Largest possible Napoleonic France?
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He might have achieved his Rhenish borders and more of northern Italy, possibly the whole Netherlands too. One of the few ways Napoleon can win is by not invading Spain, so I'd say Catalonia is out of the question.
Definetly Belgium, as the Walloonish areas spoke Frankish inspired tongues, while Flanders was French during the medieval period. That and the southern Rhineland, at least. Perhaps the Channel Islands are gained? And would we consider Napoleon and his successors always inheriting both the Empire of France and Kingdom of Italy? Piedmont is there to stay, as it is a economically productive area. Going to be forced to play second fiddle to inferior French competitors though.
If Napoleon had played his cards right in Spain im sure he coulda conquered it with alot less fuss. Wait for the common people to hate the royals so much they'll ask him to come in as a liberator? If Spain falls to France without insane guerrilla activity Portugal can get attrited down eventually. He can turn the Medit into a French Lake once he takes out Gibralter.
Switzerland stays in the French orbit and eventually fully annexed. Might be worthwhile to ditch the Poles and Bavarians as a price to pay for the Russians and Austrians to no longer focus on him and instead be focused on each other. Also a big bonus as letting Austria have a stronger position to prevent German Unification under the Prussians who will be sandwiched by big greedy powers and always wary of their back.
GB can remain obstinate but if Russia and Austria is busy digesting their new conquests and focused on each other instead of fighting France, France can eventually get their new holdings under firm control and then try to surpass GB economically.
Also without the Continental system, Portugal may not flip and perhaps Russia stays neutral instead of hostile to France. Without losing craptons of troops in the March to Moscow and a better/clever take over of Spain, Nappy would have more than enough bodies to hold his borders and make Austria, Russia, and Prussia think REAL hard about messing with him.
With this super France (even without Spain) come the 1830s and on its gonna be reallll interesting to see how they do with all that coal and iron they didnt have OTL.
Switzerland stays in the French orbit and eventually fully annexed. Might be worthwhile to ditch the Poles and Bavarians as a price to pay for the Russians and Austrians to no longer focus on him and instead be focused on each other. Also a big bonus as letting Austria have a stronger position to prevent German Unification under the Prussians who will be sandwiched by big greedy powers and always wary of their back.
GB can remain obstinate but if Russia and Austria is busy digesting their new conquests and focused on each other instead of fighting France, France can eventually get their new holdings under firm control and then try to surpass GB economically.
Also without the Continental system, Portugal may not flip and perhaps Russia stays neutral instead of hostile to France. Without losing craptons of troops in the March to Moscow and a better/clever take over of Spain, Nappy would have more than enough bodies to hold his borders and make Austria, Russia, and Prussia think REAL hard about messing with him.
With this super France (even without Spain) come the 1830s and on its gonna be reallll interesting to see how they do with all that coal and iron they didnt have OTL.
If we are limiting Napoleonic France to actually annexed countries then I'd say Flanders, Switzerland and Savoy-Piedmont-Corsica.
He did annex the Netherlands IOTL but it was a mistake IMHO. The "natural borders" of the Rhine and the Alps would be the western edge of the nation but there would be an interlocking web of client states in Holland, Germany and Italy beyond it.
Poland would be supported as a buffer against Russia but the useless Ilyrian provinces should have been returned to Austria to keep then onside.
To be honest he's still going to face a lifetime of intermittent war but then so did Royalist France in the century before.
Will be interesting what would happen to a Napoleonic France as large as this when the revolutions of 1848 or their analogue kick off.
Why keep the "Polish Shield" let the Poles hang to get Russia on side, same with giving up the Illyrian lands, never understood why he held onto that when it was of such limited value and undefendable. Then after that its the Prussians and Austrians problem to deal with the Russian Hordes. France retains influence over the Northern German principalities, Austrians of the south, and Prussians the scraps.
Annexing the Netherlands is tricky. As stated earlier its East of the Rhine and more importantly their overseas holdings is pretty much at the mercy of the Royal navy. The East Indies holdings i dunno if they were all that valuable yet, but i can totally the Brits gobble that up if France eats the Netherlands prematurely. Might be wiser to let the Dutch be a client state in a way where the British wont blitz the East Indies... unless the French can finally amass a Franco-Iberian-Dutch-Italo Fleet large enough to finally cement a lasting peace (doesnt require successful invasion merely to generate high enough threat to get GB to the table). Then i can see the French getting involved in SEA earlier with the Dutch colonial holdings as a base.
The 1840s revolutions are gonna suck for France, holding onto all those minorities, but they should still be strong enough and their military has kept its literally invincible reputation intact in such a scenario.
Annexing the Netherlands is tricky. As stated earlier its East of the Rhine and more importantly their overseas holdings is pretty much at the mercy of the Royal navy. The East Indies holdings i dunno if they were all that valuable yet, but i can totally the Brits gobble that up if France eats the Netherlands prematurely. Might be wiser to let the Dutch be a client state in a way where the British wont blitz the East Indies... unless the French can finally amass a Franco-Iberian-Dutch-Italo Fleet large enough to finally cement a lasting peace (doesnt require successful invasion merely to generate high enough threat to get GB to the table). Then i can see the French getting involved in SEA earlier with the Dutch colonial holdings as a base.
The 1840s revolutions are gonna suck for France, holding onto all those minorities, but they should still be strong enough and their military has kept its literally invincible reputation intact in such a scenario.
Would they be able to cement a national identity by the 1840s when Nationalism starts coming into play, or would that eventually tear the Empire apart?
I think it'd be best to chuck preconceptions of 1840s revolutions, which had roots at least in part in the counterrevolutionary Congress of Vienna system. Without a Bourbon restoration in France and counterrevolution throughout Europe, nothing proceeds with certainty past the next year.
I don't see how you can stop the nationalism craze, particularly since the "Empire" (i.e. mainland France) relied on the manpower, taxes, loot (art, etc.) stolen from their "sister" states. Eventually Italy will no longer want to be tethered to France (and Napoleon had promised that after him the two crowns would be separate), the Confederation of the Rhine will no longer want to be under Napoleon's "protection" (and I don't think under any scenario the House of Bonaparte continues to reign in the puppet-state of Westphalia), Holland/Netherlands will no longer want to be under the French yoke forever, Austria will always be scheming to get back the Tyrol (from Bavaria) and Illyria (which France really didn't need). And then there's Spain, which is a giant mistake from the get-go.
At some point within Napoleon's lifetime, but particularly afterwards when he's no longer around there is going to be a huge backlash from annexed countries for independence from the French boot. The Empire as it was, was just untenable (I don't know why Napoleon at some point didn't realize this).
Spain situation and about the Nationalism in a Napoleonic survivor European Empire
The extension of a Napoleonic Empire survivor, can vary from Bavaria and perhaps directly or as satellites incorporate some Kingdoms / principalities in southern Germany and probably the other kingdoms hardly be spared having some French garrison in certain important strategic points. Also implies either a permanent alliance with Austria and the recognition of French hegemony in Germany, having to concentrate on its non-German possessions, to where compulsorily run his expansion... you take her cua hit Russia unless of French mediation is reached some agreement and the war against the Ottomans.
Also a Napoleonic Empire should ally itself or ensure the Russia neutrality in the more than likely situation of cold war with Great Britain for what Poland should sacrifice all or at least agree on a new partition of Poland with Russia.
It also means definitely neutralize as potential threat to either conquering Prussia, forcing her to resign himself to a subordinate status in the United imperial system Napoleonico or less likely to dismember and divide their territory.
Therefore the extension of the territory incorporated into the empire either a first or second instance would at least up to and including central Italy, the Netherlands, Switzerland and at least throughout southern Germany with the rest in the hands of allied rulers / subordinates ... which does not include the likely coastal regions and / or strategic cities with the undoubted presence of French garrisons in them... inside Germany or on the border with the Russian empire or the Austrian.
Napoleon never be seen as a liberator by the Spanish people of the time ... in the same way that neither would have been seen by the British...
Napoleon was France and its deposition and removal of the Spanish monarch by his own brother, supported by the French troops, it was correctly perceived by the Spanish people as a blatant attempt to conquer Spain.
The critical view of the King, his son and only Godoy was possessed by an enlightened / liberal minority ... most of which was disconnected from the popular feeling about it.
Therefore the best strategy, if Napoleon had not been possessed by hubris, it would have been to choose support Charles IV or Fernando VII - the father or the son, as the legitimate king of Spain and had preserved a valuable ally with interest and own reasons to invade / conquer Portugal, in the retake of Gibraltar and of course with a great popular support and experience in land and naval war against England.
About the military value of Spain as an ally in addition to its strategic geographical position and France haven't allocate, theirs valuable human and material resources to fight not only against an emerged spontaneously popular insurgency but with the regular Spanish army who was able in Bailen to inflict the first clear defeat to an Napoleonic army.
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Regarding the conquest / Napoleonic empire incorporation despite supposed the immediate loss of their colonials possessions to hands of the Royal Navy ..l for the territorial and Eurocentric conception of Napoleon, it made perfect sense.
With regard to the unpopularity or resentment caused by French imperial arrogance and to their economic / tax rates in the absence of a coalition or an external ally and / or an enemy of France to be able to bring the war victoriously against it and achieve release of French rule as happened in OTL, it is very unlikely that the likely insatisfaccion and/or resentment of their status subjected / subordinate to a Napoleonic Empire survivor may lead to something more important than possibly sporadic and disorganized rebellions, which would promptly repressed by Imperial French troops.
Regarding nationalism and more precisely to the revolutions of 1848 ... I do not know, because it is assumed that the butterflies of a survivor Napoleonic Empire ... not going to affect the socio-political conditions that resulted in the OTL .
Should consider, that isn't the same situation as, in OTL, had to endure the Populations that were protagonists in 1848, under autocratic / repressive regimes to which hypothetically would experience under a 'Liberal' and meritocratic rule (at least in comparison with other continental empires); not to mention the prestige and assimilative force of French culture and revolutionary institutions, survivors*and adapted to serve the Napoleonic empire ... particularly among minorities, which in OTL lead and staged the revolutionary upheavals.
The extension of a Napoleonic Empire survivor, can vary from Bavaria and perhaps directly or as satellites incorporate some Kingdoms / principalities in southern Germany and probably the other kingdoms hardly be spared having some French garrison in certain important strategic points. Also implies either a permanent alliance with Austria and the recognition of French hegemony in Germany, having to concentrate on its non-German possessions, to where compulsorily run his expansion... you take her cua hit Russia unless of French mediation is reached some agreement and the war against the Ottomans.
Also a Napoleonic Empire should ally itself or ensure the Russia neutrality in the more than likely situation of cold war with Great Britain for what Poland should sacrifice all or at least agree on a new partition of Poland with Russia.
It also means definitely neutralize as potential threat to either conquering Prussia, forcing her to resign himself to a subordinate status in the United imperial system Napoleonico or less likely to dismember and divide their territory.
Therefore the extension of the territory incorporated into the empire either a first or second instance would at least up to and including central Italy, the Netherlands, Switzerland and at least throughout southern Germany with the rest in the hands of allied rulers / subordinates ... which does not include the likely coastal regions and / or strategic cities with the undoubted presence of French garrisons in them... inside Germany or on the border with the Russian empire or the Austrian.
Napoleon never be seen as a liberator by the Spanish people of the time ... in the same way that neither would have been seen by the British...
Napoleon was France and its deposition and removal of the Spanish monarch by his own brother, supported by the French troops, it was correctly perceived by the Spanish people as a blatant attempt to conquer Spain.
The critical view of the King, his son and only Godoy was possessed by an enlightened / liberal minority ... most of which was disconnected from the popular feeling about it.
Therefore the best strategy, if Napoleon had not been possessed by hubris, it would have been to choose support Charles IV or Fernando VII - the father or the son, as the legitimate king of Spain and had preserved a valuable ally with interest and own reasons to invade / conquer Portugal, in the retake of Gibraltar and of course with a great popular support and experience in land and naval war against England.
About the military value of Spain as an ally in addition to its strategic geographical position and France haven't allocate, theirs valuable human and material resources to fight not only against an emerged spontaneously popular insurgency but with the regular Spanish army who was able in Bailen to inflict the first clear defeat to an Napoleonic army.
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Vae Victus said:
Regarding the conquest / Napoleonic empire incorporation despite supposed the immediate loss of their colonials possessions to hands of the Royal Navy ..l for the territorial and Eurocentric conception of Napoleon, it made perfect sense.
With regard to the unpopularity or resentment caused by French imperial arrogance and to their economic / tax rates in the absence of a coalition or an external ally and / or an enemy of France to be able to bring the war victoriously against it and achieve release of French rule as happened in OTL, it is very unlikely that the likely insatisfaccion and/or resentment of their status subjected / subordinate to a Napoleonic Empire survivor may lead to something more important than possibly sporadic and disorganized rebellions, which would promptly repressed by Imperial French troops.
Regarding nationalism and more precisely to the revolutions of 1848 ... I do not know, because it is assumed that the butterflies of a survivor Napoleonic Empire ... not going to affect the socio-political conditions that resulted in the OTL .
Should consider, that isn't the same situation as, in OTL, had to endure the Populations that were protagonists in 1848, under autocratic / repressive regimes to which hypothetically would experience under a 'Liberal' and meritocratic rule (at least in comparison with other continental empires); not to mention the prestige and assimilative force of French culture and revolutionary institutions, survivors*and adapted to serve the Napoleonic empire ... particularly among minorities, which in OTL lead and staged the revolutionary upheavals.
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I agree. In fact, I'd say that if 1840s revolutions do somehow happen, unlikely as it would be with a POD like this, they'll only help Bonapartist France, as it will likely be the most liberal state in Europe. That is, as long as France does not try to absorb anything northeast of the Rhine or south of the Pyrenees.