Kosygin is contacted by Taraki instead of Brezhnev and any hardliner?

Status
Not open for further replies.
Let's say Brezhnev and major hardliners like Suslov are on leave for the whole of March-Early April 1979, during the Herat Uprising. They tell t the people they leave behind, "Don't inform us about politics until we come back for we want quality vacation time!" Only Kosygin is left in the Kremlin (say he was not invited much to his disappointment). Taraki calls the remaining power in Moscow: Kosygin.

Kosygin tells Taraki to reach an agreement with party dissidents and in the meantime reached out to the more moderate elements among conservative tribal leaders. But still, Kosygin, knowing either way he will be forced to intervene, decides to put at least some troops there (just some). But still, Brezhnev and other hardliners upon returning go full-on with troops and aircraft in Afghanistan. So their situation is:

1.) Successful soaking off rebels from the hard core Islamic fundamentalists. Basically social reform.

2.) Around the same amount of military support IOTL.

So with more support from the people and with a large amount of aid, I think the USSR might have won in Afghanistan very quickly. Assuming the USSR reforms (ex. without a Chernobyl like Inaki's TL) and the Eastern Bloc survives, what's Afghanistan's status today? Well no doubt it would have been much, much better.

This is related to my other thread "Ramon Magsaysay as President 1953-61 or 1953-65".
 
Last edited:
Let's say Brezhnev and major hardliners like Suslov are on leave for the whole of March-Early April 1979, during the Herat Uprising. They tell t the people they leave behind, "Don't inform us about politics until we come back for we want quality vacation time!" Only Kosygin is left in the Kremlin (say he was not invited much to his disappointment). Taraki calls the remaining power in Moscow: Kosygin.

Kosygin tells Taraki to reach an agreement with party dissidents and in the meantime reached out to the more moderate elements among conservative tribal leaders. But still, Kosygin, knowing either way he will be forced to intervene, decides to put at least some troops there (just some). But still, Brezhnev and other hardliners upon returning go full-on with troops and aircraft in Afghanistan. So their situation is:

1.) Successful soaking off rebels from the hard core Islamic fundamentalists. Basically social reform.

2.) Around the same amount of military support IOTL.

So with more support from the people and with a large amount of aid, I think the USSR might have won in Afghanistan very quickly. Assuming the USSR reforms (ex. without a Chernobyl like Inaki's TL) and the Eastern Bloc survives, what's Afghanistan's status today? Well no doubt it would have been much, much better.

Even the hardliners in Moscow were realistic about prospects in Afghanistan. Taraki and Amin's infighting and Amin's Stalinist policies which alienated the countryside caused the problem to get much worse. Remember, Amin overthrew Taraki after Taraki's plan he conjured in Moscow (with Brehznev and said hardliners) was leaked and he learned that he was to be ousted and the reforms scaled down. Amin beforehand was repeatedly told by the Soviets that "they had been building Socialism for 60 years and still weren't finished." Amin replied "did Stalin build the revolution with white gloves?"

I think the problems which precipitated Soviet intervention was primarily Afghan, not Soviet. Yes, perhaps Kosygin and company could have avoided the black hole but keep in mind by the Herat uprising it seemed that the PDPA was going to be thrown out and pro-Americans in (remember, the USA was giving aid before the Soviets entered Afghanistan). While this fear is vastly overstated with retrospect, it wasn't so obvious at the time.
 
Maybe Kosygin had foresight and did what I said. And he persuades Brezhnev to intervene a bit, but Brezhnev overreacts. Also Amin dies due to a stray bullet some time here in March-April, and leaving Taraki with absolute power. So yes Taraki during March-April 1979 agrees with those 'moderate Islamists' and Party dissidents, and therefore has support and the Soviets win.
 
Last edited:
Top
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top