King Sebastian I of Portugal captured instead of killed

Good side: no Philip II on the Portuguese throne. Better for Portugal who may avoid their Asian possession being lost to the Dutch (not a guarantee though). But the ransom will break the Portuguese economy.

Over all, Portugal might be better off in history. Probably looking more like the Dutch Colonial Empire + Brazil and African possessions.
 
The biggest implications would be no Iberian Union and possibly no Dutch colonial empire, at least in the near future, but certainly not at the expense of Portugal. This also delays English colonial expansions. Even with the possibility of bankrupting itself to pay the ransoms, Portugal will be in a much better state than it was by the end of the 16th century and first half of the 17th.
 
The biggest implications would be no Iberian Union and possibly no Dutch colonial empire, at least in the near future, but certainly not at the expense of Portugal. This also delays English colonial expansions. Even with the possibility of bankrupting itself to pay the ransoms, Portugal will be in a much better state than it was by the end of the 16th century and first half of the 17th.

Indeed. Suffering for 30-50 years (if it isn't much of stretch) but still keeping the important parts of the world trade is better. Although it is not a given if the Dutch will give up on the Portuguese. They weren't too happy either with the Portuguese dominating the Eastern Trade. Spain boycotting the Dutch is what helped the Dutch more.
 
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