King Louis Philippe Egalité

IR? War of 1st Coalition will end up being the War of French Succession. Providing France is willing to compromise in Flanders I think they can win such a war - probably end up with minor gains such as Ostend to Namur. Provided Antwerp isn't French I think the British will be satisfied. They may even accept a French Brussels but if that happens I think annexation of the rump Austrian Netherlands by Holland is likely.

There just isn't the popular support necessary for a civil war between Louis Phillippe and the Jacobins and the Bourbons. And foreign intervention without popular support ended badly for the absolute monarchs even when France was in a much worse position.

If Louis Phillipe can be successful then I think he keeps the Generals onside and if he can manage the Jacobins (much less certain) then he can prevent the terror.

The interesting alternative is for Louis Phillipe to fall out with the Jacobins and a French civil war to break out. If the royal party is relative secure and popular then the war could be a long one absent intervention which I think is likely and very messy. But you don't get a "natural borders" France out of this - that would be for an alt-Cromwell (Napoleon?)
I can not see why the Jacobins need to do more when they have already a Costitutional Monarchy led by a King who is 100% involved in that role, is happy to do it and has no reason for betray the country...
Better follow him than risking to have the absolutist traitor Louis XVI back on the throne with foreign support... The Terror is not inevitable in 1791 and a successful flight of the King with the passage of the crown to Philippe Egalite as Costitutional King likely will be enough for stabilizing the country
 
I can not see why the Jacobins need to do more when they have already a Costitutional Monarchy led by a King who is 100% involved in that role, is happy to do it and has no reason for betray the country...
Better follow him than risking to have the absolutist traitor Louis XVI back on the throne with foreign support... The Terror is not inevitable in 1791 and a successful flight of the King with the passage of the crown to Philippe Egalite as Costitutional King likely will be enough for stabilizing the country
I agree but not all the Jacobins did. The Girondists would be agitating for a different path and the Feuillants different again.
 
The Girondists would be agitating for a different path
Speaking of, no terror means that Thomas Paine (among numerous others) doesn't get arrested. That means a couple things; firstly, he doesn't have his OTL fallout with Washington (he might get into an argument about recognizing Philippe, but im sure Jefferson and other francophiles are also pushing for that)
Secondly, he may put off writing The Age of Reason, maybe indefinitely. That one book really killed his reputation in America.

Im not sure where he stands on Philippe tbh. He was relatively amicable with Louis, even if he wanted a full French republic shorn of monarchism and aristocracy, and i dont see that changing.

Further afield, no terror means that the francophiles in america like Jefferson dont take a hit to their popularity, so i wouldn't be surprised if he beats out Adams
 
@Derek Pullem Sorry, IR = International Relations

@piratedude Not only Thomas Paine, but so many others - Lavoisier, Concordet, Olympe de Gauges - who survive. Plus people like Paine and especially LaFayette not having their careers destroyed. All add up to a much larger talent pool for academia and leadership in France and Europe. Just trying to imagine changes from that alone is almost mind boggling...
 
I suppose, to get out of this, his Administration could refer to this as an internal French matter, foreign armies becoming involved notwithstanding; come to think of it, that might actually be the best solution (and could actually create fewer complications for American Foreign Policy than OTL down the line, to boot).
IMO that's exactly what Washington would do.

"Terribly sorry, but as there are two claimants to the French throne we cannot in good conscience take sides in what is clearly a question of internal French government. Any complaints can kindly be filed with somebody who gives a crap and will be ignored at our leisure."
 
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