Korean War WI: MacArthur halts north of Pyongyang?

[Southpaw]

What if, instead of continuing northwards during the first UN counteroffensive of the Korean War in late 1950, Douglas MacArthur halts (or is ordered to halt) north of Pyongyang, where the peninsula is narrowest? In this situation I doubt the Chinese intervene, and what remains of the North is totally unable to push southwards.

A ceasefire along this line leaves North Korea so weak as to make pursuing the middle way between the USSR and China it tried to follow in OTL until the '90s impossible, and in fact it is most likely a Chinese or Soviet satellite. Kim il-Sung is also probably replaced with a more pliable leader when he starts revealing his megalomaniacal tendencies. As communism falls in the Eastern Bloc in the late '80s (presuming this is not affected by the WI), it fairly quickly reunifies with the South, which as in OTL has developed into a major economic power. In this timeline, however, Pyongyang is South Korea's second city and a booming metropolis, rather than the concrete ghost town it is today.

 

[Daztur]

Yeah, if the Americans stop there the Chinese probably won't intervene and there's nothing the shattered remnants of the North Korean army can do at that point. However getting MacArthur to do that will take some work.

 

[Fearless Leader]

I wonder if in TTL Pyongyang might not eventually outstrip Seoul due to the proximity of so many natural resources?

But I agree...in all likelihood the Maoist faction of the NKCP is ascendant once a ceasefire is agreed to. The DPRK falls into the Chinese orbit and will remain like that for most of the Cold War.

However there are some bigger effects to be seen here.

In TTL the Korean War is the epitome of a "Short Victorious War" for the US/UN lasting all of 5 months (June-October 1950). It'll be tight to avoid a Chinese attack in October 1950, but if the Americans make their demarcation line clear I think Mao might opt not to attack. At any rate, assuming MacArthur's still in charge, his star is going to be ascendant and he'll be a force to be reckoned with at the RNC in 1952. Might Truman try for a 3rd term in 1952 in TTL?

Without a long Korean War, Japan might not receive the same level of investment. It's postwar rebound will be smaller in TTL.

Also without a prolonged conflict with China, Sino-American relations will be considerably warmer in TTL.

 

[LeX]

In this scenario, North Korea would be hardly a viable alternative to the South. The south would have about 25 million people versus something like 5 million in northern North Korea. I wouldn't be surprised if the PLA moves into the area, helps Kim wage partisan warfare for a year or two, and then turns the DPRK into the Korean Autonomous Region of the PRC after finding the situation hopeless.

 

[Southpaw]

I think Seoul would still be the largest city, due to being the capital and historically most prominent. Pyongyang is still going to be much bigger than OTL. A positive thing for the South is that while OTL's version is notoriously resource-poor, what is now North Korea is extremely rich in mineral resources, even if a lot of them are still going to be in the rump North.

And Truman is going to be viewed far more positively in such a TL, though after twenty years of Democratic Presidents he's still unlikely to win IMO.

 

[cubefreak123]

Failed assassination attempt on MacArthur (that perhaps results in a moderate to severe injury) forces him to hold off on ordering forces to continue to the Yalu or results in his replacement with a commander who isn't subordinate. At that point NK is a hollow shell that can't fight back and is used by the USSR and PRC as a satellite state that is nothing more than a buffer zone between the two blocs. The Kim family may not last the war or long after, replaced by a subservient puppet. After the USSR falls the two Koreas either reconcile and are very gradually reunified or the rump state is turned into an autonomous region of China and serves as a nice place to put prisoners.

 

[David T]

Several times I have considered the idea of stopping at the narrow neck, but the problem is that Mao had already decided on intervention before that point. Of course, if the US made clear that it would go no further, and there there could even be a rump DPRK along the Chinese border, Mao *might* reverse his decision, but I doubt it.

 

[Southpaw]

Several times I have considered the idea of stopping at the narrow neck, but the problem is that Mao had already decided on intervention before that point. Of course, if the US made clear that it would go no further, and there there could even be a rump DPRK along the Chinese border, Mao *might* reverse his decision, but I doubt it.

I'm not so sure. China had just emerged from its civil war and had been in nearly continuous conflict for thirteen years at that point, and more if you count the on-and-off pre-SJW Kuomintang-CCP conflict. A country desperately in need of rebuilding attacking the world's most powerful nation for little real benefit strikes me as extremely foolish.

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

Note that MacArthurs decision to advance north to the Yalu applied to the US/UN forces. The S Korean army had made its own decision and was attempting to pursue and destroy the NKPA & its government. True they lacked much in the way of a large field army, weapons, transport, and other infrastructure, but regiments were marching north. I've read the Chinese were fine with this, thinking the remnants of the NKPA could survive this shoestring offensive.

A larger and more capable US/UN army was different matter. Chinas government had issues with a robust hostile army parked on the edge of the industrial south Manchuria regions.

If the south Koreans army is the sole force advancing northwards then the fighting & outcomes are going to vary a bunch.

 

[RousseauX]

Several times I have considered the idea of stopping at the narrow neck, but the problem is that Mao had already decided on intervention before that point. Of course, if the US made clear that it would go no further, and there there could even be a rump DPRK along the Chinese border, Mao *might* reverse his decision, but I doubt it.

The PRC might intervene as a show of force, as their "first strike" was OTL. OTL the Chinese struck suddenly at UN forces in early November and achieved a major victory, but never followed up on it.

If the US shows no signs of further advancement in retaliation and halts at the Pyongang, imo there's a pretty good chance Mao just declares victory for Chinese security and halts further combat.

 

[Southpaw]

Everyone wins! Except Kim il-Sung!

...These two sentences make me happy

 

[troosvelt_68]

Maybe the remaining rump votes/is told to join China ?

 

[LHB]

The PRC might intervene as a show of force, as their "first strike" was OTL. OTL the Chinese struck suddenly at UN forces in early November and achieved a major victory, but never followed up on it.

They did, the problem was once they hit the mountainous regions that dominate the 38th parallel much of the PLA's war-fighting methods and tactics melted away in the face of the material superiority of the UN and US forces. When fighting in tight quarters and narrow confines like the mountains of central Korea superior firepower has a way of trumping stuff like infiltration tactics, maneuver, and ambush warfare that were all highlights of PLA strategy during the Civil War and the Sino-Japanese War. From what I understand the pivot towards human wave attacks was less based on pre-existing doctrine and was more a tactic of sheer desperation and total frustration with the situation. Unfortunately as WWI demonstrated one does not overcome strongly entrenched and armed defensive positions by throwing bare chests at it.

 

[Simon]

Chinas government had issues with a robust hostile army parked on the edge of the industrial south Manchuria regions.

I've wondered in the past if a tandem military-diplomatic solution might not of been possible. Back channel communications are made to Beijing with the quid pro quo of their refraining from any potential interventions in return for an unofficial agreement to a DMZ along the Yalu river border, the UN forces to demobilise and leave as quickly as possible once victorious, and any small number of remaining troops to not be based any further north than Kangwon, North Hwanghae and South Hwanghae provinces. Of course the big challenge would be convincing the Chinese to believe that they can trust the US.

 

[La Rouge Beret]

That's a strong possibility the question is could a nuanced discussion with Red China take place at this time?

Additionally if the PLA does not involve itself in Korea, then the positive image of the USA would still linger and create further problems for the Chinese Communist Party.

 

[Cook]

A (not very good) case could be made for not invading the North to begin with, but what possible case could be made for, having invaded North Korea and overrun Pyongyang, not completing the unification of Korea? Why would any US commander decide not to occupy the remaining territory of North Korea since the DPRK forces were so comprehensively defeated? The only justification would seem to be an impossible degree of prescience.

 

[Southpaw]

A (not very good) case could be made for not invading the North to begin with, but what possible case could be made for, having invaded North Korea and overrun Pyongyang, not completing the unification of Korea? Why would any US commander decide not to occupy the remaining territory of North Korea since the DPRK forces were so comprehensively defeated? The only justification would seem to be an impossible degree of prescience.

Perhaps have the Chinese make some overt threats, and, as mentioned above, have a PLA preliminary attack?

 

[Rich Rostrom]

Several times I have considered the idea of stopping at the narrow neck, but the problem is that Mao had already decided on intervention before that point. Of course, if the US made clear that it would go no further, and there there could even be a rump DPRK along the Chinese border, Mao *might* reverse his decision, but I doubt it.

I'd further add that while the US and UN might agree tacitly to a rump DRPK, that decision wouldn't bind the RoK, and the RoK wouldn't go along willingly.

Now let's add one point: the question should be: WI the the UN forces stop "north of Pyongyang" (but short of the Yalu)? Because the decision might have been Macarthur's to make - say if he'd been disabled by an accident or illness.

As noted, once the UN came north of the 38th parallel, Chinese intervention was just about assured.

So - Macarthur is replaced, succeeded by Ridgway, who heeds the warnings about Chinese intervention, and has the UN forces halt on a line from Hamhung along the upper Taedong to the west coast. He has them set up for defense, moves supplies and artillery north, etc.

Syngman Rhee is very much upset by this; he wants total defeat of the DPRK. Under his orders, some RoK forces advance beyond Ridgway's stop line. (Others refuse; they're getting no support for this adventure from the UN. They also halt and dig in.)

The RoK advances confirm Mao's decision to intervene.

But the UN forces are on a much better footing to meet the Chinese onslaught than OTL. The Chinese break the Taedong line, recapture Hamhung, and advance about 70 km in the east and center, but are stopped cold in the west. The Chinese suffer very heavy lossses for this limited success.

Now what? Rhee still wants to go to the Yalu. The UN, now that China has attacked, may agree. Mao may cut his losses and get out. Or the Chinese attack may be sufficiently impressive that the UN holds its ground or only pushes back to the previous stop line.

The war will in any case last well into 1951.

The RoK is larger and less damaged than OTL; its economy will be substantially bigger.

The US will be less afraid of Chinese intervention in Indochina.

 

[The Ubbergeek]

On a related note, I always wondered if China and USSR would have been fine with an United Korea who would have been more or less clearly 'neutral', even if Finlandized quite. Maybe it would have been better for somes, officially - not clearly leaning one side or the other (and we should not forget, again, that the PRC and USSR quickly didn't get chummy). A buffer state, ripe for spying and unofficial trading possibilities even perhaps.

Not sure if it's even possible and how...


(Same for Vietnam by example...)

 

[Blackfox5]

Mac doesn't necessarily need to stop and remain at his lines. He just needs to spend some time to organize a coherent advance, and the US/UN forces will be much better prepared to handle any Chinese counter-offensive. He always has the option of advancing north later to support South Korean troops taking the rest of the peninsula.