Kurdistan after WW1

nastle

Banned
What if ( for once ) the British honored their promise to the Kurds and carved out a Kurdish state after WW1 ? spanning present day turkey/Syria/Iraq and iran
 

JAG88

Banned
What if ( for once ) the British honored their promise to the Kurds and carved out a Kurdish state after WW1 ? spanning present day turkey/Syria/Iraq and iran

You would get a filthy rich and extremely religious country in the middle of a barren ME. The Kurds were very conservative back then and they would inherit most of the Iranian and Iraqi oil, might want to invade Turkey and overthrow its secular government to restore the Ottomans and the Caliphate.

Expect everyone to want a piece of them in order to get their oil...
 

nastle

Banned
You would get a filthy rich and extremely religious country in the middle of a barren ME. The Kurds were very conservative back then and they would inherit most of the Iranian and Iraqi oil, might want to invade Turkey and overthrow its secular government to restore the Ottomans and the Caliphate.

Expect everyone to want a piece of them in order to get their oil...
Why would kurds want the caliphate back ? they might fight with turkey over the disputed lands though

Religious they are but they are kurds first muslim second, even back then.

What kind of relations they will have with USSR ? USA ? Israel ? pretty much every one hates them
 

JAG88

Banned
Why would kurds want the caliphate back ? they might fight with turkey over the disputed lands though

Religious they are but they are kurds first muslim second, even back then.

What kind of relations they will have with USSR ? USA ? Israel ? pretty much every one hates them

AFAIK the Kurds started to have issues with the Turks when they finally kicked out the Ottomans for good, they didnt like that the Caliph had been treated that way and was pretty much the start of the shit sandwich between them, until then they and the Turks had been the loyal base of the Ottoman armies in contrast to Armenians, Arabs, etc...

If they undertake a religious approach to politics then you would have a government motivated to kick the Jews out once the Brits are out of the picture.

Good point about Iran, that would be their main issue, trying to annex the Kurd populated areas, which happen to be oil rich as well.

What I wonder know is what do the Kurds do when the Greeks invade in 1920? That might radically change the picture...
 

nastle

Banned
AFAIK the Kurds started to have issues with the Turks when they finally kicked out the Ottomans for good, they didnt like that the Caliph had been treated that way and was pretty much the start of the shit sandwich between them, until then they and the Turks had been the loyal base of the Ottoman armies in contrast to Armenians, Arabs, etc...

If they undertake a religious approach to politics then you would have a government motivated to kick the Jews out once the Brits are out of the picture.

Good point about Iran, that would be their main issue, trying to annex the Kurd populated areas, which happen to be oil rich as well.

What I wonder know is what do the Kurds do when the Greeks invade in 1920? That might radically change the picture...
Thanks and I agree with your assessment too about relations between ottomans and kurds , however if the new turk govt under ataturk tries to impose Turkish culture on the kurds they might rebel against them.

Can Turkey and Iran make common cause against the Kurds ?

If greeks invade and Kurds "stab them in the back" , then turkey might be reduced to just a portion of Anatolia with big chunks occupied by Greeks in the WEst and Kurds in the East.
The USSR might help Kurds ? or not since they are hostile to Armenians which reside mostly on the soviet side now
 

JAG88

Banned
Thanks and I agree with your assessment too about relations between ottomans and kurds , however if the new turk govt under ataturk tries to impose Turkish culture on the kurds they might rebel against them.

Can Turkey and Iran make common cause against the Kurds ?

If greeks invade and Kurds "stab them in the back" , then turkey might be reduced to just a portion of Anatolia with big chunks occupied by Greeks in the WEst and Kurds in the East.
The USSR might help Kurds ? or not since they are hostile to Armenians which reside mostly on the soviet side now

There would be a natural to cooperation between Turkey and Iran on the Kurd issue, but the Greeks are the first that need to be considered, they invaded Turkey and advanced quite a bit, the Kurds could easily take advantage of that and prevent a Turkish recovery so we might see a seriously reduced Turkey and enlarged Greece and Kurdistan.

Iran didnt have a powerful military, a good deal of combat took place there in WW1 with little Iranian intervention, with Turkey collapsing under a pincer attack maybe they just stay out and prepare for a possible conflict with the Kurds.

THE USSR handed back Kars to the Turks and had a friendly stance, but they are not gonna get involved, not i n the 20s.

In any case, it would have been a bloodbath.
 
There would be a natural to cooperation between Turkey and Iran on the Kurd issue, but the Greeks are the first that need to be considered, they invaded Turkey and advanced quite a bit, the Kurds could easily take advantage of that and prevent a Turkish recovery so we might see a seriously reduced Turkey and enlarged Greece and Kurdistan.

Iran didnt have a powerful military, a good deal of combat took place there in WW1 with little Iranian intervention, with Turkey collapsing under a pincer attack maybe they just stay out and prepare for a possible conflict with the Kurds.

THE USSR handed back Kars to the Turks and had a friendly stance, but they are not gonna get involved, not i n the 20s.

In any case, it would have been a bloodbath.

I agree with this scenario, it is plausible even though others can claim it's not THE most plausible alternative. It is true that Kurdistan was historically conservative and may be religiously motivated to be anti-Israeli in the post-WWII era.

What I'm most curious about is how does Kurdistan's foreign relations play out during WWII and the Cold War. Germany had substantial assets in play trying to get Turkey, Iraq, and Iran on the Axis side and to take control of French Syria. Surely the Germans would work just as hard at Kurdistan. Does a joint Anglo-Soviet occupation of Kurdistan occur just as in Iran in 1941? Or does a pro-Axis but technically neutral Kurdistan get invaded by Turkey in February of 1945 when Turkey finally joined the Allies? Perhaps in conjunction with a Iran or Soviet invasion (Soviet Union had a couple puppet states in northwestern Iran already). Could US support for Kurdistan turn Turkey to reject the Marshall Plan and CENTO and become Finlandized or worse a Soviet ally (more like early PRC or Yugoslavia than a Poland or Hungary).

An Iraq without Sunni Kurds means Shi'ite control of Iraq and no chance of the Sunnis who are the majority in the north to take control of the whole country under Saddam Hussein (who would probably be butterflied away from being born). Shi'ite Iraq which is smaller, less oil, and weaker more in line with Iran probably. Kurdistan supports Sunni rebels in the north to destabilize, Kurdistan and Saudi Arabia probably close friends in an Anti-Iran alliance.
 
The Kurds ... would inherit most of the Iranian and Iraqi oil, might want to invade Turkey and overthrow its secular government to restore the Ottomans and the Caliphate.

No, they wouldn't. Certainly Iraqi Kurdistan does possess some good sized oil fields, particularly around Kirkuk. But those certainly aren't "most" of Iraq's or Iran's oil fields. Most of Iraq's oil production (about two-thirds) lies in the south where there are no Kurds.

I don't think any of Iran's major oil production are in areas dominated by Kurds. They are located in Abadan and offshore. There may be a very small amount of Iranian oil reserves found in Kurdish areas. Of course, even these would be offlimits in a post-WWI Kurdistan since Iran was not a belligerent.
 
What if ( for once ) the British honored their promise to the Kurds and carved out a Kurdish state after WW1 ? spanning present day turkey/Syria/Iraq and iran

The big problem is that Kurdish national identity is very weak at this time combined to other nationalisms. Most loyalty is at the tribe/clan level.

Nationalism is essentially a movement by well educated middle classes, primarily in the city. They may romanticize peasant culture and language, but the peasants themselves generally are late coming to nationalist movements. Their political loyalties and self-identities are much more locally based.

As a result, political loyalty is based on local strongmen, not an ethnos. This makes the state very weak as government leaders are unable to rally people to a higher ideal/loyalty and the government is weakened by narrow minded self interested parties who care only about their own faction, not the "nation".

A Kurdish state in 1919 would be very, very weak. It would be very politically unstable. At best, as good as Afghanistan was prior to the Soviet invasion. At worst, it would not survive.
 

JAG88

Banned
No, they wouldn't. Certainly Iraqi Kurdistan does possess some good sized oil fields, particularly around Kirkuk. But those certainly aren't "most" of Iraq's or Iran's oil fields. Most of Iraq's oil production (about two-thirds) lies in the south where there are no Kurds.

I don't think any of Iran's major oil production are in areas dominated by Kurds. They are located in Abadan and offshore. There may be a very small amount of Iranian oil reserves found in Kurdish areas. Of course, even these would be offlimits in a post-WWI Kurdistan since Iran was not a belligerent.

Back then yeah, Kirkuk was the major oil source.

The Iranians even had an oilpipe and refinery in Kurd areas.
 

JAG88

Banned
I agree with this scenario, it is plausible even though others can claim it's not THE most plausible alternative. It is true that Kurdistan was historically conservative and may be religiously motivated to be anti-Israeli in the post-WWII era.

What I'm most curious about is how does Kurdistan's foreign relations play out during WWII and the Cold War. Germany had substantial assets in play trying to get Turkey, Iraq, and Iran on the Axis side and to take control of French Syria. Surely the Germans would work just as hard at Kurdistan. Does a joint Anglo-Soviet occupation of Kurdistan occur just as in Iran in 1941? Or does a pro-Axis but technically neutral Kurdistan get invaded by Turkey in February of 1945 when Turkey finally joined the Allies? Perhaps in conjunction with a Iran or Soviet invasion (Soviet Union had a couple puppet states in northwestern Iran already). Could US support for Kurdistan turn Turkey to reject the Marshall Plan and CENTO and become Finlandized or worse a Soviet ally (more like early PRC or Yugoslavia than a Poland or Hungary).

An Iraq without Sunni Kurds means Shi'ite control of Iraq and no chance of the Sunnis who are the majority in the north to take control of the whole country under Saddam Hussein (who would probably be butterflied away from being born). Shi'ite Iraq which is smaller, less oil, and weaker more in line with Iran probably. Kurdistan supports Sunni rebels in the north to destabilize, Kurdistan and Saudi Arabia probably close friends in an Anti-Iran alliance.

WEll, the issue is very complex with an extended Greece on control of the straits, they are now the target of the SU and would be backed by the Entente in order to contain them, this means they would be backed against Turkey as well.

Kurdistan would be concerned with Iran, the SU and Turkey, so expected to try to keep close to Britain as well. I doubt the SU would cede Kars to them, Turkey got it IRL but they held the straits and that i vital for the weak SU so good relations with Turkey were important then, but the Kurds dont have anything to offer them.

Here is the fun part, the USSR wants the straits so expect them to press Bulgaria with the same results as IRL... but, once Italy invades Greece the USSR would be in a RUSH to get to the straits before the Italians, so they either join the Axis for the straits (I doubt they would allow the USSR to get it), or the sovierts cut a deal with Turkey in order to help them recover some of their territory under Kurd and Greek occupation with the condition that they get military control of the straits.

In that context, can the Greeks turn down the soviets when they come asking for bases in the straits?

The Greeks were reluctant to accept Brit help for fear of attracting a German attack, but what if the Turks/Soviets come calling posing a much more immediate threat? They cant hold the Anatolian coast while fighting Italy, they could lose Constantinople and more if they dont accede. Moreover, the SU has "good relations" with Germany and that might help prevent a German attack.

So I think that in order to prevent a Turk/Soviet thrust that would take all of their 20th century gains away form them plus a bloodbath, they would give ample concessions to the Soviets in the straits who would then try to prop up the Greeks with diplomatic support, equipment and training.

With that Barbarossa is pretty much guaranteed, but I have my doubts about the Soviets withstanding German pressure to not intervene, they did cede a lot to Germany at the time.

Pike doent happen for the same reasons IRL, no one wants to upset the USSR once France is down, specially the countries within striking range.
 
What if ( for once ) the British honored their promise to the Kurds and carved out a Kurdish state after WW1?
Out of interest what promises did they make to the Kurds? I know that they made deals which they went back on with the Hashemites and Arabs in general, but I hadn't heard about anything specially with regards to the Kurds.
 
One thing that would have to be considered under this conversation is that Kurdistan wouldn't exist in isolation. If they do exist (under a successful plebiscite under the Treaty of Sevres?) then Armenia would also exist as well, and be much larger to boot. Even if they didn't have the totality of the territory implied under Sevres, they would occupy much of the land directly north of Kurdistan.

Which would make things interesting on their own. If Kurdistan is independent, it has a natural ally to the north of it that shares concerns with its larger neighbors east and west. If they both retain independence and their Sevres borders (big if) they might take part in the war against Turkey - the both of them. ...Still, I don't see how much you can change to get actual material support, unless somehow Russian performance during the war improves and they don't collapse so early.
 

nastle

Banned
One thing that would have to be considered under this conversation is that Kurdistan wouldn't exist in isolation. If they do exist (under a successful plebiscite under the Treaty of Sevres?) then Armenia would also exist as well, and be much larger to boot. Even if they didn't have the totality of the territory implied under Sevres, they would occupy much of the land directly north of Kurdistan.

Which would make things interesting on their own. If Kurdistan is independent, it has a natural ally to the north of it that shares concerns with its larger neighbors east and west. If they both retain independence and their Sevres borders (big if) they might take part in the war against Turkey - the both of them. ...Still, I don't see how much you can change to get actual material support, unless somehow Russian performance during the war improves and they don't collapse so early.
True also Azerbaijan will have nationalist aspirations too and try to free themselves from Persian yoke

How about a soviet supported Kurd war against Iran and Turkey which they win with Russian weapons and Kurdistan becomes another SSR ?
 
True also Azerbaijan will have nationalist aspirations too and try to free themselves from Persian yoke

How about a soviet supported Kurd war against Iran and Turkey which they win with Russian weapons and Kurdistan becomes another SSR ?

Doubtful. The USSR has enough trouble, what with the war with Poland. They wouldn't have the ability to support any of the Middle Eastern nations spawned from the Ottoman Empire. It might be best for Georgia and Azerbaijan to somehow manage their own independence, giving you four small nations that might (very had to do) ally against the three surrounding ones.

That would just be an interesting timeline. How would those four nations manage to interact with each other and with outside foes? Would they divide themselves and leap on a vulnerable member to expand their borders, or would they work together to strengthen themselves against a revanchist Turkey and a Soviet Union that is casting eyes at Baku...

...Also, what would happen to Batum and Kars when they're surrounded by Armenia on one side and Georgia on the other? Division, or something else? Also: if Azerbaijan is free, they may be looking towards Azerbaijan in Iran, just as Kurdistan would be. It would be a very interesting dynamic.
 

nastle

Banned
Doubtful. The USSR has enough trouble, what with the war with Poland. They wouldn't have the ability to support any of the Middle Eastern nations spawned from the Ottoman Empire. It might be best for Georgia and Azerbaijan to somehow manage their own independence, giving you four small nations that might (very had to do) ally against the three surrounding ones.

That would just be an interesting timeline. How would those four nations manage to interact with each other and with outside foes? Would they divide themselves and leap on a vulnerable member to expand their borders, or would they work together to strengthen themselves against a revanchist Turkey and a Soviet Union that is casting eyes at Baku...

...Also, what would happen to Batum and Kars when they're surrounded by Armenia on one side and Georgia on the other? Division, or something else? Also: if Azerbaijan is free, they may be looking towards Azerbaijan in Iran, just as Kurdistan would be. It would be a very interesting dynamic.
I think there will be infighting with the 4 states trying to get as many concessions as they can before a peace is imposed by one of their big neighbors.
 
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