L’Aigle Triomphant: A Napoleonic Victory TL

[holycookie]

Again, I dont buy into this kind of determinism
True, they choosed to focus on these areas, but we saw many Empires who had both
Rome is an example, they ruled the mediterranean both in land and sea after defeating a naval power despite being a land one

The mediteranep is not the same as the rest of the other seas. The Mediterranean will become a French lake, just as it was a Roman lake.Not the rest of the oceans. Rome had a bad navy, the thing was that the only one that could compete with the roman mediterranean navy was killed. Carthage was a continental nation as well, and it was from the Carthage Corps that most of the Roman navy's improvements took place.
Japan, for example, had a bad navy until it was unified, with a focus on the outside of the island, the navy became very powerful.
Being an island nation makes the country have a primary focus on the navy. A continental country, the army. It had its non-standard nations such as Portugal and the Netherlands. Portugal was basically an island without being able to expand on the mainland. The Netherlands was a merchant republic with a maritime focus.

Likewise while Britain didnt had a continental army as strong as France's, their overall army was immensely powerful to hold 1/4 of the world, after all their navy wouldnt let them rule any more than the coasts without a army

The biggest area of uk expansion was against countries that had a weaker military might than it. In india it was france vs uk. In the rest of asia/africa it was uk vs countries that had a bad army (or rather the uk army was more modern)

The German Empire also, while it never caught up to the Royal Navy(which is not a low bar, its the most powerful navy on the planet) it still had a strong navy(if not the strongest navy after Britain's) and was the strongest continental power both economically and navy-wise for quite a while

Yes, and that turned out to be a waste of money. That could have been used for the army with the german navy not being used in WW1.

Fair point, but a naval culture can be built
Im suggesting that in good circumstances the french could and should take advantage of their recent industrialization to build a strong navy with a naval culture that can be made after a generation

the French navy will be strong. Being the second or third largest navy in Europe. But a maritime culture takes generations

If they want to intervene direct yes, but I more so meant selling weapons and european goods as well as providing the chinese with french officers & technicians to help them modernize their armies and society

this all arrives to china by sea, or by siberia if russia allows it.

Do I think France would be that "good hearted" to upgrade the "dragon" Napoleon so feared? Of course not, but just a few of these things could get China to look up to France as their ally against the british after something like the Opium Wars happen, which would benefit the french immensely

or it would make uk scared. Imploding qing in various realms (a period of warlords). This also brings russia, with uk probably promising parts of china.Maybe bringing Portugal with promises of land and riches

 

[Kurd Gossemer]

Will the british rule the waves forever though?
Right now they have to put their shit together and get out of pretty much bankrupcy after founding so many useless wars against France and failing to hijack the Spanish Empire
France meanwhile rules Europe and has all the cards, if they make the best out of their current prosperous peace and achieve a high degree of industrialization they might as well be able to produce enough ships capable of challenging if not surpassing the Royal Navy
They of course lack the current leading talent of the Royal Navy's officers, but in a generation they will have passed away and the french will have brand new blood to fill the ranks of admirals
And if such thing happens(the french navy rivalizing the british) then they could take possessions in Asia and get away with it
Im not counting with that of course, things hardly go that well, but it is a possibility I think
I could also see a French-Qing approachment if France takes seriously what Napoleon said about China being a sleeping dragon and atempt to ally with them if something like the Opium Wars still happen ITTL

That's another thing to be considered, Napoleon is nothing but a military genius and with control of otl Belgium, large parts of Italy as well as friendly governments in Spain, Portugal, Netherlands, Denmark, Rhine Confederation and Naples, the french have a lot of places to not only build their navy but also train their sailors, especially because with peace on the continent, they'll try and rebuild a fleet to not only challenge England but also to establish colonies as well as protecting their commerce, the fact France won't be in the weakened position otl means they'll be able to surpass Britain due to having more resources they can use to fund it.

As for China, I could maybe see the French going the Portuguese route and attempt to get somewhere to trade and maybe get a consulate, otherwise they could just force the issue like the British did...

 

[holycookie]

That's another thing to be considered, Napoleon is nothing but a military genius and with control of otl Belgium, large parts of Italy as well as friendly governments in Spain, Portugal, Netherlands, Denmark, Rhine Confederation and Naples,

spain has the reactionary heir, portugal will be in chaos (with experienced navy sailors going to brazil), denmark has its capital in a very vulnerable place to annoy the uk, the rhine is a puppet state. Of all these, the netherlands will be the most important for a possible french navy, but even so, they have a chance of losing their colony in south africa if they irritate france's enemies.

the french have a lot of places to not only build their navy but also train their sailors, especially because with peace on the continent, they'll try and rebuild a fleet to not only challenge England but also to establish colonies as well as protecting their commerce, the fact France won't be in the weakened position otl means they'll be able to surpass Britain due to having more resources they can use to fund it.

The moment the uk realizes that france can overtake their navy, there will be a war. If the French navy is bigger than the uk, the country is dead.

As for China, I could maybe see the French going the Portuguese route and attempt to get somewhere to trade and maybe get a consulate, otherwise they could just force the issue like the British did...

probably

 

[Kurd Gossemer]

The mediteranep is not the same as the rest of the other seas. The Mediterranean will become a French lake, just as it was a Roman lake.Not the rest of the oceans. Rome had a bad navy, the thing was that the only one that could compete with the roman mediterranean navy was killed. Carthage was a continental nation as well, and it was from the Carthage Corps that most of the Roman navy's improvements took place.
Japan, for example, had a bad navy until it was unified, with a focus on the outside of the island, the navy became very powerful.
Being an island nation makes the country have a primary focus on the navy. A continental country, the army. It had its non-standard nations such as Portugal and the Netherlands. Portugal was basically an island without being able to expand on the mainland. The Netherlands was a merchant republic with a maritime focus.

The biggest area of uk expansion was against countries that had a weaker military might than it. In india it was france vs uk. In the rest of asia/africa it was uk vs countries that had a bad army (or rather the uk army was more modern)

Yes, and that turned out to be a waste of money. That could have been used for the army with the german navy not being used in WW1.

the French navy will be strong. Being the second or third largest navy in Europe. But a maritime culture takes generations

this all arrives to china by sea, or by siberia if russia allows it.

or it would make uk scared. Imploding qing in various realms (a period of warlords). This also brings russia, with uk probably promising parts of china.Maybe bringing Portugal with promises of land and riches

I agree with Aluma in the sentiment of "deterministic otl paths" inheritly having to happen, remember this is a much weaker UK who's been nearly bankrupt, internationally doesn't have otl prestige of having defeated Napoleon and overall is just sick and tired of any potential war or conflict for a whole generation, especially given the fact that they had been in a winning streak against France ever since the War of Spanish Succession and they've been hit with the realization that their massive navy and being island still doesn't mean they can't lose, so they'll also be better investing in a army to have it ready just in case, which will mean less resources on the navy, not to mention having to use said army in securing their colonies and digest the former Dutch East Indies.

Overall, it's a question of time for France to eventually surpass Britain here, especially if they're serious about wanting to finally close the gap between them and beat them in their own game.

 

[Kurd Gossemer]

spain has the reactionary heir, portugal will be in chaos (with experienced navy sailors going to brazil), denmark has its capital in a very vulnerable place to annoy the uk, the rhine is a puppet state. Of all these, the netherlands will be the most important for a possible french navy, but even so, they have a chance of losing their colony in south africa if they irritate france's enemies.

The moment the uk realizes that france can overtake their navy, there will be a war. If the French navy is bigger than the uk, the country is dead.

probably

What casus belli would the UK have against France beyond "their navy will overtake ours"? It'll only play in Napoleonic propaganda of the British being bloodthirsty warmongers who only care about diplomacy and "balance of power" when it's convenient to them, something the more prestigious France will take advantage of and ensure that outside of Sicily and Sardinia, there's not one power who would let them land in the continent, meaning they can either get into a resource war against the French (which with a more powerful France and more controlled Europe, will be a suicide mission) or peace out soon when they realize how much of a stupid idea it was in the first place and rather lose prestige instead of having their navy destroyed and the UK torn apart like Prussia was.

 

[holycookie]

I agree with Aluma in the sentiment of "deterministic otl paths" inheritly having to happen, remember this is a much weaker UK who's been nearly bankrupt, internationally doesn't have otl prestige of having defeated Napoleon and overall is just sick and tired of any potential war or conflict for a whole generation, especially given the fact that they had been in a winning streak against France ever since the War of Spanish Succession and they've been hit with the realization that their massive navy and being island still doesn't mean they can't lose,

I agree OTL uk had victory after victory. The point is that for France to maintain control of Europe, the army has to be massive. The vast majority of its allies are not allies, but puppet states.

so they'll also be better investing in a army to have it ready just in case, which will mean less resources on the navy, not to mention having to use said army in securing their colonies and digest the former Dutch East Indies.

I see them interpreting as the navy being the most important. Being the reason for the survival of the Napoleonic wave that took the continent

Overall, it's a question of time for France to eventually surpass Britain here, especially if they're serious about wanting to finally close the gap between them and beat them in their own game.

I see it more like what happened to imperial Germany. With a big investment in the navy that was of no use.
I agree with the issue of determinism. The point is that the uk, even if it has little money, can get more out of china and other places. The uk will not be the empire that the sun never sets. But it will be the empire with a large number of colonies if not the one with the most colonies

 

[holycookie]

What casus belli would the UK have against France beyond "their navy will overtake ours"? It'll only play in Napoleonic propaganda of the British being bloodthirsty warmongers who only care about diplomacy and "balance of power" when it's convenient to them,

It's better to be hated and alive than popular and dead, will be the likely thought of uk. not to mention that just like people saw the idea of a palace of power something that benefits the uk. Napoleon's propaganda will be seen in the same way (except within their puppet/allied states). Any country can see that France wants to have the biggest navy to defeat the UK. Like otl outside the west nobody cares about the ukraine war. Most of latin america doesn't care, as do the countries in asia and africa that are not allied with the usa (It's a modern example, most countries said that war is horrible and returned to focus on other issues. i expect something similar to happen. They talked that russia should not invade ukraine in the same way they said that the usa should not invade iraq, with disinterest)
Because it's seen as a power struggle (russia and usa) and on this time line uk vs france. They are more likely to be neutral and do business with both

there's not one power who would let them land in the continent

Russia perhaps, if France denies Poland. Spain if the crazy heir gets into disputes with France. There will always be some countries that will have a dispute against France

 

[holycookie]

the best strategy for France is a slow strangulation of the country. Gradually taking away uk's allies (the principal being portugal/brazil). Death by a thousand wounds is cheaper and more efficient. Encourage the allies and other european countries to have colonists outside of north africa (this belongs to france), sit with portugal/brazil (improve the relationship, it will take time, support with its military and economic will help.it will take at least a generation for the country to start liking France. The more the Brazilian elite strengthens itself against the Portuguese one, the better the relationship with France will be. Especially since the countries no longer have borders). Do not return portugal and make the country focus and expand more in south america than in the rest of the world (strengthening the brazilian elite against the portuguese one). In the long run, the Brazilian elite will control the Portuguese empire and relations will improve. Maybe promise the cape to the nation and some area with a coal. Or something similar. Basically honey attracts more flies than vinegar. With the biggest ally of the uk it will be similar

 

[Amon34]

so for the french navy will the young school's teachings be taken more seriously in France i can imagine france being feared because of its " sous-marins"

 

[holycookie]

so for the french navy will the young school's teachings be taken more seriously in France i can imagine france being feared because of its " sous-marins"

probably, france tends to have a history of competent officers (most of the time)

 

[Gudestein]

On the French naval build up. Iotl it took the Germans half a generation to build a navy that was a qualitative match of the Royal Navy and half its size. With Britain close to broke and French the much larger power, what could not be done ITTL?
And wouldn’t that be Napoleons biggest prize to have the British truly broken.

 

[Amon34]

France also has an advantage in the navy with its quadruple gun turret

 

[Kurd Gossemer]

On the French naval build up. Iotl it took the Germans half a generation to build a navy that was a qualitative match of the Royal Navy and half its size. With Britain close to broke and French the much larger power, what could not be done ITTL?
And wouldn’t that be Napoleons biggest prize to have the British truly broken.

That's what I'm saying, if the British are smart, they'll try and have better quality in sailors and ships instead of just trying to outspend and outnumber someone who has way more population and resources to draw from, especially without any pesky coalition wars and very well reformed and booming (France directly controls the Rhineland, Belgium and northern Italy who have coal and iron reserves which are perfect for industrialization and defeat the British even on that aspect) economy that allows them to much.

 

[holycookie]

That's what I'm saying, if the British are smart, they'll try and have better quality in sailors and ships instead of just trying to outspend and outnumber someone who has way more population and resources to draw from, especially without any pesky coalition wars and very well reformed and booming (France directly controls the Rhineland, Belgium and northern Italy who have coal and iron reserves which are perfect for industrialization and defeat the British even on that aspect) economy that allows them to much.

quality vs quantity? who wins, it's a very old question.
yes, it is likely that in europe france, uk and one or two more countries will industrialize. With the rest being prevented from industrializing in order not to compete with French products or not being able to compete. Maybe russia industrializes before otl?

 

[Amon34]

quality vs quantity? who wins, it's a very old question.
yes, it is likely that in europe france, uk and one or two more countries will industrialize. With the rest being prevented from industrializing in order not to compete with French products or not being able to compete. Maybe russia industrializes before otl?

it's going to be tough imperial russia is not known for its industrial successes, and the only czars who have tried are because of anarchists or the advising nobility

 

[alexmilman]

The mediteranep is not the same as the rest of the other seas. The Mediterranean will become a French lake, just as it was a Roman lake.

This is anything but obvious. To start with, there must be a clear motivation on the French side and an absence of motivation on all other sides.

The British OTL motivation was trade and, no matter how many miracles Nappy can perform, he can’t make France a major exporter of anything except for the gilded bronze, wine and silk (of a questionable quality). The Brits have a much wider nomenclature of the import and export items, which are meaningful both for the European part of the Med and for the Ottoman Empire. In OTL at least starting from 1852, Britain kept an increased presence in northern Egypt to maintain the overland trade route to India.

So it is reasonable to assume that there is going to be a serious competition between France and Britain even if not necessarily a military one.

Not the rest of the oceans. Rome had a bad navy, the thing was that the only one that could compete with the roman mediterranean navy was killed. Carthage was a continental nation as well, and it was from the Carthage Corps that most of the Roman navy's improvements took place.
Japan, for example, had a bad navy until it was unified, with a focus on the outside of the island, the navy became very powerful.

Japan was pretty much unified by Tokugawa Ieyasu by 1603 and did not have a powerful fleet until the end of the XIX century, which was a considerable time gap.

Being an island nation makes the country have a primary focus on the navy. A continental country, the army. It had its non-standard nations such as Portugal and the Netherlands. Portugal was basically an island without being able to expand on the mainland. The Netherlands was a merchant republic with a maritime focus.

You are missing the trifles like Spanish colonial empire (AFAIK, Spain hardly was an “island” in the same sense as Portugal and never was a merchant republic) and the Ottomans who controlled most of the Med for few centuries. Both of them managed to combine the naval power with having the most powerful army of their time.

The biggest area of uk expansion was against countries that had a weaker military might than it. In india it was france vs uk. In the rest of asia/africa it was uk vs countries that had a bad army (or rather the uk army was more modern)

It is more or less taken for granted that to have an expansion you need a military force greater than one into which territory you are expanding so no argument there. In the case of India it was probably not an issue of the French military might vs. British but rather of a combination of (a) general mismanaged of the state under Louis XV and too great involvement into the European war to allocate necessary resources elsewhere.

Yes, and that turned out to be a waste of money. That could have been used for the army with the german navy not being used in WW1.

the French navy will be strong. Being the second or third largest navy in Europe. But a maritime culture takes generations

The French had considerable merchant fleet and a sea-going culture centuries old. The huge negative factor was a ling-term massive involvement in the European continental wars, which gave Britain a very nice chance to became the biggest naval bully in a block.

this all arrives to china by sea, or by siberia if russia allows it.

It is an open question why would Russia become excessively fond of the idea of China becoming a French client instead of its own? In OTL after the 2nd (or even 1st) OW Russia started supplying China with the weapons and instructors. Influence meant open markets and China was a major Russian trade partner since the late XVII.

or it would make uk scared. Imploding qing in various realms (a period of warlords). This also brings russia, with uk probably promising parts of china.Maybe bringing Portugal with promises of land and riches

Errrr… At least in OTL Russia did not ask the British permission to get the big chinks of China. See Aigun and Beijing treaties: these territories are still part of Russia. And the further trade expansions had been happening mostly against the British wishes, just as annexation of the CA territories. Britain did not really rule the whole world.

 

[alexmilman]

quality vs quantity? who wins, it's a very old question.

An old British caricature dedicated to “Warrior” being an answer to “Gloire” actually was making stress on the money, which Britain had more then France. Author of this work of art was stupid because it was actually a quality: British metallurgy was more developed allowing to build the full metal warships vs. the wooden ships with an armor attached.

yes, it is likely that in europe france, uk and one or two more countries will industrialize. With the rest being prevented from industrializing in order not to compete with French products or not being able to compete. Maybe russia industrializes before otl?

Quite a few things should happen for the earlier Russian industrialization.Admittedly, none of them is ASB.

 

[holycookie]

This is anything but obvious. To start with, there must be a clear motivation on the French side and an absence of motivation on all other sides.

The British OTL motivation was trade and, no matter how many miracles Nappy can perform, he can’t make France a major exporter of anything except for the gilded bronze, wine and silk (of a questionable quality). The Brits have a much wider nomenclature of the import and export items, which are meaningful both for the European part of the Med and for the Ottoman Empire. In OTL at least starting from 1852, Britain kept an increased presence in northern Egypt to maintain the overland trade route to India.

yep, maybe excessive prices with only the Portuguese and English having access to Indian and Chinese products?

So it is reasonable to assume that there is going to be a serious competition between France and Britain even if not necessarily a military one.

for sure there will be a violent dispute between the two

Japan was pretty much unified by Tokugawa Ieyasu by 1603 and did not have a powerful fleet until the end of the XIX century, which was a considerable time gap.

they isolated themselves from the world. The country wouldn't need a navy in that case

You are missing the trifles like Spanish colonial empire (AFAIK, Spain hardly was an “island” in the same sense as Portugal and never was a merchant republic) and the Ottomans who controlled most of the Med for few centuries. Both of them managed to combine the naval power with having the most powerful army of their time.

Spaniards had a cheat code with infinite money, the ottoamnos had control of part of the region due to the need to access egypt

It is an open question why would Russia become excessively fond of the idea of China becoming a French client instead of its own? In OTL after the 2nd (or even 1st) OW Russia started supplying China with the weapons and instructors. Influence meant open markets and China was a major Russian trade partner since the late XVII.
Errrr… At least in OTL Russia did not ask the British permission to get the big chinks of China. See Aigun and Beijing treaties: these territories are still part of Russia. And the further trade expansions had been happening mostly against the British wishes, just as annexation of the CA territories. Britain did not really rule the whole world.

the idea would be more both attack at the same time to have more success in the campaign than because they are friends or anything like that.

 

[holycookie]

Quite a few things should happen for the earlier Russian industrialization.Admittedly, none of them is ASB.

a reformist emperor like peter I the great?
the rest I don't know. A bigger merchant class, less affordable products and competition etc?

 

[alexmilman]

yep, maybe excessive prices with only the Portuguese and English having access to Indian and Chinese products?

AFAIK, the Portuguese did not have a monopolistic access to China by the early XIX and while the Brits had almost monopolistic access to India, it was not fully monopolistic with the functioning Pondisheri, Goa and at least in OTL Dutch Coromandel and Dutch Bengal were restored to Dutch rule by virtue of the Anglo-Dutch Treaty of 1814.

Honestly, I don’t know what was more important for Britain in the early XIX: an ability to loot India or ability to enforce consumption of the British goods by the “natives”. However, putting the “excessive prices” on the goods from India would just kill them as the widely sold consumer goods in Europe (and Britain itself) and what advantage will the Brits get out of such a schema? After all, most of the India-originated goods were not exactly the first necessity items in Europe.

for sure there will be a violent dispute between the two

Not necessarily. In OTL the two of them managed to get along in post-Napoleonic times: neither had a practical need for a full domination of the Med.

they isolated themselves from the world. The country wouldn't need a navy in that case

So the “island” part is not a “must”.

Spaniards had a cheat code with infinite money,

It does not matter: they had a powerful navy while not being an island or heavy into the trade. Actually, for a while France of LXIV also had quite strong navy.

the ottoamnos had control of part of the region due to the need to access egypt

The Ottomans had been, for a while, controlling the Med all the way to Algeria. The pirates of the Barbary Coast had been their vassals. Hayreddin Barbarossa was Ottoman admiral.

the idea would be more both attack at the same time to have more success in the campaign than because they are friends or anything like that.

Well, why do you need these complications if you can just wait until somebody else successfully attacks and after this make a favorable treaty without a need to fire a single shot (except for the fireworks to celebrate conclusion of a treaty)? Pretty much as it happened in OTL.😂