Late '70's/eary 80's Arab-Israeli war? Possible? And how possible did people think it was?

[NHBL]

In the late 70's and early 80's, through say 1984, post Camp David accords, how possible would it be for another Arab-Israeli war to occur?
If so, what might trigger it?
Just as important for my timeline is how likely various nations, especially the USA, Israel, and the USSR would think it is?

I'm working on an ASB timeline but trying to keep it grounded in reality. How successful I am at that, I don't know, but it's fun to write. (If interested, it's "The Masquerade" which is here: https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/masquerade-how-hard-would-this-be.433844/)

By Arab-Israeli war, I mean a conventional (or worse) war between one or more Middle Eastern nations (Even if not actually Arab) and Israel, not just terrorism and the like.

 

[Dingus Khan]

Does the Lebanese Civil War not count as a major Arab-Israeli conflict?

 

[walmart]

Does the Lebanese Civil War not count as a major Arab-Israeli conflict?

Not the same as the other wars

 

[Crowbar Six]

Not the same as the other wars

That was really a proxy war between Israel and Syria with some direct combat between the two. The Israeli air operations in the Bekaa Operation Mole Cricket 19 actually formed the basis for the initial Air Campaign in Operation Desert Storm.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Mole_Cricket_19

Lots of indirect combat between Christian Phalangists and the PLO and other groups.

 

[NHBL]

I wouldn't count the Lebanese Civil War. I'm thinking of full blown wars where ground forces are engaged, such as the Six Day War and the Yom Kippur War--conflicts that can result in near destruction of one or more belligerent's armed forces and threaten direct intervention of superpowers.
Besides the likelihood of such a war, I am wondering, if anyone knows, how likely the superpowers would think such a war is.

 

[Khanzeer]

Anwar Sadat is assassinated by a group of extremis who also kill our bunch of generals at the same time
General chaos ensue and The Egyptian army mutinies, with a section of it very unhappy about peace with Israel
They demand immediate war against Israel to "To wipe the stain off disgraceful surrender at the hands of corrupt Pharoah sadat"
Backed by Libya, Iran and cautious encouragement by Syria.
The pro peace faction of Egyptian generals are at a huge disadvantage looking to lose favor of majority of population and support of significant part of army
The attitude of the moderate generals also grows hostile towards Israel to appease local sentiments
Attitude of Israeli govt does not help as they are cracking down on a Palestinian rising at the same time ( inspired by events in Egypt)

 

[Oberleutnant]

I would imagine that Lebanon had the potential to turn into a direct shooting war between Israel and Syria, even if it didn't turn out that way IOTL (though as mentioned there was some direct engagements, including a few tank battles between the two)

 

[Khanzeer]

Also Egypt of 1981 has 35 F4 phantoms and 78 mirage IIIE/5 so airpower significantly more powerful

 

[Khanzeer]

I would imagine that Lebanon had the potential to turn into a direct shooting war between Israel and Syria, even if it didn't turn out that way IOTL (though as mentioned there was some direct engagements, including a few tank battles between the two)

Lots of time Syrians and Israelis backed the same side in Lebanon

 

[Crowbar Six]

Also Egypt of 1981 has 35 F4 phantoms and 78 mirage IIIE/5 so airpower significantly more powerful

Maintenance was not terrific. There were some hair raising stories about EAF maintenance practices. It is not the hardware but the effectiveness and ability of the aircrew that count.

 

[Khanzeer]

^ very true
But when u have a foreign policy based on emotions , such concerns are brushed aside
F6 I think was the fav mount of EAF during that time I read once, could be exaggeration

 

[Falecius]

I wouldn't count the Lebanese Civil War. I'm thinking of full blown wars where ground forces are engaged, such as the Six Day War and the Yom Kippur War--conflicts that can result in near destruction of one or more belligerent's armed forces and threaten direct intervention of superpowers.
Besides the likelihood of such a war, I am wondering, if anyone knows, how likely the superpowers would think such a war is.

The Israeli invasion of Lebanon quite fits this description, except the ground forces they engaged (with the stated aim of destroying them) were not, technically, the armed forces of a state. Threat of direct intervention by superpowers if things escalated further in Lebanon was quite realistic, and the possibility of further escalation (as in, Israel and Syria coming to blows directly) indeed existed. Also, Israeli forces were literally besieging the capital of an Arab League member state. I'd that counts for defining an "Arab-Israeli war", even if it was unquestionably very different from the earlier conflicts under this name.

 

[NHBL]

The Israeli invasion of Lebanon quite fits this description, except the ground forces they engaged (with the stated aim of destroying them) were not, technically, the armed forces of a state. Threat of direct intervention by superpowers if things escalated further in Lebanon was quite realistic, and the possibility of further escalation (as in, Israel and Syria coming to blows directly) indeed existed. Also, Israeli forces were literally besieging the capital of an Arab League member state. I'd that counts for defining an "Arab-Israeli war", even if it was unquestionably very different from the earlier conflicts under this name.

I suppose it counts, but I'm more thinking of the wars like Yom Kippur and the Six Day War--the sort where, if things go BAD< the possibility of the Arabs taking a chink of Israel--or more than a chunk--or the possibility of Israel occupying more of a major Arab power's land is possible--an all out war. Appreciate the ideas from everyone; some may well find their way into The Masquerade. Keep 'em coming!

 

[Falecius]

I suppose it counts, but I'm more thinking of the wars like Yom Kippur and the Six Day War--the sort where, if things go BAD< the possibility of the Arabs taking a chink of Israel--or more than a chunk--or the possibility of Israel occupying more of a major Arab power's land is possible--an all out war. Appreciate the ideas from everyone; some may well find their way into The Masquerade. Keep 'em coming!

Well, in that case, an escalation of the Lebanese conflict into a direct military clash between Israel and Syria involving a Golan front is the most likely option - it may happen either in 1978 or 1982-83. The main problem is that neither side really wanted that. The Syrian regime felt (correctly) that they could not face Israel alone with anything approaching a chance of victory, while Israel would have considered another war with Syria a costly distraction to the main objective - the "irregular" war with the PLO. As the PLO and Syria were rarely on the same page, despite Damascus' pro-Palestinian rhetoric, it was possible for Tel Aviv to focus on one enemy only and work diplomatically to avoid reigniting the Golan front.
In order to change that, you need to change the power equation so that Syria feels confident enough to consider a more confrontational stance - the easiest way is to give Damascus another Arab ally, and the viable options for that are really limited - the only countries that work are Egypt and Iraq. A different Iraqi regime, mending the Baathist split, and avoiding the war with Iran, might create the scenario. Otherwise, the Camp David peace process somehow fails and Egypt stays aligned with the "refusal front" (and possibly the Eastern Bloc). This is difficult but I suppose possible.

 

[starman]

I think a major Arab-Israel war was unlikely for at least three reasons. First, things were hard enough fighting Israel with Egypt part of the arab coalition. Without Egypt the arabs stand almost no chance. Unless something like what Khanzeer posted occurs, Syria and other nations are likely to be deterred. (Btw for a different take on how Sadat gets dumped and Egypt reenters the arab fold, see my blog post Alternate Mideast Scenario 1980s).
Second, from 1980 onward Iraq is tied down fighting Iran. The Iraqis were not renowned for their battlefield prowess. Still, Iraqi intervention may have saved Syria in '73, by diverting IDF strength from the forces defending Damascus. Aware of the importance of Iraq, as well as Egypt, Syria would almost certainly not have initiated anything. It would've preferred not to have had to fight Israel in '82.
A third issue was internal strife in Syria. It was very serious in 1979-82.

 

[mike of mass]

Any such scenario has to bring the Egyptians back into the Arab war camp. Possibly a muslim brotherhood coup. The Arabs would also need a super/great power patron. The USSR being on the decline in the 80s meant no major resupplies and little pressure on the US/NATO to reign in the Israelis.