King Ferdinand II of Aragon assassinated in Barcelona on 7 December 1492

Henry Manson

Banned

Attempted assassination of King Ferdinand the Catholic

Attempted assassination of King Ferdinand the Catholic
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What would have happened next had Joan de Canyamars's assassination attempt on King Ferdinand the Catholic on the steps of the Barcelona Royal Palace in Catalonia had succeeded?

Especially how would this event affect his wife Queen Isabella I of Castile?

Assume that as an additional POD, Prince Afonso of Portugal survives his 13 July 1491 horse-riding on the Tagus River banks, or alternatively, it never happens at all, butterflying away the death of Isabella of Aragon as well as Prince Miguel da Paz.

Juan, Prince of Asturias, may or may not survive in this TL, depending on the butterfly effects that this POD has. Another interesting possibility in this TL is to have Archduchess Margaret of Austria drown during her voyage to Spain off the French coastline.

And finally, what would the older Isabella likely do to de Canyamars once he is captured? The method of execution will almost certainly not be nice AT ALL, that's for sure.
 
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ordinarylittleme

ordinarylittleme

Henry Manson said:
King Charles VIII of France may be tempted by the chaos resulting from Ferdinand's death to invade Aragon to claim the entirety of Navarre for himself.
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Isabella will at least try to fight him off, successfully or not is debatable. She could potentially remarry, though in her forties at this point, it's debatable on her fertility. Anyway, Joanna will definitely NOT be locked up, perhaps Alfonso of Portugal and Philip don't die young if you think that Ferdinand killed them somehow...
 
Kynan

Kynan

One thing that might happen is Juan III of Aragon (as he’d be known here) might end up married to Anne of Navarre, who he was betrothed to on and off until the match with Margaret of Austria was set upon.

As for Isabella remarrying…why would she? She’s 41, her last pregnancy was like half a decade ago, she has her son and a bunch of daughters to marry off for alliances. The only thing that changes is her husband’s say in where the girls go. I’m not read up enough on the differences the two had in their foreign policy, but it seems like Ferdinand was more ambitious in that direction, considering his later reign? Granted, until the last decade or so of her life Isabella was seemingly solely focused on maintaining the Inquisition and solidifying her hold on Castile. But considering her affection for her daughters, maybe she’d try for closer matches? Maybe one to Naples?
 
ordinarylittleme

ordinarylittleme

Kynan said:
One thing that might happen is Juan III of Aragon (as he’d be known here) might end up married to Anne of Navarre, who he was betrothed to on and off until the match with Margaret of Austria was set upon.

As for Isabella remarrying…why would she? She’s 41, her last pregnancy was like half a decade ago, she has her son and a bunch of daughters to marry off for alliances. The only thing that changes is her husband’s say in where the girls go. I’m not read up enough on the differences the two had in their foreign policy, but it seems like Ferdinand was more ambitious in that direction, considering his later reign? Granted, until the last decade or so of her life Isabella was seemingly solely focused on maintaining the Inquisition and solidifying her hold on Castile. But considering her affection for her daughters, maybe she’d try for closer matches? Maybe one to Naples?
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There is no Naples prince/king close enough in age to any of her daughters to be plausible as far as I know, but I can be corrected.

Isabella was focused on Castile as her hold on it wasn't entirely secure until decades into her reign, Ferdinand was the one with the expansionist policy. The marriages of their children were all for alliances, so I fail to see how a Naples pairing will help in any way possible...
 
Kynan

Kynan

ordinarylittleme said:
There is no Naples prince/king close enough in age to any of her daughters to be plausible as far as I know, but I can be corrected.

Isabella was focused on Castile as her hold on it wasn't entirely secure until decades into her reign, Ferdinand was the one with the expansionist policy. The marriages of their children were all for alliances, so I fail to see how a Naples pairing will help in any way possible...
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The only reason I thought of Naples is that it's a nearby kingdom and considering how devastated Juana was losing Catherine of Aragon to England, I could see her at least considering alliances that allowed her daughters (or at least Catherine, the baby of the family) to stay close. But it is somewhat of a stretch.

As for Naples, I could see Catherine with the Duke of Calabria particularly in a scenario where Isabella chooses a more aggressive anti-French stance for whatever reason and wants to throw her support behind the Neapolitans?
 
kasumigenx

kasumigenx

Kynan said:
One thing that might happen is Juan III of Aragon (as he’d be known here) might end up married to Anne of Navarre, who he was betrothed to on and off until the match with Margaret of Austria was set upon.

As for Isabella remarrying…why would she? She’s 41, her last pregnancy was like half a decade ago, she has her son and a bunch of daughters to marry off for alliances. The only thing that changes is her husband’s say in where the girls go. I’m not read up enough on the differences the two had in their foreign policy, but it seems like Ferdinand was more ambitious in that direction, considering his later reign? Granted, until the last decade or so of her life Isabella was seemingly solely focused on maintaining the Inquisition and solidifying her hold on Castile. But considering her affection for her daughters, maybe she’d try for closer matches? Maybe one to Naples?
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Anne of Navarre is infertile and deformed, but that is fine, that would leave some space for Miguel da Paz to ready himself to unite the Kingdoms.
 
ordinarylittleme

ordinarylittleme

Kynan said:
The only reason I thought of Naples is that it's a nearby kingdom and considering how devastated Juana was losing Catherine of Aragon to England, I could see her at least considering alliances that allowed her daughters (or at least Catherine, the baby of the family) to stay close. But it is somewhat of a stretch.

As for Naples, I could see Catherine with the Duke of Calabria particularly in a scenario where Isabella chooses a more aggressive anti-French stance for whatever reason and wants to throw her support behind the Neapolitans?
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Juana was devastated at her baby sister going to England?

Anyway, why would Isabella make an aggressive anti-French stance?
 
Kynan

Kynan

ordinarylittleme said:
Juana was devastated at her baby sister going to England?

Anyway, why would Isabella make an aggressive anti-French stance?
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Whoops, meant Isabella I of Castile. There's so many of them.

Now there's a ton of reasons why Isabella would go aggressive against France in the 1490s. Charles VIII's Italian campaigns were against her family's interests, as were Louis XII's. They supported the opposing Navaresse succession (part of why Isabella and Ferdinand negotiated the Anne of Navarre/Juan betrothal in the first place). They were their natural foreign rivals. It's not a rock solid case, but I can totally imagine a scenario where Charles VIII pisses the widowed Isabella off just enough for her to put her foot down and make some more aggressive moved against him and his successors. I don't totally think this is what WOULD happen btw, I'm just trying to put some other ideas into the mix.
 
ordinarylittleme

ordinarylittleme

Kynan said:
Whoops, meant Isabella I of Castile. There's so many of them.

Now there's a ton of reasons why Isabella would go aggressive against France in the 1490s. Charles VIII's Italian campaigns were against her family's interests, as were Louis XII's. They supported the opposing Navaresse succession (part of why Isabella and Ferdinand negotiated the Anne of Navarre/Juan betrothal in the first place). They were their natural foreign rivals. It's not a rock solid case, but I can totally imagine a scenario where Charles VIII pisses the widowed Isabella off just enough for her to put her foot down and make some more aggressive moved against him and his successors. I don't totally think this is what WOULD happen btw, I'm just trying to put some other ideas into the mix.
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That would be interesting, especially if ITTL, Charles DOESN'T hit his head on a door...
 

Kellan Sullivan

I could be getting this entirely mixed up, but why does everyone assume that Isabel will be doing anything in Aragon? Castile's a different matter. But her son is king of Aragon, and I'm not sure what the age of majority was there (@Kurt_Steiner @Diego @Ivan Lupo ), but he, or whomever is regent for him is the one calling the shots in Aragon. As to regents, I suspect it won't be Isabel, since she had absolutely zero idea of how to deal with the Aragonese cortes. She attended a sitting with Fernando once and remarked that "these are not your subjects. You should have them arrested". Which means even if she does get installed as regent, I doubt she will last very long (or be very popular) in the post.

That said, Charles VIII's "Italian Wars" are not necessarily Isabel's problem. Aragon had the lands in Italy and the traditional beef with the French. Not Castile. And, since, if this is "unaffected" by butterflies we have, first the sickly Joan III of Aragon, then either Joan's son, or the son of Isabel of Aragon and the prince of Portugal. That means we're looking at a period of several years (possibly starting in 1492, I don't know when Joan's condition began) where the king is not going to be in the position to rule.

This is assuming that Joan has anything of Fernando's competence in either the political or the military arena. Or that the Aragonese don't take a similar dislike to him as the Castilians took to Karl V on his arrival because Joan is naming "foreigners" (Castilians, in this case) to Aragonese posts.
 

Kellan Sullivan

ordinarylittleme said:
Why would Maria be in need of a groom? She can still wed Manuel.
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Like Hell will Joao II let his despised brother-in-law wed to an actual infanta. He had a higher regard for his bastard son, Jorge of Coimbra's chance. Or perhaps delusion is the better word.
ordinarylittleme said:
Alternately she weds James IV of Scotland, an idea I tried to explore in another thread.
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Like I said there, the only way Maria is marrying James is if there's zero other options available.
 
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