Kim il-Sung wins: What happens to the Korean Peninsula?

In a scenario where the Soviet Union does not boycott the UN Security Council and therefore is present to veto United Security Council Resolution 82, thereby blocking the UN from approving a military mission to support the South Korean government and as a result, leaves the Busan Perimeter to be annihilated by North Korea, what would happen to the Korean Peninsula under Kim-il-Sung's reign, aside from the purging of anti-Communists?
 

MrP

Banned
It might become like Romania under Ceaucescu, a semi-detached member of the Soviet bloc ruled by an egomaniacal dictator, but generally not seen as a regional threat. Still a totalitarian nightmare, of course.
 
At some point, without the siege mentality OTL DPRK has, Kim Il-sung might wind up removed from power. He also might not be able to consolidate as much power in the first place. And after the fall of the Soviet Union, he wouldn't be able to pass power to Kim Jong-il and his successors would end up copying China or Vietnam.
 
Hmmm, no Americans and Brits coming in. The UN may be seen as much more powerful in this world if this happens, though western countries might not be so welcome with it. I can see a lot of people referring to the United Nations as the Fourth Comintern even though, yes, the United Nations was originally used to refer to the Allied Powers of WWII. Can we assume that Jeju and perhaps some coastal islands of South Korea remain under Non-Kim control? And I am wondering about the religious dimensions of this. Pyongyang was originally one of the main bases of Christianity in Korea, before the Kims (how should we refer to the rulers and ideology anyways? Communist and Socialist don't really seem to describe them) came in. Probably helped by the war between the North, South, and the help of the Chinese and UN moving back and forth over the peninsula, damaging so much. What name do you think the country will use for itself? IOTL, the North calls themselves Choson and the South used Hanguk.
 
I wonder what happens to Jeju Island in such a scenario.

In theory, it can be taken the same way the PRC took Hainan--land some troops supported by local insurgents. A big problem was the ROK already murdered a significant amount of potential (and actual) DPRK supporters in the events of the Jeju Uprising. But there's still potential for a guerilla movement to form and allow for the DPRK to capture the island.

But if the entire mainland falls under DPRK control, then I'd assume the United States might get very worried and send some assets to assist in evacuation of anti-communists as well preventing a naval landing on Jeju. If the US doesn't step in, then Jeju will probably fall to the DPRK given time.
 
Jeju "returned" to Japan as a country that has proved to be rebuilding in a loyal and Western fashion? Maybe given autonomy on the same level as the Aland Islands have in Finland with Japan?

While 300,000ish is workable for a microstate, I just don't see it surviving akin to the ROC has. I see it more likely made a protectorate akin to Ryukyu Islands and maybe annexed into Japan or transition to something like Puerto Rico.

I just don't see Jeju surviving as a rump ROK, and I feel the US might in this scenario attempt to avoid conflict in the area by making Jeju something other than a remnant state.

Though I have little speciality on this, so lots of salt for these ideas. Were there any documents on potential plans for such a scenario (that we know of)?
 
Jeju "returned" to Japan as a country that has proved to be rebuilding in a loyal and Western fashion? Maybe given autonomy on the same level as the Aland Islands have in Finland with Japan?

While 300,000ish is workable for a microstate, I just don't see it surviving akin to the ROC has. I see it more likely made a protectorate akin to Ryukyu Islands and maybe annexed into Japan or transition to something like Puerto Rico.

I just don't see Jeju surviving as a rump ROK, and I feel the US might in this scenario attempt to avoid conflict in the area by making Jeju something other than a remnant state.

Though I have little speciality on this, so lots of salt for these ideas. Were there any documents on potential plans for such a scenario (that we know of)?

Why would the Jeju Koreans want to return to Japan? That would probably start more violence on the island and threaten the ROK position. And I don't see how giving it to Japan is going to stop conflict, considering the DPRK will continue to claim it as an integral territory of Korea and further be able to use it as proof that the United States and capitalist West are firmly on the side of imperialism and exploitation of the Korean people given that they just handed back Korean land to the former imperialist oppressor Japan. Given DPRK's constant use of nationalism in their propaganda, they'd be able to score a huge propaganda victory over their own people, the Jeju Koreans, Koreans abroad (mainly in Japan regarding Zainichi Korean groups), and probably other peoples in the colonised world too.

A lot of post-colonial countries became independent with 300K or less people although in the early 50s there weren't many independent countries with that many people. In any case, a significant number of refugees might be able to escape there to increase the population further.
 
Why would the Jeju Koreans want to return to Japan? That would probably start more violence on the island and threaten the ROK position. And I don't see how giving it to Japan is going to stop conflict, considering the DPRK will continue to claim it as an integral territory of Korea and further be able to use it as proof that the United States and capitalist West are firmly on the side of imperialism and exploitation of the Korean people given that they just handed back Korean land to the former imperialist oppressor Japan. Given DPRK's constant use of nationalism in their propaganda, they'd be able to score a huge propaganda victory over their own people, the Jeju Koreans, Koreans abroad (mainly in Japan regarding Zainichi Korean groups), and probably other peoples in the colonised world too.

A lot of post-colonial countries became independent with 300K or less people although in the early 50s there weren't many independent countries with that many people. In any case, a significant number of refugees might be able to escape there to increase the population further.

I didn't say the Jeju Koreans would want to return to Japan, just that the US might decide that the reconstructed Japan would be the best place to put them to ensure they'll be part of a strong and anti-communist state.

And look, if you know the Aland Island situation you know that those people get such preferential treatment in terms of lack of taxes and local cultural and political autonomy that they don't want to go back, so if we assume there is some autonomous Principality of Jeju/Saishu that is thoroughly Korean but protected by Japan then I fail to see how much hassle this all peninsula DPRK could cause.

Again, I'm not saying this would be the best thing for the Jeju people just that the US might decide that this the best way to avoid constant conflict. Imagine the Gibraltar fishing and oceanic disputes but on steroids if both this ROK and DPRK claim all of Korea. If this Jeju state is instead thoroughly dedicated to being independent (there's a degree of cultural distinctiveness that could back this up) we'd likely see less conflict if one side would rather annex one area eventually but doesn't feel threatened by a government-in-exile. Such a DPRK can deal with this Jeju state on realpolitik terms without worrying about being a base of operations for peninsula spanning anti-communist rebels and operations.

And how many of those post-colonial countries nearly fell or did fall to communism or were under threat of doing so?

And on the note of being seen to support imperialism, Japan is still under occupation and could easily have Jeju autonomy built into their constitution like the OTL Self-Defence clauses. Besides, Japan still had a thriving left at this point that would hardly resurrect imperial discrimination and would make it hard to any of the right/far right parties to do so. Jeju could also be make like the Ryukyu protectorate and annexed into Japan or made re-independent much later such as '72.

And even if we assume this decision turns out to confirm all the worst fears of the Jeju Koreans, that doesn't mean it might not seem like a good idea in the moment and it doesn't mean that the US might not enforce it to ensure a strong anti-communist presence in the East.
 
In a scenario where the Soviet Union does not boycott the UN Security Council and therefore is present to veto United Security Council Resolution 82, thereby blocking the UN from approving a military mission to support the South Korean government and as a result, leaves the Busan Perimeter to be annihilated by North Korea, what would happen to the Korean Peninsula under Kim-il-Sung's reign, aside from the purging of anti-Communists?

The US would probably still intervene even without UN sanction. Truman explicitly compared Korea to German aggression against Czechoslovakia. A more likely POD would be having a more isolationist president.

The DPRK might be less paranoid than OTL, having not fought a war with America and with the nearest American military presence across the Sea of Japan.
 
On the hand, the WPK might be less paranoid, since they control all the Korea; OTOH, Japan getting more militarized than OTL might make them more aggresive ("See, the Americans are helping the Japanese militarists and imperialists!").

Hmmm, no Americans and Brits coming in. The UN may be seen as much more powerful in this world if this happens, though western countries might not be so welcome with it. I can see a lot of people referring to the United Nations as the Fourth Comintern even though, yes, the United Nations was originally used to refer to the Allied Powers of WWII. Can we assume that Jeju and perhaps some coastal islands of South Korea remain under Non-Kim control? And I am wondering about the religious dimensions of this. Pyongyang was originally one of the main bases of Christianity in Korea, before the Kims (how should we refer to the rulers and ideology anyways? Communist and Socialist don't really seem to describe them) came in. Probably helped by the war between the North, South, and the help of the Chinese and UN moving back and forth over the peninsula, damaging so much. What name do you think the country will use for itself? IOTL, the North calls themselves Choson and the South used Hanguk.

And on the note of being seen to support imperialism, Japan is still under occupation and could easily have Jeju autonomy built into their constitution like the OTL Self-Defence clauses. Besides, Japan still had a thriving left at this point that would hardly resurrect imperial discrimination and would make it hard to any of the right/far right parties to do so. Jeju could also be make like the Ryukyu protectorate and annexed into Japan or made re-independent much later such as '72.

And what about an independent rump ROK heavily helped by the United States, a kind of city-state whose leaders would make speeches about "crushing the Communist bandits on the mainland."
 
In a scenario where the Soviet Union does not boycott the UN Security Council and therefore is present to veto United Security Council Resolution 82, thereby blocking the UN from approving a military mission to support the South Korean government and as a result, leaves the Busan Perimeter to be annihilated by North Korea, what would happen to the Korean Peninsula under Kim-il-Sung's reign, aside from the purging of anti-Communists?
There are US troops in Busan.

The US will still intervene, just not under UN auspices, and probably with fewer allies.
 
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