Labour wins in '92: A brainstorming TL.

Let's say, that, as all the opinion polls suggested, John Major is vanquished in the 1992 General Election by Neil Kinnock. Why is entirely up to you; my PODs are that Major gains a severe sore throat, the Sun comes up with less witty anti-Labour headlines, and Kinnock never holds the Sheffield Rally. Either way, let's be generous to the Welsh Windbag, and go further than the predicted Hung Parliament; let's give Kinnock a little Labour majority of 12 seats, and unofficial pledges of support from the Liberal Democrats led by Paddy Ashdown.

Soon after entering office, Labour is going to have to deal with the E.R.M troubles that faced the Tories in OTL. Since the party had pledged that "To curb inflation. Labour will maintain the value of the pound within the European Exchange Rate Mechanism", there is little reason to suppose that a Black Wednesday analogue would never have occurred. So, when "Black Tuesday" rolls round (6 days later than OTL), the Labour party suffers national humiliation, eagerly jumped on by the Tories as proof of Labour's economic incompetence.

Still, this is Labour, and it has not been in power 13 years to earn the level of dislike that the Tories had done by OTL Black Wednesday. John Smith is considerably more sensitive and sensible than Norman Lamont when it comes to discussing Black Tuesday, so Labour is able to relatively effectively limit damage. Though the party is behind in the polls by Christmas of 1992, few in the Government are seriously worried, the Tories only have a lead of 5 or 6 points.

The Tories meanwhile, are disappointed, but not crushed by the result. John Major has done his expected job of minimising Conservative losses, and he stands down as Party Leader in September, shortly after the pleasure of gloating as Leader of the Opposition over Black Tuesday. Thereafter, the contest for the soul of the Conservative Party can begin in earnest. The Tories remain ITTL as split as ever, and the leadership election eventually boils down to three choices; the Europhiles, led by Michael Heseltine, and supported by Kenneth Clarke, the moderates, led by Douglas Hurd and supported by Malcolm Rifkind, and the Eurosceptics, led by Norman Lamont and supported by John Redwood. In the end, Douglas Hurd is appointed Leader of the Conservative Party.

Labour begins 1993 by implementing a series of reforms in the general direction of BR, hoping to turn the railway system into a glowing example of what a nationalised industry can be. The railways are pledged an extra £43m in yearly cash, to fund a new High Speed network running from the Channel Tunnel to Manchester. The Prime Minister and the Home Secretary, Tony Blair, cut the first sod of the new route.

Elsewhere, Labour busily begins the process of extending regional assemblies. The new Scottish Parliament has its first elections in 1994, which are, unsurprisingly, won by the Labour Party. The Tories, SNP, and Liberals vie for the other seats, but as yet, there is no clear "opposition" to Scottish Labour.

In 1994, the Chancellor, John Smith, steps down, to be replaced by the ambitious Gordon Brown, who is rumoured to have differences with Kinnock. Immediately, the Brown Treasury begins to implement a number of "stealth taxes" which are seized upon by the Conservative Shadow Chancellor, Michael Portillo, as evidence of Labour's "greed". Following Smith's resignation, the Government begins to slide in the opinion polls. The BSE crisis leads to heads rolling, and Labour's exciting plans for revitalising Britain's heavy industry come to naught, thanks to a determination on the part of several Labour rebels to establish a more populist, right wing, party to take on the resurgent Tories. The Chief Whip, Peter Mandelson, walks out of Government in May 1996, intending to cause a coup against the Prime Minister, but this is in vain. Kinnock holds on to the position as Prime Minister until the 1997 general election, which the Conservatives comfortably win with a majority of 48. Douglas Hurd becomes PM. Britain is a very different place.



Thoughts? This is an extremelly rough draft of a TL I may or may not come back to at some point. Still, ideas for what the Tories will do now, and much more fleshing out of Labour's actions in Government is desperately needed!
 
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Ok, a few points.
This what-if is one of my favourites. I once did an attempt at a timeline on this but failed.
Anyway, the narrow Labour win theory of just 12 seats is good. I think "Sheffield Wednesday" just eight days before the election is the turning point. I think it made Kinnock look like a total prat live on National TV, I think many floating voters where put off by it. He didn't look like a Prime-Minister.
Afterwards Major would have resigned straight away as he did in OTL in 1997. He says so in his autiobio.
Over Black Wednesday, I think it would have finished Labour. They had worked hard with John Smith to prove the labour could handle the economy, and bury the memory of the late 1970's. In my opnion it would have doomed Labour to one term within six months.
As for the Conservative Leadership campaign, I agree that Douglas Hurd would have won the leadership, a old school leader I think he would have done well. There was no way in hell, that Ken Clarke would have won in the eladership in 1992, as he proved in OTL with his three failed attempts in 97,01, and 05.
Also on The Sun, the paper would have tormented the Labour Governement, it would be a lot worse than what it is doing now.
 
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Let's say, that, as all the opinion polls suggested, John Major is vanquished in the 1992 General Election by Neil Kinnock. Why is entirely up to you; my PODs are that Major gains a severe sore throat, the Sun comes up with less witty anti-Labour headlines, and Kinnock never holds the Sheffield Rally. Either way, let's be generous to the Welsh Windbag, and go further than the predicted Hung Parliament; let's give Kinnock a little Labour majority of 12 seats, and unofficial pledges of support from the Liberal Democrats led by Paddy Ashdown.

I agree with you that it wouldn't take much for the election to go the other way, given how close the opinion polls were it would be easy for Labour to win a handful of marginals. A 12 seat majority is quite likely and I think that Ashdown would be willing to make more official signs of support, House of Lords reform and devolution would be deal breakers I think.

Soon after entering office, Labour is going to have to deal with the E.R.M troubles that faced the Tories in OTL. Since the party had pledged that "To curb inflation. Labour will maintain the value of the pound within the European Exchange Rate Mechanism", there is little reason to suppose that a Black Wednesday analogue would never have occurred. So, when "Black Tuesday" rolls round (6 days later than OTL), the Labour party suffers national humiliation, eagerly jumped on by the Tories as proof of Labour's economic incompetence.

I'm no economist but I think that this seems a sensible idea, I can see little way in which the Labour government is going to avoid withdrawal from the ERM, however, Smith was a canny fellow, I think that he may be able to pull something out of the bag in this respect.

Still, this is Labour, and it has not been in power 13 years to earn the level of dislike that the Tories had done by OTL Black Wednesday. John Smith is considerably more sensitive and sensible than Norman Lamont when it comes to discussing Black Tuesday, so Labour is able to relatively effectively limit damage. Though the party is behind in the polls by Christmas of 1992, few in the Government are seriously worried, the Tories only have a lead of 5 or 6 points.

All sensible ideas. I think that Labour would still be ahead in the polls though or at least have not fallen so far behind, they would still have a slight honeymoon even with ERM problems, it would be easy for Smith to cry foul over Tory economic policy leaping on to the Labour government.

The Tories meanwhile, are disappointed, but not crushed by the result. John Major has done his expected job of minimising Conservative losses, and he stands down as Party Leader in September, shortly after the pleasure of gloating as Leader of the Opposition over Black Tuesday. Thereafter, the contest for the soul of the Conservative Party can begin in earnest. The Tories remain ITTL as split as ever, and the leadership election eventually boils down to three choices; the Europhiles, led by Michael Heseltine, and supported by Kenneth Clarke, the moderates, led by Douglas Hurd and supported by Malcolm Rifkind, and the Eurosceptics, led by Norman Lamont and supported by John Redwood. In the end, Douglas Hurd is appointed Leader of the Conservative Party.

Hurd is the obvious compromise candidate, I can't help but think that I've seen him in a similar position in another timeline though...

;)

Labour begins 1993 by implementing a series of reforms in the general direction of BR, hoping to turn the railway system into a glowing example of what a nationalised industry can be. The railways are pledged an extra £43m in yearly cash, to fund a new High Speed network running from the Channel Tunnel to Manchester. The Prime Minister and the Home Secretary, Tony Blair, cut the first sod of the new route.

Woo! Trains! Trains! I think that this is one area that we can both agree upon BG.

:)

Elsewhere, Labour busily begins the process of extending regional assemblies. The new Scottish Parliament has its first elections in 1994, which are, unsurprisingly, won by the Labour Party. The Tories, SNP, and Liberals vie for the other seats, but as yet, there is no clear "opposition" to Scottish Labour.

It's clear to me that devolution would happen, however, I'm not sure that the Scottish Parliament would get the same powers it did in OTL and equally, Welsh devolution isn't a given seen as how narrowly the referendum passed in 1997.

In 1994, the Chancellor, John Smith, steps down, to be replaced by the ambitious Gordon Brown, who is rumoured to have differences with Kinnock. Immediately, the Brown Treasury begins to implement a number of "stealth taxes" which are seized upon by the Conservative Shadow Chancellor, Michael Portillo, as evidence of Labour's "greed". Following Smith's death, the Government begins to slide in the opinion polls. The BSE crisis leads to heads rolling, and Labour's exciting plans for revitalising Britain's heavy industry come to naught, thanks to a determination on the part of several Labour rebels to establish a more populist, right wing, party to take on the resurgent Tories. The Chief Whip, Peter Mandelson, walks out of Government in May 1996, intending to cause a coup against the Prime Minister, but this is in vain. Kinnock holds on to the position as Prime Minister until the 1997 general election, which the Conservatives comfortably win with a majority of 48. Douglas Hurd becomes PM. Britain is a very different place.

Well, I'm not too happy about the Brown-bashing, I really don't think that he would be the sort to go against Kinnock, the two have never been at each others throats like he was with Blair towards the end of 2006. Smith's heart attack was a shock, can't we see it butterflied away? It would be easy to let this happen.

I'm also not really sure that Mandelson would be the leader of the "populist" wing, he isn't really that bad with regards to loyalty and he isn't as far to the right as his critics claim.

I also can't really see Hurd as anything more than a caretaker leader, holding on for a bit until a more telegenic leader took over. However, we could say that about Kinnock really.

I think that you could have spent more time on the Tories over the EU, clearly, not being in government will help party unity but I still think that you're letting them get off lightly. The shadow of Maastricht will still loom large, and in government or not, it is still going to cause a major schism which will do nothing for the party at the polls. A divided opposition is a sure fire way for a party to say out of office, just look at Labour during the second Conservative term under Thatcher. Westland was a major scandal, but people still supported the Conservatives over a party that was fighting internal Trotskites. So long as the economy is doing well enough (which it will be, regardless of BSC etc.) then Labour should be alright at the polls.

Thoughts? This is an extremelly rough draft of a TL I may or may not come back to at some point. Still, ideas for what the Tories will do now, and much more fleshing out of Labour's actions in Government is desperately needed!

Aside those minor points it seems like a nice idea for a timeline, hopefully it won't die a death like my John Smith one did and should be a nice compliment to FtSoaS.

:)
 
Looks like I've got myself a post Isaac's Empire project then!

So, the Tories have won in 1997, with a decent and workable majority; but nothing like they had prior to the 1992 defeat. This is due to several factors; an economy that is doing fairly well (though not, I would suggest, as well as in OTL '97, it's taken some very heavy increases in public spending under the Labour Government, and taxes are higher. Nonetheless, growth is happening) has worked in favour of Labour, and the Tories have appeared divided over their European policy. Nonetheless, Douglas Hurd has appeared to be a decent, if fairly elderly, Leader of the Opposition. He becomes PM at the age of 67; few expect him to serve a full term in office.

Predictions are correct. Hurd spends his three years as PM largely enjoying himself. Some controversy is caused by the Prime Minister's pro Serbian line in the talks about the end of Yugoslavia over the course of his time in office, but few really pay much attention. Hurd has, like Major, united and stabilised the Conservative Party, and between them, they have sewn up most of the injuries of Thatcher's departure.

The attention of the media thus focuses on the next generation of Tories; chiefly the Chancellor Michael Portillo, the Home Secretary John Redwood, and the Environment Secretary, William Hague. When Hurd announces his intention to step down as Prime Minister at the end of 2000, in good time for a General Election, the three frontrunners immediately begin to stake out their position, with others, chiefly Ken Clarke, waiting in the wings.

Labour meanwhile is destitute to be back in Opposition. A long drawn out contest ensues between Gordon Brown and Tony Blair following Prime Minister Kinnock's resignation. Eventually, Blair emerges triumphant as Leader of the Opposition, but quickly becomes frustrated at the attempts of Brown's allies and other senior figures, notably the retired John Smith, to stall his planned reforms of the Labour Party. His attempts at a coalition with the Liberal Democrats come to naught, as do his attempts to force his party to adopt a less socialist line. In the end, Blair resigns in disgust in February 2000, and retires to the backbenches to contemplate his political future. Gordon Brown then rises to the top as Leader of the Opposition.

The Tory Government of 1997-2001 is generally regarded as one of the most calm of any post-war Government; it is today often compared to the height of the Macmillan era. Hurd had rejected the worst ravages of Thatcherism, but at the same time, steered far away from the dangers of abandoning the free market revolution. Generally, the Tories and the country were "having a good time"; as marked by Hurd's swansong, when he took the first high speed service from London to Birmingham to conference in October 2000.

The electoral competion at Conservative Party Conference is a short one, with Redwood and Hague eventually deciding to support Michael Portillo as Party Leader, as a "keep Clarke out" candidate. Portillo, comfortably ahead in the polls, immediately begins to leak to the press that he will go to the country early in the New Year, to secure a proper mandate to "get some work done!". He and Gordon Brown face off in May 2001.
 
....but quickly becomes frustrated at the attempts of Brown's allies and other senior figures, notably the retired John Smith, to stall his planned reforms of the Labour Party.

Nice update, very nice...particularly admired by myself as a life-long Tory voter.

However, didn't you have John Smith die roughly on OTL schedule in part 1?
 
Very plausible, though I think you are overestimating Clarke support. While some Tory grandee's and MP's elected in the 70's and 80's were Europhiles by 1990 almost all local associations are Eurosceptic. The reason the pro-EU wing of the Tory party has largely died out is that almost everyone elected since '87 has been a Eurosceptic. While the party will be less Eurosceptic without the cull of '97 Clarke doesn't have a hope. The post Hurd contest will be between Portillo, Hague and maybe Redwood.
 
Sorry BG - I'm going to be totally contradictory:

The Sun Factor is alleged to have delivered as much as an 8 point swing on election day in key constituencies so Labour could win way more than 12 seats if Rupert Murdoch has a sudden attack of the trots and can’t get up off his lavatory or something like that.

Unfortunately, I’m going back to the essay “What if John Major is made Chief Whip in 1989?” to form a basis of a response. This essay takes the form of an interview with Kinnock in the late 90s/early 00s and is a DBWI – he’s just read an essay that has Major as Foreign Secretary, then Chancellor, then PM and beats Kinnock in 92.

As I recall, the essay still has Blair in Employment reading out lists of how unemployment figures keep rising and rising, eventually resigning his seat out of frustration to head up the Independent Broadcasting Commission which is slightly off track from what BG wanted.

However, I would envisage things unfolding like this – Kinnock and Smith clash over economic policy and eventually Kinnock gets too frustrated with Smith’s bolshiness and sacks him, replacing him with Gordon Brown who is much more subdued in this TL and isn’t emboldened to build a power base for himself. Blair is Home Secretary and the media like him more than Kinnock but Kinnock is making all the right noises in regards of internal Labour policy so his position isn’t threatened by the young barrister.

Although Labour’s management of the economy is under question, at least blame can be part shifted to the Tories for agreeing to join the ERM in the first place and the Germans for not cutting interest rates. There is no double raising of interest rates on the same day and there is no Norman Lamont being misquoted as singing “je ne regrette rien” in the bath. The 90s Recession isn’t as bad, there are no Major-esque Citizen Charters to piss-off the civil service and things are generally smoother although unemployment is of concern. Maastrict Treaty is signed into law without hiccups although the Conservatives have massive internal rows with Teddy Taylor and Iain Duncan-Smith leading the rebels.

The USA and the UK continue to enjoy a close relationship – Major hasn’t helped Bush dig up dirt on Clinton whilst at Oxford University so there is no snub and Kinnock/Clinton enjoy a fruitful relationship – Clinton doesn’t make a speech about how the German/American relationships is the most important in Europe.

Tory divisions over Europe continue to haunt the party – Major resigns after defeat in 1992 and Clarke becomes Conservative Leader. As a pro-European, he’s often at odds with the Shadow Home Secretary Portillo and Shadow Chancellor Howard and relies increasingly more on Deputy Leader Heseltine more than his Chief Whip to keep the Rebels in line. The 1997 election campaign is somewhat lacklustre – economic recovery is in full swing and with more money in the Treasury coffers, the Labour Party can put forward a more exciting programme to embolden voters into voting Red.
 
A few points:
  • There is no way in hell that Douglas Hurd would have won any post-Thatcher leadership election. The man was an Etonian (this was lethal in those days) a pro-European, and an old Heathite who had served as Heath's private secretary. For 1992, that is the most diabolical triple combination you could get in any leadership candidate. He was a pragmatic Heathite, and adapted himself to the Thatcher years, but he was still widely distrusted. He was, in a way, to the left (or at least, he was percieved to be to the left, which is just as important) of Heseltine; Heseltine could always claim to be something of a post-1975 man, being self-made, thrusting, and successful - Hurd looked like he could have been something out of Macmillan's government. No chance. It would probably have either been Heseltine, or Howard. Probably Howard. Considering this is pre-Black Wednesday, don't rule out Lamont, though...
  • There is no assurance that BW would happen under Labour. Labour's plan was to push for a co-ordinated realignment of ERM currencies such as the Lira, the Pound etc, within the ERM. Lamont made a a bit of a twat of himself at the Bath Summit, and this possibility was lost in OTL. Smith would push for this, and, riding on an OTL-style warming of relations between Britain and Europe, it might just be pulled off. This happened in OTL after Black Wednesday, but the system became too loose and collapsed - could Smith pull off a loosening beforehand? Labour is still going to be in the economic shits whatever happens, however, and the Tories are going to have it easy in that respect. But Smith's line will be, if he fails to get the goods from Europe 'This is the recession we inherited, and the European policy we inherited'. Only months after the new government has come to power, people will generally give Labour the benefit of the doubt, or they will believe that what the Tories have said about Labour being unable to run the economy is entirely true. I am not sure which it would be.
  • You're seriously underestimating how impossible it is to govern with a majority of that standing. And what of Maastricht? Smith had it easy in OTL because Labour was in opposition, the focus was on the Tories, and he could hammer out compromises and deflect the anger of the party onto the Tories - Labour was, however, just as divided as the Tories. With a majority of twelve (which is no majority at all really) Kinnock is going to be in the shit. Devolution is going to be a bitch, as is anything else major.
  • What of Labour-Lib Dem relations? With the Liberals proping Labour up, there is going to be a lot of discontent within Labour over this, but a lot of murmuring from the Kinnockistas that Labour should draw itself further together with the LDs, along OTLs lines.
 
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Actually, no I'm wrong, I think it probably would have been Lamont-Heseltine, probably with Rifkind coming in strongly on third place if he gets combative enough (and assuming he keeps his seat) - Michael Howard has never been able to pick up much support in the party.

That would be a hoot, but between pro-European big beasts and a backbench mob who would be constantly arguing for the final facedown over Maastricht, and his own personality, I don't think he would last long.

Hurd was sixty-two by this point I might add, and in OTL he was making plans to wind down not gear-up - he resigned as foreign secretary in '95. Tbh, I am pretty sure he would have just retired after a '92 defeat: he's getting on in years, FSec was the only position he was really interested in, there's no easy position for him to hold in a shadow cabinet, he'll be ancient by the time of the next election. He'll stay as an MP to the end of the Parliament, taking an interest in the Balkans, but otherwise it's memoirs time.
 
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Thanks for the criticism, it's useful stuff for if/when I ever do have a proper crack at this timeline. Can I have some broad summaries of what I'm doing right and what I'm doing wrong, please? :) My only solid, defined aim is to have the Tories in power for the time of Tony Blair's OTL Premiership, and to explore the consequences on the world. President McCain would also be entertaining as a side story, but by no means compulsory.
 

Thande

Donor
Sounds good up to 1994, but then things seem to fall apart a bit too quickly. The Labour right dissatisfied with Kinnock would most probably join Ashdown's Lib Dems rather than trying to do SDP 2.0 in my opinion. I suspect 1997 would return a hung parliament and a Lib-Lab coalition: even with the economic crises, people wouldn't be willing to go back to the Tories yet.
 
My only solid, defined aim is to have the Tories in power for the time of Tony Blair's OTL Premiership, and to explore the consequences on the world.

Well...

I think you need to consider two things here for the 1992-1997 period: how do the Tories purge the inevitable disunity and internal strife which would afflict the party in that period come what may (Principally over Europe and, simply, the competing personalities) and go on to win in 1997, and how exactly does Labour screw up in government that they lose out in 1997. (I would suggest that it would be over the same things as the Tories - Europe and personality clashes. Smith and Kinnock's relationship was always poor, and a dysfunctional PM-Chancellor relationship is the great wrecker of governments throughout the ages) You've got the right idea here, but you need to explore it in a little more depth, and in particular, IMO, examine the extent to which Labour get chummy with the Lib Dems, and how much internal argument that generates ('New' Labour always loved the prospect of a close relationship with the Lib Dems as a means by which they could keep the left and the old right in check, the rest of the party was always horribly suspicious of Labour getting too close, for largely the same reasons, besides the old anti-SDP hostility)

One thing I forgot - Does Chris Patten keep Bath ITTL? If not, then there would be a strong movement for him to return to lead the left. OTL saw him quit the frontline in favour of acting as a behind-the-scenes counsellor/shoulder to cry on for Major. With a by-election of his choosing here (IOTL, the Tories didn't win a single by-election in the 1992-1997 period, or ever look like winning one) there would be an easy opening.

Patten would be a formidable personality if he got back in. He's not as brash and arrogant as Clarke, and had some of the cunning and nimbleness of Heseltine. He would be tarnished by a '92 defeat, (he was party chairman at the time) although not so much if it was a close one, and if he lost his seat, people would probably think that he'd payed the price for failure. He's also of the pro-European left, (he was one of Hurd's lieutenants in the 1990 contest) which would make it extremely difficult to see him as leader, but he would blow Clarke away on that score, and, I think, in the right circumstances, Heseltine too. He is, in '92, still extremely young. (48)
 
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Is it plausible that, with the Tory leadership in the hands of a Eurosceptic leader, the "rebels" led by Ken Clarke, who has been sacked from the Shadow Cabinet for whatever reason, could possibly peel off to join the Liberal Democrats? Same for members of the Labour Right (those that in OTL created New Labour), especially after a 1997 defeat.

And would it be plausible for John Major to gain a Cabinet position in the 1997 Conservative government, as Douglas-Home did in the 1970 one? I was toying with the idea of making Major Home Secretary, thus allowing him to hold every single one of the Great Offices of state. Major will still only be in his mid fifties by the time of the 1997 victory, but will the party allow a defeated former PM to be such a senior member of the Cabinet?

Regarding foreign affairs, what likely changes can we see, besides a different Yugoslav breakup? No Sierra Leone intervention by the Conservatives? A peacekeeping mission into Rwanda by Labour in the mid '90s? Keep the ideas coming, I'm noting them down!
 
Is it plausible that, with the Tory leadership in the hands of a Eurosceptic leader, the "rebels" led by Ken Clarke, who has been sacked from the Shadow Cabinet for whatever reason, could possibly peel off to join the Liberal Democrats? Same for members of the Labour Right (those that in OTL created New Labour), especially after a 1997 defeat.

I think that you may be being a bit hard towards Clark. Unlike a large number of the Labour right, Clark is a very loyal man within the Conservative Party. The Tories would have to make some pretty hardline moves against the EU for him to even consider defection. He is rather like Tony Benn in that respect, regardless of what you think of Tony, he would never go and do a Roy Jenkins.

And would it be plausible for John Major to gain a Cabinet position in the 1997 Conservative government, as Douglas-Home did in the 1970 one? I was toying with the idea of making Major Home Secretary, thus allowing him to hold every single one of the Great Offices of state. Major will still only be in his mid fifties by the time of the 1997 victory, but will the party allow a defeated former PM to be such a senior member of the Cabinet?

Perhaps not, Douglas-Home was always an exception to most conventions. Home Secretary is perhaps too much of stretch, but you see him in a sinecure position like Lord Privy Seal should his reputation for conciliation become more intense.

Regarding foreign affairs, what likely changes can we see, besides a different Yugoslav breakup? No Sierra Leone intervention by the Conservatives? A peacekeeping mission into Rwanda by Labour in the mid '90s? Keep the ideas coming, I'm noting them down!

Well, intervention in Rwanda would be a possibility, especially given its recent overtures towards joining the Commonwealth, however, you would need a very skilled Foreign Secretary to convince the UN towards intervention.

Perhaps someone like Paddy Ashdown?

;)
 

hammo1j

Donor
This would have been for the good of the country but ironically we could be hailing Gordon Brown as an economic hero right now rather than the numpty he is.

Just like in Australia we get a Conservative leader who follows sensible economic policies 1997 to 2005 and reduces debt to near zero. Then the social conscience comes to the fore and Brown's Labour party is elected.

In in OTL braindead President Bush and his chums have shafted the US, but over here Brown can apply a stimulus package, no problemo, because of the UK's fantastic fiscal position.

So the fickle voters vote Brown a hero and in 2009 he is re-elected with an increased majority. Even in ATL's there is no justice in the world!
 
Is it plausible that, with the Tory leadership in the hands of a Eurosceptic leader, the "rebels" led by Ken Clarke, who has been sacked from the Shadow Cabinet for whatever reason, could possibly peel off to join the Liberal Democrats? Same for members of the Labour Right (those that in OTL created New Labour), especially after a 1997 defeat.

In respect of Clarke: no.

In respect of Labour, I wouldn't say that it was plausible for them to defect at a stroke (The SDP permeates people's imaginations too much) but I think it's plausible to have them become increasingly chummy with the Lib Dems over time, to the extent that you get them more and more established as a single bloc. That sort of symbiotic relationship would be hard for the participants to break, and if it was, then it could leave them sort of on their arses in their respective parties. A bit like the L-G coalition.

but will the party allow a defeated former PM to be such a senior member of the Cabinet?

Well, that's the problem. The thing is, with Alec everyone knew he was finished and past his peak and all that. And he easily fitted into the FO role, which lends itself to an elder statesman.

There is no similar role that Major fits into easily. He was at heart a treasury minister, but there's no chance of him going back there because a former PM as Chancellor would just completely overshadow the PM on domestic policy. He hated being foreign secretary, was glad to move on from it, he wouldn't want to go back.

The absolute outside possiblity that I can see is Northern Ireland. Major takes an interest in it from the backbenches, maybe even gets himself the chair of the NI select committee (or acts as some kind of 'envoy'), he's eventually asked, in extremis, to come into the government. But that is a long shot.

Regarding foreign affairs, what likely changes can we see, besides a different Yugoslav breakup? No Sierra Leone intervention by the Conservatives? A peacekeeping mission into Rwanda by Labour in the mid '90s? Keep the ideas coming, I'm noting them down!

Probably very little actually. Foreign policy (outside of the European issue, natch) is generally quite a bi-partisan business.
 
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Sounds better than what happened. Labour governs in its traditional way and there is no new Labour. Rail privatization is strangled at birth. However after the moderate consensual John Major steps down, the right wing would probably take control and argue that Major wasn't Thatcherite enough so the reality would be less rosy than the scenario envisaged and they would be elected in 1997 after the financial crisis of 1992 on which Labour's fortunes would have foundered and there would be the usual financial crisis and increases in taxation
 
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