Large Francophone Minority in the US?

How can we get at least %15 of the US population by the 21st century speaking French as a native language with a POD after the ARW? Is it possible at all?
 
Greater Huguenot immigration could do the trick. About a million were forced from France under Louis XIV between 1690-1710 America had a population of 250,000-500,000 at the time.
 

archaeogeek

Banned
Greater Huguenot immigration could do the trick. About a million were forced from France under Louis XIV between 1690-1710 America had a population of 250,000-500,000 at the time.

Similarly, not having the french colonies closed all of a sudden to huguenot immigration (which is why it trickled down to not so much)
 
You would need a section of the US where Francophone immigrants not only settled but maintained a majority and defended their heritage to the present day. In the French-speaking St. John Valley of northern Maine, on the Canadian border, there was a concerted effort to stamp out the French language from post-WWII into the 1970s, with schoolchildren forbidden to speak French. The influence of the Catholic Church and French-speaking Canada just across the border helped retain the language, though, and today the St. John Valley is largely bilingual.

On the other hand, large immigrant Francophone populations from Quebec also settled in the textile mill towns in southern Maine, such as Lewiston and Biddeford, in the late 1800s. Today it's rare to hear French spoken in those formerly Quebecois towns, especially among the younger population, because they've been assimilated into the larger surrounding culture.
 
15% is a tough ask, because the non-French immigrants aren't likely to integrate with the French-speaking community, they are going to integrate with the English-speaking multi-national community on the coast 9 times out of 10 or higher. Thus, at the point of independence you'd need that % of French speakers to be much much higher, as their community isn't going to grow at the same rate as the English-speakers.

It's a bit cheating but I'd suggest that your best bet involves a smaller USA - say, one that couldn't prevent a southern secession over the slavery issue. You'd probably also require a POD which makes French North America much better populated and possibly larger at the expense of British North America. You may also need a USA where the French community is only part of the country as part of some autonomous agreement. I dunno, there's a lot of little ifs, and all together they make it somewhat unlikely.
 
french immigration in US (19 century)

Another way is a greater wave of french immigrants in XIX century (similarly to the irish, german or italian), at least 10.000.000. The immigrants would locate in the same place (for example New Orleans or New York) and retain their identity.
 

Skokie

Banned
Canada joins the Revolution but have a falling-out with the 13 colonies and soon form their own republic—which the Yanks nonetheless support in order to keep the British out of North America. For 100 years they absorb French, Irish, Italian and German immigrants. C. 1900 they begin migrating to US industrial cities. C. 1950 they rejoin the Union.
 
Another way is a greater wave of french immigrants in XIX century (similarly to the irish, german or italian), at least 10.000.000. The immigrants would locate in the same place (for example New Orleans or New York) and retain their identity.

But why would the French immigrants come ITTL but not in OTL, and what could have them keeping their cultural identity, which neither the Irish, German, Italian, or any other group has managed to do?
 

archaeogeek

Banned
But why would the French immigrants come ITTL but not in OTL, and what could have them keeping their cultural identity, which neither the Irish, German, Italian, or any other group has managed to do?

The italians are recent enough for large amounts of them to still speak italian; we'll see. There's something like half a million german speakers in PA, elsewhere, though, true. As for french emigration, you need population growth sufficient for France to be overpopulated, something which didn't happen IOTL; it would also cause massive butterflies in Europe because this means a France that's still more populated than Germany. That said, yes, that kind of migration would have trouble lasting, unless it was concentrated in Louisiana which has french history AND which had a much larger french minority at the time.
 
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Another way is a greater wave of french immigrants in XIX century (similarly to the irish, german or italian), at least 10.000.000. The immigrants would locate in the same place (for example New Orleans or New York) and retain their identity.

10 million in one century? That would mean that for the 19th century, roughly 10% of all Frenchmen born would end up migrating, and all to the same area of the same country. That would be an incredible migration, and enough of a threat to the French population (which was at about 38 million by 1900 and about 27m 100 years earlier) that before the century was half way through the French government would be banning migration for fear of France being left short-handed.
 

Skokie

Banned
You need to have a French colony or independent francophone country with a francophone elite for this to work. Otherwise, you'll have the situation that the Louisianans, Acadians, and, to a lesser extent, the Quebecers faced.
 
10 million in one century? That would mean that for the 19th century, roughly 10% of all Frenchmen born would end up migrating, and all to the same area of the same country. That would be an incredible migration, and enough of a threat to the French population (which was at about 38 million by 1900 and about 27m 100 years earlier) that before the century was half way through the French government would be banning migration for fear of France being left short-handed.

Here is a scenario. The flight to Varennes is successful. Louis XVI manages organize a counter coup and quickly stamps out the Jacobin threat. The Fren Rev is thwarted. Napoleon remains a lowly artillery captain and advances to Colonel by the end of his career. Otherwise no effect on politics. France remains largely reactionary. Lots of the more radical French are welcomed by Jefferson's US. Seeing the success of the French in Jefferson's America as well as opportunities to settle in the new region of Texas. Many French emigrate, the opportunity to own land and to not have to pay taxes is too much for most French. Sorry no numbers or anything just a rough thumbnail sketch.

IOTL the Napoleonic wars, fielded huge amounts of Frenchmen and thus huge French casualties. If there is no Napoleonic war's there should not be huge amounts of dead Frenchmen and thus more French men to help sire a new Generation of French. Consequently, too many French not enough land; thanks to a more Francophilic US, more welcoming to French in general.

Thoughts?
 
Here is a scenario. The flight to Varennes is successful. Louis XVI manages organize a counter coup and quickly stamps out the Jacobin threat. The Fren Rev is thwarted. Napoleon remains a lowly artillery captain and advances to Colonel by the end of his career. Otherwise no effect on politics. France remains largely reactionary. Lots of the more radical French are welcomed by Jefferson's US. Seeing the success of the French in Jefferson's America as well as opportunities to settle in the new region of Texas. Many French emigrate, the opportunity to own land and to not have to pay taxes is too much for most French. Sorry no numbers or anything just a rough thumbnail sketch.

IOTL the Napoleonic wars, fielded huge amounts of Frenchmen and thus huge French casualties. If there is no Napoleonic war's there should not be huge amounts of dead Frenchmen and thus more French men to help sire a new Generation of French. Consequently, too many French not enough land; thanks to a more Francophilic US, more welcoming to French in general.

Thoughts?

The premise works alright, though the French didn't exactly have much of a reputation or mindset for migrating in large numbers before this point. I still wonder if the French government, faced with such large numbers of emigrants, would just sit and watch them leave though. More likely is that they started actively passing laws to prevent Frenchmen leaving for fear of depopulation. I mean, 10% of your population leaving every generation (and all for the same country...this scenario would probably encourage extra French migration to other countries, too) is enough to get most people very worried. You could be looking at a year 2011 where, rather than the 65 million French population OTL, you could have a France of, say, 55 million or lower. That's a huge change.
 
Have France hold on to Louisiana for a longer time, long enough to build up its relatively sparse French population. The US will annex it eventually, but by that time have a large enough French presence that the American cultural-demographic bulldozer won't be able to completely push it away. And the population could spread westward from there, filling, say, parts of Texas and Kansas with Francophones.

This might be out there, but some kind of 1780s PoD could also be possible that could result in France getting some piece of North America back at the end of the war, which an expansionist USA could take over later.
 

archaeogeek

Banned
Here is a scenario. The flight to Varennes is successful. Louis XVI manages organize a counter coup and quickly stamps out the Jacobin threat. The Fren Rev is thwarted. Napoleon remains a lowly artillery captain and advances to Colonel by the end of his career. Otherwise no effect on politics. France remains largely reactionary. Lots of the more radical French are welcomed by Jefferson's US. Seeing the success of the French in Jefferson's America as well as opportunities to settle in the new region of Texas. Many French emigrate, the opportunity to own land and to not have to pay taxes is too much for most French. Sorry no numbers or anything just a rough thumbnail sketch.

IOTL the Napoleonic wars, fielded huge amounts of Frenchmen and thus huge French casualties. If there is no Napoleonic war's there should not be huge amounts of dead Frenchmen and thus more French men to help sire a new Generation of French. Consequently, too many French not enough land; thanks to a more Francophilic US, more welcoming to French in general.

Thoughts?

Doesn't address the main problem: France has only had slow and steady growth since the 17th century.
 

Skokie

Banned
I personally like the idea of a French conquest of Texas and points west. Houston could become a Buenos Aires-like metropolis and California's mediterranean climate would be ideal for transplanting crops and people from the Midi and Italy.
 

archaeogeek

Banned
I personally like the idea of a French conquest of Texas and points west. Houston could become a Buenos Aires-like metropolis and California's mediterranean climate would be ideal for transplanting crops and people from the Midi and Italy.

There was some noise for France to take the state of Texas as payment from Mexico defaulting on its debts in the early 19th century.
 
I personally like the idea of a French conquest of Texas and points west. Houston could become a Buenos Aires-like metropolis and California's mediterranean climate would be ideal for transplanting crops and people from the Midi and Italy.


Not really a conquest more an expansion of projects like Burr's and Count de Castor and others, at least in my mind.

Doesn't address the main problem: France has only had slow and steady growth since the 17th century.


I thought the demographic issue was acute from 1820ish forward. I was unaware of that. Do you have a source? This will affect my own TL. I appreciate the assistance.
 

archaeogeek

Banned
Not really a conquest more an expansion of projects like Burr's and Count de Castor and others, at least in my mind.




I thought the demographic issue was acute from 1820ish forward. I was unaware of that. Do you have a source? This will affect my own TL. I appreciate the assistance.

It mostly became acute because the 19th century saw massive growth in other european countries, but IIRC estimated of French population have it growing by something like only 6 million during the 18th century compared to Britain doubling. Sadly, can't think of a source of the top of my head... Populstat is generally well researched I guess >.>
 
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