Largest Possible Soviet Union

What is the greatest extent to which the Soviet Union could expand its borders (directly, i.e. not through puppet governments like the Warsaw Pact, but through annexing more SSRs or annexing additional land to existing SSRs) without straying into ASB territory?
 
This really depends on the PoD.

Mongolia and East Turkestan are easiest.

I could see Gilan, Iranian Azerbaijan, and maybe other bits of northern Iran.

With the right butterflies during the Russian Civil War, Finland could be part of the USSR.

Possibly parts of Poland, depending on how the Polish-Soviet War goes.

More of East Prussia is plausible.

Maybe bits of eastern Anatolia.

Svalbard could have ended up Russian.

Manchuria, and possibly bits of China, if the CCP isn't as successful during the Chinese Civil War.
 
What is the greatest extent to which the Soviet Union could expand its borders ..... without straying into ASB territory?

I think it depends on what you think of as ASB. I definitely agree with the scenarios put forward by @Analytical Engine above, but if we take the theory that there are endless possible outcomes to all events, it is possible (though highly unlikely) that there could be alternative universes where the Soviet Union expanded into areas where from our perspective they would have no reason to go. Imagine a reformed semi-democratic USSR that merged peacefully with a socialist led EU after an isolationist US withdrew from NATO. Highly highly (add more as you see fit) unlikely? Yes! ASB? I would argue no.
 
One world government.

Though it may be Cominterm rather than USSR. Still ssrs

Absolutely not asb if you have a pod during Russian revolution. Have Rosa succeed and join with Lenin or a successor. Then just keep going

Hardest is obviously USA
 
One world government.

Though it may be Cominterm rather than USSR. Still ssrs

Absolutely not asb if you have a pod during Russian revolution. Have Rosa succeed and join with Lenin or a successor. Then just keep going

Hardest is obviously USA

While true, the world wouldn’t be ruled directly from Moscow and the OP disqualified puppet governments or fraternal republics like a Red Germany, so I don’t think this scenario would fulfill what they’re looking for. In such a world, the Soviets would have opportunities to enlarge their territory, although I suspect a timeline with a Europe that is entirely socialist would actually see power shifted away from the Soviets considering they can no longer turn the Internationale into their mouth piece which they dominate as the first workers state - the dominant power would shift towards more industrialized nations and weaken the Russian grip on it we saw OTL.
 
If Lenin accepted first B-L Treaty offer in 12/1917, Soviet Union would have lost Poland and Lithuania only.
Ending war with Germay earlier, no Czechoslovak Legion and without detaching Ukraine and Belarus, I think Reds would have won civil war earlier and kept Tsarist Russia's borders.
 
This really depends on the PoD.

Mongolia and East Turkestan are easiest.

I could see Gilan, Iranian Azerbaijan, and maybe other bits of northern Iran.

With the right butterflies during the Russian Civil War, Finland could be part of the USSR.

Possibly parts of Poland, depending on how the Polish-Soviet War goes.

More of East Prussia is plausible.

Maybe bits of eastern Anatolia.

Svalbard could have ended up Russian.

Manchuria, and possibly bits of China, if the CCP isn't as successful during the Chinese Civil War.

I would say Mongolia, Bulgaria (both asked to join), Finland (if Russian Civil War went differently or Stalin got his wish somehow in 1940), Gilan (different RCW), Iranian Azerbaijan and Iranian Kurdistan (if 1946 was different), eastern Anatolia (if WWII was different and 1945-1950 was different).

If the Russian Civil War was really different and the Reds won in Poland and were able to also establish a common front with the Hungarian communists then maybe also Poland and Hungary but that USSR would likely not resemble our USSR in many recognizable ways as it would likely completely change the 1930s and 1940s (so maybe no WWII and no communist Bulgaria among other things). Going even further if the Reds won in Poland, Hungary, Finland and Germany then theoretically you could see them all unite with the RSFSR, Ukrainian SSR, Byelorussian SSR etc but again... that wouldn't be the USSR as we know it.
 
It would have been interesting if Russia managed to achieve the Sazonov part of the Sykes-Picot agreement in Eastern Anatolia before it became the Soviet Union (albeit possibly including Mosul and parts of Eastern Syria as well as a contiguous part of French Eastern Anatolia), followed later by Gilan, Iranian Kurdistan and Iranian Azerbaijan.

upload_2019-10-15_16-32-47.png
 
4 points off diversion.
I have idea about timeline.
1 Russia keep Alaska as result of southern state wining war of independence. Or other reason.
Result Russia find gold in Alaska and build good pacific fleet.
2. Austria than Russia maybe Italy join Franco-Prussian war of 1871. Austria on side of France. Russia and maybe Italy on side of Prussia. Austria lose the war. Kingdom of Hungry whit Zagreb become Russia puppet. Czechoslovakia and Galicia become part of Russian Empire. Part of polish Austria become part of Czechoslovakia. Czechoslovakia have same autonomy as Poland.
3 in war of 1877 Russia annex Bulgaria Serbia Bosnia and Istanbul. Greece and Montenegro become Russian poppet. Most of European turkey split between Bulgaria and Greece. Armenia and Georgia get some Turkish territory. If Italy was Russia ally in previous war they help in war of 1877. Italy get some islands south of Greece and Albania. Albania could be puppet state of Italy. Russia Italy relation is very warm. Bavaria join Austria but it almost not related to Russia Turkish war.
4 Russia beat Japan in war of 1905. In battle of Tsushima Japanese navy is destroyed. Russian Navy take huge loses. Over twice of Japan. But win due to numbers. Russia annex Manchuria Mongolia Hokkaido East Turkestan.

Towards Great War Russia is strongest power in Europe and Asia. Only rivals are France and Britain because of a lot of colonies.
 
As I have noted before, there was a difference between Lenin and Stalin on this question in 1920--as Stalin mentioned in a 1923 speech. See Robert Service, Stalin: A Biography:

"Stalin and Lenin also undertook preliminary planning for the kind of Europe they expected to organise when socialist seizures of power took place. Their grandiose visions take the breath away. Before the Second Comintern Congress, Lenin urged the need for a general federation including Germany, and he made clear that he wanted the economy of such a federation to be ‘administered from a single organ’. Stalin rejected this as 'impractical':

"'If you think you’d ever get Germany to enter a federation with the same rights as Ukraine, you are mistaken. If you think that even Poland, which has been constituted as a bourgeois state with all its attributes, would enter the Union with the same rights as Ukraine you are mistaken.'

"Lenin was angry. The implication of Stalin’s comment was that considerations of national pride would impel Russia and Germany to remain separate states for the foreseeable future. Lenin sent him a ‘threatening letter’ which charged him with chauvinism.27 It was Lenin’s objective to set up a Union of Soviet Republics of Europe and Asia. His vision of ‘European socialist revolution’ was unchanged since 1917. But Stalin held his ground. The Politburo had to acknowledge the realities of nationhood if the spread of socialism in Europe was to be a success.

"These discussions were hypothetical since the Red Army had not yet reached Poland, far less set up a revolutionary government in Warsaw....' https://www.rulit.me/books/stalin-a-biography-read-280295-56.html In a footnote, Service gives his source as "Speech by Stalin to the Twelfth Party Congress section on the national question, 25 April 1923: ITsKKPSS, no. 4 (1991), p. 171." http://www.rulit.me/books/stalin-a-biography-read-280295-192.html

See J. Smith, The Bolsheviks and the National Question, 1917–23 for a slightly different translation of Stalin's 1923 speech:

"I said [to Lenin] - and this is all preserved in the archives of the Central Committee – that that would not work. If you think the nationalities of former Russia will stay in a framework of federalisation – that is understandable enough, but if you think that Germany will at some point come to you to join a federation with the same rights as Ukraine – you are mistaken. If you think that even Poland, which has taken the form of a bourgeois state with all its attributes, will enter into the composition of a union with the same rights as Ukraine – you are mistaken. That is what I said then. And comrade Lenin sent out a long letter - that is chauvinism, nationalism, we need a centralized world economy, run from a single organ."

Smith adds "Stalin's account of his own letter is accurate, so it is reasonable to suppose that his summary of Lenin's reply, which may also have been known to members of his audience, is equally correct." (I would also add that Stalin in a speech to a Party Congress would hardly be likely to invent an argument between himself and Lenin!)

On the next page, Smith summarizes: "If Stalin's 1923 speech is accurate, then, Lenin had accused him of chauvinism and nationalism for denying that Germany and Poland could be treated on the same basis as the Ukraine. Thus in 1920 Lenin wanted a union of all Soviet republics, including those yet to be built, while Stalin did not believe this was possible – Lenin was the centraliser, Stalin the separatist - the very opposite of [the traditional interpretation]..." https://books.google.com/books?id=pSZ9DAAAQBAJ&pg=PA179
 
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Northern Iran, Afghanistan, northeastern Turkey, Manchuria, Kurdistan, and potentially Finland are possible depending on some post-1917 PODs. Avoid the Welles (?) Declaration of 1940 with the West decrying the Baltic annexationsand chunks of Eastern Europe might be included as well.
 
Northern Iran, Afghanistan, northeastern Turkey, Manchuria, Kurdistan, and potentially Finland are possible depending on some post-1917 PODs. Avoid the Welles (?) Declaration of 1940 with the West decrying the Baltic annexationsand chunks of Eastern Europe might be included as well.

Why pod after 1917? Stronger Russian Empire bigger SSSR
 
Why pod after 1917? Stronger Russian Empire bigger SSSR

Given the wording of the original post I was not sure that would be within the realm of the scenario. A bigger Russian Empire might also have had a different outcome.
 
Given the wording of the original post I was not sure that would be within the realm of the scenario. A bigger Russian Empire might also have had a different outcome.
We talking biggest possible. Of course bigger Russian Empire might not turn in Soviet Union. But it possible.
 
That big one. I do not think parts of south Iran and south China be part of Soviet Union. But Yugoslavia and Czechoslovakia more likely.
 
FWIW, the few OTL suggestions for satellite nations joining the USSR have mostly come from the satellites themselves, not the USSR. E.g., Mongolia https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/ahc-mongolian-ssr.352879/#post-10705074 and Bulgaria (though I doubt Zhivkov's alleged offer was meant seriously). https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...-eastern-bloc-into-ssrs.413844/#post-14546885

Supposedly Gottwald also once asked Stalin to let Czechoslovakia join the USSR, but in the first place Gottwald was drunk when he said it, and in the second place in context the request was part of an unfavorable view of Soviet behavior. As Khrushchev recalled it:

"In 1948 Klement Gottwald was vacationing in the Crimea with Stalin. Stalin called me up and said: “Gottwald is here. Come join us.” The next day I flew there. We gathered at Stalin's place for dinner. Gottwald had drunk a great deal (he had that weakness) and began to say, "Comrade Stalin, why are your people stealing our patents? Just tell us and we'll give them to you for nothing. When your people steal them and we see it, we feel offended. We can give you more than just patents. Take us in as part of the Soviet Union. We'd be happy to join the Soviet Union and then everything we have will be common property.” Stalin refused to take them in, and he got angry over the thieving. But that was only in words, because we continued to steal, sometimes just out of old habit, like the gypsy who was asked: “If you were king, what would you do?” He answered: “I'd steal me a herd of horses and disappear."..." https://books.google.com/books?id=uv1zv4FZhFUC&pg=PT242

BTW, I see that some years ago in soc.history.what-if, Martin Ripa gave a somewhat different version of the story:

***

An anecdotal story:

Once in early 1950's the Czechoslovak president Klement Gottwald visited this comrade and brother Joseph Stalin. Both got drunk a lot and Klement wanted to make Joseph happy. So he fell on his knees and began to beg:

"Comrade Stalin! Fulfill the ancient dream of all Czechoslovak workers! Let the Czechoslovak people join the Soviet Union of brotherly republics! "

Stalin, with his typical smile, replied: "Why not, comrade Gottwald - I was always for the socialist brotherhood - but only as *two* Soviet republics !"

https://groups.google.com/d/msg/soc.history.what-if/ZsaWTrzMvD4/INh69BemoFQJ
 
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