Last chances of a Byzantine revival?

So, recently I have been quite obsessed with the Byzantine Empire. I have been thinking quite a lot about what were their chances to survive the Turks and turn the tide. Obviously by 1401 it's too late, but was there a real chance in the last 50-100 years prior to that?

Maybe the Nicopolis crusade succeeds, and something leads to the decline of Venetian and Genoan influence in the region. Any thoughts, or had the population of the area simply gone too far to be revived and a POD far earlier would be needed? Or are there any timelines on this site about something similar to this?
 
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I wouldn't argue 1401 is necessarily too late, but it depends on your definition. If you're looking for a second recovery to pre-Manzikert borders or something, 1401 is too late. But it can still exist as a state with some PODs. A nastier Ottoman civil war, a successful Varna Crusade, etc.
 
In my opinion, it's going to take a shift in Byzantine politics on the scale of the French Revolution to solve any of its issues.

In 1400, or thereabouts, Byzantium is an economic protectorate of Venice and a military protectorate of the Ottomans. There's some friction because it's a protectorate in a strategic position, so it has slightly more influence than, say, the Balkan satellites of the Ottoman Empire later had... but it has as much chance of defeating them as Skanderbeg or Vlad the Impaler (and quite possibly less).

If the Crusade of Varna succeeds, somehow, in actually beating the Ottomans, I would sooner see the Byzantines ending as Cyprus did; absorbed by Venice after some neat politicking. Although I suppose it might linger on as a position similar to an imperial free city (but then under Venetian suzerain) in Constantinople until either a Bulgarian, new Greek or Turkish state takes over.

Although, of course, there's always the insane-luck option of a Greek/Orthodox revolt rising up in Greece or so after a particularly nasty Ottoman defeat (either against Timur or the westerners, although in either case a single defeat might not even suffice), at the same time as Venice and Aragon are otherwise occupied. In that case, a lower-nobility/popular revolt might rise up, take over Greece-proper, and nominally recognize Byzantine overlordship while effectively usurping power from the decrepit institutions in Constantinople. Such a state would presumably somewhat distrust both the Italians (who've lost Greece to the Turks precisely because noone trusts them, it seems) and the high nobility, but even then any interruption in Venetian or Turkish distraction in the first 10-20 years will lead to the state quickly being returned to subservience.

After 20 years under an energetic reformist ruler (who, preferably, avoids assasination AND the temptation to become Emperor in name as well as practice) in the vein, perhaps, of Matyas Hunyadi, the state might have a chance to become an unequal ally rather than an outright protectorate. From there, it's a matter of luck and skill to hold on for a few more decades of serious reform, until it can finally return to being a power on a level where it can actually start removing the Venetians from the Aegean and the Turks from Asia Minor. Retaking Crete or Trabzon is going to take a century of continuous luck in both rulers and politics, and by the time it's succeeded it's as much the Byzantine Empire as the Byzantine Empire is the Roman Empire or Turkey the Ottoman Empire.
 
avernte what you suggest simply isnt possible. Ater the civil war beetween John Kantakouzenos and John Paleologos, the byzantine military was exhausted. It was reduced to just morea and constantinople the city itself. At the same time in 1401 the population of onstantinople was less than ten thousand and by that point it was simply eight villages behind a wall. Gone were the great days. Even if a revolt occurs you can bet that would weaken the state even more and the ottomans would take it sooner. It doesnt matter how capable of a leader it has or how many reforms it undergoes. The manpower, logistical and resource base of the empire was simply not their not to mention it was bankrupt as well. Money is necessary to fund soldiers and make war after all.
For those thinking if timur destroys ottomans the byzantines would revive. Of course not. Lets see here Bulgaria has been utterly reduced to a shell of its former self, Serbia too has been reduced. Plus at least in the Balkans it was the ottomans who had the most powerfl armies. Unfortunatly for Byzantium by that point it was a matte of when not if it would be taken by ottomans or some other sucessor state.

Thats why civil war is the absolute latest pod because if that is averted then the byzantines will still have a base of manpower, resources, and more importantly money. The unity would also allow them to put up a better front against the ottomans and perhaps if the Emperor was more capable you could see a serb-bulgar-and byzantine allaince mount a defense of the balkans against the ottomans and perhaps een succeed in defeating the turkish forces. Even then the pod is far fetchved buut honestly thats the latest you can push for a surviving byzantium that retains some sense of independence or even rise from the ashes.
 
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