L’Aigle Triomphant: A Napoleonic Victory TL

The Winter Maneuvers

"...what I would give to show our friends in Russia that we mean them no ill-will, no offense, and only courtesy..."

- Eugene de Beauharnais


The German war scare only intensified into the winter of 1813 - suggesting a probable Fifth Coalition being formed to challenge French supremacy in Germany by the following spring by, at the least, Austria, Britain and Prussia with the possibility of some of the Confederation's statelets throwing their lot in with them. With the armies of Italy, Spain and the Netherlands, in addition to most of Germany and the experienced French armies, Napoleon felt good about his odds in such a conflict; he would quite possibly have his most robust advantages in any coalition yet, even with the army reforms pursued by Vienna since Austerlitz. This, of course, was provided that Russia was not led into war by the nose by her Prussian ally, and a number of French statesmen winced at the thought of Napoleon continuing the fickle and fragile dance of diplomacy to keep Tsar Alexander out.

Eugene de Beauharnais met with Alexander's envoys personally at Regensburg in late November as rumors spread that von Dalberg would retire entirely on his 70th birthday - the following February. Eugene assured Alexander's men as well as the Duke of Oldenburg that as prince-primate he would suborn no royal or ducal rights in any kingdom and that his sole goal was to pursue a uniform foreign policy for the Confederation to keep peace in central Europe. The Russians, of course, were skeptical; but the "Regensburg Reassurances" seemed to have done their job in convincing them that under the soon-to-be "Prince Eugen," a more fully-federated Germany was not a risk. The ongoing diplomatic antics of Joachim Murat in Berg further satisfied Russian worries of a future unified, singular Germany being a creature of Paris; Napoleon, after all, could not even get his brother and brother-in-law to cooperate, so why would they listen to his adopted son?

Prussia and Austria, meanwhile, had their own work to do, planning a joint offensive into Saxony and Warsaw to start off the coming war while Austria, with British support, launched an attack into the Kingdom of Italy. Contrary to prior conflicts, both states agreed - contra British intentions - to keep their war aims limited. The goal of this Fifth Coalition would be to dissolve the Confederation as a buffer state and undo some of the imposed territorial humiliations of the previous wars; beyond that, both Austria and Prussia accepted that there could be no dislodging of Napoleon at all, but with the tide of revolutionary governments seeming to have mostly receded (Napoleon's firm Spanish ally was perhaps one of the most conservative regimes on the continent) the ideological underpinnings of the Coalitions had waned. Only Britain still really aimed for a Bourbon Restoration in France, and they had their hands more than occupied with their Spanish-American ulcer.

Napoleon mobilized 100,000 of his soldiers after Christmas and began maneuvering them to winter camps on the Rhine so that he could launch an offensive as soon as spring began and catch his enemies off guard; in a meeting with South German kings and their generals in Stuttgart in early January, he described his strategy as having their soldiers put pressure on Austria via Salzburg, while he routed his soldiers straight through the Fulda Gap on a lightning march into Saxony, which was already steeling itself for the spring war, to crush the Prussian and Austrian forces separately before they could link up. A joint Dutch-Westphalian force, meanwhile, would attack Mecklenburg and into northern Prussia to open up another theater. It was a gamble, and a risky one, but Ney and Massena were mobilizing reserve armies behind him as they spoke, as well as a Spanish force preparing itself. The advantage clearly belonged with the French - but again, the fate of the continent depended on how satisfied Russia was with their Baltic League and whether they would join this proposed "Holy Alliance" of conservatism, which they had resisted in previous coalitions.

The Prussians and Austrians had their own troubles to worry about as the new years arrived; late in the winter, a typhus epidemic emerged and struck the East of Europe hard. Thousands of men who would have served in the armies of the Fifth Coalition perished; thousands more in neutral Russia, particularly St. Petersburg, which was hit perhaps the hardest. Nobleman and serf died alike, including perhaps the most important of all - Tsar Alexander I, perishing after weeks bedridden, on January 30, 1814... [1]


[1] Credit to @alexmilman for this idea!
You are very good in keeping the suspense! 🤗

So, if I understand you correctly, the Allies are not looking for the Italian theater or just consider it a remote second with a minimal allocation of the Austrian troops. But Nappy does not have to cooperate with them and in Italy he has Bernadotte who is much better in raising the armies than Ney and Massena (BTW, I’m not sure why did you assigned them a role to which they were demonstrably ill-suited: none of them demonstrated any administrative capacities but both had been very good subordinated field commanders and, unlike OTL circa 1813 Nappy, has suitable figures, like Soult and Jourdan in his disposal ; well, it is your war to win 😂).

Anyway, thanks for getting rid of AI but didn’t I propose a cholera (simply don’t remember): at his accession he promised to rule as his grandmother (aka, very badly) so it would be symbolic for him to die the same way, aka in a restroom. ☠️

This leaves Russia with Constantine I who does not like a war in general (*), is scared of Napoleon (was one of the main advocates for making peace with hm) and with a high probability is going to turn Russia into such a 3 ring circus that nobody is going to pay attention to what is going abroad. His father’s march on India may start looking as an example of an extreme sanity and rationality. I’m not saying that he is going to repeat it, just that his antics were unpredictable except for one area: the insane drill of post-1814 Alexander’s reign (“acrobatics” as Paskevich described it) would look like a kindergarten play in a sandbox (**). Which, taking into an account the family history, may result in an (un)timely death from some of the Russian deadly diseases (hemorrhoids and stroke were already tried so how about a fit of sneezing or a sore throat? ).

Of course, there is also a distinct possibility of him going to war …. with Austria (let Russia down at Austerlitz) and Prussia (their war with Napoleon implies disloyalty to the Baltic League or if this us not enough, just because). He was not fully averse to a military glory and in Suvorov’s Italian/Swiss campaign was performing reasonably well. Hitting Napoleon’s enemies in a back seems to be a low risk glorious war.

________
(*) It distracts soldier from a parade ground exercises.
(**) IIRC, Lev Tolstoy wrote that the Guards (whom Constantine commanded) marched in a paradeground step all the way from Russia to Austerlitz.
 

Deleted member 143920

The Winter Maneuvers

"...what I would give to show our friends in Russia that we mean them no ill-will, no offense, and only courtesy..."

- Eugene de Beauharnais


The German war scare only intensified into the winter of 1813 - suggesting a probable Fifth Coalition being formed to challenge French supremacy in Germany by the following spring by, at the least, Austria, Britain and Prussia with the possibility of some of the Confederation's statelets throwing their lot in with them. With the armies of Italy, Spain and the Netherlands, in addition to most of Germany and the experienced French armies, Napoleon felt good about his odds in such a conflict; he would quite possibly have his most robust advantages in any coalition yet, even with the army reforms pursued by Vienna since Austerlitz. This, of course, was provided that Russia was not led into war by the nose by her Prussian ally, and a number of French statesmen winced at the thought of Napoleon continuing the fickle and fragile dance of diplomacy to keep Tsar Alexander out.

Eugene de Beauharnais met with Alexander's envoys personally at Regensburg in late November as rumors spread that von Dalberg would retire entirely on his 70th birthday - the following February. Eugene assured Alexander's men as well as the Duke of Oldenburg that as prince-primate he would suborn no royal or ducal rights in any kingdom and that his sole goal was to pursue a uniform foreign policy for the Confederation to keep peace in central Europe. The Russians, of course, were skeptical; but the "Regensburg Reassurances" seemed to have done their job in convincing them that under the soon-to-be "Prince Eugen," a more fully-federated Germany was not a risk. The ongoing diplomatic antics of Joachim Murat in Berg further satisfied Russian worries of a future unified, singular Germany being a creature of Paris; Napoleon, after all, could not even get his brother and brother-in-law to cooperate, so why would they listen to his adopted son?

Prussia and Austria, meanwhile, had their own work to do, planning a joint offensive into Saxony and Warsaw to start off the coming war while Austria, with British support, launched an attack into the Kingdom of Italy. Contrary to prior conflicts, both states agreed - contra British intentions - to keep their war aims limited. The goal of this Fifth Coalition would be to dissolve the Confederation as a buffer state and undo some of the imposed territorial humiliations of the previous wars; beyond that, both Austria and Prussia accepted that there could be no dislodging of Napoleon at all, but with the tide of revolutionary governments seeming to have mostly receded (Napoleon's firm Spanish ally was perhaps one of the most conservative regimes on the continent) the ideological underpinnings of the Coalitions had waned. Only Britain still really aimed for a Bourbon Restoration in France, and they had their hands more than occupied with their Spanish-American ulcer.

Napoleon mobilized 100,000 of his soldiers after Christmas and began maneuvering them to winter camps on the Rhine so that he could launch an offensive as soon as spring began and catch his enemies off guard; in a meeting with South German kings and their generals in Stuttgart in early January, he described his strategy as having their soldiers put pressure on Austria via Salzburg, while he routed his soldiers straight through the Fulda Gap on a lightning march into Saxony, which was already steeling itself for the spring war, to crush the Prussian and Austrian forces separately before they could link up. A joint Dutch-Westphalian force, meanwhile, would attack Mecklenburg and into northern Prussia to open up another theater. It was a gamble, and a risky one, but Ney and Massena were mobilizing reserve armies behind him as they spoke, as well as a Spanish force preparing itself. The advantage clearly belonged with the French - but again, the fate of the continent depended on how satisfied Russia was with their Baltic League and whether they would join this proposed "Holy Alliance" of conservatism, which they had resisted in previous coalitions.

The Prussians and Austrians had their own troubles to worry about as the new years arrived; late in the winter, a typhus epidemic emerged and struck the East of Europe hard. Thousands of men who would have served in the armies of the Fifth Coalition perished; thousands more in neutral Russia, particularly St. Petersburg, which was hit perhaps the hardest. Nobleman and serf died alike, including perhaps the most important of all - Tsar Alexander I, perishing after weeks bedridden, on January 30, 1814... [1]


[1] Credit to @alexmilman for this idea!

Excellent update! Knowing that France is (likely) going to win this war, I wonder what punishment Prussia and Austria would receive.
 
Just keep Prussia out of the Rhineland come hell or high water. Let them focus east towards Russia and south towards Austria instead.
The plan, insofar as I have one, is that Westphalia will largely replace Prussia as the dominant power in “Germany,” especially once the Ruhr industrializes
 
You are very good in keeping the suspense! 🤗

So, if I understand you correctly, the Allies are not looking for the Italian theater or just consider it a remote second with a minimal allocation of the Austrian troops. But Nappy does not have to cooperate with them and in Italy he has Bernadotte who is much better in raising the armies than Ney and Massena (BTW, I’m not sure why did you assigned them a role to which they were demonstrably ill-suited: none of them demonstrated any administrative capacities but both had been very good subordinated field commanders and, unlike OTL circa 1813 Nappy, has suitable figures, like Soult and Jourdan in his disposal ; well, it is your war to win 😂).

Anyway, thanks for getting rid of AI but didn’t I propose a cholera (simply don’t remember): at his accession he promised to rule as his grandmother (aka, very badly) so it would be symbolic for him to die the same way, aka in a restroom. ☠️

This leaves Russia with Constantine I who does not like a war in general (*), is scared of Napoleon (was one of the main advocates for making peace with hm) and with a high probability is going to turn Russia into such a 3 ring circus that nobody is going to pay attention to what is going abroad. His father’s march on India may start looking as an example of an extreme sanity and rationality. I’m not saying that he is going to repeat it, just that his antics were unpredictable except for one area: the insane drill of post-1814 Alexander’s reign (“acrobatics” as Paskevich described it) would look like a kindergarten play in a sandbox (**). Which, taking into an account the family history, may result in an (un)timely death from some of the Russian deadly diseases (hemorrhoids and stroke were already tried so how about a fit of sneezing or a sore throat? ).

Of course, there is also a distinct possibility of him going to war …. with Austria (let Russia down at Austerlitz) and Prussia (their war with Napoleon implies disloyalty to the Baltic League or if this us not enough, just because). He was not fully averse to a military glory and in Suvorov’s Italian/Swiss campaign was performing reasonably well. Hitting Napoleon’s enemies in a back seems to be a low risk glorious war.

________
(*) It distracts soldier from a parade ground exercises.
(**) IIRC, Lev Tolstoy wrote that the Guards (whom Constantine commanded) marched in a paradeground step all the way from Russia to Austerlitz.
Haha thank you!

It may have been cholera; I forget. I may have mixed that up with all the royals felled by typhus throughout the 19th century
 
Oh damm, a monkey wrench into the diplomatic front! Depending on who the new tsar is, Napoleon will either have many reasons to worry or getting some relief.
There are no options for “who the new tsar is”: it is Constantine. Legal and uncontested. And at that time in OTL Constantine was openly pro-Napoleonic or at least against the war with him. The only question is how (in)active Constantine decides to be in the coming conflict. Would he remain neutral or decide to side with Napoleon.

While he definitely was prone to the fits of insanity and not always acted rationally in between, the choice seems clear. Successful Austro/Prussian/British alliance means the end of the Baltic League from which Russia benefitted both politically and economically so joining the alliance gives Russia nothing but trouble: victorious Prussia backed up by two other allies is not going to take easily Russian dominance on the Baltics. And, while acquisition of the East Prussia may or may not look attractive to St. Petersburg, the Austrian Galicia (West Bank Ukraine) or at least Eastern part of it with Lwov surely would provide a good PR enthusiastically backed up by Karamzin. Great material for one of Derzhavin’s odes as well and Zhukovsky would definitely contribute with a suitable poem. Distribution of some “free” lands in Galicia, as well as the military glory may improve popularity among the officers (at least those who can access his person with whatever intentions).

After the series of Alexander’s defeats not quite compensated by acquisition of Finland, Russia finally achieves a real “glory” (Russian troops in Berlin would bring a glorious memory of the 7YW) and for a while “the little eccentricities” of Constantine’s character can be overlooked (with the parallels to personality of Peter the Great). If he does everybody a favor of dying few years later from a natural cause, he can end up in the Russian history as “Constantine the Blessed” or something of the kind (probably not “Great” unless he manages to led Russia into a complete havoc like two other “Great” rulers did). 😜
 
There are no options for “who the new tsar is”: it is Constantine. Legal and uncontested. And at that time in OTL Constantine was openly pro-Napoleonic or at least against the war with him. The only question is how (in)active Constantine decides to be in the coming conflict. Would he remain neutral or decide to side with Napoleon.

While he definitely was prone to the fits of insanity and not always acted rationally in between, the choice seems clear. Successful Austro/Prussian/British alliance means the end of the Baltic League from which Russia benefitted both politically and economically so joining the alliance gives Russia nothing but trouble: victorious Prussia backed up by two other allies is not going to take easily Russian dominance on the Baltics. And, while acquisition of the East Prussia may or may not look attractive to St. Petersburg, the Austrian Galicia (West Bank Ukraine) or at least Eastern part of it with Lwov surely would provide a good PR enthusiastically backed up by Karamzin. Great material for one of Derzhavin’s odes as well and Zhukovsky would definitely contribute with a suitable poem. Distribution of some “free” lands in Galicia, as well as the military glory may improve popularity among the officers (at least those who can access his person with whatever intentions).

After the series of Alexander’s defeats not quite compensated by acquisition of Finland, Russia finally achieves a real “glory” (Russian troops in Berlin would bring a glorious memory of the 7YW) and for a while “the little eccentricities” of Constantine’s character can be overlooked (with the parallels to personality of Peter the Great). If he does everybody a favor of dying few years later from a natural cause, he can end up in the Russian history as “Constantine the Blessed” or something of the kind (probably not “Great” unless he manages to led Russia into a complete havoc like two other “Great” rulers did). 😜
Russia certainly is not poor with options on how to navigate whatever comes next - all I’ll say is that it’s primary priority is to maintain its Baltic League, which Napoleon is obviously in favor of.
 
Russia certainly is not poor with options on how to navigate whatever comes next - all I’ll say is that it’s primary priority is to maintain its Baltic League, which Napoleon is obviously in favor of.
Indeed. But some options are more equal than others and a possibility to get something tangible with a minimal risk and effort should be quite tempting. After all, “joining Napoleon” does not mean joining the war when it starts: the time is needed for bringing the troops to the border (to secure it, just in case) and then you are getting into the fight after Nappy convincingly kicked the s—t out of at least one of the opponents but before the 5th coalition capitulates. If an excuse is needed (why would anybody bother?), an Austrian or Prussian border guard spitting in a general direction of the Russian territory surely is a gross offense to the Russian national dignity. Imagine a scene (immortalized by the court historians). Constantine enters the hall filled with the officers of the Guards, strikes a heroic posture and utters a historic announcement : “Officers, the Austrians spit on Russia! Saddle your horses!” (*)
1635184178612.png


______
(*) A shameless plagiarism from the official version of NI’s announcement of the Hungarian Uprising (it seems that he was mumbling something incoherent after being surprised by the news). The painting is actually NI announcing uprising in Poland in 1830 but who cares about the boring details and nitpicking.

😂
 
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Thanks! Constantine is next in line, I should point out
And, it is rarely mentioned, but Nicholas I and his reign had been to a great degree a byproduct of Alexander and his reign:
1. Alexander was responsible for appointing as his educators the people absolutely and openly unsuitable for the task starting from the main tutor, general Graf Lambsdorff, who was just regularly (literally) beating his head on a wall.
2. Starting from 1815, Alexander started enforcing an extreme drill in the Russian army firing the experienced officers and replacing them with the “exercise masters” and this happened during Nicholas’ formative years when he served as a brigade commander.
3. During the last years of his reign Alexander practically gave up on the state business with a resulting disorder and corruption prevailing pretty much in all areas of the civic and military administration. How this laxness was going in army hand to hand with the extreme drill I have no idea.

So Nicholas inherited the country which was pretty much falling apart and tried to fix the things based upon his education and experience.
Of course, Nicholas was not a brilliant statesman (or brilliant anything) so he, just as his father, attempted to reinstall the order but, knowing his father’s experience, he came with a seemingly better solution of restoring an order through a …er… “proper process”. And the most logical tool for this, within a framework of absolutism, was bureaucracy supplied with the proper instructions and following the laws. So he started (the 1st Tsar who did this) with a massive task of codification of all Russian laws (multi-volume set of the Laws of the Russian Empire used by the following generations) and then proceeded with expanding and empowering the bureaucracy with a resulting “reign of he heads of departments”: the historic nobility had been replaced in the state apparatus with the professional bureaucrats, often of a humble origin who, unlike the top level appointees, knew the “process” and could turn it any way they wanted . Similarly, in the army implementation of the regulations and instructions became the only way of life. Needless to say that the results had been opposite to the intended. Not that Nicholas did not see a problem but he did not see an alternative within absolutist ideology which he was considered as a “must”.

Probably it is reasonable to expect that after Constantine’s reign Nicholas was going to inherit even a greater mess while his upbringing would be pretty much the same. So perhaps an earlier death of Constantine (can you use cholera at least on him, pleeease? After all it is as in OTL 😉) may allow at least some chance for Nicholas to start his reign before his personality was settled in all bad ways?
 
And, it is rarely mentioned, but Nicholas I and his reign had been to a great degree a byproduct of Alexander and his reign:
1. Alexander was responsible for appointing as his educators the people absolutely and openly unsuitable for the task starting from the main tutor, general Graf Lambsdorff, who was just regularly (literally) beating his head on a wall.
2. Starting from 1815, Alexander started enforcing an extreme drill in the Russian army firing the experienced officers and replacing them with the “exercise masters” and this happened during Nicholas’ formative years when he served as a brigade commander.
3. During the last years of his reign Alexander practically gave up on the state business with a resulting disorder and corruption prevailing pretty much in all areas of the civic and military administration. How this laxness was going in army hand to hand with the extreme drill I have no idea.

So Nicholas inherited the country which was pretty much falling apart and tried to fix the things based upon his education and experience.
Of course, Nicholas was not a brilliant statesman (or brilliant anything) so he, just as his father, attempted to reinstall the order but, knowing his father’s experience, he came with a seemingly better solution of restoring an order through a …er… “proper process”. And the most logical tool for this, within a framework of absolutism, was bureaucracy supplied with the proper instructions and following the laws. So he started (the 1st Tsar who did this) with a massive task of codification of all Russian laws (multi-volume set of the Laws of the Russian Empire used by the following generations) and then proceeded with expanding and empowering the bureaucracy with a resulting “reign of he heads of departments”: the historic nobility had been replaced in the state apparatus with the professional bureaucrats, often of a humble origin who, unlike the top level appointees, knew the “process” and could turn it any way they wanted . Similarly, in the army implementation of the regulations and instructions became the only way of life. Needless to say that the results had been opposite to the intended. Not that Nicholas did not see a problem but he did not see an alternative within absolutist ideology which he was considered as a “must”.

Probably it is reasonable to expect that after Constantine’s reign Nicholas was going to inherit even a greater mess while his upbringing would be pretty much the same. So perhaps an earlier death of Constantine (can you use cholera at least on him, pleeease? After all it is as in OTL 😉) may allow at least some chance for Nicholas to start his reign before his personality was settled in all bad ways?
Haha I have a few ideas in mind for Russia that will be quite a departure from OTL… and Constantine is key to a few of them!
 
Haha I have a few ideas in mind for Russia that will be quite a departure from OTL… and Constantine is key to a few of them!
A hit with something hard on his head hopefully could be handy for turning things to the better. Turning them to the worse is too trivial for you to bother. As Saltykov-Schedrin (who after all was a high-ranking bureaucrat) put it, accomplishing something to the shame of a country is easy, while doing things to its glory is extremely difficult.
 
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A Most Mercurial Man
A Most Mercurial Man

"...O Brother, I weep for you; my soul rends like a woman's garment, my body aches with the convulsions of tears..."

- Tsar Constantine I, at his brother Alexander's funeral


The geostrategic situation in Europe had been set for well over a decade - the unpredictable and ambitious Napoleon, against a more conservative, status-quo oriented continent that variably resisted him or sought to use his campaigns for short term advantage. Key to that balance had been Alexander, who had expertly maneuvered Russia into dominance over the Baltic, influence over the Danube, and made courting his empire a prerequisite for any future endeavors, for even if nobody could explicitly attract Russia to their side, they absolutely could not afford not to encourage her neutrality. Alexander's decisions were sometimes driven by rational, strategic planning, and sometimes by pique, but by the eve of his death most European diplomats at least understood what and who they were dealing with.

Constantine was everything his brother was not. Rumors abounded that he was insane; while this was an exaggeration he made Napoleon seem consistent and measured by comparison. He was beyond mercurial: thoroughly resistant to advice but easily cowed by strong-willed personalities, obsessed with army parades, scattershot in his planning, dependent on whatever mood struck him or his "gut," and perhaps most critically, utterly terrified of the idea of war, particularly with Napoleon's France. This was an outgrowth of his general resistance to conflict, but he seemed almost in awe of the French Emperor, referring to him as "brother" in every letter he wrote him (and he wrote nearly two per week during the first months of his reign) and dismissive of any notion that he was not indeed fast family with his sister's husband.

The plot by the Fifth Coalition to drag in Russia already was facing an uphill battle at the time before Alexander's death; the previous Tsar, though concerned about French hegemony in Germany, had been content for the time being to trust the word of Eugene de Beauharnais regarding the reassurances on Oldenburg and continue consolidating Russian control of the Baltic League and the Caucasus. With Constantine's ascension, it was effectively a dead letter, and Metternich accepted - and communicated as much to the British - that the game now was to secure Russian neutrality, which suited St. Petersburg just fine as it was. If France was driven from Germany and Napoleon cowed, Russian ministers surmised, it would point Austro-Prussian ambitions westwards for the foreseeable future; and if Napoleon won yet again, then Russia's dominant position over Prussia would only be more so, and a humbled Austria would pose less threat on their border, and Galicia could even be ripe for the plucking. Opportunities for advancing Russian interests abounded, provided they stayed quiet and patient and the Court curtailed Constantine's eccentricities.

Russia's opportunity to wait and observe presented itself before long. As expected, Karl von Dalberg resigned all temporal offices as Prince-Primate of the Confederation of the Rhine on his 70th birthday and Eugene de Beauharnais officially succeeded him before the Diet of Frankfurt - and with that, there was the cassus belli that Vienna and Berlin had sought to rejoin the British-Bourbon opposition to France. As the winter thaw arrived in March, Austria and Prussia gave off their final mobilization orders after a winter of preparations across the Continent. Across Germany, France, Italy, and the Duchy of Warsaw, armies were raised to counter them.

The War of the Fifth Coalition had begun.
 
Since the title of the thread is Napoleonic Victory, we can safely assume that the Fifth Coalition will get their collective butts kicked.
It is very possible that Duchy of Warsaw will have some part.
I think Poles might be able to at stop Austrian/Prussian forces sent against them - IOTL the Austrians had low opinion about DoW Army and in 1809 they sent only a corps against the Duchy. I think the Prussians will do the same, since they will need all the forces availabe against Napoleon and the French, ITTL not engaged in Spain. IOTL in 1809 Polish troops fought Austrian army rather succcessfully, despite actually loosing Warsaw. OTOH ITTL the Poles will also have Prussians against them, but DoW also have a few years more to organize, train and equip its army. Polish chances are... not good, but not so bad either. Poles have some competent commanders (Dąbrowski, Poniatowski, Zajączek) and they might or might not have some Saxon troops as allies (king of Saxony was also Duke of Warsaw).
Anyway, Napoleon is triumphant (again). So what is he going with Europe?
I believe Napoleon will punish Prussia and Austria very harshly. Duchy of Warsaw would gain some territory, since it proved to be a loyal ally and valuable guardian of the French interest right behind Austrian and Prussian back. Yes, as a Pole I want to see Poland reborn and strong. However, for Napoleon it would make sense. Strong Poland (I think we can forget about it being a Duchy of Warsaw for long) is useful for France. Anyone in Central/Eastern Europe even thinking about messing with French dominated Europe, would have to deal with Poland. And the Poles would remain loyal affraid of loosing (re)gained lands.
So, the Poles almost certainly get most of the lands taken by Austria during the third partition, possibly also some lands taken in the first partition (perhaps Lwów/Lviv?); there is a big chance for Poland to get Pomerania with Gdańsk/ Danzig back. Hell, if the Poles and Maria Walewska play their cards right, they might even get a part of Silesia (Upper Silesia, with Opole/Oppeln); assuming they ask for it.
It might end with, well, another partition of Prussia and perhaps even the end of Prussia as a kingdom. AFAIK Napoleon detested Prussia. He can offer East Prussia to the Russians, if they get involved. The tsar could easily and without big effort get new lands, which would make his subjects happy (aristocrats and army, anyway). Other Prussian neighbours (like Saxony) could also ask for their pound of flesh. So at the end out of the mighty Prussia only a rump state of Brandenburg would remain.
Austria might be more problematic, but I can imagine HRE being dismantled with Hungary and Bohemia as independent kingdoms, or perhaps just Hungary. Napoleon might prefer a number of relatively small states to avoid another anti-French coalition. King of Bohemia will not ally himself with King of Austria who also would like to get Bohemia back; and if Austria can not get its former lands back, there is no reason for it to rebel. And so on, and so on.
 
Since the title of the thread is Napoleonic Victory, we can safely assume that the Fifth Coalition will get their collective butts kicked.
It is very possible that Duchy of Warsaw will have some part.
I think Poles might be able to at stop Austrian/Prussian forces sent against them - IOTL the Austrians had low opinion about DoW Army and in 1809 they sent only a corps against the Duchy. I think the Prussians will do the same, since they will need all the forces availabe against Napoleon and the French, ITTL not engaged in Spain. IOTL in 1809 Polish troops fought Austrian army rather succcessfully, despite actually loosing Warsaw. OTOH ITTL the Poles will also have Prussians against them, but DoW also have a few years more to organize, train and equip its army. Polish chances are... not good, but not so bad either. Poles have some competent commanders (Dąbrowski, Poniatowski, Zajączek) and they might or might not have some Saxon troops as allies (king of Saxony was also Duke of Warsaw).
Anyway, Napoleon is triumphant (again). So what is he going with Europe?
I believe Napoleon will punish Prussia and Austria very harshly. Duchy of Warsaw would gain some territory, since it proved to be a loyal ally and valuable guardian of the French interest right behind Austrian and Prussian back. Yes, as a Pole I want to see Poland reborn and strong. However, for Napoleon it would make sense. Strong Poland (I think we can forget about it being a Duchy of Warsaw for long) is useful for France. Anyone in Central/Eastern Europe even thinking about messing with French dominated Europe, would have to deal with Poland. And the Poles would remain loyal affraid of loosing (re)gained lands.
So, the Poles almost certainly get most of the lands taken by Austria during the third partition, possibly also some lands taken in the first partition (perhaps Lwów/Lviv?); there is a big chance for Poland to get Pomerania with Gdańsk/ Danzig back. Hell, if the Poles and Maria Walewska play their cards right, they might even get a part of Silesia (Upper Silesia, with Opole/Oppeln); assuming they ask for it.
It might end with, well, another partition of Prussia and perhaps even the end of Prussia as a kingdom. AFAIK Napoleon detested Prussia. He can offer East Prussia to the Russians, if they get involved. The tsar could easily and without big effort get new lands, which would make his subjects happy (aristocrats and army, anyway). Other Prussian neighbours (like Saxony) could also ask for their pound of flesh. So at the end out of the mighty Prussia only a rump state of Brandenburg would remain.
Austria might be more problematic, but I can imagine HRE being dismantled with Hungary and Bohemia as independent kingdoms, or perhaps just Hungary. Napoleon might prefer a number of relatively small states to avoid another anti-French coalition. King of Bohemia will not ally himself with King of Austria who also would like to get Bohemia back; and if Austria can not get its former lands back, there is no reason for it to rebel. And so on, and so on.
The main potential problem with the above is that while the Russian “establishment” could not care less about the East Prussia (*) it did care a lot about the implications of having a big Polish state on its border: one of the OTL reasons for Alexander’s breakout with Napoleon was Napoleon’s refusal to guarantee that DoW is not going to be expanded. It was fully expected that extended Polish state is going to start looking for the Russian share of the Partitions and these expectations were not a pure paranoia: when the Congress Poland was created, the issue of the lost territories on the East had been raised.

So Nappy is facing a serious dilemma of having a balanced act: the Poles may (or may not) be awarded but such an award should not cause friction with the bigger player, Russia.

I would not overestimate influence of Walewska or any other Polish figure (**): Nappy usually kept the bed and politics separate and held an opinion that he already did enough to reward the Poles who, anyway, did not have an option but to follow him.

But, in practical terms, if Nappy wants to break Prussia he has to cut off either East Prussia or Silesia. Russia is not interested in EP but would be against giving it to the Duchy. Silesia is much more “neutral” in that regard. With Austria - Galicia is another “toxic” issue by pretty much the same reasons except that Russia may want at least a part of it.

_________
(*) If anything, there probably would be a certain amount of unhappiness about getting more Germans: there were already complaints about having too many of them both in the civic and military service. Neither would it provide noticeable opportunities for getting estates there: no free land available. Austrian Galicia was seemingly much more attractive.

(**) Allegedly, after Kosciusko expressed his ideas to Fouche and he communicated them to Napoleon, Napoleon shrugged them off as a complete foolishness.
 

Deleted member 143920

A Most Mercurial Man

"...O Brother, I weep for you; my soul rends like a woman's garment, my body aches with the convulsions of tears..."

- Tsar Constantine I, at his brother Alexander's funeral


The geostrategic situation in Europe had been set for well over a decade - the unpredictable and ambitious Napoleon, against a more conservative, status-quo oriented continent that variably resisted him or sought to use his campaigns for short term advantage. Key to that balance had been Alexander, who had expertly maneuvered Russia into dominance over the Baltic, influence over the Danube, and made courting his empire a prerequisite for any future endeavors, for even if nobody could explicitly attract Russia to their side, they absolutely could not afford not to encourage her neutrality. Alexander's decisions were sometimes driven by rational, strategic planning, and sometimes by pique, but by the eve of his death most European diplomats at least understood what and who they were dealing with.

Constantine was everything his brother was not. Rumors abounded that he was insane; while this was an exaggeration he made Napoleon seem consistent and measured by comparison. He was beyond mercurial: thoroughly resistant to advice but easily cowed by strong-willed personalities, obsessed with army parades, scattershot in his planning, dependent on whatever mood struck him or his "gut," and perhaps most critically, utterly terrified of the idea of war, particularly with Napoleon's France. This was an outgrowth of his general resistance to conflict, but he seemed almost in awe of the French Emperor, referring to him as "brother" in every letter he wrote him (and he wrote nearly two per week during the first months of his reign) and dismissive of any notion that he was not indeed fast family with his sister's husband.

The plot by the Fifth Coalition to drag in Russia already was facing an uphill battle at the time before Alexander's death; the previous Tsar, though concerned about French hegemony in Germany, had been content for the time being to trust the word of Eugene de Beauharnais regarding the reassurances on Oldenburg and continue consolidating Russian control of the Baltic League and the Caucasus. With Constantine's ascension, it was effectively a dead letter, and Metternich accepted - and communicated as much to the British - that the game now was to secure Russian neutrality, which suited St. Petersburg just fine as it was. If France was driven from Germany and Napoleon cowed, Russian ministers surmised, it would point Austro-Prussian ambitions westwards for the foreseeable future; and if Napoleon won yet again, then Russia's dominant position over Prussia would only be more so, and a humbled Austria would pose less threat on their border, and Galicia could even be ripe for the plucking. Opportunities for advancing Russian interests abounded, provided they stayed quiet and patient and the Court curtailed Constantine's eccentricities.

Russia's opportunity to wait and observe presented itself before long. As expected, Karl von Dalberg resigned all temporal offices as Prince-Primate of the Confederation of the Rhine on his 70th birthday and Eugene de Beauharnais officially succeeded him before the Diet of Frankfurt - and with that, there was the cassus belli that Vienna and Berlin had sought to rejoin the British-Bourbon opposition to France. As the winter thaw arrived in March, Austria and Prussia gave off their final mobilization orders after a winter of preparations across the Continent. Across Germany, France, Italy, and the Duchy of Warsaw, armies were raised to counter them.

The War of the Fifth Coalition had begun.

Excellent update! And as this is a Napoleonic victory TL, the 5th coalition will eventually lose - it only depends how and what punishment they receive.
 
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