King Francis the Great

Currently, I am working on a TL in which King Francois I of France defeats Imperial forces in the 1521-1525 Italian War. My POD is simple:
Instead of Francois delaying his attack on Imperial forces at Valenciennes in October, 1521, and allowing Charles to retreat, the king instead attacks with full force and manages to score a crippling victory.

This sets off a chain reaction, whereby Charles is forced to send for reinforcements from his Italian campaign, buying the French time to pay the Swiss and adequately garrison Milan. The result is Colonna himself having to delay, in order to meet his master's needs and send troops to the Low Countries. With less troops, and facing a better prepared Lautrec, Colonna is defeated in Lombardy. With the French gaining the upperhand, the Venetians don't betray them and sue for peace in 1523 with the death of the pro-French doge, Antonio Grimani. This keeps the French secure in Italy, and allows them to fully engage Charles in the Low Countries, where he is defeated in a long and devestating battle (let's say hypothetically at Lille in early 1524).

While both sides suffer heavy casualties, to sweeten things, let's say that the Emperor himself falls at Lille: In this TL, the duke of Bourbon throws in his lot with Imperial forces somewhat earlier. King Francois, seeing victory near, has been more aggressive in seizing his lands, ensuring a more speedy falling out between the two. Bourbon's banner is seen on the field of this hypothetical battle of Lille as the defeated armies of the Emperor are retreating; so, the duke of Montmorency and his forces pursue them and manage to cut them off. Unknown to them, Emperor Charles and a contingent of his own guard are with Bourbon and his men. While the duke of Bourbon manages to escape, and join the bulke of the retreating Imperial army (now badly depleted from the war), in the confusion, there is a great massacre by French troops and Emperor Charles falls.

Now, assuming that all this occurs, I have several questions:
(1) If the French were gaining the upperhand in the war by summer of 1522, as they are in this TL, would the English have joined in the conflict, or would King Henry VIII have remained diplomatically neutral for the moment, perhaps on the advice of Wolsey?
(2) With Charles V dead without an heir, what will happen to the Habsburg lands? Obviously his brother will inherit in Austria, as he's already at Innsbruck at this time sitting as regent. And I'm sure his aunt Margaret in the Low Countries will ensure his succession there as well. However, will the Cortes of both Castille and Aragon be so kind this time? I have read that Ferdinand was raised in Spain by his grandfather and namesake, and that he was more popular than Charles there, so perhaps he'll win out.
(3) Which brings me to my next question: with Habsburg forces routed at Lille and now leaderless, I would assume Archduke Ferdinand would be forced to sue for peace immediately. In the resulting peace, the French would obviously be able to impose a humiliating treaty on the Hasburgs. What are the consequences of King Francois gaining Artois, Flanders, and Franche-Comte, along with Habsburg recognition of his right to Milan?

I'm curious to hear everyones' opinions. The first part of the TL isn't ready yet, but I plan on posting it soon enough.
 
I've toyed with this idea myself (or something similar to it), though will probably never get to it. I would definitely read it if it was written.
 
Now, assuming that all this occurs, I have several questions:
(1) If the French were gaining the upperhand in the war by summer of 1522, as they are in this TL, would the English have joined in the conflict, or would King Henry VIII have remained diplomatically neutral for the moment, perhaps on the advice of Wolsey?

I think England might get involved on the Imperial side, if they are willing to pay high subsidies to fund Henry VIII's war. Henry VIII always seemed quite mercenary in his foreign affairs- the bigger issue is going to be- when Henry VIII decides he wants to divorce Katherine of Aragon, what will happen?

I would propose that Henry would ally with the French in the 1520's in order to get the divorce from the French-controlled Pope, which would have more knock-ons since Henry would not be separating from Rome.

With Charles V dead without an heir, what will happen to the Habsburg lands? Obviously his brother will inherit in Austria, as he's already at Innsbruck at this time sitting as regent. And I'm sure his aunt Margaret in the Low Countries will ensure his succession there as well. However, will the Cortes of both Castille and Aragon be so kind this time? I have read that Ferdinand was raised in Spain by his grandfather and namesake, and that he was more popular than Charles there, so perhaps he'll win out.

Ferdinand will inherit the Spains- no one else has any claim. Ferdinand will become the new "Universal Emperor"- except, of course, that he might not be elected Emperor. Francis I started the war over his losing out on the HRE- now he can go for it again and he may get it.

Which brings me to my next question: with Habsburg forces routed at Lille and now leaderless, I would assume Archduke Ferdinand would be forced to sue for peace immediately. In the resulting peace, the French would obviously be able to impose a humiliating treaty on the Hasburgs. What are the consequences of King Francois gaining Artois, Flanders, and Franche-Comte, along with Habsburg recognition of his right to Milan?

A pause in the fighting would happen. Just like what happened after Pavia- a crushing defeat would be recovered from. The Hapsburg had the same capacity to recover as the French, more it could be argued since the American gold hadn't yet started flowing.
 
Prologue, Enter the Players
In late 1520, tensions between the Valois and the Habsburgs are mounting. The personal rivalry between King François I of France and the Holy Roman Emperor Charles V, fueled by the defeat of King François in the Imperial election a year earlier, and by increasing Habsburg intervention in Italy, has essentially but the two realms on a sure path to conflict.

However, both powers, along with their nominal allies, England, Venice and the Papacy, are bound by the treaty of London, which promises peace in Europe, and obliges all the signatories to ally against the first party that breaks the agreement. Further, King Henry VIII of England has personally promised to carry out this clause to the full extent of his ability, already anticipating a French repudiation.

King François does not wish to openly attack Emperor Charles V, for fear of the resulting alliance against him. Thus, the king, wishing to make the first move against his rival, plans to attack by proxy.

At the time, Henri d’Albret, as Henri II, is king of a greatly reduced Navarrese state, the larger region of Upper Navarre having been annexed by the Spanish eight years earlier, and now being in the possession of the Emperor. Since his army’s defeat in 1512, King Henri II—who is in possession of vast estates in France in addition to his micro-kingdom—has been waiting for the opportunity to regain his kingdom’s southern territories. The French, seeing their opportunity, promise to arm and equip the Navarrese king’s forces, lending him the seigneur de l’Esperre, brother of the French king’s mistress, to serve as military commander in the king’s name.

Further, King François, anticipating an Imperial backlash from the Low Countries, gathers a large force near the border with Flanders on the Meuse River, under the command of the duke of Bouillon’s son, Robert de la Marck.

The Italian War, 1520-1523
In December of 1520, the stage is set and L’Esperre invades Upper Navarre with the French armed Navarrese. As Emperor Charles V is currently engaged in Germany, preparing for the convening of the Imperial Diet at Worms, he is caught unprepared, allowing L’Esperre and his men to easily seize Pamplona. La Marck only meets with mixed success in Flanders, the Imperial forces there managing to repel the French attack under the skillful command of Count Hendrik III of Nassau.

Meanwhile, Emperor Charles V speedily concludes the session of the Imperial Diet, ensuring that the historic Edict of Worms is issued against Martin Luther. In return, Pope Leo X, already in desperate need of Imperial assistance against the growing threat of Protestantism in Europe, is forced to abandon the French and ally with the Emperor, who also manages to gain Medici support by promising their restoration to the duchy of Parma. He also promises to drive the French out of the duchy of Milan on behalf of the Sforza family.

The Count of Nassau invades French-held Artois in June, soon after, taking both Ardres and Mouzon, and besieging the city of Tournai. Despite this, L’Esperre manages to hold Pamplona against the Spanish onslaught after a narrow victory at the battle of Esquiroz, though his position is badly outnumbered and worsening.

Realizing the deterioration of his situation, King François I takes personal command of his troops in Artois. He is accompanied by his trusted generals the Duke of Montmorency and the Chevalier de Bayard, who together aid him in gathering his forces and ensuring a strong French resistance to the Imperial position. This is mostly accomplished by French forces, though badly outnumbered, managing to relieve the siege of Mézières and buy King François time to amass a sufficient army to engage the Emperor in the Low Countries.

On October 22, with the main force of the Imperial army in sight at Valenciennes, King François’s military advisors, namely his cousin the Duke of Bourbon, urge him to move immediately and attack. The king however is reluctant to take such a risk and almost decides against this action (due also to his great dislike for his cousin); however, it is the speedy intervention of the Duke of Montmorency which persuades him to follow Bourbon’s advice. Emperor Charles, realizing that King François must be stalling, prepares to retreat. However, at the final hour, he is attacked before he can do so by the full force of the French army. What follows is a long and bloody battle, in which the French are able to route the inexperienced Emperor Charles, forcing him to retreat into Flanders. With Imperial forces crippled by heavy casualties, King François enjoys his first great victory in the war. This triumph, however, does not come without setback. Henri d’Albret is defeated in Navarre after an Imperial victory in the siege of Pamplona several days later, forcing French forces in Spain to retreat to the Pyrenees in lieu of any further losses.

Meanwhile, French victories against the Empire in Artois delay the Italian campaign of Charles V’s general, Prospero Colonna. Colonna is forced to send mercenary reinforcements to the Emperor in the Low Countries, unexpectedly depleting his army’s strength. Nevertheless, the Emperor hastily orders him to press on to Milan, eager to seize the city and gain the financial support of his Italian allies in Florence and elsewhere. He plans to strike before the small French garrison there is able to gather reinforcements.

Unknown to Emperor Charles, the French garrison of Swiss mercenaries has already arrived, the Imperial defeat at Valenciennes having bought the French sufficient time to ensure funds reached Milan for payment of the Swiss corps. The French governor of Milan, Odet de Foix, vicomte de Lautrec, is thus able to muster his armies and inflict a heavy defeat on the undermanned forces of Colonna on February 4, 1522, at the battle of Milan, despite the latter’s superior skills as a tactician.

This of course comes at a heavy cost to King François I, who finds himself running low on funds. He begins to confiscate the lands of his cousin, the Duke of Bourbon, the two having already fallen out with the death of the latter’s wife the previous year. The King of France claims the lands of the duke’s deceased widow in the right of his mother, the next of kin, hoping to squeeze revenue out of them in desperate need of support for the war. In rage, Bourbon abandons King François and rashly throws in his lot with Emperor Charles in desperation that summer.

At the same time, the Emperor finds himself in an increasingly deteriorating position. Though he has managed to secure the Pyrenees against the threat of attack, his forces in Italy are badly outnumbered, and he fears another French invasion of the Low Countries. Emperor Charles V attempts to make overtures to King Henry VIII in England (the husband of Charles’s aunt, Katherine of Aragon), promising to wed the king’s daughter, Princess Mary, in return for military aide against the French. While his wife urges him in the proposed alliance, King Henry, at the advice of his chancellor Cardinal Wolsey, bides his time, considering the implications. Meanwhile, the Emperor begins gathering his remaining forces in the Low Countries in preparation to launch another invasion into Artois, hoping for English support and reinforcements.

The death of the pro-French Doge of Venice in November, 1522, signals a tense moment in King François’s foreign policy. France has managed to keep the upper hand in the war by withstanding both Imperial and Papal offensives in Lombardy, this being due to both Lautrec’s reliance on Swiss mercenaries, and also to the military support of the powerful Republic of Venice. The election of a pro-Imperial doge could spell disaster for France’s position in Italy. However, this crisis is averted with the election of the pro-French Pietro Lando to the ducal crown. This is cemented by another Franco-Venetian victory against Imperial forces at Brescia, forcing the now badly outnumbered Colonna to pull out of Lombardy and retreat into Trent for the time being.

After much deliberation, King Henry VIII, on the advice of Cardinal Wolsey, wisely decides to remain neutral for the moment. By now, it is apparent that the Emperor’s position in the Low Countries is fast eroding, and that the French are gaining the upper hand in the war. Wolsey knows all too well that the cost of English involvement on the continent will be far too high—for not only is Emperor Charles V calling for far too many troops to strengthen his position in Flanders, he also is also running low on funds. Finally, neither the cardinal nor the king enjoys the prospect of fighting a war on two fronts; for while Scotland is still recovering from the disasters of Flodden ten years prior, with the Venetians now securely in play in Italy for the moment, there is little to stop King François from sending fresh troops to coordinate a joint Franco-Scottish invasion of the North Country.
Spring brings some relief to the demoralized Imperial troops in Italy when Colonna is able to hold the city of Trent against Lautrec and his forces in Italy, after withstanding a month long siege in April, 1523. Nevertheless, Franco-Venetian occupation of the Imperial allied prince-bishopric of Trent has now brought Lautrec dangerously close to Habsburg lands in Tyrol. The Emperor, both fearing a French invasion of Austria, and also not wishing to occupy himself with the dangerous it presents, immediately instructs his brother the Archduke Ferdinand, regent of Austria, to raise an army to support his garrison there and defend the Habsburg lands in Germany at all costs. The Archduke, who is already low on funds and men from supplying reinforcements to Colonna for the failed Lombard campaign, now finds himself in an almost desperate position.

His brother, however, is far too occupied in the north to be of service. Emperor Charles, now realizing he will not be able to count on his uncle in England, at least for the time being, begins preparing for a second campaign in France. He hopes to engage the bulk of the French army under King François at Artois, knowing that a victory there could spell a reversal of his fortunes, as it will ensure the king of France is too occupied repelling Imperial forces to attack the Emperor’s lands in Austria.

In the summer of 1523, Charles V rallies his remaining forces in the Low Countries and executes an invasion of Artois, accompanied by the Marquess of Pescara and the Duke of Bourbon, who serve as his lieutenant commanders. King François, assisted by the Duke of Montmorency, manages to hold the county, though both sides suffer heavy casualties at (unsuccessful) Imperial siege of Arras. Meanwhile, in Italy, Lautrec launches an invasion of Tyrol with his Venetian allies. The invasion, however, meets with only minor success, as the Austrian forces under the joint command of Archduke Ferdinand and Colonna manage to hold the border, at least for the time being.

After several light skirmishes in Flanders, French forces finally engage the Emperor Charles his army at Lille, on August 7, 1523. For the past few months, the Emperor has been attempting to avoid direct combat, as he is now stretched dangerously thin on two fronts, having not yet fully recovered from his crushing defeats at both Valenciennes and Milan. Though initially the Imperial army gains an early upper hand in the conflict, the tides of the battle soon turn in favor the king of France, who uses his Swiss mercenaries to devastating effect on the Landsknecht, inflicting heavy casualties on the Imperial army. The Emperor is forced to order a retreat. However, at this time, Emperor Charles’s own personal guard is accompanied by troops under the command of the Duke of Bourbon. Montmorency, seeing the traitor Bourbon’s colors, orders his own men to pursue the retreating prince. While Bourbon manages to escape with the bulk of the imperial forces already in retreat, the Emperor and much of Bourbon’s own men are cut off by the French.

In the resulting confusion, most of the trapped Imperial forces are massacred by the French, including Emperor Charles V himself. The French soon declare victory.

The aftermath is devastating for the Habsburgs. The Emperor’s death without an heir leaves his brother, Archduke Ferdinand, heir to his vast domains in Spain, Austria and the Low Countries. As the twenty-one year old archduke is currently in Tyrol, attempting to repel the French and Venetian troops now sitting on his border, the news does not reach him until the following week. Left with little choice, Archduke Ferdinand is forced to sue for peace with François I.

The resulting treaty of Brussels, signed on New Year’s Day, 1524, is a humiliating defeat for the Habsburgs. Archduke Ferdinand is forced to recognize French rule of Milan, and to further renounce his claims to Artois, Franche-Comté and Flanders, which are ceded to France.
 
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FWIW, Francis I winning the Italian Wars was a major part of my abandoned Teutonic Crusade AAR. I think a victory there would change the history of all of Europe. A much more powerful France and a weaker Spain would be interesting once the Reformation rears its head.
 
Charles V dying would really be an accident of low probability, IMO ( not no mean it couldn't happen, of course ). More likely would have been surrender, captivity and ruinous ransom.

What exactly what is the extend of the Flanders territory surrendered to the french at the peace treaty? ( It has had several meaning historically, and I don't remember what it covered at that point. )
 
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The suddenly King Ferdinand II Hapsburg has lost an army in Northern Italy, but suffered no other defeats at French hands. His brother is dead, but his vast domains are not exhausted from war or struck by multiple terrible defeats. He has lost one army in one theater of a multi-front war that has barely started. He will not lay down to Francis I and give up un-earned territory. I would guess he calls up more troops from Spain and his Italian territories and reassembles an army in Naples, since after defeating Charles V Francis would probably want to advance south and push his advantage in Italy.

Is Ferdinand really in a position to be compelled to give up all that territory? I know that they have just suffered a defeat, but no major cities have fallen to the French- that is, Francis has not successfully invaded and invested Naples or taken Sicily. Francis has scored a victory, but not really taken anything, so if a treaty was to be made I can see an acknowledgment of Francis' holding Milan, but not the territory being given up in the Burgundian Inheritance.

The territory in the Burgundian Inheritance is not being threatened by the French, at least the French have not won any major victories that have been mentioned in the TL in that area, and the area was thick with walled fortresses that made warfare in that region so expensive and slow. Giving up territory in the Low Countries in order to stem an apparently non-existent French advance makes little sense to me.

I think you want this battle to be Pavia for the Hapsburgs, but I don't think it is. A bad defeat? Sure. A game-changing defeat? Charles V might be dead, but the war goes on. Ferdinand just won't feel as hopelessly boxed in as you have him in this TL.
 
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