Korolev live longer, USSR circle the moon first mid 1968

Archibald

Banned
Ok, we all know USSR just couldn't win the moon race, at least they could not land, not with this monster N-1 rocket.

But whatif they had circle the moon before Apollo 8, around september 1968 ?

Let's suppose that Korolev survive surgery in january 1966. Then early Soyuz flight are less disturbed, Komarov fly later but at least he survive. This, and Korolev charisma and caracter strong enough to resist pressure from the Party allow a much more reliable Zond spacecraft.

Thus Leonov and its mate circle the moon before Apollo 8 in august 1968.
Ok, they can't even enter orbit, but how would this impact Apollo ?
 
snipped/ Thus Leonov and its mate circle the moon before Apollo 8 in august 1968. Ok, they can't even enter orbit, but how would this impact Apollo ?

First, the more likely time for a cirum lunar mission would have been early DEC 68 (maybe NOV), unless you have major changes in production schedules (not something even Korolev's survival would specifically change) and the moon orbit (NOV and DEC launch windows, form Balkinor were easlier)

So if they make the flight in DEC 68 ... I don't see a lot short term effects. AS-8 still goes in late DEC. It's a far better mission, (If I remember the Soviet "manned" lunar flyby have no provisions for live tranmission of video, and had no photo profiles so no earthrise picture), pictures broadcast live, the readings, the orbits et. al. Maybe AS-9, goes early, pushing the schedule ahead AS-11 lands in JUN or MAY.

The major factor is the INTEL, the US GOV knew the Soviets, have lost by the summer of 68, and that at most they could do one or two flybys in the NOV /DEC time frame. (note while it's true this INTEL helped the Apollo managers sell the AS-8 to the moon plan, the people who got the idea, AS-8 was originally a high earth orbit, didn't know the INTEL).

Any impact would have been long term next 3-5 years, Korolev could have kept the Soviet moon program going (trying but not likely to succeed) during that time (the Kremlin finally shut down the program around 72 after 2 years beign indifference).

So it is possible that the Nixon administration and the Democrat leadership in Congress are willing to give more money and allow at least the moon program to finish (AS-19) and NASA contuine flying Apollo/Skylab missions and build the shuttle it wanted (a much simpler machine that arrives much sooner). But thats all.
 
That's a possibility. Another possibility is that the Americans up the ante, by not just landing, but using the Apollo missions to build a moonbase and carry out extended surface operations.
 
the lunar circumlunar missions was the Soyuz 7K-L1 aka Zond
http://www.astronautix.com/craft/soyz7kl1.htm

The 7K-L1 never actually demonstrated that it could safely take a cosmonaut around the moon and return him to earth until August 1969
that thanks to Mishin

the CIA warning NASA on July 1 over Zond project.
wat let to Apollo 8 Lunar mission
the orginal plan was to test LM in low orbit (made by Apollo 9)

backt to Soyuz 7K-L1 in september 1968 there were 3 spacecraft left (of 15!)
one to be used unmanned flight as Zond 8 in december 1969
in April 1970 a two men flight
 

Archibald

Banned
that thanks to Mishin

Exactly! That why I supposed that Korolev lived longer. Its has some advantages when compared to Mishin

- it was a much better leader (in the sense of human ressources)
- he resisted better to intense pressures from the Party (having survived gulag in the 30's, what could be worse aside being killed?)
- its technical skills were better, or at least he always found a trick to solve initial failures.
(For exemple the LK was overweight while the N-1 was underpowered; he was confident he could find a solution to both problems, sadly he died before, and Mishin never find the trick by itself:p)
 
to get USSR first into Lunar orbit first

easy way
the CIA make mistake and think that USSR will not flight Manned Zond mission.
NASA use Apollo 8 for LM-2 Test in low orbit.
and USSR make manned Zond Flight in beginn 1969
(note Cosmonaut wears spacesuit during complett flight !)

Hard way
NASA use Apollo 8 for Lunar orbit flight
but they have a Oxygen tank explosion like Apollo 13
with out LM as lifeboat the Astronaut dies on board.
in 1969 Nixon chanceld the Apollo program
make way free for USSR lunar Orbital in 1970 and Lunar Landing 1973

because the Lunar Soyuz Hardware was not ready for Flight in 1969

Alternative 3
Chelomei Project LK-1
is like the Zond but no Soyuz 7K-L1 instatt LK-1 Spacecraft.
http://www.astronautix.com/craft/lk1.htm
see attach picture of LK-700 Prototype is like LK-1

In October 1965 Korolev managed to get the project cancelled and started development of his Soyuz 7K-L1/Block D spacecraft in place of the LK-1.
wat if Chelomei conter Korolev with sucess and made in oktober 1968 first manned Lunar flight ?


Note N-1:
Korolev knew that N-1 had to low Payload

he play with Idea of dual launch of N-1 and rendevous in low orbit.
but he died and Vasily Mishin sqrew thinks heavy up

Vasily Mishin put N-1 from 24 + 6 more to 30 engines
to get more fuel they used super cooled LOX
wat put metal stress on Fuelline to engines
most of the NK-15 engines were NEVER testet and build in to N-1 Block A
Pogo oscillation ripp the LOX fedline open...
the 4 test launch (of 12 planned tests ) were failure

at the july 1969
Vasily Mishin were in hospital because of heavy drinking
as his worker came up again with dual launch of N-1
but Niel Armstrong Buzz aldwin landet on Moon

and in 1973 the USSR gave up the N-1 program and Lunar program

LK-700.jpg
 
Unless you make changes in NASA, regardless of the CIA report, AS-8 is almost certainly going to the moon in DEC 68 or JAN 08.

OTL History; the genesis of the idea to send AS-8 (which was originally the low orbit CSM/LM flight test) goes to delays in the delivery of the first man rated LM (LM-3 I believe). It was delayed until FEB 69.

That meant either AS-8 is a repeat AS-7 with the Saturn V (trivia, the original AS-8 LM test profile was for two launchs on Saturn IAs, one for the CSM and one for the LM, a "D" mission) in high orbit, watch McDivitt et. al. go aroundthe earth or delay AS-8 (2nd trivia originally AS-8 was the McDivitt crew and AS-9 was Borman's major impacts down stream).

The first thoughts of sending AS-8 to the moon, with an LM (why go around the earth twice?) were in the spring of 68, by George Low, before the CIA reports.

The CIA report combined with the lack LM added the weight to the decision. An excellent source is Apollo: the Race to the Moon, Murray & Cox, for the Apollo history.

So, the Korolev or not AS-8 goes as OTL, and least the next year goes relatively similar.
 
TL History; the genesis of the idea to send AS-8 (which was originally the low orbit CSM/LM flight test) goes to delays in the delivery of the first man rated LM (LM-3 I believe). It was delayed until FEB 69.

there is LM-2 never used in flight, stand now in Museum
was for a unmanned suborbital Test (after LM-1 sucess LM-2 mission was cancelled)
my fault :eek:
No Lunar Apollo 8
so Apollo 8 fly march 1969 wit LM-3 Test
Apollo 9 in may 1969 test LM-4 in Lunar Orbit
Apollo 10 july 16. first Lunar landing on Moon
makes Thomas Stafford first men on Moon

backt to Soyuz 7K-L1
the CIA was some time wrong with there analysis, so with Soyuz 7K-L1
wat if they found out over real status of Soyuz 7K-L1 Program ?

with Apollo 9 test in May 18, 1969

a Soyuz 7K-L1 flight for May 1, 1969 is possbly but with some Problems:

The forward living module was deleted, also the reserve parachute !
only one Cosmonaut on board (lifesupport problems)
the cosmonaut was to wears spacesuit during complett flight !
(because a gasket failed, leading to cabin depressurisation, happen some testflight)
better training in manual navigation in case of failure of automated systems
improved training in survival of 20 G re-entries. if the automated SUS capsule guidance system fails.
wat happen most testflight

with Bykovsky as pilot, Rukavishnikov as backup.
in OTL the mission was cancelled after the success of the lunar Apollo 8.
 
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