Kingdom of Finland

yourworstnightmare

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Yeah, but wouldn't the new German Empire be hungry for return of territories. Alsace- Lorraine, Eupen- Malmedy, North Sleswig, everything taken by Poland, and perhaps even Sudet and Austria.
 
No doubt that there would be some in Germany that would like everything returned but It is doubtful that that would be possible. I would think that a " Realpolitik" lookd at the situtation would take place. Germay would seek to make some changes to its borders through diplomacy but it would not be ready or willing to start a war for the territories that the French recovered from them.

As for the suddentland and Austria much would depend upon the situtation regarding the Austrian Government. Was it strong, did a restoration take place there and did the people there want to become members of the Geman Empire etc.

This might also shape germany's relationship with the Kingdom of Finland and its relationship with the Baltic States. Germany would probably be verymuch an anticommunist state and might be willing to support Finland and the St Petersburg enclave.
 

yourworstnightmare

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If all these monarchies are restored wouldn't the Central Powers be reborn, causing a second world war anyway, hope not, since the reds could use that kind of situation.
 
Not necessarily, an Austria or Hungary under a Hapsburg Like Karl would be quite Different from that of the Empire under Francis Joseph. I would tend to think that Ga Germany ruled by Louis Fredrich would be quite different from that ruled by his grandfather. He would be more like a constitutional monarchbut with slightly more powers. It would be a Germany that probably would not alienate Great Britain with a major arms race.

There would definately be issues that would cause problem that would be a result of the WWI treaties. I do feel that the existance of the Soviet Union would definatly be a factor. Germany would probaly see a role for itself in Finland , the Baltic Stastes and perhaps Romania. While an alliance might be created I am not sure that it would be the WWI Central powers all over again.
 

yourworstnightmare

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While the Austrian people was unsure if they were Austrians or Germans, the Germans, Hungarians and Bulgarians all wanted their own land back. If they can secure an alliance with Mussolini they could try to go for a rematch and take back their lands. This would of course make the Boslheviks attack their western neighbors. Stalin was an opportunist (if he's the one in charge).
 
I think that it wasn't until the rightwing parties won control of Austria and the monarchist movement started to made gains that there was the beginnings of Austrian Nationalism. I would also say that it was true that the Hungarians wanted to regain territories lost at the end of the first world war.

Part of the reason that I have the Kingdom trying to increase its population and paying attention to the security threats from the reds is the fact that the reds (soviet union) would do everything possible to regain territory from the Kingdom of Finland. This is why I believe that the Kingdom would be far more active in attempting to build a system of alliances and co-operation. It would be easy for Finland to build an alliance with Estonai as they share a lot of common interest. Other candidates would be Latvia, Poland, Germany(in my scenario the monarchy is restored) and Norway and Sweden.
 

yourworstnightmare

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Really, neither Norway nor Sweden felt threated by anyone IRL and thus remained neutral. Finland would fear the reds, and alliances with Poland and Baltic states would make sense, but the same logic as IRL would kick in; Why get involved in other countries' problems. Poland and Germany could go to war anytime, same for Poland and Lithuania. The Baltic nations were small and vunerable, why bother try to help them, when that would force resources elsewhere than the national defense.
 
While I would agree that there would be less of a reason for Norway to get involved with the creation of the Kingdom of Finland (Greater Finland) there might be more of a feeling within certain circles in Sweden to do something to insure that the soviets are kept at bay. Remember Sweden historically clashed with Russia many times in its past and the country was always a subject of distrust within the military and other segiments. Sweden would probably remain neutral but tilt toward Finland.

The Baltic States- I could see the threat posed by the Soviets as making them willing to join an alliance with this aim. Wihout a doubt the close ethnic ties between the Estonian and Finnish people would make it quite easy to do. As for the other two states I see possibilities especial if it appears that the soviets are moving in the direction of trying to reincorporate them into the Soviet Union. Liuthania in my mind has always been a question mark it could have been a part of a Kingdom of Poland or independent. If the issue of Villinus was solved it would have been natural for the Polish and Liuthanian peoples to form an alliance to face the threat from the east.

I believe that we have gone over the subject of German -Polish relations in my Kingdom of Poland Posting. In that I agreed that Posen would have to be part of Poland due to the population being majority Polish. but that Germany would want to keep all of the other territories. I thing that unless the proplem could be resolved there would always be a strain in relations between the two. An attack by the Soviets on the Baltic states or Finland would probably cause a reaction by Germany, especially if the Monarchy was restored. I am not sure if Germany would react to a soviet attack on Poland if relations were strained until it appeared that the Poles were in desperate straights.

Poland would attempt to establish a position in Belarus and the Ukraine and I would have no doubt that the Polish government would consider the Soviets to be a major threat to the existance of Poland. Thus it would more than likely be quite willing to consider an alliance with the Finns and co-operation with the Romanians.
 

yourworstnightmare

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IRL there were talks about an alliance between Poland, Finland and the Baltic states (except Lithuania) directed towards the USSR. However all the nations rejected it, since none wanted to get ivolved in other nation's troubles. Sure, just as IRL the nations bordering the USSR would fear it, but they were all selfish new national states, fearing that getting involved in foreign troubles would endanger their own national security.
 
Well this is an ATL and the Soviet Union seems to be flexing its military muscle in an effort to begin the process of reincorporating the "lost territories " back into the Soviet Union. This is whay I have the government of Finland calling a conference when the Soviets have shelled a railline running through the St Petersburg free zone (established at the end of the civil war) to Estonia.

I have little doubt that you are correct in OTL the Baltic states failed to co-operate with the end result that Stalin was able to pick them off at no cost to the Soviet Union.

In the ATL there is some realiztion that if they do not stand together they most certainly be swallowed by their eastern neighbor. In this time line the Kingdom of Finland is much bigger and has a somewhat bigger population but it is no industrial giant and it must depend upon others for more advanced weapons-tanks, At weapons, aircraft and improved artillery. That leave them with just a few choices-Sweden, Germany, Great Britain or possibly Czechoslovkia (tanks, artillery At weapons) or Poland (tanks). It would seem that the Finns might turn to their western neighbor for some of this but Germany could become a key player especially if the monarchy was re-established.

Germany might seek to regain dominace over the region and would be a natural counterweight to the Soviets. It could supply the Baltic states and Finland with all of the weapons that they might need.
 
Helsinki Conference of 1938

The Cpnference of 1938 showed how divided the western powers were with regard to the emerging Soviet threat. Norway stated its case for neutrality. Sweden showed some fexibility and williness to sell arms to its neighbor and some willingness to military co-operation but for now it would pass on a commitment to use force. The United States expressed support for the free zone but it did not feel that US vital interest were concern. Great Britain showed a willingness to stand by the free zone and the Finns . Estonia concern at the growing military threat wanted a mutual defense pact with the Finns and urged the other powers to stand by the St Petersburg Free Zone. Latvia expressed a willingness toward military co=-operation but it was unwilling to commit forces to a possible war with the Soviets. Poland agreed that there was a threat from the soviets but it had enough on its plate with the Ukraine. Italy expressed a willingness to provide additional forces for the west garrison of the St Petersburg free zone provided that Great Britain, France and Germany would also increase their forces
The French government was unwilling to increase their small military contingent. They distrusted the Italians and were still suspicious of the German Monarchy.
Germany seemed to be the only country willing to agree to help out. It had the military forces and the industrial might. Relations with Poland were on the mend after some changes on the borer.
 
The Conference of 1938 did result in the Estonian- Finland Mutual Defense Pact. The Pact pledge the two states to come to one anothers aid in the event of an attack From the USSR. A seperate agreement was signed between the two and Sweden with regard to arms purchases and co-operation.

Germany signed an agreement with the Kingdom of Finland which would result in a military mission to train the Finn in the use of new german weapons.

The Conference did have one positive effect with rergards to the St Petersburg free Zone a declaration was issued warning the soviets to respect it boundary and to allow the passage of trains through it to Estonia to go unharmed. Britain supplied the Free Russian army with 80 refurbished Vickers E tanks. The British also dispached a show the flag mission to St Petersburg lead by the Battleship Royal Soverign.
 
The after results of the conference of 1938 was that there appeared to be a lull in activity by the Soviets. The western leaders appeared to be convinced that their warning to the USSR had worked. However, the Finnish Military was not so sure that that was the case. The Luftwaffe had been allowed to establish a secret unit within Finland. Sationed at one of the Finnish Air Forces bases was an aerial intelligence Unit of the Luftwaffe. This unit would take off from Finland and fly deep into Russia taking aerial photographs. It would then return to Finland where the film would be developed and copies would be dispatched to the Finnish Defense Ministry and to Berlin.

The German Government had also been carrying out recon missions from East Prussia into the USSR . It had also observed Polish-Belorussian and Ukrainian Positions. But what they found to be even more interesting was a massive build up of the Red Army. It appeared that the Soviets were preparing for a major military conflict with the aims of restoring the borders closer to where they would be in OTL in 1938.
 
Finnish intelligence had been carefully studying the composition of Soviet forces in the area. Aerial intelligence missions by the Luftwaffe had reassured the Finns that an offensive in the north was unlikely yet it was noted that Red Army forces in the north were larger than in 1937.

The Luftwaffe had provided intelligence to the Abwehr that reinforced the conclusion that the USSR was about to launch a major offensive to retake the Ukraine. While relations with Poland had improved somewhat there was an air of distrust between the two. The German Attache in Romania let his contact in the Romanian Army know that something big was about to happen in the Ukraine.
 

yourworstnightmare

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Wouldn't Germany be better up betraying her eastern allies and carve the world up with the Soviets?? If not, I doubt the USSR would do anything, they always feared a united west, and only expanded when the western powers fought each other.
 
My thinking in this is that the German government was in the restored Monarchy very anticommunist. However, relations with Poland remained strained to an extend and thus there was no offical that was willing to warm the Poles. However, with Germany receiving oil from Romania elements in the German intelligence community were willing to give the Romanians a heads up.

With the French unwilling to commite themselves to the defense of the St Petersburg Protective Zone and the British facing a budgetary strain this left Germany as the one big power that the Finns, Estonians and Latvians could count on. I suspect that Germany will play a wait and see game regarding the Kingdom of the Ukraine, Belorussia and Poland.I think that if war breaks out I may spin it off into a new posting or return to the Kingdom of Poland Posting.
 
The attention of the Finnish government was firmly set on the defences of the Finnish frontier and any threat that might come from the Red Army. The Kingdom had deceided that it would turn to Germany for support as the British seemed totally unwilling to sign an agreement that woul obiligate Britain to the protection of the St Peterburg free zone.

Since the world's attention had been firmly locked on St Petersburg no one , other than some Luftwaffe personnel, noticed what was happening in the south. Comrad Stalin had approved a planned designed to restore the lost providences to the Soviet Empire. The T-26, BT-5/7s had been moving for months in the greatest assembly of the Red army since the Civil War.
 
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