Lands of Red and Gold, Act II

Jared, I heard a brief interview today about new research on climatic change and its impact on early Polynesian immigration into the South Pacific. Thought you might find it vaguely interesting

Abstract and links follow:

Debate about initial human migration across the immense area of East Polynesia has focused upon seafaring technology, both of navigation and canoe capabilities, while temporal variation in sailing conditions, notably through climate change, has received less attention. One model of Polynesian voyaging observes that as tradewind easterlies are currently dominant in the central Pacific, prehistoric colonization canoes voyaging eastward to and through central East Polynesia (CEP: Society, Tuamotu, Marquesas, Gambier, Southern Cook, and Austral Islands) and to Easter Island probably had a windward capacity. Similar arguments have been applied to voyaging from CEP to New Zealand against prevailing westerlies. An alternative view is that migration required reliable off-wind sailing routes. We investigate the marine climate and potential voyaging routes during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA), A.D. 800–1300, when the initial colonization of CEP and New Zealand occurred. Paleoclimate data assimilation is used to reconstruct Pacific sea level pressure and wind field patterns at bidecadal resolution during the MCA. We argue here that changing wind field patterns associated with the MCA provided conditions in which voyaging to and from the most isolated East Polynesian islands, New Zealand, and Easter Island was readily possible by off-wind sailing. The intensification and poleward expansion of the Pacific subtropical anticyclone culminating in A.D. 1140–1260 opened an anomalous climate window for off-wind sailing routes to New Zealand from the Southern Austral Islands, the Southern Cook Islands, and Tonga/Fiji Islands.


http://www.abc.net.au/science/articles/2014/09/30/4096801.htm

http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2014/09/24/1408918111.abstract
 
Jared, have you considered the possibility of a future interlude or two being comprised of brief excerpts from the AH timeline within an AH timeline you dubbed 'For Want of a Yam' back in Interlude 8?

Because I am honestly interested in an abortive glimpse into a world where Tropical Aururia is also taken up by indigenous civilizations.

Also, unrelated thought, do you suppose when all's said and done an India will have been pulled in terms of European imperialism in Aururia, producing an ethnically diverse and improbable nation with boundaries arbitrarily spat out by whatever nation eventually conquered the kingdoms and empires of the Land of Gold?
 
The part of the most recent installment that covered the raids was most fascinating, Jared. Great alternate history, there. :)

Merci.

Jared, I heard a brief interview today about new research on climatic change and its impact on early Polynesian immigration into the South Pacific. Thought you might find it vaguely interesting

That is fascinating, and makes me wish I had access to the full article.

Based off the abstract alone, this does make a lot of sense, though. The Polynesians knew how to sail against the wind, but that doesn't mean that their main colonisation voyages had to be made that way. They would have had to sail against the wind to find their target areas, but it looks like they only made mass colonisation efforts when they had favourable winds.

Jared, have you considered the possibility of a future interlude or two being comprised of brief excerpts from the AH timeline within an AH timeline you dubbed 'For Want of a Yam' back in Interlude 8?

Because I am honestly interested in an abortive glimpse into a world where Tropical Aururia is also taken up by indigenous civilizations.

It's not impossible, though not for a few more posts at least. The next few posts (more or less in order) will be the first proper introduction to Pinjarra, then about the fate of the Atjuntja, then something about Gunnagalic religion, and possibly something about the Pakanga invasions of the Cider Isle.

After that... well, it may happen. Though I wouldn't want to write too many such excerpts of a timeline-within-a-timeline, or I might have to rename this timeline to The Man in the Red-Gold Castle.

Also, unrelated thought, do you suppose when all's said and done an India will have been pulled in terms of European imperialism in Aururia, producing an ethnically diverse and improbable nation with boundaries arbitrarily spat out by whatever nation eventually conquered the kingdoms and empires of the Land of Gold?

Well, the smartarse answer would be that even India didn't pull an India; British India didn't pull together a complete nation, since it ended up in 3 nations.

More seriously, there's a couple of propositions here that need to be unpacked a bit. The first proposition is that all of Aururia (or most of it) ends up conquered by European powers. That's quite probable, of course, but not necessarily a given.

The second proposition is that all (or most) of Aururia ends up under one European power. That's again possible, but by no means certain.

At the moment there's five colonial powers involved in Aururia to some degree (Dutch, English, French, Nuttana and Portuguese). It's possible that one of those powers could successfully drive out or subdue all potential rivals, except perhaps for a few enclaves - much as there were still a few other European enclaves in India (e.g. Portuguese Goa, Danish Tranquebar (for a while), French Pondicherry).

But it's equally possible that no European power ever gets sole control of Aururia. That is, with ongoing wars in Europe (and across the world), parts of Aururia may change hands between colonial powers with each new war and peace treaty, but no-one ever ends up strong enough to take control of all of it. (And it's already semi-canon that TTL's North America ends up divided between more states, so there may be some grounds for suspecting that a similar thing happens in Aururia). If this were the case, then forging any sort of pan-Aururian identity in a single state would be much more difficult, if not impossible.

Of course, if European colonial powers do manage to conquer all of Aururia and then it ends up with one European power, then yes, possibly, some sort of pan-Aururian, *India may arise. But it's far from certain, particularly in terms of the differences between south-east and south-west, and whatever ends up being formed in the tropical north.
 
Lands of Red and Gold #96: Footnotes of History
Lands of Red and Gold #96: Footnotes of History

“Easy to condemn a man as evil for what he does, but oft better to know a man as evil for what he fails to do.”
- Attributed to Pinjarra

* * *

Note: The following excerpts contain two kinds of footnotes. The first kind is those which are notes or annotations in the original allohistorical text, and these are marked with square brackets and initial letters FN, e.g. [FN1]. The second kind of footnotes is those added by the historical author, and these are marked simply with square brackets and the relevant number, e.g. [1].

* * *

From “Incredible Life: Immortal Clements
By C Ashkettle (1916) [1]. Cumberland [2]: Smith & Weston [3].

Pinjarra [FN1] was dignified and well-proportioned, with broad shoulders and well-muscled arms. His skin was dark for a man of the Five Rivers, his hair thick and curly, and he wore one of the longest beards I have ever seen on a man. He wore an anjumi like a Yadji [FN2], all checked with squares of lime green and carmine, and he wore a pendant of Mutjing jade [4].

Pinjarra habitually dressed to match the old depictions of the Good Man: a black-collared, grey tjiming that fitted loose around his neck, long sleeves with wide cuffs that hung low beneath his wrists, while the main bulk of the garment was wrapped twice round his torso and held in place with an azure sash, with a hem that just covered his knees [FN3].

* * *

From: “Together Apart
Karl Steinmann’s [5] classic 1944 translation [6] into English [7] of Pinjarra’s [8] original work Majura Namatji [9]

A ruler [FN4] is not a governor. A ruler watches, considers, and steers, but does not govern. A ruler’s role is to choose the right people to govern, those with the best knowledge, character and insight. A ruler should appoint their chosen governors, then leave them to act in accord with their talents.

Consider Weemiraga of the Old Empire [FN5]. A monarch of renown, of undoubted ability that men still remember and revere, six grosses to the year after his death [FN6]. Yet in truth Weemiraga’s accomplishments were as a general, not a monarch. As a conqueror, he was unrivalled, gaining new lands for the Empire, and earning such recognition that he was adopted into the imperial family, and in time chosen as emperor [10].

For all his military talents, Weemiraga failed to understand the difference between commanding an army and ruling an empire. He governed the Empire as if it were an army, giving orders based on his own understanding, expecting them to be obeyed, but never giving proper heed to the beliefs of others. His administration weakened the Empire while he ruled, through revolt and mismanagement, and provoked ruinous civil war after his death.

For it is truth that no one man can form a true government. No individual man can know everything, nor understand everything, nor rule everything. A single man must always rely on others to inform him of the many contradictory desires of the people, and in turn to implement his decisions. A ruler who tries to govern alone will weaken the people he rules.

The better role of the ruler is to appoint men to govern, watch them, and understand when to intervene and replace them. But the replacement must never be by direct government from the ruler. Everyone who governs must be overseen, and must be judged. If the ruler governs, then who can judge him? Who can stop the ruler from weakening the state, save by revolt which will only accomplish greater weakening?

In short, a ruler should bring marang [11] to the state, not govern the state.

* * *

[FN1] While Pinjarra is more associated with where he dwelt in later life, he was born in 1675 in Natta [Goornong, VIC], a small town in what was then southern Gutjanal. The town often changed hands between Gutjanal and the Yadji, most recently a year before Pinjarra’s birth.

[FN2] An anjumi is a kind of headband that formed part of the traditional costume of men and women under Yadji rule from about the fourteenth to the late seventeenth century. An anjumi had a variety of patterns and decorations which conveyed information about a person’s place of residence and their social rank. While Clements never discussed this with me, other sources indicate that Pinjarra developed the habit of wearing an anjumi during the time he lived in Wingan [12].

[FN3] The tjiming was part of ancient, traditional costume in the late Imperial era and in its successor kingdoms, particularly Lopitja [13]. Clements described it to me as part of ancient history, but for all his recollection of the past, he did not take much notice of how it has undergone a recent revival.

[FN4] The term which Pinjarra used for ruler was ariki, which he borrowed from Māori. He appears to have wanted a neutral term for leader which did not have any previous associations of king, emperor, or priest. This was a linguistic innovation; no previous examples have been recorded of ariki being used in such a sense, although the usage was adopted by many who were influenced by Pinjarra [14].

[FN5] Weemiraga ruled the Watjubaga Empire [15], as it is most commonly known in modern times, from 838 until his death in 853 AD. The year of his birth is not certain, but is thought to have been about 780. First a general and then an emperor, many anecdotes of his life survived during Pinjarra’s time, and some still persist until modern times. Pinjarra used tales of Weemiraga in many of his works, not just Together Apart. His referral to it as the Old Empire was a personal affectation, since Pinjarra usually referred to the Yadji as the New Empire [16].

[FN6] During Pinjarra’s era, as now, native Gunnagal and Wadang speakers counted using a base-12 system. To Pinjarra and his original intended audience, six grosses, that is, six dozen dozens, had a similar symbolic significance as six centuries would to native English speakers.

* * *

[1] Carl Amodius Ashkettle (1868-1935), a famous writer, actor, philanthropist, and chronicler [17].

[2] Cumberland is the allohistorical city that occupies roughly the same region as the historical city of Geelong, Victoria.

[3] Smith & Weston is a publishing house that mainly produces travelogues, natural histories, and biographies. Their decision to publish Ashkettle’s controversial biography created something of a stir [18].

[4] Mutjing jade is what the later seventeenth and early eighteenth-century Aururians call a form of nephrite jade mined near Munmee [19]. While this gemstone was locally known and mined during the pre-Houtmanian period, it became much more well-known because of the actions of Marulan, a Black [20] merchant from Tapiwal [Robinvale] in what was then the kingdom of Tjibarr. In 1676-77, Marulan pulled off one of the greatest commercial coups in history. He recognised that the Mutjing gemstone was related to the much-desired jade of the Old World. Marulan forged a commercial pact with the Tjula and Mudontji bloodlines of the Nuttana to purchase all available jade from the plague-ravaged [21], traumatised Mutjing who were still suffering under Dutch rule, and then sell it in Cathay and China for immense profits [22].

[5] Karl Gottlieb Steinmann (1899-1972), besides being an accomplished translator of Aururian and Cathayan texts, was also an accomplished poet in his own right, together with running a highly successful import/export firm.

[6] That is, the most recent classic translation. There have been many translations of Pinjarra’s works into Indo-European languages; the earliest translation of Majura Namatji into a European language (French) was completed in 1726 [23]. The most influential English translation (before Steinmann’s) was published in 1794 as part of the Magna Meliora [24], but by Steinmann’s era that translation was considered venerable at best and archaic at worst. Other, more recent English translations of Majura Namatji exist, but Steinmann’s version remains the most influential.

[7] Pinjarra knew six languages to varying degrees: Wadang, Gunnagal, Junditmara, Dutch, English and Latin [25]. His books were primarily written in Wadang or Gunnagal, as with this volume. However, he was familiar enough with the remaining languages to include apposite quotations in each language in some of his works. Some of his personal correspondence is written in Junditmara or Dutch, but no surviving correspondence was composed in English or Latin.

[8] Pinjarra (1675-1746) was an Aururian social philosopher, chronicler, historian, advocate, geologist, and visionary (among other things). By ethnicity he was a Yotjuwal [26], but there is no reliable surviving evidence to suggest that he ever spoke that language. He was born in a land which historically had been fought over by Gutjanal, the Yadji and occasionally Tjibarr, and he appears to have learned the languages of those realms rather than the then-dying Yotjuwal language. During his life he moved between the Five Rivers and Durigal several times, and almost never went outside of those realms, except for a relatively brief time as a captive of the Hunter’s forces. Some consider Pinjarra to be the progenitor of panollidism [27], although most consider him simply as part of the intellectual tradition which led to it.

[9] The phrase majura namatji was originally a Tjibarri expression but was borrowed verbatim into the languages of neighbouring states (Yigutji, Gutjanal, the Yadji and the Seven Sisters). A direct translation of the phrase is almost impossible; various translators have rendered the phrase into English in ways such as “Contrary Interdependence”, “Together Apart”, “Mutual Individualism”, or more liberally as “Uncommon Purpose”. In more recent scholarship, it is most common simply to use the phrase without translation.

[10] Weemiraga conquered the areas around historical Melbourne, Victoria and the Hunter Valley, New South Wales. See post #9 for more information.

[11] Marang is the Nangu (and hence Plirite) word which means “balance”. Here, Steinmann has actually translated Pinjarra’s original term into marang, which started as the Nangu word for balance but is now known more widely.

[12] Wingan is the allohistorical name for the town known historically as Daylesford, Victoria. Wingan is a highland [28] town near the continental divide, which was usually under Yadji rule but was occasionally captured by Gutjanal. Wingan had some gold mines that were mostly exhausted before European contact, with the excavated areas being flooded to support traditional Yadji aquaculture. Wingan was more noted for its abundant mineral springs which the Yadji emperors (among other, more recent inhabitants) believed to possess healing and restorative properties [29].

[13] Lopitja [Wilcannia, New South Wales] was the capital of a short-lived kingdom of the same name along the Anedeli (River Darling). Lopitja was founded during a period of aberrantly wet, cool climate which meant that the Anedeli’s environs became fertile, and in that time it grew to become a powerful kingdom. Lopitja was abandoned when the climate reverted to the drier norm. In modern times it is mostly remembered for being the birthplace of the Good Man, the founder of Plirism.

[14] And in one of allohistory’s little ironies, Pinjarra had adopted a Māori word to mean a neutral term for ruler at just that time when the Māori sense of the word ariki was shifting from a general term for leader to becoming synonymous with “king”.

[15] Watjubaga – in its native tongue, the Five Rivers – was Aururia’s largest pre-Houtmanian empire, at least in terms of area. (Estimates vary for its total population, although it was probably the largest in that category, too.) Watjubaga had long vanished by the time of European contact with Aururia, but it remained part of the historical memory of most of its former subject peoples. It left a considerable legacy, perhaps the most obvious aspect of which is that its core territory was still known as the Five Rivers for centuries afterward, up to and after European contact.

[16] However outdated such a term may have been by the time of Pinjarra’s death.

[17] Chronicler is an allohistorical term which is roughly equivalent to reporter or journalist.

[18] Some might even say that it had an explosive outcome [30].

[19] Munmee is the allohistorical name for the city which historically is called Cowell. During the Seven Sisters period, Munmee was one of a number of city-states which were ruled by local monarchs but which were under the broad hegemony of the Nangu on the Island. With growing Dutch influence, Munmee became an effective subject of their rival state of Luyandi [Port Kenney] in 1648, and part of a Dutch protectorate in 1659.

[20] i.e. Marulan was a merchant from the Blacks of the Dead Moon [new moon], one of the eight endlessly-competing factions in Tjibarr.

[21] That is, the diphtheria epidemic which went through Aururia during the early 1670s, with the Seven Sisters suffering its highest toll in 1672, and the pertussis (whooping cough) outbreak which struck several Mutjing cities and towns in 1674 [31]. This does not refer to the later outbreak of smallpox that reached the Seven Sisters in 1682 [32], or to the influenza which struck in the 1690s [33].

[22] The nation formerly known as China was split into two competing states during the 1630s, as plagues and famines weakened the authority of the ruling Ming dynasty. The new You took control of northern China, while the surviving Ming fled south and became known as the Southern Ming. Once they became aware of the division, Europeans gradually revived the name of Cathay (which was fading, but not quite lost) to refer to the You, while preserving the name China to refer to the state ruled by the Southern Ming.

[23] That is, only nine years after Majura Namatji was first published in 1717.

[24] A Latin phrase which means approximately “greater, better things”. A term used by later scholars to refer to a late eighteenth and early nineteenth century European intellectual movement which initially studied comparative religion, and thus translated Hindu, Buddhist and Plirite texts into European languages. Some Magna Meliora scholars expanded their translations to related philosophical texts such as Majura Namatji.

[25] Wadang is the language spoken by the dominant ethnicity in the kingdom of Gutjanal (as it existed at the time of European contact). Similarly, Gunnagal is the language of the largest ethnicity in the kingdom of Tjibarr, while Junditmara is the language of the ruling ethnicity in the Yadji realm (Durigal).

[26] The Yotjuwal are a people who lived along parts of the continental divide (Great Dividing Ranges), roughly between historical Seymour and Bendigo. Caught between the Five Rivers kingdoms on one side and the growing Yadji realm on the other, and relatively few in number compared to either, the Yotjuwal never formed a major state of their own. With the development of more organised states on both sides, some of the Yotjuwal were gradually assimilated into neighbouring peoples, although many of them retained a separate sense of identity even where they did not preserve their language.

[27] The term panollidism is derived from two (slightly misused) Greek roots, pan (all) and aollidin (in a body, together), with the later root being elided to form panollidism.

[28] Highland by Aururian standards, that is; its elevation is about 600 metres.

[29] And they were occasionally correct in those beliefs. The mineral springs around Wingan are rich in mineral salts, and so for any visitor who happened to be deficient in those minerals, Wingan water could provide some health benefits. On most occasions, however, the only benefits that Wingan water provided were as a placebo.

[30] Although others would say that anyone who makes a pun that bad should have their artistic licence revoked.

[31] Unlike many other epidemics, the quarantines imposed by Dutch, Nangu and Tjibarri authorities meant that this pertussis outbreak was contained within the Seven Sisters. Even some parts of the Seven Sisters were spared from pertussis.

[32] This smallpox epidemic first appeared in Narranuk [34] in 1681, and reached the Seven Sisters the following year. This marked the third time that smallpox had reached Aururia, but the first time it became a continent-wide epidemic. Smallpox had previously appeared twice in Wujal [35] in 1657 and 1673, after being carried on Nuttana trading ships (once on infected bedding, once spread between crew members). However, these outbreaks did not spread rapidly throughout the city, since many of Wujal’s inhabitants were already immune to smallpox, either those who had previously contracted it while sailing to the Old World, or Papuans who had survived it in childhood. Wujal’s leaders imposed efficient quarantines until the smallpox outbreaks subsided, and so they did not spread any further. A similar practice meant that an earlier outbreak of diphtheria (in 1663) had also been contained within Wujal. Smallpox and diphtheria only spread continent-wide after they appeared in other ports which were less efficient at imposing quarantine.

[33] Influenza outbreaks had happened in parts of Aururia before the 1690s, principally on the northwest coast where they were carried by Portuguese traders. However, a combination of the lower population density there (non-agricultural peoples, plus the death toll from previous plagues), more familiarity with epidemic diseases meaning that some peoples avoided contact with carriers, and the relatively rapid onset of influenza meant that these epidemics burned out before reaching the main agricultural parts of the continent. The first exception was Teegal [36], which suffered its first outbreak in the 1680s. Influenza finally spread into south-eastern Aururia in the 1690s after it was carried there by a Nangu trading ship which had been visiting Witte Stad [37] and returned home to the Island [Kangaroo Island].

[34] Narranuk is the allohistorical city which occupies the location that would historically be called Taree. Narranuk is the capital of a small kingdom inhabited largely by the Loomal people. During the Proxy Wars (1642-1661), the Dutch East India Company secured an exclusive trade deal (arms for spices) which turned Narranuk into an effective VOC protectorate. Narranuk was occupied by English, Dutch and (once) French forces [38] at different times during the Anglo-Dutch Wars, but at the end of those wars it was restored to Dutch control.

[35] Wujal is the allohistorical name for the town which is historically called Cooktown, Queensland. Founded in 1634 as a resupply station, Wujal grew quickly due to the exodus of Nangu from the Island during the 1640s and 1650s. For several decades it was the premier Nuttana trading port, although by the 1680s the other main Nuttana ports of Dangelong [Cairns] and Nerridella [Townsville] were growing into rivals.

[36] That is, the former Atjuntja lands (see post #97). Teegal is the Dutchified version of the Atjuntja name for their lands, Tiayal (the Middle Country).

[37] That is, the great city of the Atjuntja, which they call the White City [Albany, WA], and which has been translated into Dutch as Witte Stad.

[38] Or more precisely, by English, Dutch and French-backed forces. The troops used in such conquests were recruited from a wide variety of places, mostly in the Third World or Asia; the single largest group was always Pakanga (Māori) mercenaries.

[39] There is no footnote 39.

* * *

Thoughts [39]?
 
And now it occurs to me: if agriculture took root up throughout the tropical portions of Aururia and the northerners contacted New Guinea, that would essentially be removing the butterfly net with regards to disease, allowing the flow of infectious elements to reach both sides LONG before European colonialism came into vogue.

Possibly around the time of the Black Death, even.
 
These footnotes are great fun, with enough coffee.
Especially 39...
(I saw a math book once where the index referenced a Moishe Pipik, with the note 'see X', X had the note 'see Y' and Y had the note 'see Moishe Pipik'. (I forget what the names X and Y were, one was something like Umberto Navello).

Which all was a pun on Moishe Pipik being Yiddish for 'no one'.
 
And now it occurs to me: if agriculture took root up throughout the tropical portions of Aururia and the northerners contacted New Guinea, that would essentially be removing the butterfly net with regards to disease, allowing the flow of infectious elements to reach both sides LONG before European colonialism came into vogue.

Possibly around the time of the Black Death, even.

Smallpox was never endemic in New Guinea before European colonization though, showing that it was outside of what might be called the "Eurasian disease belt".

It never had a lot of contact with Southeast Asia, and its population was and continues to be mostly scattered by mountains, swamps and jungles. So even if there were outbreaks of Eurasian diseases in New Guinea, it's not likely that they would have made it to Aururia.
 
Smallpox was never endemic in New Guinea before European colonization though, showing that it was outside of what might be called the "Eurasian disease belt".

It never had a lot of contact with Southeast Asia, and its population was and continues to be mostly scattered by mountains, swamps and jungles. So even if there were outbreaks of Eurasian diseases in New Guinea, it's not likely that they would have made it to Aururia.

I would assume that if a civilization emerged in tropical Aururia, it would impact New Guinea pretty heavily, and that the ripples would affect Indonesia and, through it, the rest of Asia and the world, relatively quickly.
By the way, how advanced Neolithic cultures of new Guinea managed to remain outside contact with the wider world for so long is remarkably unclear to me.
 
I would assume that if a civilization emerged in tropical Aururia, it would impact New Guinea pretty heavily, and that the ripples would affect Indonesia and, through it, the rest of Asia and the world, relatively quickly.

Eh...perhaps realistically, but altering all the world's history isn't what Jared had in mind for the story purposes. Remember, Alternate-History is science-FICTION, and so sometimes realism needs to take a backseat to story.

That said, it is more justifiable here than having a N.A. agricultural POD not ripple to Europe through the Norse. The areas closest to Indonesia-lowland New Guinea and northwestern Australia-were not very affected by the POD, as they could not support the agriculture that developed in the temperate regions of Aururia. So they provided a realistic 'buffer zone' until European colonialism started.

By the way, how advanced Neolithic cultures of new Guinea managed to remain outside contact with the wider world for so long is remarkably unclear to me.

Mountains
02.jpg


Swamps
_swampl.jpg


and Jungles
P.N3-520x316.jpg
 
And now it occurs to me: if agriculture took root up throughout the tropical portions of Aururia and the northerners contacted New Guinea, that would essentially be removing the butterfly net with regards to disease, allowing the flow of infectious elements to reach both sides LONG before European colonialism came into vogue.

Perhaps not that much before. It would depend exactly when agriculture took root in northern Aururia, of course [1]. But assuming that the Aururians in the south still develop much as they do in the original TL [2], and thus that something like the Nangu develop, then yes, there would be some kind of trade exploration into New Guinea and even past it. At some point [3] the Aururian diseases would make the leap into the broader world, and at least some Old World diseases would come the other way [4].

These footnotes are great fun, with enough coffee.

What about if the coffee's been used up and there's only jeeree [5] left?

Especially 39...

Which all was a pun on Moishe Pipik being Yiddish for 'no one'.

Classic. Of course, strictly speaking, there's no footnote 39.

Smallpox was never endemic in New Guinea before European colonization though, showing that it was outside of what might be called the "Eurasian disease belt".

Was that true for all of New Guinea, or did at least some of the coastal portions have smallpox show up (if only intermittently)? New Guinea had some small level of trade with the broader world [6], so diseases may well have penetrated into parts of New Guinea. It's just that the geography meant that it may well not have spread that far within the island.

I would assume that if a civilization emerged in tropical Aururia, it would impact New Guinea pretty heavily, and that the ripples would affect Indonesia and, through it, the rest of Asia and the world, relatively quickly.

Unless protected by an even bigger butterfly net [7]. There are just too many things which could affect the world; diseases are only the most obvious. Even the spice trade [8] would be a major influence.

By the way, how advanced Neolithic cultures of new Guinea managed to remain outside contact with the wider world for so long is remarkably unclear to me.

They may have had some small-scale trade with the wider world, but if so, it was through a long chain of intermediaries, most of whom would also be in New Guinea. Plus, as twovultures said, jungles and mountains and so forth.

[1] Another example of why some people should have their artistic licence revoked.

[2] Which assumes its own butterfly net, of course, but you can't have everything.

[3] Which may be at the same time as the Black Death, yes. Although that would make for a rather despressing [9], depopulated world.

[4] Although this would depend on how long it took people to sail each way, exactly which part of the Old World they were sailing to, and so on.

[5] Which ITATL would not carry the scientific name Leptospermum petersonii, but which would still have the same calming influence.

[6] The trade in birds of paradise from New Guinea has been going on over a thousand years, if I understand it right [10].

[7] With industrial-strength butterfly wiring, perhaps.

[8] And in one of allo-allohistory's [11] little ironies, that would involve a reversal of the usual spice trade. The OTL spice trade was largely people who lived in temperate regions going sailing around the world in pursuit of crops which only grew in tropical regions. ITATL, the farmers would be in the tropics venturing into the cooler regions of southerly Aururia in pursuit of spices (sweet peppers, myrtles, etc).

[9] Like depressing, but with more typos included due to lack of coffee.

[10] i.e. going on memory and Wikipedia [12].

[11] That's allo-allo, not 'Allo 'Allo.

[12] The former of those usually being more reliable.
 
Was that true for all of New Guinea, or did at least some of the coastal portions have smallpox show up (if only intermittently)?

I don't know if it did show up intermittently through trade, but it is possible that it broke out on the western coast before Europeans arrived due to trade with Indonesian polities.
 
Perhaps not that much before. It would depend exactly when agriculture took root in northern Aururia, of course [1]. But assuming that the Aururians in the south still develop much as they do in the original TL [2], and thus that something like the Nangu develop, then yes, there would be some kind of trade exploration into New Guinea and even past it. At some point [3] the Aururian diseases would make the leap into the broader world, and at least some Old World diseases would come the other way [4].
Well, if we're going by the 'established' For Want of A Yam date of 200 BC for the appearance of the lesser yam, there's still about 400 years of the post-collapse Migrational Period to go, so chances are decent that the spread has at least begun by the end of the normal migration period.

Though the existence of an early lesser yam is not itself the existence of a Tropical Aururian agriculture package, which would be a more involved creation born of the local bush tucker by those willing to leave behind all of their old crops save one to find a new place to live which isn't so damnably dry.

I'm not going to suggest that migration to the northernmost extents would not happen until the package was mature, and indeed such expansion would be important to the birth and maturation of such a package, but I would presume that the development of the mature package is necessary for civilizations to rise in the tropical region, and for the sort of trade necessary to connect the disease beds of Aururia to the outside world to begin.
 
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I don't know if it did show up intermittently through trade, but it is possible that it broke out on the western coast before Europeans arrived due to trade with Indonesian polities.

Considering there's no evidence that New Guinea had a recent population collapse (e.g., plenty of densely populated tribes speaking very divergent tongues in the highlands), it seems pretty unlikely that New Guinea didn't have exposure to Eurasian diseases periodically during late prehistory/early history.

Not to mention, of course, Papuans themselves settled at least as far west as Timor before the Austronesian wave met them. And there's plenty of examples of some of the Eastern Indonesian polities (most notably Majapahit and Tidore having some nominal control over some of the fringe territory during historic times.)

The bottom line is if you don't believe that the Papuans had some exposure to Eurasian plagues in the past, you'd have to explain why they seem strangely resistant to Eurasian plagues. Even today, 50% of of people in "uncontacted" tribes in the Amazon die of disease upon contact with westerners, while nothing much of note happens to Papuans.

Regarding smallpox in particular, IOTL it did get into New Guinea in the late 19th century. While it caused many deaths, there was no general population collapse. That said, there was some vaccination with the later outbreaks in the 1890s, and it is noted that neighboring ethnic groups had great hostility to their smallpox-troubled neighbors, which may have stopped any direct transmission across ethnic lines.
 
Considering there's no evidence that New Guinea had a recent population collapse (e.g., plenty of densely populated tribes speaking very divergent tongues in the highlands), it seems pretty unlikely that New Guinea didn't have exposure to Eurasian diseases periodically during late prehistory/early history.

Not to mention, of course, Papuans themselves settled at least as far west as Timor before the Austronesian wave met them. And there's plenty of examples of some of the Eastern Indonesian polities (most notably Majapahit and Tidore having some nominal control over some of the fringe territory during historic times.)

The bottom line is if you don't believe that the Papuans had some exposure to Eurasian plagues in the past, you'd have to explain why they seem strangely resistant to Eurasian plagues. Even today, 50% of of people in "uncontacted" tribes in the Amazon die of disease upon contact with westerners, while nothing much of note happens to Papuans.

Regarding smallpox in particular, IOTL it did get into New Guinea in the late 19th century. While it caused many deaths, there was no general population collapse. That said, there was some vaccination with the later outbreaks in the 1890s, and it is noted that neighboring ethnic groups had great hostility to their smallpox-troubled neighbors, which may have stopped any direct transmission across ethnic lines.

The answer would be : Mollucans
 

mojojojo

Gone Fishin'
Jared, given that it is now the season of the witch will you be favoring us with another Halloween themed post?
 
The bottom line is if you don't believe that the Papuans had some exposure to Eurasian plagues in the past, you'd have to explain why they seem strangely resistant to Eurasian plagues. Even today, 50% of of people in "uncontacted" tribes in the Amazon die of disease upon contact with westerners, while nothing much of note happens to Papuans.

One possible explanation is lack of exploitation. The Amazonian natives were not just hit by disease when whites broke into their territory: they also faced slave raids and conscription into rubber plantations where they were literally worked to death, or they were massacred to clear space for cattle ranching. This prevented their recovery, and massacres of Natives in Brazil continues to this day.

While Europeans were in New Guinea in the 19th century, they did not fully realize how densely populated the interior was until they were flying over it in the 1930's. So, large chunks of New Guinea had time to get hit by diseases and recover before large scale and direct contact was made.

Also, uncontacted or low-contacted New Guineans are not necessarily better off than Amazonians when exposed to the outside world. I'll try and track down the exact article, but National Geographic had one article* which described a nomadic group in the interior who were suffering from tuberculosis due to recent interaction with the outside world. Heart-breakingly, one of their leaders told the story's writer that his people would settle down and give up their way of life in exchange for a clinic and some metal tools.

Regarding smallpox in particular, IOTL it did get into New Guinea in the late 19th century. While it caused many deaths, there was no general population collapse. That said, there was some vaccination with the later outbreaks in the 1890s, and it is noted that neighboring ethnic groups had great hostility to their smallpox-troubled neighbors, which may have stopped any direct transmission across ethnic lines.

That and New Guineans did not traditionally move around much from their homes due to the formidable environmental barriers. If they did, they would not be nearly as culturally and linguistically diverse as they are, and would have spread diseases much further than they did.

*EDIT: Found the article and it's worse than I remembered.

John said:
He says that there used to be several hundred Meakambut. Now they lose two babies for every one that lives.
 
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Well, if we're going by the 'established' For Want of A Yam date of 200 BC for the appearance of the lesser yam, there's still about 400 years of the post-collapse Migrational Period to go, so chances are decent that the spread has at least begun by the end of the normal migration period.

Though the existence of an early lesser yam is not itself the existence of a Tropical Aururian agriculture package, which would be a more involved creation born of the local bush tucker by those willing to leave behind all of their old crops save one to find a new place to live which isn't so damnably dry.

Man shall not live by lesser yams alone... :D

The emergence of a meaningful tropical package requires a bit longer than 200 BC - probably until pretty much the end of the main migration period at least. At the very least, they need to domesticate some kinds of tropical-suited wattles. That's not impossible - I had the Kiyungu and others doing that later ITTL anyway, and a wattle species that would grow in SE Qld could grow most of the way into tropical Aururia.

So there would still be a few hundred year gap before they move north in a big way. Probably still well before any potential European contact, but not extremely quick, either.

GLORY GLORY

I figured that describing the colours as green and red would be slightly too obvious. :) [1]

Jared, given that it is now the season of the witch will you be favoring us with another Halloween themed post?

If I have the time, and if I can think of some suitable inspiration. All Hallows' Eve is not really a holiday which resonates in Australia, so it's not quite as easy to come up with an appropriate instalment. So far nothing's sprung to mind, but there may be something.

[1] For those non-Aururians who aren't familiar with the cultural reference, red and green are the colours of South Sydney, a team in the national rugby league competition. They have a long history of maintaining links to the indigenous community of New South Wales, selecting a lot of young players from across the state. They appeared in their first grand final in 43 years the day after I posted this instalment. And they won, too.
 
And thus it shall be that the Europeans find Aururia in a state where Aururian civilizations occupies everything that is not a horrible desert.
 
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