Kistling a Different Tune: Commercial Space in an Alternate Key
With Orbital ATK working on K-1 instead of Antares/Cygnus, it looks like all those refurbished NK-33/NK-43s are going to be going to Kistler. Among those engines will be the one that caused the Orb-3 Antares failure, and looking at the K-1 I'm not led to think that it has engine-out capability, or much protection against shrapnel from catastrophic turbopump failure. So... how long before that faulty engine (or one like it) gets put on a K-1 and we get a spectacular launch failure from Kistler?
Fully Funded, Assembly Begins
The corner of Michoud Assembly Facility devoted to Kistler’s vehicles was small, dwarfed by the manufacturing complex tasked to turn out the gigantic External Tanks for the Space Shuttle program. Until very recently, it’d also been dormant, the large structures of the fuel and LOX tanks on their transport dollies standing alone and untouched for months and even years on end. On more than one occasion, it has seemed like the quiet of the crypt or a battlefield after a defeat. In the last few months, though, it’s become a hive of activity. Day by day, new components have arrived, and the concrete floors echo with the steel-toed bustle of a dozen or more technicians. The tanks already present have been checked and rechecked, and they’ve been joined by more. Smaller components fill pallets stashed on newly-sprouting racks rising towards the amber brightness of the overhead lights, and place of pride is given to the large skeletal build stands which will cradle the Launch Assist Platform and Orbital Vehicle as they’re assembled. A month ago, the smaller set of stands began to be put to work. The first tanks and intertanks were moved into place, and the assembly of structural elements has painstakingly begun. Just in the last few days, the larger build stand was judged ready, and the largest tank in the Kistler area of Michoud was moved into its embrace. The newly-delivered intertank was brought over, and the first weld completed. And then the technicians had put down their tools and carefully capped tanks, sealed any ports, and put up portable fencing around the workstations. A field day with cloths, brooms later, and a field of folding chairs take up some of the remaining open floor space near the build stands.
Today is Monday, June 25, 2008. The work has stopped, and instead of technicians there are clumps circulating in the wake of senior engineers playing tour guide. The assembly team leader has emerged from his planning office to personally lead the COTS contract manager and a small huddle of suited Canadians, representatives of the Ontario Teachers Pension Plan, as the critical stakeholders in Kistler inspect what their money is paying for. Other stockholders in Kistler and ATK rub elbows with representatives from the Louisiana congressional delegation. Press trail more junior members of the team, escorted carefully by Kistler, ATK, and NASA communications officials, asking questions and taking pictures. Finally, the events concludes with the Kistler, ATK, and NASA managers arranged at the impromptu stage, investors and politicians given a place of pride in the seats, surrounded by press and enough interested Kistler, ATK, and even general Michoud technical staff to ensure every seat in visible on the press stream is full.
“Thank you all for coming,” George French said. “We’re pleased you could make it, and to welcome you here to to Michoud. This historic facility has played a critical role in America’s lunar program as the home of Saturn V assembly, and in the Space Shuttle with the external tank. Kistler could not be more proud to have you as our partners as we begin to put together the next generation in spaceflight. Today, we’re pleased to announce two key facts: first, as of today, final assembly is officially underway on the first flight set of both of our vehicles, putting us on schedule for our first flight next fall. Second, we’re pleased to announce that all required funding to reach that point has been secured, thanks to our investment partners who are here today. We thank you for your trust, and we look forward to showing you what we can do. Thank you for your time.”
More speeches followed, but the key points had been made. And once the visitors left, the stage was cleaned up, the barriers removed, and the assembly areas carefully swept for any potential foreign object debris, the technicians would be able to resume their interrupted work of making it more than just talk. There were still months, even years of work left to do.
Today is Monday, June 25, 2008. The work has stopped, and instead of technicians there are clumps circulating in the wake of senior engineers playing tour guide. The assembly team leader has emerged from his planning office to personally lead the COTS contract manager and a small huddle of suited Canadians, representatives of the Ontario Teachers Pension Plan, as the critical stakeholders in Kistler inspect what their money is paying for. Other stockholders in Kistler and ATK rub elbows with representatives from the Louisiana congressional delegation. Press trail more junior members of the team, escorted carefully by Kistler, ATK, and NASA communications officials, asking questions and taking pictures. Finally, the events concludes with the Kistler, ATK, and NASA managers arranged at the impromptu stage, investors and politicians given a place of pride in the seats, surrounded by press and enough interested Kistler, ATK, and even general Michoud technical staff to ensure every seat in visible on the press stream is full.
“Thank you all for coming,” George French said. “We’re pleased you could make it, and to welcome you here to to Michoud. This historic facility has played a critical role in America’s lunar program as the home of Saturn V assembly, and in the Space Shuttle with the external tank. Kistler could not be more proud to have you as our partners as we begin to put together the next generation in spaceflight. Today, we’re pleased to announce two key facts: first, as of today, final assembly is officially underway on the first flight set of both of our vehicles, putting us on schedule for our first flight next fall. Second, we’re pleased to announce that all required funding to reach that point has been secured, thanks to our investment partners who are here today. We thank you for your trust, and we look forward to showing you what we can do. Thank you for your time.”
More speeches followed, but the key points had been made. And once the visitors left, the stage was cleaned up, the barriers removed, and the assembly areas carefully swept for any potential foreign object debris, the technicians would be able to resume their interrupted work of making it more than just talk. There were still months, even years of work left to do.
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Stupid Planes?
So why is this thread tagged "stupid planes' anyway? Find out...tonight!
---------- Digsby LOG, August 1, 2008 8:42 PM EST----------
e of pi: So, I'm trying to figure out this whole suborbital thing.
Brainbin--gtalk: Well, good evening to you too!
e of pi: Sorry, yeah, good evening. How're you?
Brainbin--gtalk: Bored.
Did you know today is the first time Obama has been seen with coffee since he won the nomination?
I've only read it on the last ten sites I've gone to.
e of pi: It's a bit much, I know, you'll just have to excuse us. We’re full of hope, don’t you know?
Brainbin--gtalk: I tell you.
You'll NEVER see a Canadian PM be so image-obsessed.
e of pi: Of course not, you can only make a parka so stylish.
Brainbin--gtalk: Har har.
Okay, let's circle back round here.
What about this whole suborbital thing are you trying to figure out?
You seem to understand it better than most people.
e of pi: I'm just...trying to figure out what's going on with it. I mean, compared to orbit, it's just not _that_ hard, but it's been four years since the Xprize, and it's....super slow.
Have I linked yo uthe Futron study before?
Brainbin--gtalk: Is this the one with the diagrams?
e of pi: I think it's the other one: http://www.spaceportassociates.com/pdf/tourism.pdf
Brainbin--gtalk: Oh right, the one that's 79 PAGES.
How could I forget.
e of pi: Sorry, page 10 of the PDF is the one I was thinking of.
The top graph on that page...and I guess the description of it at the bottom of page 9.
Brainbin--gtalk: Oh, a parabolic projection graph.
Funny how everyone predicts those things and they never seem to happen.
e of pi: "Suborbital space travel is a promising market — Futron's forecast for suborbital space travel projects that by 2021, over 15,000 passengers could be flying annually, representing revenues in excess of US$700 million"
I'm just trying to figure out with all that money on the table, why everyone's being so slow about it.
And then all the approaches are different, too.
Virgin's basically scaling up SpaceShipOne to make SpaceShipTwo, except that they unveiled it three years ago and they're only just now finalizing the design.
https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/content/?cid=4835
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7205445.stm
They've at rolled out White Knight Two, the carrier, but for having the space ship “60%” done in January I certainly haven’t seen much of it...
And then there’s the engine. I haven't seen anything on that since they blew one up on the stand a few years ago.
And then there's other people who aren't using a carrier at all.
XCOR's doing something smaller, like a little baby airplane with a rocket stuffed into it. They light it on the runway, and bam zap-straight to the moon.
Brainbin--gtalk: We've been over this, though.
We were supposed to have moon colonies by now.
Lost in Space was set in 1997. They were going to Alpha Centauri.
e of pi: Hey, we still might! Ares V is coming, and the latest Altair images look pretty slick.
Brainbin--gtalk: That would be nice.
Think of the advertising.
e of pi: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8AOfbnGkuGc
Brainbin--gtalk: Hey, there you go.
There's hope for you.
Futurama is back.
I mean, only in movie form, but still. They might make new episodes too.
e of pi: We can hope, we’re all doing this at Fox: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8AOfbnGkuGc
e of pi: It'll be cool to see. Maybe we can get Firefly back too--BSG is getting all set up to go out with a bang--can’t wait for Season 4.5! Maybe Sci Fi can pick it up from Fox to fill the hole? Dr. Horrible was really awesome, you know?
Brainbin--gtalk: Argh.
Yes, of course, Dr. Horrible, the latest creation by the Great and Powerful Whedon, the greatest writer in the history of the English language including Shakespeare. Spare me, I get enough of that on TVTropes. You know, there is no possible way this Dollhouse show can POSSIBLY be as good as everyone is hoping it is, you know that, right?
e of pi: We'll see.
But then there's the whole thing with Rocketplane--you know, the other half of Kistler?
Brainbin--gtalk: So wait, is that suborbital too?
e of pi: It's confusing.
They're "Rocketplane Kistler," and the Kistler part is orbital, and supposed to go the the station.
Rocketplane is supposed to be...like, a Learjet with a rocket in the back. Take off like a plane, fly up to altitude like where Virgin drops their SpaceShips, and then light it and go to space.
It sounds easy, but they've been pretty quiet. Maybe they're just busy with the orbital stuff?
I don't know, it's just a lot of variables--drop-plane or no? Where do you light the rocket?
_What_ rocket? XCOR and Rocketplane are both liquids, but Virgin's a hybrid.
Brainbin--gtalk: So wait.
It flies into the stratosphere (probably higher, I know, but roll with me here) and THEN blasts off?
e of pi: Yeah.
Just like where SpaceShip one drops of the plane.
*off
Because it's suborbital, you need a lot less speed. Like, a fifth of the velocity of orbital.
So the speed you can get from a plane is actually helpful, and the height helps too.
It wouldn't matter if it was orbital, unless it was something like Skylon.
But jets are just way better than pure rockets.
More of what I don't get--XCOR takes off on rockets the whole way and loses that benefit.
I dunno. It just seems like it's all coming so slow, I wonder why? Are they just not spending enough, or is this really hard?
And I'm looking forward a lot to a year or three when they're all flying.
Brainbin--gtalk: Or five.
Or ten.
e of pi: I don't think it's _that_ hard.
...I should really stop ranting and focus on this physics writeup, but I just needed to figure this out.
Brainbin--gtalk: Not as hard as physics, anyway.
Shudder.
It's worse than that, it's physics, Jim!
e of pi: Oh, god. Do we want to have the trailer talk again?
Brainbin--gtalk: I will concede, as pleased as I am to see Kirk back in his rightful place as the one and only Captain of the Enterprise, I am not looking forward to the next trailer.
e of pi: I don't get why they're building the ship on the ground.
Is the SIF field on? Or what?
Spaceships belong in space.
I don't know, I'll probably go see it if it gets good reviews--I saw Nemesis in theaters.
Twice.
And that was NEM.
So...we’ll see.
I’d need a pretty good reason, I think.
---------- Digsby LOG, August 1, 2008 8:42 PM EST----------
e of pi: So, I'm trying to figure out this whole suborbital thing.
Brainbin--gtalk: Well, good evening to you too!
e of pi: Sorry, yeah, good evening. How're you?
Brainbin--gtalk: Bored.
Did you know today is the first time Obama has been seen with coffee since he won the nomination?
I've only read it on the last ten sites I've gone to.
e of pi: It's a bit much, I know, you'll just have to excuse us. We’re full of hope, don’t you know?
Brainbin--gtalk: I tell you.
You'll NEVER see a Canadian PM be so image-obsessed.
e of pi: Of course not, you can only make a parka so stylish.
Brainbin--gtalk: Har har.
Okay, let's circle back round here.
What about this whole suborbital thing are you trying to figure out?
You seem to understand it better than most people.
e of pi: I'm just...trying to figure out what's going on with it. I mean, compared to orbit, it's just not _that_ hard, but it's been four years since the Xprize, and it's....super slow.
Have I linked yo uthe Futron study before?
Brainbin--gtalk: Is this the one with the diagrams?
e of pi: I think it's the other one: http://www.spaceportassociates.com/pdf/tourism.pdf
Brainbin--gtalk: Oh right, the one that's 79 PAGES.
How could I forget.
e of pi: Sorry, page 10 of the PDF is the one I was thinking of.
The top graph on that page...and I guess the description of it at the bottom of page 9.
Brainbin--gtalk: Oh, a parabolic projection graph.
Funny how everyone predicts those things and they never seem to happen.
e of pi: "Suborbital space travel is a promising market — Futron's forecast for suborbital space travel projects that by 2021, over 15,000 passengers could be flying annually, representing revenues in excess of US$700 million"
I'm just trying to figure out with all that money on the table, why everyone's being so slow about it.
And then all the approaches are different, too.
Virgin's basically scaling up SpaceShipOne to make SpaceShipTwo, except that they unveiled it three years ago and they're only just now finalizing the design.
https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/content/?cid=4835
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7205445.stm
They've at rolled out White Knight Two, the carrier, but for having the space ship “60%” done in January I certainly haven’t seen much of it...
And then there’s the engine. I haven't seen anything on that since they blew one up on the stand a few years ago.
And then there's other people who aren't using a carrier at all.
XCOR's doing something smaller, like a little baby airplane with a rocket stuffed into it. They light it on the runway, and bam zap-straight to the moon.
Brainbin--gtalk: We've been over this, though.
We were supposed to have moon colonies by now.
Lost in Space was set in 1997. They were going to Alpha Centauri.
e of pi: Hey, we still might! Ares V is coming, and the latest Altair images look pretty slick.
Brainbin--gtalk: That would be nice.
Think of the advertising.
e of pi: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8AOfbnGkuGc
Brainbin--gtalk: Hey, there you go.
There's hope for you.
Futurama is back.
I mean, only in movie form, but still. They might make new episodes too.
e of pi: We can hope, we’re all doing this at Fox: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8AOfbnGkuGc
e of pi: It'll be cool to see. Maybe we can get Firefly back too--BSG is getting all set up to go out with a bang--can’t wait for Season 4.5! Maybe Sci Fi can pick it up from Fox to fill the hole? Dr. Horrible was really awesome, you know?
Brainbin--gtalk: Argh.
Yes, of course, Dr. Horrible, the latest creation by the Great and Powerful Whedon, the greatest writer in the history of the English language including Shakespeare. Spare me, I get enough of that on TVTropes. You know, there is no possible way this Dollhouse show can POSSIBLY be as good as everyone is hoping it is, you know that, right?
e of pi: We'll see.
But then there's the whole thing with Rocketplane--you know, the other half of Kistler?
Brainbin--gtalk: So wait, is that suborbital too?
e of pi: It's confusing.
They're "Rocketplane Kistler," and the Kistler part is orbital, and supposed to go the the station.
Rocketplane is supposed to be...like, a Learjet with a rocket in the back. Take off like a plane, fly up to altitude like where Virgin drops their SpaceShips, and then light it and go to space.
It sounds easy, but they've been pretty quiet. Maybe they're just busy with the orbital stuff?
I don't know, it's just a lot of variables--drop-plane or no? Where do you light the rocket?
_What_ rocket? XCOR and Rocketplane are both liquids, but Virgin's a hybrid.
Brainbin--gtalk: So wait.
It flies into the stratosphere (probably higher, I know, but roll with me here) and THEN blasts off?
e of pi: Yeah.
Just like where SpaceShip one drops of the plane.
*off
Because it's suborbital, you need a lot less speed. Like, a fifth of the velocity of orbital.
So the speed you can get from a plane is actually helpful, and the height helps too.
It wouldn't matter if it was orbital, unless it was something like Skylon.
But jets are just way better than pure rockets.
More of what I don't get--XCOR takes off on rockets the whole way and loses that benefit.
I dunno. It just seems like it's all coming so slow, I wonder why? Are they just not spending enough, or is this really hard?
And I'm looking forward a lot to a year or three when they're all flying.
Brainbin--gtalk: Or five.
Or ten.
e of pi: I don't think it's _that_ hard.
...I should really stop ranting and focus on this physics writeup, but I just needed to figure this out.
Brainbin--gtalk: Not as hard as physics, anyway.
Shudder.
It's worse than that, it's physics, Jim!
e of pi: Oh, god. Do we want to have the trailer talk again?
Brainbin--gtalk: I will concede, as pleased as I am to see Kirk back in his rightful place as the one and only Captain of the Enterprise, I am not looking forward to the next trailer.
e of pi: I don't get why they're building the ship on the ground.
Is the SIF field on? Or what?
Spaceships belong in space.
I don't know, I'll probably go see it if it gets good reviews--I saw Nemesis in theaters.
Twice.
And that was NEM.
So...we’ll see.
I’d need a pretty good reason, I think.
Well, I was hoping it wouldn't get everyone, so feel free to chime in.
Anyway, as you may see, it's very hard to talk about Rocketplane Kistler without looking at the other side of the company--and in my opinion the one that the leadership (being from the Rocketplane Pioneer side pre-merger) actually cared more about: their suborbital tourism vehicle. (How much did they care more: Both RPK websites are still up. The Kistler website was last updated in 2013, when it migrated domains. The Rocketplane websites were updated last year to reflect the company's ongoing nominal existence.) It's easy to write off suborbital as easy and tourism as of minimal value, but RPK didn't (doesn't?) and invested a lot of effort in their plane, as silly as its goals may seem, even as the company was collapsing.
Rocketplane's vehicle is an interesting one. Much like the Kistler vehicle, it used a pretty conservative design, at least in the final iteration they were building--proven airbreathing engines for ascent to altitude and a proven rocket engine for boost using low-tech kerolox. No staging, just lighting the engine with the ability to glide back to the landing site even if the jets didn't light after descent into the atmosphere. Much like the K-1, it's a little hard to see it having problems if they can find the money. Of course, the question is if the management, being so tempted by their race with Virgin, will be inclined to spend COTS milestone money on the assembly and test of the Rocketplane and how well their ATK investment partners will take this lack of focus. I think it's something you'll be looking forward to once we check in a bit on the state of the orbital industry and the progress of Kistler's competition...
Kistler's competition? Presumably by this you mean SpaceX? I'm looking at the timestamp on that chat log and... oh no. It's time for Falcon 1 Flight 3, isn't it?
On a completely different note, it's good to see Kistler trying for the suborbital space tourism market. Efforts IOTL on that front have been disappointing, to say the least. Hopefully they can make progress on this front. Assuming you don't kill SpaceX in round 2 of COTS (which I find unlikely, considering the competition and the motivation behind COTS), they're going to gobble up a good part of the satellite launch market as they did IOTL, but they haven't got a candle to Kistler on the tourism front. Heck, it might even mean faster development on the part of Blue Origin, with stiff competition in both tourism and orbital launch. Looks like the launch market is going to be getting very interesting indeed.
On a completely different note, it's good to see Kistler trying for the suborbital space tourism market. Efforts IOTL on that front have been disappointing, to say the least. Hopefully they can make progress on this front. Assuming you don't kill SpaceX in round 2 of COTS (which I find unlikely, considering the competition and the motivation behind COTS), they're going to gobble up a good part of the satellite launch market as they did IOTL, but they haven't got a candle to Kistler on the tourism front. Heck, it might even mean faster development on the part of Blue Origin, with stiff competition in both tourism and orbital launch. Looks like the launch market is going to be getting very interesting indeed.
Would the rocketplane XP rocket elements be useable as a 3rd stage for the K-1?
And I wonder what impact it will have on SpaceX if there are less space station deliveries going to them down the road?
fasquardon
And I wonder what impact it will have on SpaceX if there are less space station deliveries going to them down the road?
fasquardon
Ha! NO! It's an airplane, a rocket powered airplane but an airplane none the less. Substantially LESS of an airplane than the X-15 which in and of itself was 'barely' capable of hypersonic speed though it was initially planned to hit around it's namesake, (aka Mach-15 well we can dream, the X-20 was named the same way
) but both of them were very much more 'plane' than 'rocket'.Not really sure at this point if there will be 'less' business for SpaceX. Might drive them to develop the heavy, but it might not.
Randy
Probably not. A market for it isn't going to magically materialize as a result of Kistler not going under. All the reasons that delayed its development IOTL are going to apply just as much here. Plus, SpaceX is in a much better position than Kistler to serve the 2010's communications satellite market, which is where the majority of their business is IOTL.
...better question than ‘why are they building it on the ground’ is ‘why did they build it in Iowa?’
It’s been years since I saw that film and only now the question occurs to me. I mean, maybe it could be elsewhere on the American plains, but still...why?
There’s a throwaway plaque in a TNG episode that names a starship as built at Baikonur, so it’s not unprecedented...but Baikonur at least has some reason to be involved. Even Montana makes sense in-canon because of Cochrane.
Eh, maybe some Archer-era Elon Musk founded a rocket company in Iowa.
Anyway, I’m liking how the pop-culture references date the posts.
It’s been years since I saw that film and only now the question occurs to me. I mean, maybe it could be elsewhere on the American plains, but still...why?
There’s a throwaway plaque in a TNG episode that names a starship as built at Baikonur, so it’s not unprecedented...but Baikonur at least has some reason to be involved. Even Montana makes sense in-canon because of Cochrane.
Eh, maybe some Archer-era Elon Musk founded a rocket company in Iowa.
Anyway, I’m liking how the pop-culture references date the posts.
The problem for the K-1 isn't just one of limited payload mass, but of incredibly limited payload volume. The OV can deploy two or three of the OTL current generation of LEO birds, but it can't hold a standard GEO bird. That said, Kistler did has a small liquid fueled upper stage designed, and it certainly didn't need the 220 kN engine to pull it off (Fun fact, Rocketplane had a loan of the RS-88 engine from NASA - the same engine that is used as the basis for the CST-100 abort motors
Kistler is going to be a preferred provider to start with as it has the unpressurized downmass capability that only the shuttle could provide (and if Kistler can actually fly by the end of 2010, then you could have the K-1 deliver an exterior ISS payload that the Shuttle brings back), if that translates into fewer station missions is something that would have to be seen. The K-1 could also, in theory, take International Standard Payload Racks both two and from the station (yet another capability that was lost with the retirement of the Shuttle).
That said, the K-1's crew capability is marginal at best (the TWR at stage sep is just 1.2-1.4, which is not good for an abort), so I'd think that SpaceX and someone else gets the Commercial Crew contract, but everything is up in the air when it comes to the second commercial cargo contract.
I think tax breaks?
I know. But it does have propellant tanks and a rocket motor. I would have thought if you reconfigured those parts into a stage, they'd be about the size of a 3rd stage.
fasquardon
To reply quickly to some of the discussion:
Ha! NO! It's an airplane, a rocket powered airplane but an airplane none the less. Substantially LESS of an airplane than the X-15 which in and of itself was 'barely' capable of hypersonic speed though it was initially planned to hit around it's namesake, (aka Mach-15 well we can dream, the X-20 was named the same way
You might be able to build a stage out of them, but it'd take a bit of work--the tanks aren't part of the vehicle's primary structure, so they'd need a new intertank, and the engine thrust is too high for a third stage with only 4.5 tons of prop aboard, so really you'd want to either derate the engine, use a smaller engine, or stretch the stage. The issue is that, as @TimothyC points out, the Kistler LV doesn't have a lot of payload volume to put a third stage into and not a lot of mass to play with for launching a stage. A stage with 4.5 tons of prop capacity would, by the time it was finished, more than entirely consume the K-1's capability. For future developments, it doesn't hurt to have experience with engines other than the NK family, but it's not immediately applicable to boosting the K-1's capability.
Woomera was planned as the initial site, and I see no likely reason for that to change. The EPA and FAA were willing to license launch operations from Nevada, but the latter appeared to need more proof before flights began--which makes sense since the corridor to ISS passes right over Salt Lake City! To quote from the in-universe ARN news article:
An e-of-pi TL [✓]
Space TL [✓]
I'm in!
Not that I always understand it all but quality work as always.
Space TL [✓]
I'm in!
Not that I always understand it all but quality work as always.