Scotland
Right. The plan for Scotland is as follows:
Margaret of Scotland (the Maid of Norway) rules under the regency council of the so-called '
Guardians of Scotland' until her marriage to Prince Edward (future Edward II of England) in 1298. She gives birth to a daughter (Elizabeth) in 1303, and two sons (Edward in 1307, Richard in 1311).
When Edward I of England dies in 1309, Margaret's husband takes the English throne as King Edward II. His misjudged attempts to bring the two nations' systems of taxation into alignment tap into a vein of Scottish discontent, triggering a revolt that quickly turns into a Civil War, as all kinds of grievances and tensions bubble up to the surface.
Loyalties are divided, to say the least. Led by the Red Comyn, who decries Margaret as little more than a puppet of her husband, a significant minority of Scots regard any English meddling in Scottish affairs as intolerable. They seek to depose Margaret and install their leader as her successor.
However, despite being wary of Edward, the majority respect Margaret’s birthright. A small faction support the joint rule of Edward and Margaret, whilst another faction launches a simultaneous rebellion against 'English imperialism' in lieu their position as a separate kingdom as stipulated in the original treaties of Birgham. Still, most of the influential figures in the Scottish nobility take the pragmatic route, declaring neutrality, and waiting to see which way the tides of war turn, rather than risk throwing in their lot with a losing army.
Margaret sends messengers to Norway to request military aid. The first messenger drowns in a storm, whilst the second is delayed.
Meanwhile, unwilling to deploy English troops in fear of alienating their supporters, and amid the Red Comyn’s occupation of much of northern and eastern Scotland, Margaret and Edward approach the Bruce dynasty. Initially, their pleas for aid fall on deaf ears, but the deal is made when Margaret offers to endow Robert with the Scottish Lord Chancellorship. Robert agrees to commit his forces on the condition that the original treaties of Brigham are to remain when determining the nature of the rule of Scotland once the conflict is over.
Eventually, Norway sends a response. Haakon V (Margaret's uncle?) has committed several units of Norwegian infantry and a number of warships to the conflict and, with Norwegian aid, the superior forces of Edward II and Robert the Bruce drive back the armies of the Red Comyn. But then, things begin to drag on. The various armies fight back and forth along a relatively stable frontier for several months, with neither side gaining any real advantage.
Tentative negotiations lead to cease fire and, in 1314, a treaty is signed. The Northernmost quarter/fifth of Scotland, having been occupied by the forces of the Red Comyn, are given over to an independent Kingdom of Albany ruled by the Comyn dynasty, whilst the rest is retained by Margaret and the Plantagenets. Norway solidifies its control of Orkney and the Shetlands. Robert the Bruce becomes Scottish Lord Chancellor and, in 1317, Elizabeth (Margaret's daughter) marries Thomas Bruce; Robert's son and heir.
Unexpectedly, in 1318 Margaret dies from a fever. The throne of Scotland passes to her eleven-year-old heir, Edward (also heir to the throne of England after his father) who is placed under the regency of the Lord Chancellor and self-styled Guardian of Scotland, Robert the Bruce.
Eventually, after the death of Edward (who will presumably be monarch of both Scotland and England, if only for a little while) I think that either Thomas Bruce or his son (by Elizabeth) will issue a claim to the Scottish throne claiming matrilineal decent from Margaret, whilst England remains firmly in the hands of the Plantagenets. What happens then? Presumably an Anglo-Scottish conflict of some sort fought against the background of the Black Death.
Albany remains under the rule of the Comyn family, who intermarry with a cadet branch of the Balliols. The kingdom of Albany ends up as a Gaelic nation that considers itself the legitimate successor of pre-Plantagenet Scotland. With Norway retaining Orkney and the Sheltands, trade between Norway and Albany seems likely.
Now, the big question: What does this do to Ireland? Answers on a postcard...
