Kilij Arslan I lives longer?

[Vinization]

Kilij Arslan I, sultan of Rum, was the first Muslim leader to face the Crusaders, being defeated by them during the First Crusade but eventually scoring a victory in 1101. He was defeated in a battle near Mosul in 1107 and drowned in a river shortly after at the age of 27.

What if he hadn't died so young or, better yet, won that battle? While I don't think he would manage to score great victories against the Byzantines in the short term, unless the Komnenian restoration was badly derailed somehow (could getting John II killed by the Pechenegs in 1122 do the trick?) maybe he ends up leaving a stronger sultanate at the hands of his descendants, one that can swoop in when the ERE's decline becomes irreversible.

Assuming he wins the battle and retains control of Mosul, could he eventually move against Aleppo and eventually the Crusader States, perhaps capturing Edessa earlier than Zengi did?

 

[funnyhat]

It's weird to think how young so many historical rulers were. Imagine commanding an army when your face is full of acne.

 

[Vinization]

It's weird to think how young so many historical rulers were. Imagine commanding an army when your face is full of acne.

And being younger than most of your "subordinates".

 

[Talus I of Dixie]

Damn, this would certainly result in a lot of butterflies, if Kiliç Arslan wins against the Artuqid-Ridwan-Seljuk alliance, you might just crumble the Seljuk Empire entirely and establish the Rûm Sultanate as the dominant middle-eastern force at least temporarily.

You see, Arslan winning against them basically means that al-Jazira and maybe (not likely, although if things get much fucked up with the Seljuks might happen) Mesopotamia are coming under the Rûm fold, and with the latter, comes the Abbasid Caliph (al-Mustazhir, who was quite irrevelant tbh) in the pack. Muhammad Tapar probably will be quite badly received in Persia or Baghdad, although i don't think he would be overthrown, he probably would soon have problems with his vizier (who he arguably imprisoned IOTL) and the persian vassals who were not much loyal.

Immediately i don't think Arslan would be able to take Aleppo mostly due to logistic reasons, taking Mesopotamia or really only al-Jazira won't go well without its expenses, and although he seemed to be a quite ambitious ruler, he certainly was clever enough to know that things have their right time, and yet also you have the possibility of Muhammad simply raising an army to take it back for them (if he manages to cope up with possible crisis back in Persia).

Anyway with this victory Arslan would've just wiped out the Artuqids plus the long-term capacity of Edessa and Aleppo to survive, i don't think he would go for other campaign for some time unless forced to do so, while the obvious continued stability of Rûm will result in the Danishmendids being assimilated into the realm (they were turned into subjects by Arslan), and long-term (like some 15-20 years later) you'll probably see Arslan pushing for the fall of Edessa and Aleppo, his sucessor would quite possibly receive a top-notch realm that would be much more entrenched than what the byzantines faced IOTL, and probably would be a danger to crusaders and eastern romans alike, he might also get into caucasian affairs but i'm not well-studied enough to see the consequences.

 

[Vinization]

snip

So a super successful Rum might be able to conquer both what's left of the ERE AND the Crusader states? Holy moly, that's a lot of potential for a TL right there.

 

[Silver01]

Kilij Arslan I vs Jonh Kommenos would be interesting to see but Jonh has a more impressive record than Arslan that defeated the people's crusade and some in 1100 but was defeated by the crusaders even when he had odds to his favor , maybe in this timeline the latin nobles do something rather then no help and John due to butterflies or the launch of an earlier second crusade do to Arslan agression , it could turn to a byzantine recapture of their orginal gains in anatolia just earlier or more conquest

 

[Vinization]

Kilij Arslan I vs Jonh Kommenos would be interesting to see but Jonh has a more impressive record than Arslan that defeated the people's crusade and some in 1100 but was defeated by the crusaders even when he had odds to his favor , maybe in this timeline the latin nobles do something rather then no help and John due to butterflies or the launch of an earlier second crusade do to Arslan agression , it could turn to a byzantine recapture of their orginal gains in anatolia just earlier or more conquest

With some ambitious emir/prince stirring up trouble in the east. If Arslan isn't careful, he could get into a very bad situation indeed. But he might also learn something from his defeats in the First Crusade.

 

[Talus I of Dixie]

Kilij Arslan I vs Jonh Kommenos would be interesting to see but Jonh has a more impressive record than Arslan that defeated the people's crusade and some in 1100 but was defeated by the crusaders even when he had odds to his favor , maybe in this timeline the latin nobles do something rather then no help and John due to butterflies or the launch of an earlier second crusade do to Arslan agression , it could turn to a byzantine recapture of their orginal gains in anatolia just earlier or more conquest

With some ambitious emir/prince stirring up trouble in the east. If Arslan isn't careful, he could get into a very bad situation indeed. But he might also learn something from his defeats in the First Crusade.

Very much it, although i think an surviving Kiliç Arslan probably would have the experience on his side against John, i'm not safe to say that it would certainly result in a turkish victory, especially because there are times where energetic youth (and i grant you that John Komnenos wasn't anything if not energetic) wins against experience (Arslan would be much more experienced than John, even though they have only an eight-year difference in actual age), but it would be an interesting confront indeed, you might see an earlier second crusade due to Arslan finishing off Edessa and Aleppo, although things may not go so smooth due to the more established powerbase of Arslan ITTL (it really comes down to writing a TL, it could go as much for Arslan's side as it could go to the byzantine's), but indeed you have the threat of an early collapse of the Crusader States, even IOTL Arslan tried a campaign against Antioch which failed mostly because the Danishmendids didn't help much in being "allies" (this subsequently resulted in Arslan just screwing over them and forcing subjection), if you want any eastern mess the danishmendids are your bet, although they most probably would be cut down to size after any Rûm victory in Mesopotamia (and thus eliminating this credible threat).

I think of Arslan as an fairly clever ruler, after the crusaders started to go brrrrr in their promises to the byzantines he effectively allied with Alexios in order to screw over the crusaders, but his early death ended up damning these plans. Anyway, with John in power any friendly relationship will most likely go to hell because of John's energetic will, i wouldn't remove the possibility of Arslan invading the byzantines soon after the pechenegs come rolling again, if only to regain lost territories of strategic importance.

Anyway, Arslan most likely would hit heads with the crusaders as soon as they start to take over the remnants of fatimid rule in the Levant, since the isolated cities probably would declare for Arslan in the nearest opportunity. The main problem for Arslan is continuing his legacy, it doesn't really matter if he manages to become the main Seljuk Sultan, win against the byzantines in some anatolian campaigns and screw over the crusaders successively if he isn't succeeded at level, IOTL Malikshah (his sucessor) was elevated being 14 years old and at the very least wasn't really competent at all, returning in conflict with the byzantines only to be crushed by Alexios and dying with 20 years (he lost his father with 11 years and spent 3 years in captivity at Ispahan - during which the Rûm Sultanate was in a three-way civil war and the byzantines recovered a lot of territory - so i really can't blame him for not being particularly competent), if Arslan lives, let's say, to the 1130s (his 50s), i think you can get a decent enough Malikshah (especially because he wouldn't have lost the most important part of learning to be a ruler - adolescence - in captivity without a father) that wouldn't screw everything over, although i don't think he would be anything fantastical either, just sufficient to keep the train moving on, after his (probably brief, he would be Sultan with around 40 years) reign you start to work with much more butterflies.

 

[Talus I of Dixie]

So a super successful Rum might be able to conquer both what's left of the ERE AND the Crusader states? Holy moly, that's a lot of potential for a TL right there.

And replying to that, an super successful Rûm resulting from Kiliç Arslan carrying the stick most probably immediately screw the crusaders' situation. Although short-term i think their opportunities to really conquer the byzantines is really not there yet (especially because of the byzantine good track called Komnenian Dynasty), long-term if the Sultanate manages to keep its shit together i think it can be made, you can do it still in the 12th century if Rûm rolls at least a 5/4/6 heir, but then butterflies also go the other way around so it's just as likely that the Komnenos continue in Byzantium so...i might say that a long-term response can only be made with a full-fledged timeline

Ah, also there's another thing, super-successful Rûm that manages to crush the crusaders most probably upgrades into super-successful Rûm that invades Egypt (well, the seljuks were already doing it before the Crusades), the state would be hella powerful but the chances of it collapsing ala Seljuks is as great as its power

 

[Vinization]

Didn't Arslan's other son, Mesud, actually do a decent job, as did his grandson, Kilij Arslan II, considering the odds against them?

 

[Silver01]

Very much it, although i think an surviving Kiliç Arslan probably would have the experience on his side against John, i'm not safe to say that it would certainly result in a turkish victory, especially because there are times where energetic youth (and i grant you that John Komnenos wasn't anything if not energetic) wins against experience (Arslan would be much more experienced than John, even though they have only an eight-year difference in actual age), but it would be an interesting confront indeed, you might see an earlier second crusade due to Arslan finishing off Edessa and Aleppo, although things may not go so smooth due to the more established powerbase of Arslan ITTL (it really comes down to writing a TL, it could go as much for Arslan's side as it could go to the byzantine's), but indeed you have the threat of an early collapse of the Crusader States, even IOTL Arslan tried a campaign against Antioch which failed mostly because the Danishmendids didn't help much in being "allies" (this subsequently resulted in Arslan just screwing over them and forcing subjection), if you want any eastern mess the danishmendids are your bet, although they most probably would be cut down to size after any Rûm victory in Mesopotamia (and thus eliminating this credible threat).

I think of Arslan as an fairly clever ruler, after the crusaders started to go brrrrr in their promises to the byzantines he effectively allied with Alexios in order to screw over the crusaders, but his early death ended up damning these plans. Anyway, with John in power any friendly relationship will most likely go to hell because of John's energetic will, i wouldn't remove the possibility of Arslan invading the byzantines soon after the pechenegs come rolling again, if only to regain lost territories of strategic importance.

Anyway, Arslan most likely would hit heads with the crusaders as soon as they start to take over the remnants of fatimid rule in the Levant, since the isolated cities probably would declare for Arslan in the nearest opportunity. The main problem for Arslan is continuing his legacy, it doesn't really matter if he manages to become the main Seljuk Sultan, win against the byzantines in some anatolian campaigns and screw over the crusaders successively if he isn't succeeded at level, IOTL Malikshah (his sucessor) was elevated being 14 years old and at the very least wasn't really competent at all, returning in conflict with the byzantines only to be crushed by Alexios and dying with 20 years (he lost his father with 11 years and spent 3 years in captivity at Ispahan - during which the Rûm Sultanate was in a three-way civil war and the byzantines recovered a lot of territory - so i really can't blame him for not being particularly competent), if Arslan lives, let's say, to the 1130s (his 50s), i think you can get a decent enough Malikshah (especially because he wouldn't have lost the most important part of learning to be a ruler - adolescence - in captivity without a father) that wouldn't screw everything over, although i don't think he would be anything fantastical either, just sufficient to keep the train moving on, after his (probably brief, he would be Sultan with around 40 years) reign you start to work with much more butterflies.

arslan was a clever person but he did commit several mistakes shown in the first crusade , but yeah I think i favor john just by his early years alone of him killing of the pechenegs and beating hungary beyond the danube but yeah things could happen like in battle John receives an arrow to the neck , while John was energetic he was no fool in fact his strategy was to divide and conquer

in this timeline arslan has a more stable realm and can go against the crusaders with the byzantines being the only real danger here and win making the crusader states squabble and have antioch against the byzantines
how ever he has one big disadvantage success or not he cant really change it being that some parts of the levant where coastal and the italian maritime republics
on the other hand if arslan is to successful and the second crusade starts before and the crusaders are scared enough to the point that they use the levant to bring more troops they give John over all command or most if ( in the otl he forced some of them to not squabble and help him on campaign even though they did not betray him they did not help either ) and in this timeline they might out right support him , and the other John and the crusaders states combined and the threat of arlsan could scare antioch to help ,that is the case arslan would have the naval disadvantage and good force with an actual good leader

the crusade could be a stalemate with the only winner being the byzantines at the expense of the turks and the crusaders , a defeat (since if jonh is the glue and he dies all falls apart) or a success there is to much unknowns

you know this migth be an instresting timeline ill add it to the list of potential timelines.

 

[Silver01]

And replying to that, an super successful Rûm resulting from Kiliç Arslan carrying the stick most probably immediately screw the crusaders' situation. Although short-term i think their opportunities to really conquer the byzantines is really not there yet (especially because of the byzantine good track called Komnenian Dynasty), long-term if the Sultanate manages to keep its shit together i think it can be made, you can do it still in the 12th century if Rûm rolls at least a 5/4/6 heir, but then butterflies also go the other way around so it's just as likely that the Komnenos continue in Byzantium so...i might say that a long-term response can only be made with a full-fledged timeline

Ah, also there's another thing, super-successful Rûm that manages to crush the crusaders most probably upgrades into super-successful Rûm that invades Egypt (well, the seljuks were already doing it before the Crusades), the state would be hella powerful but the chances of it collapsing ala Seljuks is as great as its power

there is also the case that if jonh does not die in wars the freak accident that killed him in 1143 does not happen and if we give him his father life span he has 15 more years to work with and maybe manuel having more time instead of becoming attack the turks ands smite them he becomes more calm yeah like i said potential goood timeline.

 

[Talus I of Dixie]

Didn't Arslan's other son, Mesud, actually do a decent job, as did his grandson, Kilij Arslan II, considering the odds against them?

Mesud? Yeah he was quite competent, my point is more the fact that having Malikshah as at least a decent ruler improve considerably Rûm's odds, IOTL Mesud overthrowed Malikshah with help from the Danishmends, so it's likely that ITTL Mesud's line probably won't get to power at all, unless Malikshah's line go really really unlucky. So succession would be much more different than IOTL, just because it would be an entirely different Malikshah we would be talking about.

arslan was a clever person but he did commit several mistakes shown in the first crusade , but yeah I think i favor john just by his early years alone of him killing of the pechenegs and beating hungary beyond the danube but yeah things could happen like in battle John receives an arrow to the neck , while John was energetic he was no fool in fact his strategy was to divide and conquer

in this timeline arslan has a more stable realm and can go against the crusaders with the byzantines being the only real danger here and win making the crusader states squabble and have antioch against the byzantines
how ever he has one big disadvantage success or not he cant really change it being that some parts of the levant where coastal and the italian maritime republics
on the other hand if arslan is to successful and the second crusade starts before and the crusaders are scared enough to the point that they use the levant to bring more troops they give John over all command or most if ( in the otl he forced some of them to not squabble and help him on campaign even though they did not betray him they did not help either ) and in this timeline they might out right support him , and the other John and the crusaders states combined and the threat of arlsan could scare antioch to help ,that is the case arslan would have the naval disadvantage and good force with an actual good leader

the crusade could be a stalemate with the only winner being the byzantines at the expense of the turks and the crusaders , a defeat (since if jonh is the glue and he dies all falls apart) or a success there is to much unknowns

you know this migth be an instresting timeline ill add it to the list of potential timelines.

I agree 100% with you here, it's such a incognita that we can't really put it in simple speculation, full-fledged TL content right here, things can play out nearly the same for both sides and we would have a lot of interesting relationships going on.

there is also the case that if jonh does not die in wars the freak accident that killed him in 1143 does not happen and if we give him his father life span he has 15 more years to work with and maybe manuel having more time instead of becoming attack the turks ands smite them he becomes more calm yeah like i said potential goood timeline.

The thing is that, by the record, John was quite dangerously susceptible to being harmed in battle (for starters, he was wounded against the pechenegs) so i think that the way he ruled with a lot of military campaigns going on, unless he changes the way he do things (including hunting, he apparently was very non-worried about wounds or things like that) he might sooner or later fall in battle or as a result of some wierd accident. But yeah, i think with some more 15 years John would make wonders, although i have my doubts about Manuel eventually calming down, but hey, butterflies!

 

[Silver01]

Mesud? Yeah he was quite competent, my point is more the fact that having Malikshah as at least a decent ruler improve considerably Rûm's odds, IOTL Mesud overthrowed Malikshah with help from the Danishmends, so it's likely that ITTL Mesud's line probably won't get to power at all, unless Malikshah's line go really really unlucky. So succession would be much more different than IOTL, just because it would be an entirely different Malikshah we would be talking about.

I agree 100% with you here, it's such a incognita that we can't really put it in simple speculation, full-fledged TL content right here, things can play out nearly the same for both sides and we would have a lot of interesting relationships going on.

The thing is that, by the record, John was quite dangerously susceptible to being harmed in battle (for starters, he was wounded against the pechenegs) so i think that the way he ruled with a lot of military campaigns going on, unless he changes the way he do things (including hunting, he apparently was very non-worried about wounds or things like that) he might sooner or later fall in battle or as a result of some wierd accident. But yeah, i think with some more 15 years John would make wonders, although i have my doubts about Manuel eventually calming down, but hey, butterflies!

yas you know would you like to work on this timeline?

 

[Talus I of Dixie]

yas you know would you like to work on this timeline?

If i would like? Certainly, i just don't plain go with it because i'm not able to do it right now due to studies difficulting my life, but it's certainly an idea that will be safely stored in my "TL ideas for later" archives, if anyone's interested in taking this up i would be glad to help as well

 

[Silver01]

If i would like? Certainly, i just don't plain go with it because i'm not able to do it right now due to studies difficulting my life, but it's certainly an idea that will be safely stored in my "TL ideas for later" archives, if anyone's interested in taking this up i would be glad to help as well

I would do it after reaching half in my timeline and finishing 2020 would do it in the summer so yeah if you free then it would be nice since you seem to know more Islamic history

 

[Vinization]

The little there is available on wikipedia shows that the Seljuks besieged Nicaea in 1113, while Alexios I was weakened thanks to his old age.

Could they capture it assuming Arslan doesn't die, preventing the civil war that erupted after his death?

 

[Talus I of Dixie]

The little there is available on wikipedia shows that the Seljuks besieged Nicaea in 1113, while Alexios I was weakened thanks to his old age.

Could they capture it assuming Arslan doesn't die, preventing the civil war that erupted after his death?

Actually without Arslan's death it certainly wouldn't have happen at all, this siege of Nicaea was part of Malikshah's campaigns against the byzantines (that he did in order to prove his legitimacy to the post-civil war anatolian turkish chiefs) but in the end it resulted in his downfall after his defeat at the Battle of Philomelion against Alexios. In this scenario Arslan probably would pass the next 10-ish years consolidating his expanded realm in order to leave things as orderly as possible, but after that, as discussed earlier, it all falls upon who would win, John II Komnenos or Kiliç Arslan I, but Arslan capturing Nicaea isn't really out of reach with the civil war reversals don't happening and counting that he manages to eventually defeat John.