King Olaf survives and the Kalmar Union expands....

This is a first post in pre-1900 for me so bear with me.

The POD has been discussed before, but there it is. We have a Norwegian King of Scandinavia that we did not get OTL. Following the coronation of King Olaf and the formation f the Kalmar Union the possibilities are open.

Lets assume that King Olaf maries into one of the most powerfull swedish families forming a true interscandinavian dynasty. Thus, the assumption is (to the extent possible, lets try to keep this assumption seperatefrom the discussion on the points below) that we this way get a internally stable Kalmar union.

What would this Union do from here?

Consolidate against Finland/Russia?

The Baltics?

The Hanseatic states?

Alternatively, King Olaf with a norwegian descendant could be more inclined to look at the Atlantic where Britain is in the way and Danish lands a few hundred years earlier?
 

B-29_Bomber

Banned
Consolidate against Finland/Russia?

The Baltics?

The Hanseatic states?

1a) Finland already a part of Sweden.

1b) Russia, by the time the Kalmar Union has consolidated itself the Russians will be a united realm and be well out of their reach. Hell, they'd find it difficult to hold Sweden's OTL eastern holdings.

2) Doable but they'll have competition with the PLC and, eventually, Russia.

3) Doable but they'll have to deal with the HRE.


Britain is in the way and Danish lands a few hundred years earlier?

No. Just no.
 
1a) Finland already a part of Sweden.

1b) Russia, by the time the Kalmar Union has consolidated itself the Russians will be a united realm and be well out of their reach. Hell, they'd find it difficult to hold Sweden's OTL eastern holdings.

2) Doable but they'll have competition with the PLC and, eventually, Russia.

3) Doable but they'll have to deal with the HRE.

No. Just no.
1a was to mean in Finland against Russia.
1b, didn't a non unified sweden succeed here?
2) maybe we are a bit early, but Denmark did that under the waldemars
3) fight and lose they did OTL.., but not united
 
It is really important to remember that Olaf, although son of a King of Norway, was also the legitimate heir to the Kingdom of Sweden. He was part of the Bjelbo dynasty who actually started out as Kings of Sweden so he doesn't need to marry into the Swedish nobility to be accepted as one of them.

This was actually one of the main problems that Margrete faced when her son died. one of the preconditions before she could be declared Sovereign Lady was that she needed to find an heir with the blood of the Swedish, Norwegian and Danish royal houses - which is why she brought in Erik of Pommerania who had all of that.

Firstly the Kalmar Union is always going to have to fight the Hanseatic League if it is to have any sort of freedom to act elsewhere. This is going to be priority 1, and the Hanseatic League is likely to start their opposition before Olaf even touches the Swedish throne.

Next would probably be the Baltics, which are really the natural next step for any Scandinavian kingdom. The Teutonic Order is about to run into the Battle of Grunwald so there are definitely plenty of opportunities there.

Personally, with my TL I went with an English marriage for Olaf because the rational behind Erik's marriage to Phillippa of Lancaster still holds water twenty years earlier. The English really are logical allies in much of the Kalmar Union's early struggles. They might do something in Scotland or Ireland, but really they are going to be way too busy with the Hanseatic League and the Baltic to do much else.

Russia was a backwater at this point in time and there really isn't much of a reason to get involved there for the Kalmar Union.
 
It is really important to remember that Olaf, although son of a King of Norway, was also the legitimate heir to the Kingdom of Sweden. He was part of the Bjelbo dynasty who actually started out as Kings of Sweden so he doesn't need to marry into the Swedish nobility to be accepted as one of them.

This was actually one of the main problems that Margrete faced when her son died. one of the preconditions before she could be declared Sovereign Lady was that she needed to find an heir with the blood of the Swedish, Norwegian and Danish royal houses - which is why she brought in Erik of Pommerania who had all of that.

Firstly the Kalmar Union is always going to have to fight the Hanseatic League if it is to have any sort of freedom to act elsewhere. This is going to be priority 1, and the Hanseatic League is likely to start their opposition before Olaf even touches the Swedish throne.

Next would probably be the Baltics, which are really the natural next step for any Scandinavian kingdom. The Teutonic Order is about to run into the Battle of Grunwald so there are definitely plenty of opportunities there.

Personally, with my TL I went with an English marriage for Olaf because the rational behind Erik's marriage to Phillippa of Lancaster still holds water twenty years earlier. The English really are logical allies in much of the Kalmar Union's early struggles. They might do something in Scotland or Ireland, but really they are going to be way too busy with the Hanseatic League and the Baltic to do much else.

Russia was a backwater at this point in time and there really isn't much of a reason to get involved there for the Kalmar Union.
So basically a United Scandinavia could screen off Russia then move towards the same goals as Denmark IOTL, potentially meeting these goals In this ATL?
Britain the most useful ally. Why?
 
So basically a United Scandinavia could screen off Russia then move towards the same goals as Denmark IOTL, potentially meeting these goals In this ATL?
Britain the most useful ally. Why?

Basically yes.

The English can provide a great deal of naval assisstance against the Hanseatic states and don't have any clear overlapping spheres of influence with the Scandinavians. They are close enough to be useful allies militarily, but far enough away and focused on France to hit the sweet spot between useful and not a rival, which is the case with basically every other neighbor the Scandinavians have.
 
Britain the most useful ally. Why?
This is pre union so England would be a natural ally if the Kalmar resume Norway's antagonism against Scotland.
Of course they could continue rapprochement with Scotland and thus ally with them and France against England.
A lot will depend on economic gains versus losses. I think the English were expanding into Baltic trade at this time so an English alliance could be profitable to both sides.
 
It is really important to remember that Olaf, although son of a King of Norway, was also the legitimate heir to the Kingdom of Sweden. He was part of the Bjelbo dynasty who actually started out as Kings of Sweden so he doesn't need to marry into the Swedish nobility to be accepted as one of them.

This was actually one of the main problems that Margrete faced when her son died. one of the preconditions before she could be declared Sovereign Lady was that she needed to find an heir with the blood of the Swedish, Norwegian and Danish royal houses - which is why she brought in Erik of Pommerania who had all of that.

Firstly the Kalmar Union is always going to have to fight the Hanseatic League if it is to have any sort of freedom to act elsewhere. This is going to be priority 1, and the Hanseatic League is likely to start their opposition before Olaf even touches the Swedish throne.

Next would probably be the Baltics, which are really the natural next step for any Scandinavian kingdom. The Teutonic Order is about to run into the Battle of Grunwald so there are definitely plenty of opportunities there.

Personally, with my TL I went with an English marriage for Olaf because the rational behind Erik's marriage to Phillippa of Lancaster still holds water twenty years earlier. The English really are logical allies in much of the Kalmar Union's early struggles. They might do something in Scotland or Ireland, but really they are going to be way too busy with the Hanseatic League and the Baltic to do much else.

Russia was a backwater at this point in time and there really isn't much of a reason to get involved there for the Kalmar Union.

The problem with Philippa of Lancaster (Henry IV's sister) was that she had been married off to King John of Portugal months before Olaf's death IOTL. Her father, John of Gaunt, was trying to push his claim to the Castilian throne and needed an alliance/peace treaty with Portugal far more than he needed one with Denmark-Norway. But I do agree with the idea of an alliance with England, which is why in my attempted ATL on the subject, I had Olaf's son marry Philippa of England (Henry IV's daughter and Eric of Pomerania's OTL first wife). Or another possibility could be Philippa's older sister, Blanche.

At the time of Olaf's death in 1387, the two most eligible bachelorettes which I know of are Sophia, daughter of Vytautas, after he becomes Grand Duke of Lithuania, and Lucia Visconti of Milan. The former to form an alliance/counterbalance to both the Teutonic Order and the Kingdom of Poland, and the latter for a potentially large dowry, which the Visconti women were apparently famous for.

EDIT: Or, if we're going for a Scottish alliance, maybe Margaret or Mary, the elder daughters of King Robert III of Scotland.

I also agree with expansion into the Baltics. Valdemar IV of Denmark, Olaf's grandfather, may have sold the Duchy of Estonia, but I'm not sure if he and his family ever gave up their claim to it. I could also see them going for Livonia, and possibly Courland if Poland doesn't take it first.

The problem with war against the Hanseatic League is that it would disrupt Sweden's iron ore trade with the continent, which apparently is one of the reasons why some of the Kalmar Union rulers were unpopular with the Swedes.
 
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The problem with Philippa of Lancaster (Henry IV's sister) was that she had been married off to King John of Portugal months before Olaf's death IOTL. Her father, John of Gaunt, was trying to push his claim to the Castilian throne and needed an alliance/peace treaty with Portugal far more than he needed one with Denmark-Norway. But I do agree with the idea of an alliance with England, which is why in my attempted ATL on the subject, I had Olaf's son marry Philippa of England (Henry IV's daughter and Eric of Pomerania's OTL first wife). Or another possibility could be Philippa's older sister, Blanche.

At the time of Olaf's death in 1387, the two most eligible bachelorettes which I know of are Sophia, daughter of Vytautas, after he becomes Grand Duke of Lithuania, and Lucia Visconti of Milan. The former to form an alliance/counterbalance to both the Teutonic Order and the Kingdom of Poland, and the latter for a potentially large dowry, which the Visconti women were apparently famous for.

EDIT: Or, if we're going for a Scottish alliance, maybe Margaret or Mary, the elder daughters of King Robert III of Scotland.

I also agree with expansion into the Baltics. Valdemar IV of Denmark, Olaf's grandfather, may have sold the Duchy of Estonia, but I'm not sure if he and his family ever gave up their claim to it. I could also see them going for Livonia, and possibly Courland if Poland doesn't take it first.

The problem with war against the Hanseatic League is that it would disrupt Sweden's iron ore trade with the continent, which apparently is one of the reasons why some of the Kalmar Union rulers were unpopular with the Swedes.

The iron and copper sales were important, yes, but far more important is that the Hansa controls the Lüneburg salt mines, from which the Swedes get nearly all their salt to preserve fish and meat over the winter. Sweden had close trade with the Hansa and very few grievances while Denmark and the Hansa feuded over nothern Germany and the Danish herring trade (a big income for the Hansa). The Hansa has the power and the economical means to attempt to break the Kalmar Union apart - it is what they did OTL, after all, ledning Gustav Eriksson (Vasa) artillery, money and ships to take Stockholm and Kalmar from the unionists.

England's naval power in this era is severely limited, especially compared to that of Lübeck and the rest of the Hansa.

For the Kalmar Union to work out, you need to drop the Oldenburgs and the Mecklenburgs and their claim to northern German territory for something local that understands the local circumstances, which neither the Oldenburgs or the Mecklenburgs did. You probably need the Danes to keep Estonia so Sweden and Denmark get a mutual enemy in the Livonian Order and Novgorod (later Russia) and you probably need to stop the enserfing of the Danish peasants to keep Denmark and Sweden similar enough to be able to work together.

Any war that the Danes fight in northern Germany or against the Hansa are going to see the Swedes paying war taxes and having their copper and iron trade disrupted and the salt trade stopped, which looks like they pay and suffer for no gain.
 
The main problem that would need to be over-come would be the different ambitions between Denmark and Sweden. Denmark's interests were south in North Germany, while Sweden's interests were focused to the east. Norway's interests were to it's possessions to the west such as Greenland, Iceland, and the Scottish islands and retaining them but since Norway was hit rather hard with the black death, it's nobility pretty much ceased to exist. The union would need to find some way to have a balance of direction towards their ambitions. The Union and Novgorod had already established spheres of influence in Finland (Kola peninsula and Kariela).

If you can make the wars against Hansa shorter and you know.. actually win them then it's possible to expand in that direction but it was an issue where constant wars were fought against them IOTL and trade exports pretty much ground to a halt since Hansa had control over the Baltic trade routes.
 
The Kalmar Union was just "these countries happen to have the same king" it was a personal union, not a dynastic one, and it was by far not even anything close to the UK in being a union on constituent countries in one nation. AH.com has a poor track record and unhealthy obsession with the Kalmar Union.
 
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