alternatehistory.com

In 1866, Leopold instructed the Belgian ambassador in Madrid to speak to Queen Isabella II of Spain about ceding the Philippines to Belgium. Knowing the situation fully, the ambassador did nothing. Leopold quickly replaced the ambassador with a more sympathetic individual to carry out his plan.[15] In 1868, when Isabella II was deposed as queen of Spain, Leopold tried to press his original plan to acquire the Philippines. But without funds, he was unsuccessful. Leopold then devised another unsuccessful plan to establish the Philippines as an independent state, which could then be ruled by a Belgian. When both of these plans failed, Leopold shifted his aspirations of colonisation to Africa.[15]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leopold_II_of_Belgium

Leopold II wanted to buy the Philippines. Suppose Leopold II is able to get the Spaniards to sell the Philippines, and perhaps all of the Spanish East Indies (Micronesia) with it. Would the colony end up suffering the same as the Congo Free State or would the Filipinos be able to fight back better?

Major butterflies would be:
-Leopold's interest in the Congo likely butterflied away as focus is on the Philippines
-No American Philippines/Guam, Belgium has it now. Spanish-American War avoids the region.
-Belgium has a Pacific presence. No German and later Japanese Micronesia has implications for WWII.
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