Largest possible Austria-Hungary

With a post-1900 POD? Going to be difficult.

Absolutely.

CP winning some WWI-analogon rather easily and quickly would be a possibility - and a very difficult one. Say the POD means that German politics are also changed fundamentally, leading to Britain being neutral. Germany wins, AH annexes something. Problem is that most they could annex would increase their problems. With a short and utterly victorious war, they might be able to enforce federalization on the Hungarians (again very difficult), and with federalization working they could work with annexations of whole nations such as Romania or Serbia (not easy at all), conditional on them becoming federal states with major local autonomy and profiting greatly from the common market. But you'd probably need an economic miracle going on to have all the old and new ethnicities of AH to prefer to stay within AH (probably the easiest to achieve: AH had a decent growth before WWI nad a large, developping market).
 
Absolutely.

CP winning some WWI-analogon rather easily and quickly would be a possibility - and a very difficult one. Say the POD means that German politics are also changed fundamentally, leading to Britain being neutral. Germany wins, AH annexes something. Problem is that most they could annex would increase their problems. With a short and utterly victorious war, they might be able to enforce federalization on the Hungarians (again very difficult), and with federalization working they could work with annexations of whole nations such as Romania or Serbia (not easy at all), conditional on them becoming federal states with major local autonomy and profiting greatly from the common market. But you'd probably need an economic miracle going on to have all the old and new ethnicities of AH to prefer to stay within AH (probably the easiest to achieve: AH had a decent growth before WWI nad a large, developping market).

Even an autonomous Serbia and Romania would still fight, because at some point someone has to conquer them, and if the war record of the Austro-Hungarian Army IOTL was anything to by, they're going to litter their road to victory with corpses.

I'm rather skeptical that federalization was ever truly a goal of the Hapsburgs as opposed to a carrot they wanted to dangle over the heads of the empire's most contentious subject peoples. Concessions to the Hungarians had already created loads of problems for the empire, I think it is safe to say that most in Vienna wanted less local autonomy, not more of it.
 
Actually, I'm interested in what would become of Austria-Hungary in a post-CP victory scenario. Would it end up something like the Balkans today? Or was it stable enough to continue had the disaster of WW1 not occurred?
 
Actually, I'm interested in what would become of Austria-Hungary in a post-CP victory scenario. Would it end up something like the Balkans today? Or was it stable enough to continue had the disaster of WW1 not occurred?

When it comes to major multinational empires involved in the war, it seemed as if Austria-Hungary was by far doing the worst out of the lot even before the war began. Russia was making its merry way towards industrialization and maybe even some meager progress towards lasting social and political reform if you count Stolypin's ill-fated efforts. The Ottomans with German help had reformed their army and navy and reshaped themselves as a true force to be reckoned with, so much so that the supposed Sick Man of Europe was one of the most durable nations of the Central Powers.

Austria was rife with ethnic tensions and issues were coming to a head over reform of the empire in a way that may very well have turned quite violent (conservative Magyar nobles resisting reform, or alternatively Franz Ferdinand becoming king and turning out to be much more conservative than we often think of him as being). Out of everyone involved in the war, Austria-Hungary was probably in the worst condition even before they entered it.
 
I'm rather skeptical that federalization was ever truly a goal of the Hapsburgs as opposed to a carrot they wanted to dangle over the heads of the empire's most contentious subject peoples. Concessions to the Hungarians had already created loads of problems for the empire, I think it is safe to say that most in Vienna wanted less local autonomy, not more of it.

Precisely. Of all the Habsburgs, only Franz Ferdinand looked forward to federalization rather sincerely (if still on a primarily calculating level). Everything every other Habsburg did in OTL is proof of them not liking the idea, despite its obvious potential for long-term stabilization.

That said, even the federalization of Austria-Hungary is not an automatic cure-all. And it would need a certain amount of time to take real effect. Life is not a playthrough of Victoria : An Empire Under the Sun. And while I am one of those who think an Austria-Hungary that federalizes soon enough offers somewhat of an optimistic outlook, even I think a federation like that would not last past the alternate 1950s or so. Why ? Because the national movements of some groups would still do their best to eventually leave the federation at the next best opportunity (bloodlessly, if possible) and found their own independant countries. Yes, a common market, etc., is a fine advantage. But tell it to those stubborn national movements and their leaders or members. A federated Austria-Hungary, even if it worked well, would have less of a tradition of equalitarian distribution of power among nations than, say, the United Kingdom.

Yes, this all sounds very cynical... But I'm writing this all down just to warn everyone of the potential timeline cliché of "I'll just federalize A-H in my TL because I want it to survive, but can't be bothered to actually research its political issues, unlike with everyone's ATL darling, Germany". I would really hate if such a cliché arose in full force. I think it is already partially present in a lot of 20th century timelines, but it's usually at least made with some interesting variations on part of the authors, making it less annoying.
 
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Yeah, I've grown increasingly to the conclusion that even a victorious CP or stalemate in WWI is likely to lead, at most, to a larger 'Austria' in the long run rather than a really stable Austria-Hungary.
 
In 1914 Austria was more stable than it had been in the past. Do not exaggarate the domestic situation of 1914 without looking at all of the empire's history, which was speckled with various crises of existence. The Austrians themselves had a saying, something along the lines of the situation is hopeless, but not yet serious. It fits Austria perfectly.

The key to whether Austria-Hungary was stable post 1914 or not lay in its economic growth rates. Stagnant, the minorities would become restless and the empire would drift apart. This is what actually happened, not because of bad governance, but because the Entente blockaded the economy and caused it to collapse. A vibrant economy, and empire endures.

If you look at the data for the Austro-Hungarian empire in its last 30 years, according to The Sleepwalkers and other sources, its economy was on fire - rapid growth. It was politically more stable than Russia (which is why Russia collapsed into revolution and the Austrian Empire continued to endure a while longer under even worse economic hardship) and it was economically growing faster than most of Europe - in a league with Russia and Germany on that score.
 
The few books I've read on the subject, mostly on Czech and Galitzian Polish political leadership and public mood during the war, indicate that it took the complete collapse of local-level economy and coal and food shortages and the collapse of KuK Armee with plenty of radicalized deserters flooding back to their homes from the front to really bring the situation to a level where people begun to seriously consider the possibility that the Hapsburg monarchy would fall.

Before that most leaders of the national movements within the Empire were really careful in their actions, and officially they all eagerly supported the war effort and imperial unity nearly to the very end. Why?

Because they were afraid that unless they displayed proper patriotism and loyalty, the government would reward the "competing" national groups instead in the postwar situation. Thus the Czechs were kept in check by their rivalry with Germans in Bohemia and with Hungarians in Slovakia, Romanians were hoping to use support from Vienna against the Hungarian leadership, Bosniaks hoped that they'd be protected by Croatian claims by displays of loyalty to the crown, and so on...

This divide-and-rule attitude wasn't a result of a careful plan by Vienna, and the government tried to keep these tendencies down by arrests and censorship rather than cultivate it.

To sum it up, I find the idea that AH dissolves after the war by default a little irritating. The locals themselves were certainly far from certain that such an outcome would come to pass.
 
I think this would be the greatest approximate extent of the Austro-Hungarian monarchy with a POD after 1900.
How long and by what means would such a state survive, regardless of its status as a "winner" in the Great War is another question entirely.

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Budapest was at this point of time the fastest-growing metropolis in Europe. Like Vienna, it had more inhabitants in 1914 than it has now.

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One often tends to forget that not only the Hungarians were included in "divide-et-impera" power-sharing agreements which placated most minorities. Poles were allowed to dominate over Ruthenes (and to enjoy a lot more autonomy than the Poles in Russia/Prussia), Italians over Slovenes and Croats in Dalmatia and Küstenland, Croatia had its own semi-autonomy.
The only really sore spots were
-the Czechs, but due to their impossible strategic and favourable economic position, they were improbable to rebel beyond nationalistic riots now and then (a game the Germans in Bohemia played just as well) and Parliamentary obstruction
-the Serbs with their irredentist agenda unreconciled by alliances with Austria-Hungary any more (unlike Romania & Italy)

I agree that a reasonably and ruthless constitutional reform at the right point of time could have dramatically increased Austria-Hungary's chances. But: the biggest obstacle stands in Budapest, a Gordian knot to be cut. I cannot imagine a way to successfully reform the whole monarchy without cancelling the "Ausgleich" and having a royal putch against the Transleithanian government and constitution.

The first sore spot could be placated with Czech autonomy under a Wenceslas-Crown. This would either include the Germans of Bohemia/Moravia-fully (a very strong minority), or these old lands would be separated à la 1938 (untypical for the Habsburgs); also dubious if "Upper Hungary = Slovakia" was was to be added to this crown. IMHO a combination of both ideas would have been best.

The second sore spot is harder. FF was dead set against annexing the Serbs, despite his sympathy for a South Slav crown. So I assume that by granting the Croats their own state, expanded by Bosnia-Hercegovina, that implied that they get the responsibility to take care of the Serbs. Not Vienna's business any more. Could have become nasty over time, but not as nasty as OTL!

As you can see, this is all very complex already. And now you want to expand? IMHO, that's hard, and nobody reasonable within the Hofburg was interested in that idea in the 1910s. Yes, Serbia and Montenegro would look neat annexed on a map - but they are the Balkan's Vietcong.
 
I think this would be the greatest approximate extent of the Austro-Hungarian monarchy with a POD after 1900.

There were plans to get Poland completely under Habsburg rule during WW1, but the Germans quickly started to wonder if that was the right outcome considering how the war in the East was fought.

Even under different circumstances, it would be a phyrric victory, most likely resulting in the loss of Galicia in the rather short run. It was in the best interest of the Hofburg to have Congress-Poland in somebody else's hands....
 
There were plans to get Poland completely under Habsburg rule during WW1, but the Germans quickly started to wonder if that was the right outcome considering how the war in the East was fought.

Even under different circumstances, it would be a phyrric victory, most likely resulting in the loss of Galicia in the rather short run. It was in the best interest of the Hofburg to have Congress-Poland in somebody else's hands....


True enough, but are there really any non-pyrrhic victories for AH possible after 1900 ? Retaining a organization similar to the one from OTL would lead to problems with a whole bunch of dissatisfied ethnic minorities, and the state would at some point probably have to choose between collapse and trying to pull off a major campaign of ethnic cleansing against Serbs at the very least, and quite possibly Slovaks or Romanians too, and even that could backfire spectacularly and only hasten the dissolution.
On the other hand, they could try to balance ethnic interests by providing autonomy for virtually every group, but that means risking a revolt of the previously privileged nations, first and foremost Croats and Hungarians.
 

BlondieBC

Banned
Actually, I'm interested in what would become of Austria-Hungary in a post-CP victory scenario. Would it end up something like the Balkans today? Or was it stable enough to continue had the disaster of WW1 not occurred?

IMO, it would still be around. Think of a small EU with a small like NATO. The question is how well it would be functioning, not if it would function. Without WW1, Russia last long into the future. I guess we could debate if the Congress of Poland or Finland gets some autonomy, but we should end up with a much larger Russia than TTL. And a since A-H treated minorities better than Russia, there is a good chance the smaller minorities in A-H would be ok with being in A-H.

Pre WW1, A-H had one of the faster growing economies. It military weaknesses were being addressed. The main problem is that they have to deal with Hungary in about 1917 or so. But if this works out, then things look good for the next 50 years. And then at some point, without a major war, all the great powers have nuclear weapons, which will largely freeze borders as OTL.
 
True enough, but are there really any non-pyrrhic victories for AH possible after 1900 ? Retaining a organization similar to the one from OTL would lead to problems with a whole bunch of dissatisfied ethnic minorities, and the state would at some point probably have to choose between collapse and trying to pull off a major campaign of ethnic cleansing against Serbs at the very least, and quite possibly Slovaks or Romanians too, and even that could backfire spectacularly and only hasten the dissolution.
On the other hand, they could try to balance ethnic interests by providing autonomy for virtually every group, but that means risking a revolt of the previously privileged nations, first and foremost Croats and Hungarians.

I agree very much, that there is no such things as a sensible idea to expand for Austria-Hungary in the 20th century. Franz Ferdinand understood that. That's why he generally opposed war against Serbia. He knew that even victory, even annexation, would bring more problems than it solved.

I do, however, not see ethnic cleansing. First of all, such a measure is dead-set against the life-principle of the monarchy. Without it being supra-national, it has no raison d' etre. And secondly, the Serbs within the monarchy weren't the problem, actually.

I agree that the organisation of 1900 is close to untenable. Austria-Hungary would have to give the equal set of rights to most or all of its ethnics.

Actually, the only nation where I see a risk of open revolt in peacetime are the Hungarians. This might be offset by linking the cancelling of the "Ausgleich" with the introduction of universal equal suffrage.

And concerning the Croats, I am not so sure. In a fair solution, they'd get the upper hand in Dalmatia and Küstenland, too. Though Krain (Slovenia) stands probably out of the question, I think that FF was inclined to add B-H to the Croatian "Crown".
 
I could see Austria-Hungry annexing Albania as it was trying to gain independece from the Ottomans. If the central powers won World War One I could see them annexing Venice
 
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