King Theodore's Corsica
- Thread starter Carp
- Start date
@Shnurre estimated that East Prussia's population was in the ballpark of 700k, and from what I can tell by some cursory searching Electoral Saxony had just shy of 1.7 million people around that same time, which is about a 40% increase in population (looking just at hereditary lands, not Poland). Strength, however, is obviously much more than raw population numbers, otherwise late 18th century Poland wouldn't have been such a pushover. Saxony suffers from both poor leadership and a ruined economy. The costs of war and the extravagance of the court meant that the Saxon army, which reached a peak of around 30,000 men in the 1730s, had declined to 21,000 or so by the time of the Prussian invasion. The country has also been absolutely devastated by the recent war, much of which was fought in Saxon territory by armies who lived off the land (and Frederick was particularly cruel to the electorate, forcing Saxony to bear much of his war costs and ordering the country to be plundered in a manner that even some of his own generals found excessive). East Prussia adds some welcome population and income, but that province was also occupied during the war and used for the benefit of the Russian army.
The developments of TTL's Four Years' War may be good for the Polish state and the Wettin house in the long term, although I suspect that depends a great deal on whether Poland can be "reformed" or whether Russian and Austrian meddling keeps it from being anything but a millstone about the king's neck. It is certain, however, that Saxony is not going to suddenly transform into a major power in the near future. A long road of recovery lies ahead. Better leadership would also be helpful, and the Wettins might get it soon - Augustus's son Friedrich Christian seems to have had the makings of a prudent monarch, but he died of smallpox scarcely two months into his reign, a fate that he need not suffer ITTL.
formion
Banned
I don't know much on the topic, but from my superficial knowledge it seems that Saxony was quite mismanaged. The Wettins had the land with the greatest mining tradition in Europe. Said mineral resources included silver, lead and tin. Saxony was one of the most urbanized regions of the HRE. For 50 years they had almost a monopoly on porcelain production, at a time when porcelain was all the rage and every noble in Europe invested in a prestigious set. The Wettins seem not to grasp the potenti
al of Saxony. So, yes a capable monarch has a great economic base to build upon.
I wonder whether it is possible to force enclosures in Ducal Prussia now that they are a Wettin fief and turn the province into a model agricultural economy for the rest of the realm. Enclosures accompanied by the introduction of dutch/english clover and turnip husbandry may transform the Duchy. I mention specifically cattle raising because the combination of prussian marshland, english agricultural expertise and enclosures can be great for cattle raising. The political aspect of it is that the Polish magnates can sell wheat not just to Dutch and English traders in Danzig but also to the Wettin lands for livestock feed. That's another link between the Crown and the magnates.
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That was basically my thought when I gave them Prussian Gelders in the first place - it’s a minor bit of territory, but it’s something Austria can claim it has actually gained rather than just reclaimed. But the Netherlands was not exactly Austria’s most beloved province, and adding another little disconnected territory to this region is not really in harmony with Kaunitz’s policy (that is, consolidating Austria’s German and Catholic core).
Furthermore, as @Falecius pointed out, this conquest might be poorly received by France. France, after all, gained nothing in the war; maybe that’s understandable if Austria merely reclaims its old lands, but if Austria is actually winning new territory in the Netherlands, the French might reasonably expect some compensation for their trouble. This puts the Austrians in a difficult position: They can either give the French nothing, possibly straining the alliance, or they can give them some compensatory piece of the Netherlands (but if they do that, what was the point in taking Gelders anyway?). Upon further thought it seems to me that Gelders just adds an unwelcome complication, particularly given that the TTL treaty was something of a rush job, pushed by France so that Austrian forces would be available to help them against the Anglo-Hanoverians. Besides, reclaiming old territory is still a big win for Austria, and Prussia is still diminished relative to its pre-Frederician borders by cessions to Russia, Saxony, and Sweden.
On a semi-related note, I must confess that the OTL coalition plans for Prussian Westphalia are a bit mysterious to me. The Elector Palatine had claims on Cleves and Mark, and most discussions of a total Franco-Austrian victory assume that they would annex them from Prussia. The Palatinate, however, was not a very significant participant in the war. They supplied France with some 6,000 men in exchange for a subsidy (and a smaller force served with the Reichsarmee), but when the contract expired at the end of 1758 it was not renewed, apparently because the Palatinate soldiers, who generally sympathized with the Prussians more than the Austrians and French, proved to be more trouble than they were worth. If the Third Silesian War ended quickly, in 1757 or 1758, then perhaps the rather significant cessions of the Prussian Rhineland to the Palatinate make sense. But in any Prussian defeat scenario after 1759, it seems like a reward all out of proportion to the Palatinate’s actual contribution. The only real argument for it would be the further spoliation of Prussia - and maybe for Vienna, that was enough.
In the long term a Franco Austrian alliance makes too much sense for the two of them (assuming they can maintain a modus vivendi) and is too much of a nightmare for... pretty much every one else. I suspect Vienna won't be getting Venice TTL, if only because the Brits will be trying their damnedest to limit the Franco-Austrian alliance from being an absolute hegemony.
The big question is whether Saxony, in the long run, can fulfill a role similar to Prussia- post 30 years war, Germany IMHO is always going to tend towards a bipolarity (and even before that, the Medieval German kingdom tended to be fairly multipolar), and Saxony could fill the role of leading Prussian/north German power almost as well, indeed more naturally, than Brandenburg (which was by itself not a particularly rich or powerful state, indeed up to 1866 was considered a weaker great power).
The big question is whether Saxony, in the long run, can fulfill a role similar to Prussia- post 30 years war, Germany IMHO is always going to tend towards a bipolarity (and even before that, the Medieval German kingdom tended to be fairly multipolar), and Saxony could fill the role of leading Prussian/north German power almost as well, indeed more naturally, than Brandenburg (which was by itself not a particularly rich or powerful state, indeed up to 1866 was considered a weaker great power).
Perhaps (as once again these are terms hashed out between a couple great powers and then revealed as a fait accompli for everyone else to deal with) the treaty simply does not concern itself with Prussian Westphalia and the Palatine and they themselves have to enforce whatever terms they were promised? A classic HRE-ism, leave it to the actors themselves to feud and skirmish and apply centuries-long legal suits.
Thank you for the map! It seems like you desided to pick exactly the red line from the map I have provided. The blue line would probably be Russian first demands, but overall too ambitious.
So Russia takes Courland, Polish Livonia, Polotsk, Vitebsk and Mstislavl voivodeships and part of Minsk voivodeship on the left bank of Dnieper.
Come on, guys, why are you all discounting Prussia (we should probably call it Brandenburg now)? Sure, it suffered a severe blow, but it’s not like it has suddenly lost all importance and turned into Reuss or Waldeck. While it is not a Great Power anymore, it is still the primary power in HRE. Yes, now it is much closer to Bavaria and Saxony than to Austria, but I would argue it is still the strongest state in HRE (other than Austria that is).
Obviously, Brandenburg lost almost a half of its population, but it still has more than 2 million people (probably around 2.1-2.2 millions). IOTL in 1806 the territories that Brandenburg retained ITTL had 2.7 million people (source; since it is a detailed description one can account for Brandenburg in TTL borders). In 1740 the population of Prussia was 2.4 millions, that included East Prussia, but did not include East Frisia that Brandenburg retains by peace treaty (of course in also does not include Silesia). Cottbus and Polish corridor that Saxony took as well as Usedom and Wolin that Sweden took are important strategically, but do not have a substantial population (less than 100 thousand all combined).
So yes, Brandenburg is weaker, than it was in 1740, but just barely (loosing Silesia hurts a lot, but then again 1740-Prussia did not have Silesia; loosing East Prussia is important more in a sense that without it Brandenburg would probably not be able to expand much in the East). Also note that judging by the war description in the last update, the territories that Brandenburg retained were relatively untouched by war (compared to Saxony, Bohemia and Silesia). And of course Brandenburg has a very effective civil administration, an extremely strong army and the ability to punch above its weight (that IOTL Brandenburg-Prussia proved time after time again for centuries after the times of Great Elector).
The only states inside HRE that we can compared to Brandenburg are Saxony and Bavaria.
Saxony has now roughly the same population as Brandenburg, but the main territory of the Electorate is completely devastated by war(as @Carp argued in post #2162). Also as @formion mentioned it was badly mismanaged IOTL and continuously punched below its weight. While this might change ITTL, it would probably just normalize the situation and not elevate Saxony to Brandenburg-Prussia level of management.
Bavaria had 3.5 millions in 1816 (source: Zahlen nach Angelow, Deutscher Bund, S. 117.) but that is after the Electorate of Bavaria was doubled in size after the Napoleonic Wars (in return Bavaria has lost Berg, Julich and some other territories in the Rheinland, but as of 1760 those are controlled by Palatinate that was a separate state IOTL until the war of Bavarian Succession) and that also includes Bavarian Palatinate (that is again not controlled by the Bavaria in 1760). Thus around 1760 the Electorate of Bavaria probably has around 1.5-1.8 millions of people and not as effective army and administration compared to Brandenburg-Prussia.
One can argue that while Brandenburg is now technically in the same league as Saxony and Bavaria, it is stronger than both and thus it is still the strongest power in HRE after Austria.
Hannover for comparison has less than 1 million people (it had 1.3 millions in 1816 - same source - and that is including amter Aurich and Osnabruck and bishopric of Hildesheim that Hannover received after the Congress of Vienna). While the personal union with Great Britain almost guaranties that Hannover would not be completely obliterated, I doubt the Parliament would spend any substantial money on Hannover's expansion
Now let us look where Brandenburg can expand ITTL.
The east avenue of expansion is blocked for Brandenburg or at least became much more complicated. My take is that Brandenburg would concentrate on expansion in North-Western Germany and, if right opportunity arises, may try to reduce Saxony. Ironically Austria might take much less issue with TTL Brandenburg expansion than it did IOTL with Prussian one: while IOTL Prussia was since mid-XVIII century a clear challenger for Austrian dominance in HRE (and additionally these bastards took Silesia, how dare them!), ITTL Brandenburg “was shown its place”, gave back Silesia and does not have a special status of kingdom (Saxony may now look more threatening: not only it is a kingdom now, it is also in a personal union with PLC; while in practice it doesn’t do much to make Saxony stronger, it does appear scarier than the newly reduced Brandenburg).
The first possible target for such an expansion is Swedish Pomerania: if Peter III tries to enforce his claims on Sweden, he given his OTL-prussophilia might ally Brandenburg (which is anyway very useful in order to reach Swedish German holdings and later Schleswig-Holstein by land). If everything happens in this way, Brandenburg can be rewarded with Swedish Pomerania after the war.
Next interesting situation would appear if Britain and France are indeed headed to a quick rematch. As @Carp wrote Austria would probably be allied to France. Brandenburg in such a scenario can either jump on the continental ship and try to annex some parts of Hannover. Or, if Russia is British ally, Brandenburg may join them (if Saxony is allied to France, it could be crushed by Russia and Brandenburg from both directions, if it is allied to Britain or neutral, Brandenburg is rather secure from Austria).
Lastly if Bavarian succession crisis happens as per OTL, Brandenburg again either ally Saxony and try to grab some Rheinish territories of Palatinate or attack Saxony and grab some part of it.
While last two scenarios are probably too far down the road and too speculative, it shows that Brandenburg has some very interesting options.
To sum up: yes Brandenburg has suffered a severe blow and would probably not attempt to fight France, Austria, Russia and Saxony in the same time on its own anytime soon. It is still, however, a primary German power, arguably stronger than any German state other than Austria. Of course now Brandenburg has a lot less resources than Prussia had IOTL and probably it would not survive another crushing defeat as a major power.
But Brandenburg may well bounce back and become the hegemon of Germany or at least of Northern Germany (the last one looks more plausible but the first one is not impossible). Obviously it is up to @Carp what he wants to do with Germany but I personally would welcome a scenario with Northern Germany ruled from Berlin, Austria having larger German-speaking holdings and possibly one or several smaller German states between them and in South-Western Germany
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I agree that Prussia remains the most powerful non-Austrian German state. The country was certainly plundered (particularly Pomerania by the Russians) and Berlin was sacked by Browne's unruly troops, but Saxony got it far worse (and Bavaria still hasn't recovered from the WAS). To my mind, the central question for Prussia at this point is one of leadership. The update said only that Frederick was succeeded by "his young nephew," without specifying who. That's because Frederick's actual nephew and successor, Frederick William II, was born in 1744, 8 years after our POD. A son of the late Prince Augustus William (Frederick's brother) does indeed reign as elector of Brandenburg ITTL, but even if he also happens to be named Frederick William he may or may not resemble him in personality. Prussia has major institutional advantages, but the state's leader does matter.
For the time being Prince Henry rules as the electoral regent. He's a good general and presumably a competent ruler, but he was always more cautious than Frederick, and that caution is likely to be heightened by the severe check which Brandenburg has recently suffered. Even if the opportunity emerges to ally with the Russians and seize Swedish Pomerania, I'm unsure if Prince Henry would really be bold enough to seize it in the same way Frederick certainly would have. In any case his regency will last only until the king reaches majority, and then Brandenburg's policy is an open question.
The other electorates are in less advantageous positions. Something could certainly be done with Bavaria and the Palatinate (particularly if a ruler manages to inherit both, as happened in 1777), but even with a hyper-competent "Wittelsbach Frederick" who devoted himself solely to state revenue and military pursuits I rather doubt the Wittelsbachs could take on Prussia without outside help. They certainly demonstrated themselves to be useless in the WAS and SYW; IOTL the French contracted Bavarian and Palatine auxiliary armies in the SYW, but their units were poor quality, under strength, and plagued by low morale (as they sympathized more with the Prussians than the French). France sent them home at the end of 1758 and didn't bother to renew their contracts. As for Hanover, it's impossible to imagine it being a German protagonist until female succession in Britain breaks the personal union.
For the time being Prince Henry rules as the electoral regent. He's a good general and presumably a competent ruler, but he was always more cautious than Frederick, and that caution is likely to be heightened by the severe check which Brandenburg has recently suffered. Even if the opportunity emerges to ally with the Russians and seize Swedish Pomerania, I'm unsure if Prince Henry would really be bold enough to seize it in the same way Frederick certainly would have. In any case his regency will last only until the king reaches majority, and then Brandenburg's policy is an open question.
The other electorates are in less advantageous positions. Something could certainly be done with Bavaria and the Palatinate (particularly if a ruler manages to inherit both, as happened in 1777), but even with a hyper-competent "Wittelsbach Frederick" who devoted himself solely to state revenue and military pursuits I rather doubt the Wittelsbachs could take on Prussia without outside help. They certainly demonstrated themselves to be useless in the WAS and SYW; IOTL the French contracted Bavarian and Palatine auxiliary armies in the SYW, but their units were poor quality, under strength, and plagued by low morale (as they sympathized more with the Prussians than the French). France sent them home at the end of 1758 and didn't bother to renew their contracts. As for Hanover, it's impossible to imagine it being a German protagonist until female succession in Britain breaks the personal union.
formion
Banned
Regarding proto-industrialization in Germany (late 18th- early 19th century) here is an interesting source: http://www.econ.cam.ac.uk/people-files/faculty/sco2/full-texts/Ogilvie-1996-Beginnings.pdf
It seems that Silesia had an important linen industry, along with mining and ironworking. The coal and iron of Silesia are well known, but I think that at the period we examine textiles are more important. It's to see the industrial development of Silesia now that belongs in the same political entity as Bohemia. Before the prussian annexation, Silesia and Bohemia acted as a single textile region. Between the two regions. the Habsburgs may possess the greatest proto-industrial entity in continental Europe. However, for this to happen, there must be a pro-industry lobby in the Vienna court.
It seems that Silesia had an important linen industry, along with mining and ironworking. The coal and iron of Silesia are well known, but I think that at the period we examine textiles are more important. It's to see the industrial development of Silesia now that belongs in the same political entity as Bohemia. Before the prussian annexation, Silesia and Bohemia acted as a single textile region. Between the two regions. the Habsburgs may possess the greatest proto-industrial entity in continental Europe. However, for this to happen, there must be a pro-industry lobby in the Vienna court.
They also have most of the other proto-industrial region (Wallonia). Add two prosperous area such as Flanders and Lombardy (though both way past their prime, they remained significantly rich) and the Habsburg realm a a whole could have potential. True, there are some serious obstacles in the way (general neglect of the Low Countries - which are also hamstrung by Dutch control of the Scheldt estuary, preventing Antwerp to reach its full potential - geographical disconnect between the more developed areas, policy priorities far from interested in any proto-industrialisation, almost nonexistent naval presence).
formion
Banned
The Seven Provinces are past their prime at this point. Amsterdam may be a significant financial center, but it has lost the geostrategic clout it had 60 years ago. I can easily see a stable Austria to disregard the dutch wishes if Vienna decides that Flanders can be once again a cash cow.
Brandeburg will need decades to become again a viable threat. As the author has mentioned above, Bavaria is not a threat. Saxony/Poland has a lots of internal issues to solve before they become a potential threat. If France maintains for some years a friendly or at least neutral disposition towards Austria, then Vienna is free to bully the Netherlands around in the matter of the Scheldt estuary.
As the British didn't have the gains of OTL, it seems possible to have a new Anglo-French War in the next decade or so. In such occasion, Vienna would be more or less free to build an East Indian Company as in OTL, apply pressure to the Dutch, interfere with the Bavarian Succession etc. I doubt however that this window of opportunity can remain open for long, certainly no more than a couple decades.
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Just want to say that this is probably one of my favorite TLs on this site. I've really enjoyed seeing Theodore go from being some wanderer to a semi-recognized king.
welcome aboard the Ted Train! There are may be stops and stations along the way but we'll reach the destination eventually!
Ehhhh, I am a loyal and fervent supporter of His Grace King Theodore I. But I would still say he is "semi" recognized among the European nobility. Yes Britain, France, Austria, Savoy, the Netherlands, the Italian minors and even some German minors recognize Corsican independence, with Theodore as it's head of state. But in no means do I think that Theodore's position of king is by any means recognized with any iron authority either legally, culturally, or militarily by the European nobility. He's an upstart minor noble who's got himself a crown on a backward little island. It wouldn't take much for any one of the great powers to unilaterally invade and shut down Theodore's great act. The Corsican state, and its position as a proper kingdom needs a lot more protection and backing before we so quickly remove the "semi" from our minds.