Largest possible Russia with a PoD of 1850 or later

CaliGuy

Banned
For the record, I posted this here because most of the consequences of this will occur after 1900.

Realistically speaking, what if the largest possible Russia that can be created with a PoD of 1850 or later?

Also, for the record, this Russia needs to be sustainable over the long(er)-run; specifically, it cannot implode like the Soviet Union did in 1991 in our TL. (To clarify--parts of this Russia can secede; however, the unity of the bulk of this Russia has to be sustainable over the long(er)-run.)

Anyway, here are my own thoughts on this:

-Russia could annex parts of Inner Manchuria if they have a low Chinese population and if other Great Powers (especially Japan) are OK with this; in such a scenario, Russia would be able to send a lot of Russian settlers there afterwards and thus to Russify these areas (just like it did with Outer Manchuria in our TL).

-Russia could annex Mongolia during its secession rebellion in the 1910s and send a lot of Russian settlers there afterwards.

-Russia could annex some or all of Xinjiang during China's warlord era in the early 20th century and send a lot of Russian settlers there afterwards. Alternatively, Russia could do this in the 1860s or 1870s during Yakub Beg's revolt.

-If Afghanistan enters World War I on the side of the Central Powers, Russia can probably expand all of the way south to the Hindu Kush (but not beyond that); afterwards, if a 1991-Soviet-style implosion is averted, Russia should probably be able to keep both these areas as well as the rest of Central Asia.

-No Bolshevik Revolution would allow Russia to annex the Armenian provinces of the Ottoman Empire as well as the Straits. Without Bolshevism, the Christian areas in the Caucasus and beyond are unlikely to secede from Russia due to their fear of the Turks.

-Had the Bolsheviks put Belarus, Crimea, and the Donbass into the Russian SFSR, Russia could have permanently kept those areas (with the same also being true of Central Asia).

-No Bolshevik Revolution might allow Russia to permanently keep both Latvia and Estonia; after all, both of these countries didn't have a history of independence yet back in 1918. However, unlike in Latvia and Estonia, high amounts of nationalism in Poland, Lithuania, Finland, and maybe Moldova as well mean that a permanent Russian retention of these territories unlikely even if there is no Bolshevik Revolution in Russia.

Anyway, any thoughts on this?
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Also, I've flirted with further Russian encroachments on Iran in this scenario; however, due to the Iranians' high sense of nationalism, such encroachments might not be sustainable over the long(er)-run.
 
POD of 1850 allows the Alaska purchase to never happen.

It also means the Alaskan border dispute lands on Russia instead of America when the Yukon gold rush takes off at the turn of the century.

1024px-Alaska_boundary_dispute.jpg

So you can get a bigger Russian America if the Brits are for some reason very generous to Russia, or even bigger still if the situation goes the other way and Russia and Britain fight a war over the region and British Columbia + Yukon or parts thereof gets annexed. Such a war would probably be related to all that drama kicked up by the Russo-Japanese war, where OTL Britain was allied to Japan and France was allied to Russia but neither got involved on behalf of their ally because the treaties accounted for this situation and more importantly neither wanted to go to war with each other over a port in the far east.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
POD of 1850 allows the Alaska purchase to never happen.

It also means the Alaskan border dispute lands on Russia instead of America when the Yukon gold rush takes off at the turn of the century.

1024px-Alaska_boundary_dispute.jpg

So you can get a bigger Russian America if the Brits are for some reason very generous to Russia, or even bigger still if the situation goes the other way and Russia and Britain fight a war over the region and British Columbia + Yukon or parts thereof gets annexed. Such a war would probably be related to all that drama kicked up by the Russo-Japanese war, where OTL Britain was allied to Japan and France was allied to Russia but neither got involved on behalf of their ally because the treaties accounted for this situation and more importantly neither wanted to go to war with each other over a port in the far east.
Your point about Alaska is certainly a very good one; indeed, perhaps I should have made the PoD for this 1868 rather than 1850.
 
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