La Vallette loses Malta to Islam

What would have happened if Malta fell to the Muslims? The course I am taking claims it would have disrupted Christian shipping across the Mediterranean and things would have gone haywire.
 
Why loss, why not just Islamic Malta? still would be interesting, maybe in the future will align with the ottomans?
 
That's also a possibility. Just assume Malta becomes Islamic and hosts a Muslim equivalent of the Knights of St. John.
 
What happened to Rhodes? Or Cyprus?

That, really.

Also gives the Holy League yet another place to throw people and ships at in endless battles.
 
I would suggest the POD of the Ottomans seizing Malta in the 1560s, and subsequently holding on to it due to the decline of Spain in the 1600s (when it was called the Sick Man of Europe).
 
The siege of Malta (with hordes of Muslim soldiers against 600 Maltese knights) results in the fall of Malta before reinforcements arrive.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Siege_of_Malta

If the knights survive the siege... a pretty big if... then they're relocated. Spain may allow them to settle in Menorca to protect the Spanish Coast.

Malta becomes an Ottoman Base for raids on Italy and a base for Ottoman/Muslim Shipping. Possibly no kidnapping of Ibrahim I alleged son Sehzade Osman. If the butterflies allow Ibrahim to become Sultan. Depending on how strong the Ottoman Navy remains will also mean how long their rule on Malta will be. Also, some of the island population will be sold as slaves to North Africa.
 
If the knights survive the siege... a pretty big if... then they're relocated. Spain may allow them to settle in Menorca to protect the Spanish Coast.

Malta becomes an Ottoman Base for raids on Italy and a base for Ottoman/Muslim Shipping. Possibly no kidnapping of Ibrahim I alleged son Sehzade Osman. If the butterflies allow Ibrahim to become Sultan. Depending on how strong the Ottoman Navy remains will also mean how long their rule on Malta will be. Also, some of the island population will be sold as slaves to North Africa.

To be fair, there's a fair bit of pressure taken off the Ottoman navy strategically if they have eliminated the main jumping off point for Western European freebooter activity into the Eastern Med. There's not really a force in the East capable of really threatening them, and the Spainish will be wary about gambling with a deep strike like Lepanto if a lose there would mean a weak Med fleet in the face of now much freer Barbarby Pirate and a strong Ottoman navy. I think this very well could butterfly away Spainish participation in the Holy League,and without them I don't think the Italians can easily save the Venetian position. That would go a long way towards tighter ties between North Africa and the Ottoman core territories
 
To be fair, there's a fair bit of pressure taken off the Ottoman navy strategically if they have eliminated the main jumping off point for Western European freebooter activity into the Eastern Med. There's not really a force in the East capable of really threatening them, and the Spainish will be wary about gambling with a deep strike like Lepanto if a lose there would mean a weak Med fleet in the face of now much freer Barbarby Pirate and a strong Ottoman navy. I think this very well could butterfly away Spainish participation in the Holy League,and without them I don't think the Italians can easily save the Venetian position. That would go a long way towards tighter ties between North Africa and the Ottoman core territories

I don't know if it butterflies away Spanish participation in the Holy League. Spain had more religious regions to join, even without Malta being a Christian base. However, OTL Holy League is butterflied. No Italian power is willing to fight the Ottomans without strong Iberian backing. Venice will peace out sooner.

I do however think that Spain could start its own campaign, assuming the knights are in Menorca and settled long enough to have an own strong force again. If the Knights fall with Malta, Lala Kara Mustafa Pasha won't be kind to the Knights if we use his example in Cyprus against the Venetians. So the numbers of knights will be low and need new knights again. A future Spanish lead campaign may be in Algeria.
 
I don't know if it butterflies away Spanish participation in the Holy League. Spain had more religious regions to join, even without Malta being a Christian base. However, OTL Holy League is butterflied. No Italian power is willing to fight the Ottomans without strong Iberian backing. Venice will peace out sooner.

I do however think that Spain could start its own campaign, assuming the knights are in Menorca and settled long enough to have an own strong force again. If the Knights fall with Malta, Lala Kara Mustafa Pasha won't be kind to the Knights if we use his example in Cyprus against the Venetians. So the numbers of knights will be low and need new knights again. A future Spanish lead campaign may be in Algeria.

Perhaps I should have phrased that differently. I think the Spainish wouldn't be very keen to take the gamble of participating in a strike into the Eastern Med. in direct support of the Venetians, and might be liable to write the region off as a lost cause to focus on the Western Med. and Atlantic (Particularly since the Med. trade is rapidly declining in importance, following the hooking into the Portugese Trans-Cape network of the spice trade and their own New World wealth). An attack of Algiers may very well be in the cards, as a way to try to hedge the Ottomans out of projecting power further West (And crack down on Barbary piracy, since without the freebooters operating from Maltese ports they have freer reign). I suppose the biggest question is if such a campaign would be a success, as the Ottomans are certainly going to contest them. If they can defend the coast from direct Spainish attacks and its still under threat, while having safer smoother sea routes into the area, the temptation and capacity to better integrate the Regency into the Imperial structure for strategic reasons would be much greater than IOTL
 

corourke

Donor
The fall of Malta might make the entire Italian peninsula seem a lot more threatened. Venice is in an even worse position here.
 
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