Koxinga invades Spanish Manila instead of Dutch Taiwan

Maoistic

Banned
Koxinga in 1661 amassed a large military from his base in continental China to invade Taiwan, then held by the Dutch (and called Formosa instead). After 1 year of besieging the godforsaken island, Koxinga finally managed to evict the Dutch out of it.

Now the scenario is this: Koxinga uses that very same military but invades Manila instead. Do you think Koxinga would have been successful in evicting the Spaniards, or would he have failed?
 
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Koxinga in 1661 amassed a large military from his base in continental China to invade Taiwan, then held by the Dutch (and called Formosa instead). After 1 year of besieging the godforsaken island, Koxinga finally managed to evict the Dutch out of it.

Now the scenario is this: Koxinga uses that very same military but invades Manila instead. Do you think Koxinga would have been successful in evicting the Spaniards, or would he have failed?
He would have taken advantage if the Rebels at that time won, since Manila is inhabited by the Spanish, the Natives would have carved their own states(the state of the Maniago-Almazan revolt in Northern Luzon backed by the Dutch) etc and allow Koxinga to settle manila, Luzon gets carved between the Rebel state and Koxinga's state and possibly Visayas gets carved between Maguindanao and Koxinga's state.

I think Koxinga wants to abandon Taiwan in favor of a slice of the Philippines.

The real problem of Koxinga would have been the Bruneians backed by Qing not the rebel states.
 
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