernadotte plans basically involved giving Israel the coastal plain and the Galilee, with the rest going to the Arabs; the 1948 plan, though it looks more generous to the Jews on a map, was actually far more generous to the Arabs, since it gave the Jews the arid, sparsely populated Negev in exchange for a large chunk of the agriculturally productive, relatively densely populated Galilee.

I'm actually wondering if fairness has ever been a principle in this sort of thing. Certainly, I don't think it was for, for example, the Dayton Accords.

Still implausible. You would have had to evacuate 56,000 settlers. The 2005 Gaza withdrawal involved 8,000 and was HUGELY controversial.

It was controversial but it happened. Hypothetically, a non-comatose Sharon could form a grand coalition with Shinui and Labor to withdraw from settlements. It would be a real shit show, but it could be done, and the IDF would do it (today...I'm not sure. I don't want to sound like I'm peddling conspiracy theories, but the last decade has seen a lot of settlers and other Datiim Leumim into the officer ranks).

The aftermath would either see the Likud collapse, or all the other right parties abandon it, or both, but some Sharon-led centrist rump-Likud could still end up doing very well in the future. The Israelis who support the settlements are louder, but I think those who oppose them or are neutral are more numerous.
 
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Hypothetically, a non-comatose Sharon could form a grand coalition with Shinui and Labor to withdraw from settlements. It would be a real shit show, but it could be done, and the IDF would do it (today...I'm not sure. I don't want to sound like I'm peddling conspiracy theories, but the last decade has seen a lot of settlers and other Datiim Leumim into the officer ranks).

The aftermath would either see the Likud collapse, or all the other right parties abandon it, or both, but some Sharon-led centrist rump-Likud could still end up doing very well in the future. The Israelis who support the settlements are louder, but I think those who oppose them or are neutral are more numerous.


Well, there was the speculation that Sharon was planning on pulling a unilateral withdrawal to behind the Separation Barrier prior to his stroke. He had no problem with telling the settlers to fuck off and was probably one of the few people who could do so successfully.
 
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