Last chance to get you back

So, I have a question. Assuming the following POD is plausible (I am not sure on the politics of the era), lets say Dems win the congress in '62, and McClellan wins in '64. Peace is declared. Assuming the Confederates don't attack, and anti-war fervor could be over by '68 (Lincoln the first Pres with non-consecutive terms, anyone?), what would be the earliest/latest chance for the Second War between the states to begin and end, with the Union returned to it's whole self?

As a side note, how exactly would CSA politics evolve? No central leader, but the state's representatives holding a sort of oligarchy? Davis somehow weasels his way to a second term? Let's assume Davis begins industrial programs as soon as possible, but that they would likely be stopped by a successor, if there was one.
 
The only way the Dems win congress or McClellan wins in '64 is if the war is perceived to be lost. An ASB example might be ... Lee is placed in command instead of Beauregard (and he's senior to Joe Johnston). He's able to force McDowell to retreat away from Washington somehow and captures the city in July 1861. Let's say he then captures Baltimore and gets Maryland to secede, There won't be much of a western campaign in 1862. The Union will be totally focused on the east and defending the Ohio river. Successful Soulthern retention of the DC/Baltimore/Maryland area and defeat of the Union army in Pennsylvania (Gettysburg 1862 anyone) and the war might end in 1862.

THis is all so ASB .... but you asked for a rationale.
 
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