Discussion in 'Alternate History Discussion: Before 1900' started by Franciscus Caesar, Aug 13, 2013.
Oh, you heartbreaker!
Oh yes, I agree with you on that; I don't think the Ottomans would try to pull a Great Britain on South-East Asia. However, I can see them getting involved (roped in) in some other ways. Imagine (not OTL) a sultanate - say Johore - wants some better cannons and sends messages across the Indian Ocean basin for help. The Venetians and the Ottomans can't lug their guns halfway across the world; too many consequences, but they can provide Johore with books and drawings as well as advice. The Indian Ocean is one giant telecommunications network, only in this timeline there are two new callers on the block, even if they are nothing but traders.
Don't worry. Take your time.
I'm sure that the Ottoman empire did help one of the south asian sultanates but only nominally. Whatever is the case Siam seems like a good commercial partner for Venice and a future protectorate in exchange for technology. You can work something out. Siam was one of the only nations IOTL (I could be very wrong in this) that accepted foreing trade and opened herself so easily.
Oman had a nicely shaped trade network, I don't think they would carve more land in Arabia, but... if offered some kind of deal, let's say 2/3 of Yemen they may catch it, and Venice will recieve Socotra as a naval base and some more(I don't know anything about the island apart from it's location so I cannot argue if it is worth it or not). Could the Andamans be a good option too?
Other thing that is easily possible is the republic purchasing back some of the islands they lost to the Ottomans or Montenegro. And Swahili looks nice for a colony even if it's a just a city: monopolic trade, the only ships that count in the trade of eastern africa (as in every other part of the world) are the most efficient. You just need a venetian town nearby to eliminate the local competition. As for Portugal... maybe later a colony in south africa is at the order of the day or in southern Madagascar.
Continuing with the trend a colony in america is not likely by any means, you will need a city at the gates of the mediterranean but that's simple. Purchase a strip of land form the Ottomans or Spain in exchange for some trade rights.
I don't think that the knights getting involved is a good idea, they sound as thay would cause more problems than solve them. Some religious fanatics going free around with swords in a multireligious territory that will not want you there, what could go wrong?... The only thing I see them doing is a very limited mercenary force for pretecting the pilgrims on their way to Jerusalem while the territory is pacified by the Ottomans.
Why would you need Rhodes when you have Cyprus?
*****Something I forgot to say in my past post: don't start the mediatization inmediatly, that can wait a century for the thirty years' war to start, get Venice involved for some cheap excuse and have a chance of invading the netherlands or stealing a city from the Hanseatic league. Farfetched, yes, very much so, but butterflies are flying...
Also, Da Vinci did desings for canals IOTL for river (I cannot remeber it's name now) to bypass Pisa and go through Florence, they were adapted and used in Milan, can they be adapted for the Po? It would looks really good for the river to go to Choggia instead of to the south. That would be a devastating blow to the other Italian cities: "Look at me, I can do whatever I want with the most important river in the peninsula and you can do nothing to stop me" And it also saves the trouble of crossing it during and invasion or defending it. Pushed away from the border makes it safer for a complente venetian monopoly of the traffic up and down the stream. Imagine the face of the lords of Ferrara when a Wargalleon bumps into their faces from the current!
The Àdexe is going in the wrong direction too, that means NOT to the lagoon.
The sediment will be a problem, however think about it as a solution when the city starts to grow outside of the lagoon. Artificial islands and terrains expansions were going on for centuries.
Cheap trips for Mecca and Medina bia red sea anyone? (Well, until the Ottomans control the city). I'm the only one thinking that the venetian future fleet in the red sea will open the gate for a complete turkish conquest of the peninsula?
I'm worried about the Ottomans having too much of an edge on the austrians. In a not so improbable future the Hapsburgs can fall into ruin. After all Austria WILL get gnowed down by the turks, the venetians and the prussians OTL and possible even more ITTL.
That is surprisingly simple. There are many, many, many small islands surrounding the sea. My shots go for Shadwan, Sanafir, Farasan, Dahlac, Jazirat al Hanish al Kabir and Birim all of them protecting bottlenecks, and the four lasts ones can form a impenetrable blockade from the south of the whole sea. Mukawwar while on the other shore, is close to Mecca. Xaafuun, in the Somalian coast, while not an island is a prefect natural port, you can build a fort and close the itsmus in defence.
They have another shared interest with the venetians in pushing Spain out of Morocco. An outpost for the republic, more "oppressed" muslims under the banner of the moons.
On ther topic, is Rijeka/Fiume under venetian hands?
Speaking of trade, the Mughal Empire under Akhbar the Great purchased a lot of firearms and artillery from the Ottomans to aid his conquest of India. Unfortunately at the same time the Portuguese were already establishing a foothold in Gujarat and were exerting control over the Indian Ocean. With a much more powerful Venice-Ottoman force on the seas in this timeline, things could turn out for the better for Akhbar, so long as the Venetians still got a foothold on the Malabar Coast (and mind their manners).
Good TL, waiting for the next updates. (I just remembered: the Battle of Marignano takes place in September of 1515. Does it still take place ITTL?)
Just thinking, does Martin Luther still post his 95 theses as OTL? The timeline is approaching 1517.
And, if the sack of Rome still takes place in 1527, Venice could become the big power in Italy.
I just realised this; if Venice and the Ottomans get themselves involved in the Indian Ocean, would this give more impetus by other powers to colonise the Americas?
I can see some rising power wanting to head west with it's ships to find another Asian route, only to bump with the Americas instead and deciding "eh, why not. Let's set up a trading post here!"
Also, if Spain (or some other power) finds out that the Pacific and the Atlantic are disconnected by a tiny strip of land in Central America, would they try to embark on a Ptolemaic Channel-like project? Have fun with malaria, suckers!
They would probably bring it to the peninsula and goodbye status as great power and welcome another black death! ...or not. Certainly they won't follow OTL plan as they can't deal with gates for different levels of water, therefore they're doomed. Nicaragua looks more promising but the spanish won't see it that way.
From what I've found on the internet, southern Spain was a malaria hotbed with its warm climate and prevalence of stagnant water. However, South American Malaria - though deadly - is not as bad as African Malaria which kills just about everything it touches.
Now, maybe in this timeline an African slave ship heading to the Americas (or Europe) harbors the disease through some miraculous way and starts infecting populations there. However, the only vector for the disease is mosquitoes and nothing else. How will they find fresh water to breed long enough while on the seas? In freshwater barrels? In the cargo hold?
If something can provide the mosquitoes with a place to breed while on a ship, then African Malaria is as good as secured. Once it arrives at it's destination -and with help from it's South American cousin - goodbye healthy population!
And agreed with Nicaragua. A canal/connected river system is more feasible than cutting through hills and mountains.
It's been a week already...
I know, I'm sorry! The week didn't go as well as I would have hoped and kept me away from AH. Real life, as I say, is AH's enemy. Nevertheless, Happy Thanksgiving to my fellow Canadians on the forum, and I will upload the next part shortly!
Before I start addressing some of the comments, just know that while I enjoy reading the hypothesizing on the future direction of this TL, I won't address things that happen far into the future or that will reveal too much (some things you guys have proposed are spot on, others not so much. I assume many have glanced at the old TL). If there's something that you're incredibly curious about and really would like an answer, kindly PM me. I'm just trying to keep the integrity of the TL in tact by not giving away too much. Thanks!
This was a topic hotly debated in the old TL, and after researching it quite extensively I ultimately decided that Venice will not pursue a colony in the Americas. That being said, as I've stated Venice ITTL will pursue lands that make economic sense. Therefore, with the butterflies flying we'll see how everything plays out. But at least for the next hundred years or so I don't see this happening.
I'm still looking into the Knights, but as you've said the first impression is that they'd certainly stir the pot.
Yup, he was trying to deflect the Arno. This was the inspiration behind da Vinci being the designer of TTL's Ptolmeic Channel. You're idea is very cool, it would certainly be a massive blow to the other Italian states, but certainly they wouldn't just sit back and let this happen. Ferrara is France's BFFL, they'd almost definitely call for their help to subdue Venice if it were to take on such a project. While this may resurface later, at the moment the republic is quite low on funds. I don't see it being back up to shape until after the Channel starts delivering profits (if ever...).
The Arab peninsula? How would the Venetian fleet there encourage that?
At the moment the Ottoman Empire isn't looking too different than OTL's version. Unless something changes, the Empire will just be higher on funds when it attacks Austria (IF it attacks Austria and IF the Ptolmeic is generating profit by then).
Yes it is, the Empire ceded it over with the rest of Istria after the peace it made with Venice in 1508
Thanks. Yes it (Marignano) does, though slightly different. I don't see a reason Luther won't post his thesis unless the Papacy does something radically different in the next 2 years, which isn't completely out of the question. ITTL's Papacy is considerably weaker, having lost many of the wars it won OTL. It does NOT control Romagna, a huge blow, and we are yet to see how its invasion of Mantua ends (though that will be revealed in the next part). With early calls to reform (possibly taking Erasmus' words to heart before the posting of the Thesis) maybe this weekend Papacy will head the warning.
Ah, you'll have to wait until after the 1520s to have more insight into this one. It and events surrounding it are main source of butterflies (IMO) for the next few decades.
Never thought of it! But in the early or even late 1500's I doubt we will see such an attempt. The reason the Ptolmeic Channel works is thanks to the short distance from the building site and Crimea for the importing of slaves, as well as the ever watchful eye of the Venetians and the Mamluks/Ottomans, the latter 2 of which are capable of assembling massive amounts of quality local man power (as seen with the Ottoman force of 15,000 craftsmen in Greece against the Venetians). And yes, as you and Fox-Fire aptly described, it would be a dire project for Spain to try their hand at.
Part 18, The Lion and the Pearl
June: Word spreads of the formal alliance between Venice and the Ottoman Empire and quickly causes a great scandal in the Christian world, the Pope declaring it “the impious alliance”. Regent Ferdinand II of Spain strongly appeals to the rest of Europe against the alliance, calling it “the sacrilegious union of the Lion and the Crescent” (i). Meanwhile, Venetian ambassadors across Europe do their part in portraying the capture of Alexandria from Muslim hands as a successful crusade, and that those who renounce it are the ones committing sacrilege instead.
In Venice itself, the conquest of St. Mark’s city is cause for grand celebration, and reinforces the nation, affirming to its populace that under the protection of their revered Saint there men in battle are safe against those who oppose them. Out of all the Italian city states, Venice has always been the one with the most distinct national identity, and this event only increases the nationhood of the Serene Republic.
In Egypt, the Mamluks are torn by a war with Venice and the Ottomans. With each attacking from different sides of the country, Egypt’s leaders are tasked with difficult decisions regarding the defense of the Sultanate. Although Venice has captured Alexandria, it seems unwilling to continue its advance into Egyptian territory, sufficing instead to raid the immediate area around the city. Other than local small makeshift peasant and Arab militias, the Mamluk’s main fighting force is located far away in the east awaiting the huge Ottoman deployment heading their way.
They decide that the Ottomans as their primary threat will be dealt with first, and that the Venetians in Alexandria will be spared –for now- a Mamluk onslaught on land. Instead, as much as they detest it, the Mamluk navy will attempt to remove the Christian invaders from Egyptian shores.
June 29: An Egyptian fleet meets the Venetian navy just off the coast at Aboukir Bay. The Mamluks have little inclination for naval operations, as was demonstrated so clearly in their last war against the Portuguese.
The navy and everything connected to it is despised by the land-minded Mamluk horsemen. Their inexperience is obvious, and the battle is quick with the Egyptians quickly withdrawing. This meager battle is much to the dismay of Maranazzo, who brought with him a small contingent of 4 Venetian carracks that did not get the chance to engage the enemy today. He was hoping that an active battle involving them would showcase any further shortfalls that could then be improved on back home in Venice.
July 14: The Ottomans claim a decisive victory over the Mamluks at Marj Dabiq, just north of Halab (ii). The Ottomans outnumber the Egyptians 3 to 1, and Mamluk casualties after the battle are estimated to be 90%, or nearly 72,000 men lost. Though these numbers are thought to be highly embellished in favour of the Porte, this single battle is still crushing enough to secure Syria under Selim’s rule.
Late July: Having assumed the title Duke of Milan at his coronation, Francis immediately moves to reclaim his holdings in Italy. He assembles his army in the Dauphine and marches on the peninsula.
Early September: The French vanguard surprises the Milanese at Villafranca, and captures the feared Papal commander Prospero Colonna. They also make off with a large booty, including 600 horses.
September 10: Selim and his army enter into Damascus, its inhabitants readily tender their submission to the conquering Turks.
September 13: The main French force confronts the Swiss at Marignano. The Swiss make rapid gains against the French and as night dawns both sides stop fighting to reorganize.
September 14: Venetian forces under the command of Bartolomeo d’Alviano meet up with the French at Marignano by mid-morning the next day. This turns the tides against the Swiss who, now heavily outnumbered and outgunned, have their attacks utterly repulsed. Their ranks are thrown into bloody shambles, and the battle ends with a crushing defeat for the Swiss at the hands of the French, thanks to their Venetian allies (iii).
October 4: Francis of France advances on Milan and captures the city, removing Sforza from the thrown. The culmination of this and primarily the terrible defeat at Marignano puts the Holy League in a position where it no longer possesses the ability or the will to continue the war.
Late October: Venetian leadership under Marco Maranazzo in Alexandria starts to ease its military grip on Alexandria, opting for more diplomatic ways at quelling the anger. He meets with varying major factions of the city and does what he can to ensure each side is taken care of.
To the Copts, the Venetians play the part of fellow Christians and liberators from the rulers who destroyed the Coptic language, and converted Egypt, once a bastion of Christianity, to the religion of the heathen. They promise a freedom for the Copts that would never have been allowed under Mamluk rule, including an much welcomed immediate end to the higher taxes paid by Copts over Muslims.
To the Muslims, the Venetians promise that they will share equal rights in the republic and its lands as those given to the Ottomans, and use their alliance with the major Islamic power to prove their amicability.
Regardless to these appeasements made to each side, nothing seems to quite ease the minds of the citizens. Making little headway, the Venetians opt to appeal to the universal language of commerce, which they speak so well. They promise that Alexandria will be rightfully reunited with the sea, and achieve the greatness that she once held, which she was robbed of by the Mamluks. After all, they were the ones who ended the city’s tenure as capital of Egypt, and left it to decay into the current shell of the once great city it used to be. Further, they vow that with Alexandria as the center of Ptolmeic Channel operations, much needed money will flow into the city, and it will transform into a metropolis as prosperous as Venice herself.
While the populace, specifically the Muslims, is weary of such grand assurances; the city has been put on the backburner for centuries under Mamluk rule and felt the effects of its depleted coffers profoundly. Trade is at an all-time low, and some start to consider that maybe inclusion into what they view as the ‘great’ Venetian trading circle at what seems to be little to no cost on any freedoms they enjoyed prior to the new rule, may be a good thing.
(i): These are inspired by the Franco-Ottoman alliance of OTL.
(ii): Modern day Aleppo, Syria.
(iii): This went just as in OTL, except Swiss losses are even greater thanks to the Venetians being far better prepared TTL.
Nice update other than what exactly happened at Marj Dabiq? Another Cannae? The casualties and the size of the Ottoman army seem to be unrealistically high.
I do like where the self-identity and success of the Venetian State is going.
With the events that transpired at Marj Dabiq I went off the numbers provided by Wikipedia. If they're off let me know.
Thanks! Yes, the Venetian identity becoming more important in the republic is essential. The success -at least militarily- is a plus.
Probably a throw-away Wikipedia statistic. It's not even referenced. It seems that there were so many betrayals and defections that the actual casualties would of had to have been lower, or there would have been nobody left to defect. I suspect that the Ottomans embellished the record for the greater glory of the Porte. You could even cite ridiculously high numbers in your TL as being Ottoman claims. That would be very much in the spirit of the times.
It has been done. Thanks!
Nice update! and happy Thanksgiving!
Looks like Alexandria has a chance to shine again. I wonder how will Mamluk Cairo take this news, even if it's days as capital are now numbered either way.
EDIT: Also, Martin Luther's Reformation. I wonder what shall happen now that Venice is more powerful and has more butterflies than OTL.
Pray tell, are the Swiss forces still divided as ever?
Also yay! More of the TL
To please our Kaiser of Toronto, Turkeys shall be sacrificed across the land today and I shall be overseeing the ceremony personally.
Excellent. Has the issue of the Latin Patriarch of Alexandria been brought up yet, or is that being left alone for the time being? It appears that the position was either vacant or held by someone unknown to history at the time. Perhaps the Patriarch of Venice may assume the title himself as a way of indicating that the Catholics of Alexandria and Egypt are properly beneficed to and spiritually protected, while still being unobtrusive enough on the ground that it isn't a threat to the Copts.
I wonder if Damietta may join Alexandria in this Venetian trading network, or whether it'll be the main Ottoman port of trade for the Red Sea and beyond.
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