In Italian Eritrea, Italian settlers made up around 12% of the entire Eritrean population so an Italian-majority state isn't entirely implausible and considering it was one of the most developed colonies in Africa, I think it's plausible enough for Eritrea to become home to the most Italians in the Horn of Africa. I believe Asmara and a number of other cities were dominated by the Italians as well. As for Ethiopia, there will be most likely around 200,000 Italian settlers spread throughout Ethiopia and perhaps more if there's something appealing about Italian Ethiopia to the Italian people. Italian Somaliland had Italian settlers that were around 22,000 strong which made around 2% of the population in Italian Somaliland.Would a white plurality or majority be possible in some regions
Would a white plurality or majority be possible in some regions
I don't think he meant it like that. As mentioned above, there were some white/European-majority regions in Italian Eritrea and Somaliland in the 30s.I have to ask, why does it matter? So what if people are white or black?
I was wondering if enough Italians or others could migrate to form a plurality or majority of the population in some areasI have to ask, why does it matter? So what if people are white or black?
There would have to be an incentive for them to move to the Horn of Africa - if the Italians have managed to hold onto Ethiopia since the 1890s, then there might not be any significant insurgency dedicated to the liberation of Ethiopia and/or kicking the Italians out of Africa. I'd assume that with two decades of investment and development, Italian East Africa might end up being one of, if not the most developed colony that flourishes following independence in the 50s or 60s.I was wondering if enough Italians or others could migrate to form a plurality or majority of the population in some areas
I have to ask, why does it matter? So what if people are white or black?
At the most, there might be around 100,000 Italians settling in the Ethiopian interior whereas the Eritrean coastal areas are settled with more Italians and Somalia will see very limited settlement.I really do not see Italian settlement in East Africa being any more successful than British settlement in East Africa. The environments are too different and the populations of the colonized much too large.
If Italian East Africa is established in the late 1890s, then the Italians might be able to settle more settlers in the Ethiopian interior if they are pragmatic in doing so before and after ww1. When Italy turns fascist, then there may be a spike in the Italian population in the Italian East African interior and they may be able to add more if Italy either remains neutral or joins the Allies in ww2 but I'm unsure if that's plausible.Eritrea is doable, the rest of Italian East Africa much less so.
Would a white plurality or majority be possible in some regions
Eritrea is doable, the rest of Italian East Africa much less so.
So? It's obvious that the native Africans are always going to outnumber the European settlers (with a few exceptions if things went differently) but this discussion is about the largest population of Italians in East Africa.No matter how large the Italian population gets the native African population will surpass and dwarf it once a demographic transition starts in Africa. The demographic transition for Africa and the Middle east hasen't ended yet even in OTL. It would be the same case here.
Then the answer to that question is creating a situation where all the Whites are not evicted after the African nations gain independence. Cause after the natives realize that independence hasn't solved all their problems they are going to want scapegoats. It would be pretty hard to avoid that scenario in any timeline.So? It's obvious that the native Africans are always going to outnumber the European settlers (with a few exceptions if things went differently) but this discussion is about the largest population of Italians in East Africa.
So the Italian settlers are going to end up being kicked out from the Horn of Africa?Then the answer to that question is creating a situation where all the Whites are not evicted after the African nations gain independence. Cause after the natives realize that independence hasn't solved all their problems they are going to want scapegoats. It would be pretty hard to avoid that scenario in any timeline.
If Italy managed to transform Ethiopia into a protectorate in the 1890s, then there might more Italian settlers numbering in the thousands by World War 1 as development of Italian East Africa goes on and if Italian settlers had remained in Ethiopia up until independence sometime in the 60s, you might see - at most - 500,000 to 1 million Italians residing on the coast of Eritrea and the interior of Ethiopia.Italian East Africa could possibly get a population numbering in the millions. On the other hand it might not be very likely for a million sized Italian diaspora in Italian East Africa. Assuming that Italy had conquered Ethiopia earlier than in OTL(1936), then it is possible a larger Italian diaspora could migrate to East Africa for cushy employment.
Because a native African majority would go for independence at some point.
There's no chance in hell that so many of them would be accepted as fellow citizens just with a different complexion back in the 40s (Or the 50s. Or the 60s. Or even today for all it matters).