Lands of Red and Gold

[Jared]

Fascinating. All the more so because I am cognizant that if you'd written it seven months ago, before I started on Chinese, I would have skimmed it without substantial interest.

I never figured it was a big enough matter to bring up in a post before, but if people ask, I will usually answer.

You've referred to your.... aptitude for detail.... as a psychological issue in the past. I occasionally wish my borderline OCD covered the skills you have. Love it.

Well, I was half-kidding when I called it a psych issue, but it is something where I try to get the details right.

So basically nearly identical to IPA, except for the palatal plosives and /ŋ/ on the end of the words.

I'm not familiar with all of the details of the IPA, so I'm not completely sure what those sounds are equivalent to. I've based the sounds and transcription of the *Australian languages on actual Aboriginal languages. The transcription of those into English wasn't always consistent, to say the least.

EDIT2: Is the sound represented by r a trill /r/ or approximant /ɹ/? And is the vowel length a feature that can distinguish words from each other, like in latin, or not, like in english?

Usually /ɹ/ in most languages, although some of them have a trill for some words. Where these differ, though, they are allophones; no *Australian language distinguishes between those sounds to make different words.

Vowel length also doesn't distinguish between words (except possibly in the Junditmara language; I haven't decided for that one yet). In Gunnagalic languages at least, vowel length is just a matter of dialect.

On another note, I'm going to be offline for most of the next couple of weeks. LRG will continue sometime after I return.

 

[Jared]

Lands of Red and Gold Interlude #1: In The Balance

I'm only briefly in town en route to a new destination, so there aren't any big new LRG instalments coming for a while yet.

In the meantime, though, I can offer a brief glimpse of one part of the future...

* * *

The Huntsman’s Club
Providence [Mwanza, Tanzania]

A cool evening breeze blew off Lake Fons [Lake Victoria], swirling through the columns that formed the outer wall of the Club. Wonderfully cooling, wonderfully soothing.

“This is the life,” Peter muttered to himself. He held a glass of duranj [1] in his hand, and took another slow sip of the sweet beverage.

No need to hurry. Nothing at the Club needed to be rushed. A relict of a former age, that. A time of culture and pleasure now fading. The Club stood as one of the last bastions of that elder time.

A few other men shared the lower dining level with him, clustered in groups of two or three or four. All had tables shaded beneath the columns, but with enough room that they kept at least one table between them.

The Club had higher levels; the columns supported private balconies on the floors immediately above, and the rooftop level – the Lodge – was reserved for the most distinguished guests. Or wealthiest, at least; in the elder age which the Club preserved, those two were usually synonymous.

Peter had never been as high as the Lodge. No mere commander of mercenaries would be so considered, according to the ancient traditions of the Club, except by invitation only. He did not really care, in truth. Being admitted to the Club was welcome enough, and even the common dining room here was exquisite.

He took another measured sip of the duranj. Perfect in its flavour, of course. The Club would not serve anything of lesser quality, whether drink or food.

A discreet cough made him turn to the immaculately dressed black waiter who stood behind him.

The waiter said, “The Colonel presents his compliments, sir, and asked me to give you this.” He handed over a note.

Peter took it with a murmured word of thanks. He knew more than a few colonels, but only one who would use the unadorned title as his name.

Sure enough, when he opened the note, it read: “Please join me for dinner up at the Lodge.” It bore a simple signature: Hans.

A welcome invitation, as far as Peter was concerned. The note was sufficient to gain him entry up the three flights of stairs that led up to the Lodge.

Here, he found that the main part of the Lodge consisted of a large dining room, with widely-spaced oak tables – a valuable import in itself – and comfortable leather lounge chairs arranged around them. A piano played softly in the corner; the white musician had picked a tune which Peter did not recognise, but which sounded suitably soothing.

“Peter!” the Colonel exclaimed, and rose from his seat to clap the other man around the shoulder.

“Good to see you again,” Hans said.

“Likewise,” Peter said. “You’re looking well.”

The phrase was more than just polite chit-chat. Hans wore his full dress uniform, mainly cobalt blue with scarlet trimmings, and scarlet and gold epaulettes that bore two diamonds and stylised eagle’s wings. That appearance suited him better than he had looked when in the field, although even then the Colonel had always maintained a sense of quiet dignity.

Hans signalled for a waiter. “What are you drinking?”

“Duranj.”

“Ah, a good choice, here,” the Colonel said. “Not my own preference, though.”

When the black waiter arrived, Hans ordered duranj for Peter but sake for himself. “Won’t drink anything else while I’m in the Club,” the Colonel explained. “Would even have it in the field, if we could get it.”

“While they’re coming, can I offer you a cigar?” Hans said. “Habana gold.”

“Thank you, no,” Peter said. A very odd choice, even in the Club. “Don’t think I’ve ever seen you smoke tobacco before.” He produced a pack of klinsigars [cigarettes] and said, “Kunduri has always been my choice; much more soothing.”

Hans shrugged. “Quality tobacco suits me, when I can find it. Not many places can make a decent cigar, but Habanas are always worthwhile.”

Peter had his own views on that, but no point to disagreeing openly with as eminent a man as the Colonel. He just lit a klinsigar of his own, and let the sweet relaxation fill him.

The drinks arrived, but Hans did not touch his until he had his cigar let, inhaled, and blew a near-perfect smoke ring. “This is what we’re here for: a place of peace.”

“A peace too long in coming,” Peter said.

“I’ll drink to that, by God!” the Colonel said. True to his word, he held up his glass, tapped it against Peter’s, and said, “To peace. Long in coming, and long may it last.”

Peter matched the toast, then drank. He added, “Good not to worry about skinnies charging out of unknown shadows and shouting danadiri [2].”

“Aye, we both saw too much of that,” the Colonel said. He inhaled from the cigar and blew another smoke ring, this one more deformed than the first. “So many memories... but the skinnies will long remember us, too.”

Peter nodded, and turned his attention to finishing his klinsigar. Feeling much more comfortable, he said, “Maybe we could have done some things better, but my boys – and your regulars – taught the skinnies that we won’t give up.”

“Do you think-” Hans said, then paused as the waiter returned. “Another duranj and sake. Then all three courses, please.”

The black man nodded and effortlessly vanished into whatever space waiters occupied when they weren’t needed.

The order at the Lodge was another reminder of that fading elder age. The Club had no menus for food. If you wanted food, you ate whatever the chef had prepared for each meal. Your only choice was ever how many courses you wanted.

Over more drinks and inhalants, they reminisced about the uprisings, and their careers in them. They spoke of good times and bad times, of fallen comrades, of setbacks and victories.

The food arrived one course at a time, and they ate while they talked. The first course was creamed mushrooms in barley soup, with toasted sticks of cheese fingerbread on the side. High quality, of course. If anything, even better here at the Lodge than downstairs in the Club’s ordinary dining room – and what was served down there was magnificent.

The main course was black noodles with beef and diced tomatoes, seasoned with peanut sauce and crushed sweet peppers, with roasted murnong sprinkled with garlic on the side. “Superb, as always,” the Colonel said, after they had worked most of their way through their portions of mains.

Peter wondered, vaguely, what dessert would be.

He would never get to find out.

They finished their mains, and the waiters were unexpectedly slow in clearing away their used plates. Most unlike the service at the Lodge; enough to make the Colonel signal for a waiter again.

One came quickly enough when summoned. “We’re ready for dessert,” the Colonel said.

The waiter cleared the table and disappeared into the kitchen.

Apparently satisfied, the Colonel went back to discussing the Battle of the Gorge, where it seemed that his regulars had played a more successful part than Peter recalled.

Another waiter appeared from the kitchen, moving rather slowly, and stood in the middle of the dining room. An odd location to wait, that, since waiters were usually against the walls. Peter turned enough to look at the water, and realised that the man was talking to himself. After several field interrogations, Peter knew enough to read the waiter’s lips and recognise the words for what they were: a prayer for final harmony.

Instinct took over. Peter pulled the Colonel to the ground, tipped the table to its side, and crouched behind it, hoping that the solid weight of oak would offer enough protection. He just had time to cover his ears to protect against the worst of the noise when he heard a great shout of “Danadiri!” Followed by an explosion, then screams.

Peter held the Colonel down until it was clear that the explosion had passed, then stood to look out over a scene of carnage. Nothing much was left of the waiter who had immolated himself. Around that lay wrecked men and wrecked furnishings; men dismembered or otherwise grievously injured.

“Merciful God,” the Colonel said. “That man just...”

“Those heathen skinnies have just started a new kind of war,” Peter said. “One I’m not sure I know how to fight.”

* * *

[1] Duranj is gum cider, brewed from the sweet sap of trees native to *Tasmania.

[2] Danadiri is the Bantu-ized equivalent of dandiri, a Nangu (and other Plirite) word which means roughly “bringing order” or “bringing harmony”.

* * *

Thoughts?

 

[Hendryk]

This drops tantalizing hints about later developments. But I guess we won't find out which ones for a while, considering that this seems to be taking place in the 20th century or thereabouts, and there's a long way to go yet.

[1] Duranj is gum cider, brewed from the sweet sap of trees native to *Tasmania.

I'd like to taste that.

 

[mojojojo]

skinnies? Where does that name come from and who does it apply to?

 

[Geekhis Khan]

Oh hell!

Bantu Plirite Suicide Bombers.

Very well written!

 

[mojojojo]

Is sake more popular in this TL than in OTL or is that just a quirk of Hans?

 

[Jared]

This drops tantalizing hints about later developments.

Ya, about a few things, some more obvious than others.

But I guess we won't find out which ones for a while, considering that this seems to be taking place in the 20th century or thereabouts, and there's a long way to go yet.

This is certainly set in Africa in an anti-colonial period. As to the year... well, I'm not trying to be cryptic, but I'm not 100% sure yet. As mentioned during the "essay", the problem is that there are factors both pushing earlier technological advancement and sociocultural events (including imperialism), and other factors holding it back. I'm not sure yet what the net effect will be.

On a broader note, there is a long way to go yet, but perhaps not as far as you might think. At some point before too much longer, the accumulated changes and butterflies will mean that I can't keep up the sort of detailed year by year depiction of events in the LRG world. Just too much will have changed to keep track of.

At that point, I'll have to switch either to "broad sweep of history" mode to depict the world, or just have long chronological jumps - skipping say, from 1650 to 1730 and then some detailed posts showing the world as it is then, and then forward again. One way or the other, the twentieth century will show up.

I'd like to taste that.

So would I. There's currently some efforts to create commercial plantations of cider gums. If they are successful, the gum cider may well be available.

skinnies? Where does that name come from and who does it apply to?

It's a derogatory name applied to black Africans (mostly those in Africa). It comes from their allegedly thin physiques (being seen as starving). It could theoretically be applied to any black Africans, but in practice it is mostly used for the "heathen" (Plirite) Bantu-speaking peoples of Africa.

In OTL, it's currently used as a derogatory name for Somalians - and perhaps others, I'm not sure.

Oh hell!

Bantu Plirite Suicide Bombers.

Very well written!

Merci.

And yes, this world is going to be a complicated place.

Is sake more popular in this TL than in OTL or is that just a quirk of Hans?

A bit of both. Not everyone drinks it - Hans has his own affectations - but it is popular enough that it is stocked even in somewhere like the Huntsman's Club on the shores of Lake *Victoria.

 

[Death]

May I ask the date on which this latest instalment takes place (maybe early 19th century)?

 

[Thande]

Sounds like Tasmania will become a Dutch(?) colony?

Re diseases, I've just realised there's one I don't think we have discussed before--Yellow Fever. I believe the first recorded case of it jumping the Atlantic to America was in the 1640s, so...

 

[Jared]

May I ask the date on which this latest instalment takes place (maybe early 19th century)?

This is set in what would be the equivalent of the decolonisation period of OTL, roughly somewhere between 1945-1965. Obviously the details of potential decolonisation are quite different, including whether the anti-colonial movements succeed. (One of them having just needed to resort to drastic tactics).

The reason I can't specify a year isn't because I'm trying to be obtuse, but because I genuinely don't know yet. There's a range of factors which are pulling technological and social progress both faster and slower than in OTL, and until I've worked out the overall effects of those, then I can't work out years.

For instance, the following factors are, on the whole, speeding up progress:

- Aururian crops allowing the world to sustain a larger population, in the long run (more potential inventors, etc)
- The labour shortage caused by the first Aururian plagues in 1625-35 may encourage more efficient use of labour etc (eg better machinery and use of mechanical power such as windmills, watermills, and eventually industrialisation)
- Some Aururian commodities adding to net world trade and thus size of the global economy etc
- Some contributions to knowledge which came from Aururia itself originally (eg in medicine, and the concept of peer review in science)
- The effects of observing Aururian diseases in Eurasia, and Eurasian diseases in Aururia, may encourage a more scientific world-view of disease, earlier than in OTL
- Having the Aururians themselves adds slightly to global population and thus potential markets, more potential inventors, etc.

The following factors are, on the whole, reducing technological progress
- Smaller world population for a while due to Aururian plagues, both the first-off hit and the ongoing slowing of population growth rates thanks to Marnitja (a long-term killer). This means smaller world markets and fewer potential inventors
- The initial hit of the Aururian plagues (1625-1635) was just when the scientific revolution was developing in OTL, and this may delay the process for a few years due to the deaths or non-birth of some of the key figures
- The effects of Aururian contact will make some valuable goods in OTL relatively worthless earlier than in OTL (eg peppers), and thus reducing trade in those items, and this may reduce the overall global market too.

The wild-card is Plirism: will that faith overall enhance or slow progress. I haven't worked that one out yet either.

Sounds like Tasmania will become a Dutch(?) colony?

It will be named after a Dutch explorer, but that doesn't necessarily mean it's a Dutch colony. It was named after a Dutch explorer in OTL, too (Tasman), but was never a Dutch colony.

There are reasons why a European name may become the popular one for the island even if it's not a European colony or colonies, eg being an outside name means that the Tjunini and Kurnawal (who hate each other) can use that name as a neutral name rather than using their own (which would anger the others).

Re diseases, I've just realised there's one I don't think we have discussed before--Yellow Fever. I believe the first recorded case of it jumping the Atlantic to America was in the 1640s, so...

I believe that the shipping distance between Australia and the origins of the disease in Africa are too long for it to be transmitted, especially if African slaves aren't being transported. Yellow fever never made it to Australia or Asia in OTL, and while changed circumstances may mean that it gets transmitted ATL, I think that it's relatively unlikely.

 

[Thande]

It will be named after a Dutch explorer, but that doesn't necessarily mean it's a Dutch colony. It was named after a Dutch explorer in OTL, too (Tasman), but was never a Dutch colony.

There are reasons why a European name may become the popular one for the island even if it's not a European colony or colonies, eg being an outside name means that the Tjunini and Kurnawal (who hate each other) can use that name as a neutral name rather than using their own (which would anger the others).

I was working off the fact that the Colonel was called Hans. Peter is an English name but I wasn't sure if you were just 'translating' Pieter.

 

[Lord Insane]

I was working off the fact that the Colonel was called Hans. Peter is an English name but I wasn't sure if you were just 'translating' Pieter.

Well, Hans can also be found in Scandinavia and Germany, as can Peter... even if the Dutch would be the main contenders now, there is a possibility of the island ending up as the colony of someone else in the end.

 

[Geekhis Khan]

This is set in what would be the equivalent of the decolonisation period of OTL, roughly somewhere between 1945-1965. Obviously the details of potential decolonisation are quite different, including whether the anti-colonial movements succeed. (One of them having just needed to resort to drastic tactics).

The reason I can't specify a year isn't because I'm trying to be obtuse, but because I genuinely don't know yet. There's a range of factors which are pulling technological and social progress both faster and slower than in OTL, and until I've worked out the overall effects of those, then I can't work out years.

For instance, the following factors are, on the whole, speeding up progress:

- Aururian crops allowing the world to sustain a larger population, in the long run (more potential inventors, etc)
- The labour shortage caused by the first Aururian plagues in 1625-35 may encourage more efficient use of labour etc (eg better machinery and use of mechanical power such as windmills, watermills, and eventually industrialisation)
- Some Aururian commodities adding to net world trade and thus size of the global economy etc
- Some contributions to knowledge which came from Aururia itself originally (eg in medicine, and the concept of peer review in science)
- The effects of observing Aururian diseases in Eurasia, and Eurasian diseases in Aururia, may encourage a more scientific world-view of disease, earlier than in OTL
- Having the Aururians themselves adds slightly to global population and thus potential markets, more potential inventors, etc.

The following factors are, on the whole, reducing technological progress
- Smaller world population for a while due to Aururian plagues, both the first-off hit and the ongoing slowing of population growth rates thanks to Marnitja (a long-term killer). This means smaller world markets and fewer potential inventors
- The initial hit of the Aururian plagues (1625-1635) was just when the scientific revolution was developing in OTL, and this may delay the process for a few years due to the deaths or non-birth of some of the key figures
- The effects of Aururian contact will make some valuable goods in OTL relatively worthless earlier than in OTL (eg peppers), and thus reducing trade in those items, and this may reduce the overall global market too.

The wild-card is Plirism: will that faith overall enhance or slow progress. I haven't worked that one out yet either.

And that's not the half of it. OTL's IR was a "perfect storm" mix of agricultural, economic, educational, industrial, scientific, and technological factors all on top of each other there in England that all played on each other, creating an autocatalytic situation where each new invention or discovery fed the next three. That may not be the case in another situation.

Do you have an independent, educated, wealthy group with the time/resources/motivation to invest in Industrial growth? If England's post-plague demographic and economic shifts destroy the middle class dissenter population that combined educational advantages, available wealth, work ethic, and newer economics then the major OTL group that built that 'perfect storm' is gone. Who replaces them ITTL? Could be anywhere in Europe or even the OE under the right circumstances...assuming such a group appears anywhere at all.

And then, assuming that independent and educated middle class exists, do they have acess to technology, demand, resources, etc.

And assuming they have these, is there enough information sharing to let ideas cross-polinate?

More:

Do OTL's same enlightenment philosophers and scientists live or die in the plagues?

Do early steam engines experiments appear in an area with an imediate use as OTL (coal mines) or somewhere where they become little more than single-use gadgets or amusing toys?


If some of these factors are there but not others technology could develop in completely different ways, possibly far slower or even faster...possibly in entirely different ways along entirely different paths. Non-science-linked steam engines could be the realm for tinkers and craftsmen and evolve very slowly through trial and error rather than taking notable tech jumps as someone with thermodynamics knowledge designs one. A Newcommen-style steam engine poping up in the HRE would have huge economic and political blocks to rapid adoption or notice. An "industrial revolution" in the factory-scale production sense based wholly on wind power emerging in the Baltic is possible, but would never be able to spread far beyond the "wind belt" without an alternative power source.

Even past the initial IR tech, changes can go in utterly different ways. If internal combustion engines develop without electrical understanding then WI you never have the ability/knowledge to make effective spark plugs? Suddenly we see only Diesel-style engines, which are bigger and heavier than "gasoline" ones, which could mean no airplanes until well after cars are into "1940's" levels of sophistication. (Ironically, such a world could see airships adopted since airplanes are still too heavy with diesel engines the norm).


In other words, there are so many factors that you'll break your brain trying to consider them all for all nations.

My advise is to decide ahead of time how quickly tech advances (either as fits your vision, as your gut leads, or randomly) and then steer events to get there, because there are far too many variables at play here. Best to pick a plausible scenario and justify it through the TL.

 

[Jared]

I was working off the fact that the Colonel was called Hans. Peter is an English name but I wasn't sure if you were just 'translating' Pieter.

Peter could certainly be a translation of a non-English equivalent, yes.

Tasmania isn't where this instalment is set, though. As mentioned in the opening description of the location, it's set in *Tanzania. On the shores of *Lake Victoria, in fact. This is part of the anti-colonial struggles in Africa, not any part of Aururia.

That is, there are Plirite suicide bombers who are native to Africa in this scene. Make of that what you will.

Well, Hans can also be found in Scandinavia and Germany, as can Peter... even if the Dutch would be the main contenders now, there is a possibility of the island ending up as the coloy ny of someone else in the end.

Quite. The Hans described here (last name conveniently omitted) could be from almost any country which uses a Germanic language. Except English, oddly enough - I'm not sure what happened to the name Hans in Old English.

For *Tasmania, it is known in modern times by a Dutch name (Thijszenia) - that was mentioned in one of the earlier posts (#29, I think). But as you point out, that doesn't mean that the Dutch rule it today. And as an aside, I thought I'd used the Thijszenia name in this post, too, but realised I must have edited it out - that was why my first response may not have made much sense.

And that's not the half of it. OTL's IR was a "perfect storm" mix of agricultural, economic, educational, industrial, scientific, and technological factors all on top of each other there in England that all played on each other, creating an autocatalytic situation where each new invention or discovery fed the next three. That may not be the case in another situation.

This is one of those questions where we have no clear answer, since we're working from a sample of one. Was the IR a more or less unique case, or was it something which could plausibly have happened in a variety of regions if some broad conditions were met?

Myself, I lean more toward the "unlikely, but possible" school of thought, ie that there were several places which could have led to an industrial revolution, where the details differed but it was still enough to allow a possible *IR. I'm open to being convinced otherwise, though.

Do you have an independent, educated, wealthy group with the time/resources/motivation to invest in Industrial growth? If England's post-plague demographic and economic shifts destroy the middle class dissenter population that combined educational advantages, available wealth, work ethic, and newer economics then the major OTL group that built that 'perfect storm' is gone.

It's entirely possible that England ends up an absolute monarchy during this period, but this won't necessarily destroy this class.

Who replaces them ITTL? Could be anywhere in Europe or even the OE under the right circumstances...assuming such a group appears anywhere at all.

I haven't thought through this issue in detail, but Belgium springs to mind as the place next most likely to start an industrial revolution. Other less likely, but possible places include some parts of Germany and New England.

And then, assuming that independent and educated middle class exists, do they have acess to technology, demand, resources, etc.

And assuming they have these, is there enough information sharing to let ideas cross-polinate?

The idea of sharing information, at least, I can answer: yes. The *Scientific Revolution still includes that - more, if anything - and has an Aururian contribution to that. While some people may try to protect specific ideas, there will be enough of a notion of exchanging information to allow the spread of ideas.

More:

Do OTL's same enlightenment philosophers and scientists live or die in the plagues?

Most survive. Even if they don't, though, I think that enough momentum had started for a scientific revolution to happen. What I need to decide - and may end up just using random factors - is whether it will be slower than OTL.

Do early steam engines experiments appear in an area with an imediate use as OTL (coal mines) or somewhere where they become little more than single-use gadgets or amusing toys?

I'm inclined to think that steam engines will appear somewhere else first, and their applications will only be recognised slowly. Although the idea of an "Age of Steam" has a certain appeal.

In other words, there are so many factors that you'll break your brain trying to consider them all for all nations.

My advise is to decide ahead of time how quickly tech advances (either as fits your vision, as your gut leads, or randomly) and then steer events to get there, because there are far too many variables at play here. Best to pick a plausible scenario and justify it through the TL.

I'll certainly decide this one way or the other before I start trying to depict the later future of this TL.

Fortunately, I still have some time to decide that - there's still a century or more of this TL's progress to depict first.

I have to admit, though, my gut instinct is to figure out an entirely different, but plausible, path to an industrial revolution. Whether that makes for a slower or quicker pace of technological progress will be a consequence of that path, not a prerequisite. I'll have to think about that, although any suggestions are welcome.

Edit: One other important point is that some of the conditions for the industrial revolution (eg the British Agricultural Revolution) may happen earlier ITTL too. The Aururians have detailed knowledge of crop rotation and some other techniques which would boost agricultural productivity earlier, if that knowledge is applied. That may make up for the Aururian plagues, in fact, at least for Britain and the Low Countries (not so much for Germany).

 

[mojojojo]

It's a derogatory name applied to black Africans (mostly those in Africa). It comes from their allegedly thin physiques (being seen as starving). It could theoretically be applied to any black Africans, but in practice it is mostly used for the "heathen" (Plirite) Bantu-speaking peoples of Africa.

.

I thought the introduction of emu farming meant that overall Africans in this TL are better fed?

 

[Valdemar II]

Quite. The Hans described here (last name conveniently omitted) could be from almost any country which uses a Germanic language. Except English, oddly enough - I'm not sure what happened to the name Hans in Old English.

It didn't exist in Old English, Hans come from Yoḥanan/Johannes and are as such a name spread after the split of Low German and English. It's why Hans are usual translated John (to make it even more complicated John are translated back as johann/Johan by the Germans and Scandinavians and into Jan by the Dutch)

 

[Geekhis Khan]

This is one of those questions where we have no clear answer, since we're working from a sample of one. Was the IR a more or less unique case, or was it something which could plausibly have happened in a variety of regions if some broad conditions were met?

Exactly. And yet Technology Historians are one of the most dogmatically opinionated lot that I've met. Far too politicised of a subject nowadays, so getting unbiased analysis is another difficulty.

Myself, I lean more toward the "unlikely, but possible" school of thought, ie that there were several places which could have led to an industrial revolution, where the details differed but it was still enough to allow a possible *IR. I'm open to being convinced otherwise, though.

- - -

I haven't thought through this issue in detail, but Belgium springs to mind as the place next most likely to start an industrial revolution. Other less likely, but possible places include some parts of Germany and New England.

I'm of the same mind, and agree that some sort of IR is likely ITTL...but more and more I think it's heading off an entirely weird path unlike OTL's. You can accelerate some techs and retard others, giving TTL a real schizo-tech feel. Curious where electricity goes ITTL since it was a relative handful of seperate experimenters that drove it OTL and little in the electrical world is imediately intuitive or observable without specialized equipment. You might have a much more mechanical world. Conversely, an earlier Maxwell-type is also possible, pushing electronics/radio tech faster than OTL. If steam is getting held back ITTL then a weird world of Cavalry coordinated with radios? I think weapons tech advances as OTL, more or less.

I could really see the consequences of Auraurian crops and plagues shifting the center of population south from OTL. If Italy is suddenly a breadbasket thanks to perenial crops then perhaps there's a Second Renaissance. The OE could have a real resurgence here too and I think they would survive long enough for petroleum to make them a powerful, powerful economic and even industrial force ITTL.

Belgium is a great place for TTL's IR, having access to industrial resources, the example of Dutch economics and "windustry" (hmmm...earlier adoption of wind generators?), and an open discourse. Interestingly, the OE could be a player ITTL with it's boosted population. Could be the place where internal combustion starts up as oil is far more common than coal and I could see some Pasha investing in a non-coal engine design.

(moved by GK) Edit: One other important point is that some of the conditions for the industrial revolution (eg the British Agricultural Revolution) may happen earlier ITTL too. The Aururians have detailed knowledge of crop rotation and some other techniques which would boost agricultural productivity earlier, if that knowledge is applied. That may make up for the Aururian plagues, in fact, at least for Britain and the Low Countries (not so much for Germany).

Yes, the populations there and in the Med will boost sooner than Germany for the most part. Plus the Med has the Perenial Crops advantage, freeing up more manpower per capita! My only wonder is the Potato, which OTL made it rather quickly into Germany where its convinient ability not to be totally destroyed in the fires of war put it a step above cereals. I think either end of a London-Constatinople axis has potential, the middle not so much.

I'm inclined to think that steam engines will appear somewhere else first, and their applications will only be recognised slowly. Although the idea of an "Age of Steam" has a certain appeal.

I'll certainly decide this one way or the other before I start trying to depict the later future of this TL.

Fortunately, I still have some time to decide that - there's still a century or more of this TL's progress to depict first.

I have to admit, though, my gut instinct is to figure out an entirely different, but plausible, path to an industrial revolution. Whether that makes for a slower or quicker pace of technological progress will be a consequence of that path, not a prerequisite. I'll have to think about that, although any suggestions are welcome.

Very easy to bump steam a century either way. I mentioned steam appearing in the HRE. Pop up there and you could have it go unnoticed for a long time. Belgium is another possibility for a more OTL-like situ. Scandanavia, maybe (ph34r teh mytee Vasa steem zeplinz! ). Austria too (mines needing pumping, coal available), Bohemia in particular.

Without it wind and water power will go far longer. Curious if Aurauria has any potential there...watermills are certainly possible on the *Murray, but certainly not within the realm of the Gunagal. Their English "allies", however...

I mentioned wind generators, caveat being the unpredictable development of electricity and particularly electromagnetics (unpredictability^4). You can logically shift electrical fun as much as a century and a half or more either way.

Just for fun, here's a "Mixing board" of non-exclusive options. Just slide the "bar" in the center at "OTL" left or right for each option to suit:

Behind OTL ======||====== Ahead of OTL
Electricity (power)

Behind OTL ======||====== Ahead of OTL
Electromagnetics (radios & comms)

Behind OTL ======||====== Ahead of OTL
Electro-Chemical (batteries)

Behind OTL ======||====== Ahead of OTL
Metalurgy

Behind OTL ======||====== Ahead of OTL
Steam

Behind OTL ======||====== Ahead of OTL
Petroleum/Internal Combustion

Behind OTL ======||====== Ahead of OTL
Wind Power

Behind OTL ======||====== Ahead of OTL
Water Power

Behind OTL ======||====== Ahead of OTL
Locomotion/Engines/Drive Trains

Behind OTL ======||====== Ahead of OTL
Gearing/Mechanics (notably already well underway by PoD)

Behind OTL ======||====== Ahead of OTL
Air (Lighter-than)

Behind OTL ======||====== Ahead of OTL
Air (Heavier-than)

Behind OTL ======||====== Ahead of OTL
Chemistry/Material Science

Behind OTL ======||====== Ahead of OTL
Factory/Mass Production

Behind OTL ======||====== Ahead of OTL
Logic/Communications Theory
(Basis for Computers; tied to the punch card logic in looms, interestingly)

I think you have medicine, agriculture, and science boosted to the right already. IMO the science boost shows real hope for earlier electrical, metalurgy, chemistry/materials science, and possibly air, as a lot of scientific experimentation will be needed for those discoveries. Logic and Comms theroy OTL was highly tied to watermill looms and their punchcard system (sound familiar, CS Majors?), but doesn't have to be. Air beyond unpowered baloons/blimps will depend a lot on engine development, notably internal combustion, and electrical. Material Science and Metalurgy will affect the growth of other technologies.

If it were me, just for fun I'd go for a Schizo-tech world with delayed steam/engines but advanced electricity/EM where Hussars use hand radios to coordinate raids, Dutch wind-powered electrical grids (possibly with some battery storage) light up the factories for night shift, and saling frigates find their longitude by radioing back to Europe. But I'm weird like that.

 

[tormsen]

If it were me, just for fun I'd go for a Schizo-tech world with delayed steam/engines but advanced electricity/EM where Hussars use hand radios to coordinate raids, Dutch wind-powered electrical grids (possibly with some battery storage) light up the factories for night shift, and saling frigates find their longitude by radioing back to Europe. But I'm weird like that.

We don't have anywhere near enough of that kind of thing, most likely due to the aforementioned dogmatic types.

 

[Valdemar II]

One thing to the whole shift of power to South Europe and the Ottoman, from the 16th to the 19th century China's population exploded, it didn't translate into a stronger and more advanced state compared to Europe. In the same way I'm don't think that a population explotion in southern Europe will translate into more develop states there, in many case quite the opposite. The crops which Jared had described spreading demand very little infrastructure, which mean the population growth doesn't need a strong state for the population growth. In fact for the Ottomans it's worse than that.

In OTL we saw a population collapse on the Balkans inthe 17th and 18th century, this was to large degree caused by the Christians fleeing high taxes and corrupt officials. Many fleed to the hills, where the Ottoman presence was weak. Of course this are couldn't feed them and as such we saw a large exodus of Christians into Habsburgs domains. If they can feed themselves in the highlands, we see the same collapse of the Ottoman taxbase, while keeping a large, poor and hostile Christian population. In fact you risk to see the same in Anatolia if they too have access to crops demanding less infrastructure (through likely more with heretic Islamic groups than with Christians).

What people forget are that the boom in North European population to large extent was a late 18th century phenomen until then Germany was just repopulate the countryside from 30YW*. But we saw a shift of power to North Europe already before. it was a result of improved governance and stubborn investment into both intellectual and hard infrastructure. Poland and Mecklenburg are states which had the same environment as Brandenburg-Prussia and failed to reform.

*Yes Germany reached the pre-war population already in the early 18th century, but before 1618 it had the same population as France, and it only reached that by around 1800

 

[Shadow Knight]

One thing to the whole shift of power to South Europe and the Ottoman, from the 16th to the 19th century China's population exploded, it didn't translate into a stronger and more advanced state compared to Europe. In the same way I'm don't think that a population explotion in southern Europe will translate into more develop states there, in many case quite the opposite. The crops which Jared had described spreading demand very little infrastructure, which mean the population growth doesn't need a strong state for the population growth. In fact for the Ottomans it's worse than that.

In OTL we saw a population collapse on the Balkans inthe 17th and 18th century, this was to large degree caused by the Christians fleeing high taxes and corrupt officials. Many fleed to the hills, where the Ottoman presence was weak. Of course this are couldn't feed them and as such we saw a large exodus of Christians into Habsburgs domains. If they can feed themselves in the highlands, we see the same collapse of the Ottoman taxbase, while keeping a large, poor and hostile Christian population. In fact you risk to see the same in Anatolia if they too have access to crops demanding less infrastructure (through likely more with heretic Islamic groups than with Christians).

What people forget are that the boom in North European population to large extent was a late 18th century phenomen until then Germany was just repopulate the countryside from 30YW*. But we saw a shift of power to North Europe already before. it was a result of improved governance and stubborn investment into both intellectual and hard infrastructure. Poland and Mecklenburg are states which had the same environment as Brandenburg-Prussia and failed to reform.

*Yes Germany reached the pre-war population already in the early 18th century, but before 1618 it had the same population as France, and it only reached that by around 1800

I agree. Same with technological advancement. Just because you have more people does not equate to a more rapid technological expansion. If all those extra people are just ill educated peasants with little access to any way to do anything but work nothing much is going to get done (it comes more into affect later when you have an education infrastructure and more free time/large enough population with free time to pursue such things). You'll end up with the situation pre-Renaissance. A very high population, maxing out cropland, but whose purpose is to make wealth for the nobility.

With plagues like the Black Plague it forced the population to get creative to get things done with less people or do it more efficiently cause wages were higher. It also helps if you have a "government" that promotes such things. The Romans had a large population but they kind of discouraged such things as it would leave a bunch of slaves and poor Romans with little to do but riot which threatens the social order.