Largest possible Italian Population in East Africa

Say Italy loses Libya in the 1920s or becomes a protectorate pre-Mussolini and remains neutral in world war 2

What the Largest possible Italian population in Italian East Africa

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Perhaps Ethiopia becomes an indirect/de-facto Italian protectorate under either Emperor Yohannes IV or Menelik II in the 1890s, the Ethiopian Emperor becoming more reliant on material support from the Italian colonial government based in Eritrea which leads to the signing of another Treaty of Wuchale that the Ethiopians don't object to. In the years prior to and after World War 1, have Mussolini and Fascist Italy move a large amount of Italian settlers to the Horn of Africa in the 20s and 30s as they focus on developing Italian East Africa. If the Italians remain neutral in World War 2 (at least, until 1944 or 1945), then they can relocate more settlers to Italian East Africa until it becomes independent in the 50s or 60s alongside other European colonies in Africa.
 
Would a white plurality or majority be possible in some regions
In Italian Eritrea, Italian settlers made up around 12% of the entire Eritrean population so an Italian-majority state isn't entirely implausible and considering it was one of the most developed colonies in Africa, I think it's plausible enough for Eritrea to become home to the most Italians in the Horn of Africa. I believe Asmara and a number of other cities were dominated by the Italians as well. As for Ethiopia, there will be most likely around 200,000 Italian settlers spread throughout Ethiopia and perhaps more if there's something appealing about Italian Ethiopia to the Italian people. Italian Somaliland had Italian settlers that were around 22,000 strong which made around 2% of the population in Italian Somaliland.
 
I was wondering if enough Italians or others could migrate to form a plurality or majority of the population in some areas
There would have to be an incentive for them to move to the Horn of Africa - if the Italians have managed to hold onto Ethiopia since the 1890s, then there might not be any significant insurgency dedicated to the liberation of Ethiopia and/or kicking the Italians out of Africa. I'd assume that with two decades of investment and development, Italian East Africa might end up being one of, if not the most developed colony that flourishes following independence in the 50s or 60s.
 
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I have to ask, why does it matter? So what if people are white or black?

Because a native African majority would go for independence at some point.
There's no chance in hell that so many of them would be accepted as fellow citizens just with a different complexion back in the 40s (Or the 50s. Or the 60s. Or even today for all it matters).
 
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I really do not see Italian settlement in East Africa being any more successful than British settlement in East Africa. The environments are too different and the populations of the colonized much too large.
 
I really do not see Italian settlement in East Africa being any more successful than British settlement in East Africa. The environments are too different and the populations of the colonized much too large.
At the most, there might be around 100,000 Italians settling in the Ethiopian interior whereas the Eritrean coastal areas are settled with more Italians and Somalia will see very limited settlement.
 
Eritrea is doable, the rest of Italian East Africa much less so.
If Italian East Africa is established in the late 1890s, then the Italians might be able to settle more settlers in the Ethiopian interior if they are pragmatic in doing so before and after ww1. When Italy turns fascist, then there may be a spike in the Italian population in the Italian East African interior and they may be able to add more if Italy either remains neutral or joins the Allies in ww2 but I'm unsure if that's plausible.
 
Would a white plurality or majority be possible in some regions
Eritrea is doable, the rest of Italian East Africa much less so.

No matter how large the Italian population gets the native African population will surpass and dwarf it once a demographic transition starts in Africa. The demographic transition for Africa and the Middle east hasen't ended yet even in OTL. It would be the same case here.
 
No matter how large the Italian population gets the native African population will surpass and dwarf it once a demographic transition starts in Africa. The demographic transition for Africa and the Middle east hasen't ended yet even in OTL. It would be the same case here.
So? It's obvious that the native Africans are always going to outnumber the European settlers (with a few exceptions if things went differently) but this discussion is about the largest population of Italians in East Africa.
 
So? It's obvious that the native Africans are always going to outnumber the European settlers (with a few exceptions if things went differently) but this discussion is about the largest population of Italians in East Africa.
Then the answer to that question is creating a situation where all the Whites are not evicted after the African nations gain independence. Cause after the natives realize that independence hasn't solved all their problems they are going to want scapegoats. It would be pretty hard to avoid that scenario in any timeline.
 
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Then the answer to that question is creating a situation where all the Whites are not evicted after the African nations gain independence. Cause after the natives realize that independence hasn't solved all their problems they are going to want scapegoats. It would be pretty hard to avoid that scenario in any timeline.
So the Italian settlers are going to end up being kicked out from the Horn of Africa?
 
Italian East Africa could possibly get a population numbering in the millions. On the other hand it might not be very likely for a million sized Italian diaspora in Italian East Africa. Assuming that Italy had conquered Ethiopia earlier than in OTL(1936), then it is possible a larger Italian diaspora could migrate to East Africa for cushy employment.
 
Italian East Africa could possibly get a population numbering in the millions. On the other hand it might not be very likely for a million sized Italian diaspora in Italian East Africa. Assuming that Italy had conquered Ethiopia earlier than in OTL(1936), then it is possible a larger Italian diaspora could migrate to East Africa for cushy employment.
If Italy managed to transform Ethiopia into a protectorate in the 1890s, then there might more Italian settlers numbering in the thousands by World War 1 as development of Italian East Africa goes on and if Italian settlers had remained in Ethiopia up until independence sometime in the 60s, you might see - at most - 500,000 to 1 million Italians residing on the coast of Eritrea and the interior of Ethiopia.
 
Because a native African majority would go for independence at some point.
There's no chance in hell that so many of them would be accepted as fellow citizens just with a different complexion back in the 40s (Or the 50s. Or the 60s. Or even today for all it matters).

Could a "Mestizo" population of Southern Italian-Somali/Eritrean somehow be integrated culturally? It would be a bit of a stress, but the complexion might be similar enough that if they could take on Italian culture fully enough they could pass as close enough. Combined with Italian settlers, you could maybe get a slim majority (or close enough) in Eritrea and parts of Somalia to form a separate polity to the native Africans or petition to stay part of/in association with Italy
 
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