Kriegsmarine sorties in force to the Med prior to WW2 outbreak

What if the German war plan decided to leave the Atlantic/Baltic campaigns to the U-boats, and concentrate their surface fleet to the Mediterranean, with eyes on Suez (also abandoning the Norway campaign).

So sometime between late 1938 and mid 1939, the Germans announce a "show the flag" tour of the Med with their primary surface fleet, concluding with joint war games with Italy (including Lufrwaffe dive bombing/torpedo practice), and then rest at various Italian ports.

This would mean that when the war begins, the Germans have the following ships in the Med:
Bismarck, Scharnhorst, Gneisenau, Prinz Eugen, Hipper, Blucher, Scheer, Graf Spee, Deutschland, plus a group of destroyers as well as some support ships.

What would be the British (and French) reaction to this deployment? Would the Taranto raid be scrubbed or broadened in scope? What about the Crete and Malta operations, as well as North Africa?

Would the Kriegsmarine be a much tougher nut to crack as a combined force, combined with the Italians, and the addition of air cover?

Ric350
 
Italy is still neutral for the first 9 months of the war. That means you've trapped the entire German surface fleet between two superior British forces at Gibraltar and Alexandria, with the French to boot, without a port they can use once the war starts. Not to mention giving up Norway will lead to a reduction in iron ore imports that will surely hurt their economy.
 
They would still lose and would place their campaigns in mainland Europe at risk by potentially spooking other countries (France in particular) into a partial mobilization. They would not take Norway and their campaign in Poland would become somewhat harder without the naval support given at battles like Danzig Bay.

Not a good proposition for them at all.
 
Sooooooo - Sept 39 Germany has

2 Battleships (S and G) -Im assuming that the 2 Pre dreads would not be able to accompany any surface force? (Scharnhorst was not ready for service until Nov 1939 due to a post shakedown refit and modifications to make her seaworthy!)
3 Armoured Cruisers (Note Admiral Scheer was in refit at the time of the POD and not ready for service until end of July 1940)
2 Heavy Cruisers (This includes Blücher who was not ready for service until 4th April 1940 so cannot take part in this POD - and note that Prinz Eugen did not enter service until Aug 1940)
6 Light Cruisers (Karlsruhe in refit till April 1940,
22 Destroyers
20 Torpedo boats / small dds



Britain has at the same time

12 Battleships and 3 Battlecruisers (all 15" or 16" armed)
6 Aircraft carriers
15 Heavy Cruisers
40 light Cruisers
6 AAA Cruisers (C-Class)
1 Cruiser mine layer
113 Modern DDs
68 Old DDs

La France has at the same time

8 Battleships
1 .....Aircraft carrier
7 Heavy Cruisers
12 Light Cruisers
78 Destroyers

So I would have thought that the French alone would have a reasonable chance of dominating such a fleet with support from the British (Probably 2 of the 3 BCs and a handful of BBs for heavy escort work plus enough heavy and Light Cruisers to double down on each of the German cruisers)

Now where does this fleet base from?

Italy is Neutral until May 40 and under international Law either interns the ships (disarming them for the duration) and their crews under the supervision of international observers or politely asks them to leave.

If by some POD they end up having a base it gets isolated / blockaded and very likely gets its own Judgement day or night as it was - but this time without the need to keep carriers out hunting surface ships or standing by to hunt surface ships you could get Ark Royal and the Follies launching a 100 plane port strike
 
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What if the German war plan decided to leave the Atlantic/Baltic campaigns to the U-boats, and concentrate their surface fleet to the Mediterranean, with eyes on Suez (also abandoning the Norway campaign).

So sometime between late 1938 and mid 1939, the Germans announce a "show the flag" tour of the Med with their primary surface fleet, concluding with joint war games with Italy (including Lufrwaffe dive bombing/torpedo practice), and then rest at various Italian ports.

This would mean that when the war begins, the Germans have the following ships in the Med:
Bismarck, Scharnhorst, Gneisenau, Prinz Eugen, Hipper, Blucher, Scheer, Graf Spee, Deutschland, plus a group of destroyers as well as some support ships.

What would be the British (and French) reaction to this deployment? Would the Taranto raid be scrubbed or broadened in scope? What about the Crete and Malta operations, as well as North Africa?

Would the Kriegsmarine be a much tougher nut to crack as a combined force, combined with the Italians, and the addition of air cover?

Ric350

Quite a strange idea if Italy remains neutral as OTL. Remember the fiddling with merchant sailings that could have been used to lock AGS in Montevideo?

More realistically, Italy joins the war earlier, say in September 1939. This is a big problem for the Axis navies, as their active capital strength, until summer 1940, consists of S&G for the Kriegsmarine, and Caio Duilio, Giulio Cesare and Conte di Cavour for the RM. This is essentially five weakly armed battleships, three of which are also inadequately armoured and cannot stand against an R or QE. Able to concentrate their full strength in the Med, the British and French navies would be itching for the chance for a fleet action.

If the Axis was sensible, it would avoid a fleet action until the Littorios are ready, with the side effect that France collapses on schedule. Unfortunately, the Axis fleet may not get a choice, as early Italian entry is bad news for anyone in Cyrenaica and Tripolitania. With the French and British pressing on both sides, the Axis navies will be required to attempt to break the blockade. Given the huge disparity in naval strength, this will not end well.
 
It's important to realise that historically the possibility of the Germany navy getting out to the convoy lanes led to the Royal Navy keeping roughly 3:1 forces of fast units in home waters.

This allowed the Italians to have parity and left the Japanese unopposed in the far east.

Now you have forced Italy into the war early and allowed Britain to concentrate in one sea. The axis navies will either give battlecr be bombed of existence in a Taranto like port raid.
 
In sep[tem,ber 1939 teh situation was still worse for the Kriegsmarine. It only had at the time the Admiral Graf Spee, which already was in the South Atlantic, Deutschland in the North Atlantic, Köln, Karlsruhe and Konigsberg, though the later one parlty crewed. Leipzig was refitting, Nurnberg most likely in training, as was Emden. Rebuilding was Admiral Scheer, Fitting out were Admiral Hipper and Scharnhorst, Gneisenau was the only battleship in active service, but having teethingproblems.

That is a total of only Gneisenau, Köln, Karlsruhe and maybe the Nurnberg. Not a serious force, especially as Gneisenau was needed a trainingprogram still to test her newly added equipment and the light cruisers toowere not fully battleworthy, since they were in more or less trainingmode.

So only the sailing trainingship Georg Fock was a possibility to send to the Mediterranean Sea for a show down!
 
German KM was casting around for more submarines (Japan and even USSR) when caught with earlier than planned for war? they MIGHT have swapped unfinished carrier Graf Zeppelin to Italians for some long range submarines and/or auxiliary cruisers.

that's about only way German vessels end up in the Med. (Mare Nostrum and all)
 
What do the Germans do for spare parts and ammunition? Since there is basically none of that in Italy, stuff has to be ordered and shipped in from Germany- from the Baltic bases all the way to Taranto or Naples or wherever. Additionally as ships need repair or maintenance exactly how much Italian shipyard capacity is lying around not being utilized. legally the German ships in Italy have 24 hours to leave after entering port, and have a n interval before they can come back or be interned. Until Italy declares war they have to tread carefully, as failure to abide by these rules will subject them to British and French retaliation and they are very vulnerable until May, 1940. The interned Germans and their ships could be treated well, and kept in condition, but until Italy declares war they are out of action.

Going in to the Med without the potential to use Italian bases, in the face of French and British fleets when war breaks out will result in the destruction of the German fleet to no good effect.
 

CalBear

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The Royal Navy sends Christmas Cards to Berlin for the rest of the war. So much easier to shoot fish in a barrel than chased the GD things all over the Atlantic and IO.

The King of Norway sends a fruit basket every major holiday directly to Raeder since without an surviving surface assets Norway is completely safe from invasion (unless Perfidious Albion makes a move, which was at least under consideration).
 
In the future, when the Kriegsmarine is reconstituted all naval officers are required to repeat the phrase "fleet in being" at every meal.
 
The Royal Navy sends Christmas Cards to Berlin for the rest of the war. So much easier to shoot fish in a barrel than chased the GD things all over the Atlantic and IO.

The King of Norway sends a fruit basket every major holiday directly to Raeder since without an surviving surface assets Norway is completely safe from invasion (unless Perfidious Albion makes a move, which was at least under consideration).

Far more importantly, the Merchant Marine sends fruit baskets to Berlin. No occupied Norway means the PQ convoys are a whole lot safer and quite a few U-boats have to travel even further into the North Atlantic from France post July 1940 instead of sailing from Bergen.

Bomber Command torches a few more German cities instead of trying to bomb Tirpitz.
 
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