Knock Italy out of WW1

  • Thread starter Deleted member 1487
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Deleted member 1487

How do we get Italy, a member of the Allies, to make a separate peace and leave WW1? Caporetto, despite being a massive disaster, did not ultimately threaten the ability of Italy to make war. The Italians managed to salvage the situation themselves before Allied contingents even managed to make it to the front. Plus Britain and France had supplied Italy with pretty everything they needed to fight a modern war.

The effects of the exiting the fight would be huge, especially for Austria-Hungary, but it would obviously depend on when the peace occurred. I would bet that it would not be possible before 1917 at the earliest. Basically, Austria's only active front goes away and Bulgaria can be reinforced, likely allowing it to survive through 1918 (until the Germans lose that is). Also large numbers of troops can be demobilized and put to work in agriculture. But the greatest effect of all would be to allow the rail network to once again work to get food to the population centers, as OTL the bottleneck for food was not production, rather the incredibly deficient means of transportation. This might mean that AH survives in some shape instead of falling apart once it becomes apparent that the war is lost and having an allied force occupy the country with the imperial army retreating in defeat.

For Germany the effects are much smaller, but the removal of the burden of supporting AH and having the Habsburgs support them instead does help somewhat.

What does the community think?
 
If America is no threat, Ludendorff might be talked to an offensive in Italy by Wetzell (who proposed just that in 1917/18). Otherwise I can see no incentive for Germany to become active in Italy after Flitsch/Tolmein (Caporetto).
To have the Austrians be successful in 1916 would require a major miracle.
 
If you want to have Italy leave the WW1, I think your best option would be a revolution, just like OTL Russia.

OTL, the news of Caporetto defeat caused a lot of unrest among the population, already strongly proved by the war.
The possibility of a revolution was really concrete in the aftermath of Caporetto. If it didn't happen was only for the indecisions of the socialist party, which head, Turati, preferred to support the goverment rather than risk a revolution.
Having a more committed socilaist party could lead to a widespread revolt among the troops and then to a civil war, so "knocking Italy out" of WW1.

Alternatevely, you could suppose a more successful German offensive, but that would be a rather weak POD. Italians did stopped the CP offensive of Caporetto alone and the german logistic was stretched so thin that, probably, the offensive would have been stopped anyway. IRRC Rommel, in his memories, lamented how his troops were already half-famished and exhausted and he was still asked to advance.
 
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